credit suisse: ad tech will help tv long term · restaurant group is buying 34 midwestern panera...

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www.spotsndots.com Subscriptions: $350 per year. This publication cannot be distributed beyond the office of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or [email protected] Copyright 2017. The Daily News of TV Sales Friday, July 14, 2017 CREDIT SUISSE: AD TECH WILL HELP TV LONG TERM RATINGS MAY HAVE A DIMINISHED ROLE Is Wall Street missing the big picture on the future of television? The analyst team at Credit Suisse thinks so and in a new report, they detail why they believe TV is actually in a much better position to weather a changing media world than most believe. Many investors currently regard TV advertising ad a structurally declining business, driven by erosion in viewing and competition from digital. But after meeting with several ad tech companies working to change how TV is bought and sold, Credit Suisse analysts say they have even more confidence those “game- changing advances” will put the medium in a “strong position” long-term. Those tech efforts—like the buy-side platform Simulmedia and the sell-side platform Clypdas well as new software and standards, will allow advertisers to buy TV inventory on a more targeted basis. And that should help bring more ad dollars to television in the coming years. “If the TV industry can combine its reach with greater relevance by using technology to improve targeting, the medium will be well-placed to grow its share of the marketing mix over time,” the report says. Most ripe for the picking are direct mail and telephone marketing, which account for over $100 billion of spending today. If there is a loser, Credit Suisse says long-term it could be Nielsen since their ratings may have a “diminished role” in how inventory is bought and sold. After meeting with the ad tech firms, analysts expect Nielsen will still be a data provider but it won’t be the currency. “Nielsen’s position as a critical lynchpin of the TV advertising industry has a finite life,” the report predicts. “Its days as the currency that underlies all transactions—the driver of the company’s pricing power—would at some point come to an end.” Yet change is unlikely to come quickly. Credit Suisse believes ad tech will have “limited impact” in the near term. But marketers don’t seem to be rushing to abandon the tried- and-true either. Analysts were encouraged the broadcast TV networks closed the upfronts with high single-digit CPM increases with a greater volume of inventory sold. That suggests a more solid near-term ad market than investors had been expecting. There’s nothing quite like video. “Advertisers continue to see video as a vital vehicle for conveying messages about their products,” the report says, “but believe there is enormous (waste) in their traditional campaigns.” New technology, such as fully addressable advertising that will tailor spots to individual households, could be a game-changer. Also giving TV a boost is what the analysts say is growing frustration with digital advertising. They cite “long-running advertiser concern” over ad fraud, ROI questions, and concerns their ads could wind up in a risqué digital environment have reached a “tipping point” among advertisers and agencies. ADVERTISER NEWS There’s an initial conference with an administrative judge tomorrow to discuss the Federal Trade Commission’s challenge of a proposed merger of FanDuel and DraftKings. Right after the FTC made its announcement the two suggested they would challenge the refusal in court, but the FanDuel CEO said earlier this week his company is still “evaluating options” for the future……Here’s some potentially good news about retail: Target says it now expects a modest increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, noting that both customer traffic and sales are running ahead of expectations, with profit “above the high end” of its previous forecast……Lithia Motors issued a preliminary second quarter report that may be indicative of how many automotive dealers are doing. Total same-store sales were up in the 2.3-2.6% range with new-vehicle same store sales up 0.5-0.8%, despite same store unit sales down 0.4%. Used vehicle same-store sales were up 3.8-4.1%, with used vehicle unit sales up 4.6%. The biggest gains came from Service, Body & Parts with a same-store gain of 6.8-7.1%......At a time when every news item seems to be piling on to Sears, here’s more bad news for the company: The one-time leader in appliance sales ranked last of five major appliance sellers in J.D. Power’s annual customer satisfaction survey of that industry, its 828 score on a 1,000-point scale trailing even now out-of-business hhgregg. Best Buy scored best with an 857, followed by Lowe’s 840 and Home Depot’s 839. The three most important factors according to Power are: sales staff greets customers promptly, salesperson thanks customer for the purchase, and the appliance display is arranged neatly……Pan American Group, a subsidiary of Flynn Restaurant Group is buying 34 Midwestern Panera stores from Original Bread Company to add to the 96 Paneras it already owns. Parent Flynn is already the largest restaurant franchise operator in the country, with other subsidiaries being the largest Applebee’s franchisee and the third largest Taco Bell owner. In total, Flynn operates 881 restaurants in 30 states……Southeastern Grocers will rebrand some of its Winn-Dixie stores in Florida into its Harveys banner, moving that brand into new parts of the Sunshine State. Late last year Southeastern had moved Harveys into new markets in the Carolinas…… In its annual report on the state of its industry, Beverage Industry magazine notes soft drinks are again experiencing modest volume declines this year, although craft sodas and natural sodas are staving off attrition. While Carbonated Soft Drinks are still a major player in beverages, having been bought by 88% of all American households last year, CSDs’ “share of stomach” has dropped from 22.7% in 2011 to 19.8% last year.

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Page 1: CREDIT SUISSE: AD TECH WILL HELP TV LONG TERM · Restaurant Group is buying 34 Midwestern Panera stores from Original Bread Company to add to the 96 Paneras it already owns. Parent

PAGE 1

www.spotsndots.comSubscriptions: $350 per year.

This publication cannot bedistributed beyond the office

of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or

[email protected] Copyright 2017.The Daily News of TV Sales Friday, July 14, 2017

CREDIT SUISSE: AD TECH WILL HELP TV LONG TERMRATINGS MAY HAVE A DIMINISHED ROLE Is Wall Street missing the big picture on the future of television? The analyst team at Credit Suisse thinks so and in a new report, they detail why they believe TV is actually in a much better position to weather a changing media world than most believe. Many investors currently regard TV advertising ad a structurally declining business, driven by erosion in viewing and competition from digital. But after meeting with several ad tech companies working to change how TV is bought and sold, Credit Suisse analysts say they have even more confidence those “game-changing advances” will put the medium in a “strong position” long-term. Those tech efforts—like the buy-side platform Simulmedia and the sell-side platform Clypd—as well as new software and standards, will allow advertisers to buy TV inventory on a more targeted basis. And that should help bring more ad dollars to television in the coming years. “If the TV industry can combine its reach with greater relevance by using technology to improve targeting, the medium will be well-placed to grow its share of the marketing mix over time,” the report says. Most ripe for the picking are direct mail and telephone marketing, which account for over $100 billion of spending today. If there is a loser, Credit Suisse says long-term it could be Nielsen since their ratings may have a “diminished role” in how inventory is bought and sold. After meeting with the ad tech firms, analysts expect Nielsen will still be a data provider but it won’t be the currency. “Nielsen’s position as a critical lynchpin of the TV advertising industry has a finite life,” the report predicts. “Its days as the currency that underlies all transactions—the driver of the company’s pricing power—would at some point come to an end.” Yet change is unlikely to come quickly. Credit Suisse believes ad tech will have “limited impact” in the near term. But marketers don’t seem to be rushing to abandon the tried-and-true either. Analysts were encouraged the broadcast TV networks closed the upfronts with high single-digit CPM increases with a greater volume of inventory sold. That suggests a more solid near-term ad market than investors had been expecting. There’s nothing quite like video. “Advertisers continue to see video as a vital vehicle for conveying messages about their products,” the report says, “but believe there is enormous (waste) in their traditional campaigns.” New technology, such as fully addressable advertising that will tailor spots to individual households, could be a game-changer. Also giving TV a boost is what the analysts say is growing frustration with digital advertising. They cite “long-running advertiser concern” over ad fraud, ROI questions, and concerns their ads could wind up in a risqué digital environment have reached a “tipping point” among advertisers and agencies.

ADVERTISER NEWS There’s an initial conference with an administrative judge tomorrow to discuss the Federal Trade Commission’s challenge of a proposed merger of FanDuel and DraftKings. Right after the FTC made its announcement the two suggested they would challenge the refusal in court, but the FanDuel CEO said earlier this week his company is still “evaluating options” for the future……Here’s some potentially good news about retail: Target says it now

expects a modest increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, noting that both customer traffic and sales are running ahead of expectations, with profit “above the high end” of its previous forecast……Lithia Motors issued a preliminary second quarter report that may be indicative of how many automotive dealers are doing. Total same-store sales were up in the 2.3-2.6% range with new-vehicle same store

sales up 0.5-0.8%, despite same store unit sales down 0.4%. Used vehicle same-store sales were up 3.8-4.1%, with used vehicle unit sales up 4.6%. The biggest gains came from Service, Body & Parts with a same-store gain of 6.8-7.1%......At a time when every news item seems to be piling on to Sears, here’s more bad news for the company: The one-time leader in appliance sales ranked last of five major appliance sellers in J.D. Power’s annual customer satisfaction survey of that industry, its 828 score on a 1,000-point scale trailing even now out-of-business hhgregg. Best Buy scored best with an 857, followed by Lowe’s 840 and Home Depot’s 839. The three most important factors according to Power are: sales staff greets customers promptly, salesperson thanks customer for the purchase, and the appliance display is arranged neatly……Pan American Group, a subsidiary of Flynn Restaurant Group is buying 34 Midwestern Panera stores from Original Bread Company to add to the 96 Paneras it already owns. Parent Flynn is already the largest restaurant franchise operator in the country, with other subsidiaries being the largest Applebee’s franchisee and the third largest Taco Bell owner. In total, Flynn operates 881 restaurants in 30 states……Southeastern Grocers will rebrand some of its Winn-Dixie stores in Florida into its Harveys banner, moving that brand into new parts of the Sunshine State. Late last year Southeastern had moved Harveys into new markets in the Carolinas……In its annual report on the state of its industry, Beverage Industry magazine notes soft drinks are again experiencing modest volume declines this year, although craft sodas and natural sodas are staving off attrition. While Carbonated Soft Drinks are still a major player in beverages, having been bought by 88% of all American households last year, CSDs’ “share of stomach” has dropped from 22.7% in 2011 to 19.8% last year.

Page 2: CREDIT SUISSE: AD TECH WILL HELP TV LONG TERM · Restaurant Group is buying 34 Midwestern Panera stores from Original Bread Company to add to the 96 Paneras it already owns. Parent

PAGE 2 The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com

NETWORK NEWS The third annual U.S. National Special of WE Day will air commercial free on CBS Friday, August 4th at 8 PM (ET). The special will highlight some of the most important social issues facing America and the world today, including homelessness, poverty, inner city violence, and social activism. WE Day unites likeminded individuals and provides a platform for youth and families to create change in their communities. The special will be hosted by Selena Gomez and will feature a star-studded lineup of speakers and performers including Alessia Cara, Josh Gad, Tyrese Gibson, Alicia Keys, Demi Lovato, and many more. In addition, the broadcast will feature special appearances by celebrities including James Franco, Evan Goldberg, Hannah Simone, Seth Rogan and Oprah Winfrey……ABC has announced the premiere date for its summer series Bachelor in Paradise. The show’s season debut will air over two nights kicking off on Monday, August 14th at 8 PM (ET) with the second part airing on Tuesday, August 15th at 8 PM (ET). This season of Bachelor in Paradise made headlines recently as Warner Bros. Television suspended production for a short time to investigate allegations of misconduct. Following the investigation, Warner Bros. concluded that no misconduct occurred and production resumed. Viewers of the show will have a front-row seat for the highly anticipated wedding of Bachelor in Paradise Season 3 couple, Carly Waddell and Evan Bass……Telemundo will present a sneak preview of its plans for the Spanish language coverage and promotion of the upcoming FIFA 2018 World Cup in Russia. The NBCUniversal-owned Spanish-language network will make the presentation at the 15h Annual Hispanic Television Summit on Thursday, October 19th at the Sheraton New York Hotel....In Cable News, AMC’s The Walking Dead has become the most prosperous drama ever to air on cable television. An article in The Hollywood Reporter notes that the zombie drama has likely produced more than $1 billion in gross receipts based on an analysis of the newly released court documents that shed unprecedented light on the economics of the show and Hollywood in general. The lawsuit involves Frank Darabont, the Oscar-nominated writer and director of the Shawshank Redemption, who adapted Robert Kirkman’s graphic novel for the screen and AMC Networks. The documents revealed thousands of pages of summary judgment arguments, depositions, redacted profit participation statements, expert testimony, and even details about the financials of other AMC shows like Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and Better Call Saul. “This lawsuit is also about AMC’s refusal to share the unprecedented success of the show with the people who actually created that success for them, and about AMC’s self-dealing and corporate greed,” said Darabont in his affidavit.... Meanwhile, production on Season 8 of The Walking Dead has been halted temporarily in the wake of a stuntman dying from injuries in an on-set fall. Sources tell Deadline that stuntman John Bernecker suffered a serious head injury after falling almost 30 feet to a concrete floor. He later died at the hospital.

AVAILS New Media Digital Advertising Specialist - Raleigh, NC: We’re seeking person to manage the media buying and execution for a number of different clients and campaigns. This position will be responsible for set up, management and optimization of accounts within the DFP, Google AdWords, programmatic and Facebook advertising interfaces, among others. 1-2 years of digital ad operations experience. All candidates must APPLY HERE. EOE M/F

All Capitol Broadcasting Company properties are tobacco free. CBC participates in E-Verify. Grow your sales potential and expand your career opportunities by joining the sales team of the dominant station with greater products to sell. WWLP-22News (NBC), a Nexstar television station in Springfield, MA, has a full-time opening for a television Account Executive. The qualified candidate will be responsible for

selling comprehensive media solutions to one or more local/regional/national accounts in a geographic territory to achieve sales targets and maximize revenues. Please CLICK HERE for more info or to apply. EOE. Edward R. Murrow Award Winning Broadcaster WJZY/WMYT-TV, the FOX O&O in Charlotte, NC (Market #22) is seeking a Research & Programming Director. Among other duties, this position will analyze and evaluate all audience measurement systems and all ratings data for internal & external use; Prepare rating book breakouts; Create Qualitative profiles and positioning pieces for Sales, News and Programming. 4-year degree (B.A) preferred. Minimum 2 years’ related sales experience required. CLICK HERE for more info or to apply now. EOE/M/F/Veteran/Disabled. WPBF 25, the Hearst owned ABC Affiliate in the beautiful West Palm Beach market, has an incredible opportunity for you! WPBF 25 is looking for a dynamic sales superstar to join our phenomenal sales team. The ideal candidate will bring both Broadcast and Digital sales experience and will possess the drive and ability to thrive in a fast paced, highly competitive market. Your creativity, originality, and passion for developing new business will be encouraged and rewarded! CLICK HERE to apply. EOE

KANTAR EXPANDS CROSS-PLATFORM DATA Kantar Media has announced the expansion of its cross-platform ad intelligence capabilities with the availability of programmatic advertising data. This initiative is part of Kantar Media’s continued innovations in digital ad monitoring. The expanded data will provide more detailed insight into digital ad buying channels, including mediator and deployment chain information for ad impressions and spend for digital ads purchased on a programmatic basis. The data, covering millions of publisher pages, includes digital ads monitored on display, mobile and online video platforms.

7/14/2017

Jimmy Kimmel

The Bachelor is the show that answers the question:

How much wine do you have to drink until the guy

making out with 20 different women seems like he’d make a good husband.

Page 3: CREDIT SUISSE: AD TECH WILL HELP TV LONG TERM · Restaurant Group is buying 34 Midwestern Panera stores from Original Bread Company to add to the 96 Paneras it already owns. Parent

The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com PAGE 3

‘PRIME DAY” SCORES BIG Amazon’s third annual Prime Day (actually 30 hours) earlier this week generated at least $1 billion in sales from shoppers in 13 countries. Amazon reported the day was its biggest ever, beating both Black Friday and Cyber Monday last year, and it also bragged that more new members joined its Prime service than on any single day in Amazon history. The biggest seller was the Echo Dot, which was on sale for 30% off, and Amazon sold seven times more Echo devices than it had done a year ago on Prime Day.

INFINITI SALES STAFFS BEST Once advertising and other efforts bring potential car buyers into a dealership, how well does each brand’s salespersons convert those prospects into sales? The 2017 Pied Piper Prospect Satisfaction Index found that for the second year in a row Infiniti sales staffs led in customer satisfaction and along with Lexus and Mercedes, the top three were well ahead of all other brands. Other leaders were Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Audi, Lincoln, Ram and Subaru. The study also revealed a trade-in can change the terms of any potential deal, perhaps even becoming an obstacle to a sale, and many salespeople fail to ask about a trade-in at some dealerships. It also confirmed the internet has been a game-changer in car sales, as 90% of shoppers have gathered information online before coming into the dealership. “You’re seeing the customer all the way down the purchase funnel in many instances,” Pied Piper’s CEO said. “The salesperson has to act as if this customer is the most important person to walk in the door because in this case they are. They’re ready to buy.”

DELOITTE: B-T-S WILL REACH $27 BILLION Parents of children in grades K-12 will spend an average $501 per student on back-to-school shopping this year according to a new projection just issued by Deloitte. But mass merchants and off-price retailers are expected to get the “A’s” in this shopping season, while traditional department stores and specialty clothing retailers will get much lower grades. The advisory firm is strongly suggesting that retailers do not wait very long if they hope to get a strong share of the business—in fact, 60% of shoppers will start before August and those shoppers will spend an average of $532, 16% more than the remaining 40% that start shopping in August or later. Regional differences in school start dates impact shopping trends, which helps lead to the highest per student spending in the Southern region, an average of $554 per student. In total, 55% of parents’ dollars are expected to go to clothing, with 20% towards school supplies, 14% to computers and hardware and 9% to electronic gadgets.

EMMY NOMINEES - HBO LEADS THE PACK 22 for HBO and about the same number for Saturday Night Live, and various SNL performers. One reporter called it the Trump Bump. If you missed yesterday’s announcement, find a full list of nominees HERE. The Primetime Emmy Award will air on CBS Sunday, 9/17.

BUSINESS BYTES We’ve heard the term “real-estate advisory firm” frequently lately and many of them have been quite busy, renegotiating retailers’ leases with mall landlords. With all the hundreds of store closings we’ve reported on in the first half of the year, these consultants have been called into play as agents of the retailers in dealings to “wiggle out of mall leases” per The Wall Street Journal. The paper notes that landlords often make their own assessment of the tenant looking at its sales at the particular location compared to the retailer’s national average and the category’s national

average. Landlords of weaker locations that fear they’d be unable to attract another tenant are of course more likely to amend leases but an exec at a firm that owns malls and shopping centers told the paper “Some retailers we’re working with…we’d politely say go ahead and order the moving truck.” Some companies, however, may not be in a position to play hardball. Spirit Realty suffered through a first quarter in which tenants hhgregg, Gander

Mountain and Gordmans all filed for bankruptcy while a movie-theater operator and two restaurant operators defaulted on rent payments. One analyst later said Spirit suffered a “black eye, bloody nose, and broken limbs.”

THIS AND THAT Advertising Age reports the National Football League distributed $7.8 billion dollars to its 32 teams last year, about 10% higher than the year before, with much of the increase coming from higher TV rights deals. (We’ve done the math for you—it works out to $243,375,000 per team). The total does include other revenue sources such as league sponsorships, licensing and merchandise sales, but Ad Age attributes a large part of the increase to more revenue coming from the Thursday Night Football package with CBS and NBC....Nielsen has signed a new deal with Northwest Broadcasting’s FOX affiliates KCYU and KFFX, serving Yakima, Wash., as well as the Tri-Cities area. In addition, the company has signed a deal for their Telemundo affiliate to receive Nielsen Local Ratings

7/14/2017

FunnyTweeter.com

My friend is a meteorologist so when he wants to hang

out I tell him there’s a 100% chance I’ll be there and then

I don’t show up.

WEDNESDAY NIELSEN RATINGS - LIVE + SAME DAY