credit strengths - rollins college

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U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 2 October 2020 Contacts Susan E Shaffer +1.212.553.4132 VP-Sr Credit Officer [email protected] Dennis M. Gephardt +1.212.553.7209 VP-Sr Credit Officer [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Rollins College, FL Update to credit analysis Summary Rollins College 's (A2 stable) very good credit quality reflects its solid cash flow supported by diversified revenue sources and favorable philanthropic support, contributing to its very good strategic positioning. Though the college operates in a highly competitive student market for traditional undergraduates, it benefits from broader programmatic offerings and scale as well as lower reliance on student-driven revenue relative to typical liberal arts colleges. Strengthened operating cash flow and a conservative debt structure partially mitigate a moderately high and growing debt burden relative to revenues as the college makes strategic investments that will further enhance its attractive campus. Credit challenges include comparatively thin liquidity, high financial leverage and lagging financial resource growth relative to peers. Exhibit 1 Growing debt relative to operating revenue, with depressed operating cash flow in fiscal 2020 as Rolliins adapts operations to near-term pressures 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 unaudtied Pro forma x Millions Operating revenue (left axis) Total debt (left axis) Operating cash flow margin (right axis) Pro forma includes proposed Series 2020 debt and $20 million bank loan Source: Moody's Investors Service Credit strengths » Attractive campus near the growing city of Orlando with a variety of programs and moderate enrollment scale » Solid operating performance, partially mitigating moderately high and growing debt » Consistently healthy donor support, with three-year average annual gift revenue of $28 million » Favorable revenue diversity aided by successful hotel and commercial real estate, reducing reliance on student-driven charges

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Page 1: Credit strengths - Rollins College

U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

CREDIT OPINION2 October 2020

Contacts

Susan E Shaffer +1.212.553.4132VP-Sr Credit [email protected]

Dennis M. Gephardt +1.212.553.7209VP-Sr Credit [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Rollins College, FLUpdate to credit analysis

SummaryRollins College's (A2 stable) very good credit quality reflects its solid cash flow supported bydiversified revenue sources and favorable philanthropic support, contributing to its very goodstrategic positioning. Though the college operates in a highly competitive student marketfor traditional undergraduates, it benefits from broader programmatic offerings and scaleas well as lower reliance on student-driven revenue relative to typical liberal arts colleges.Strengthened operating cash flow and a conservative debt structure partially mitigate amoderately high and growing debt burden relative to revenues as the college makes strategicinvestments that will further enhance its attractive campus. Credit challenges includecomparatively thin liquidity, high financial leverage and lagging financial resource growthrelative to peers.

Exhibit 1

Growing debt relative to operating revenue, with depressed operating cash flow in fiscal 2020 asRolliins adapts operations to near-term pressures

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 unaudtied Pro forma

x

Millio

ns

Operating revenue (left axis) Total debt (left axis) Operating cash flow margin (right axis)

Pro forma includes proposed Series 2020 debt and $20 million bank loanSource: Moody's Investors Service

Credit strengths

» Attractive campus near the growing city of Orlando with a variety of programs andmoderate enrollment scale

» Solid operating performance, partially mitigating moderately high and growing debt

» Consistently healthy donor support, with three-year average annual gift revenue of $28million

» Favorable revenue diversity aided by successful hotel and commercial real estate,reducing reliance on student-driven charges

Page 2: Credit strengths - Rollins College

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

Credit challenges

» Moderately high and growing financial leverage, with pro forma debt to operating revenue of 1.6x compared to a peer median of0.7x

» Significantly lower cash and investment growth relative to peers, with five-year growth of 3% compared to 18% median growth forA2-rated peers

» Modest liquidity position and high proportion of permanently restricted financial resources, limiting financial flexibility

» Competitive student market, evidenced by softening selectivity and matriculation

Rating outlookThe stable outlook incorporates expectations of ongoing student market demand. The outlook is predicated on operating performancein fiscal 2021 being stronger than 2020, maintenance of unrestricted liquidity and no additional debt.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» Above peer growth of spendable financial reserves with significant increase in unrestricted monthly liquidity

» Sustained improvement to operating cash flow and stronger debt service coverage

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» Inability to achieve at least 14% operating cash flow margin (in line with fiscal 2019)

» Weakened liquidity or inability to achieve financial resource growth consistent with competitive peers

» Additional borrowing given already comparatively high leverage levels

Key indicators

Exhibit 2ROLLINS COLLEGE, FL

2016 2017 2018 20192020

unauditedPro forma

Median: A

Rated Private

Universities

Total FTE Enrollment 3,072 3,135 3,026 3,018 not available not available 4,695

Operating Revenue ($000) 140,803 141,443 145,104 146,372 140,451 140,451 213,591

Annual Change in Operating Revenue (%) 5.1 0.5 2.6 0.9 -4.0 -4.0 3.8

Total Cash & Investments ($000) 342,178 368,163 382,500 371,238 367,971 367,971 427,133

Total Debt ($000) 123,407 139,058 138,098 140,611 190,326 224,158 150,817

Spendable Cash & Investments to Total Debt (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.9

Spendable Cash & Investments to Operating Expenses (x) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4

Monthly Days Cash on Hand (x) 168 205 190 220 172 172 350

Operating Cash Flow Margin (%) 15.8 14.6 13.4 14.2 12.1 12.1 14.2

Total Debt to Cash Flow (x) 5.5 6.7 7.1 6.8 11.2 13.2 5.1

Annual Debt Service Coverage (x) 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.9

Fiscal 2020 and Pro forma Monthly Days Cash on Hand is estimated; pro forma does not include proposed liquidity borrowing. Pro forma includes proposed Series 2020 bonds andestimated fiscal 2022 debt service. Medians data is for fiscal 2019.Source: Moody's Investors Service

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 2 October 2020 Rollins College, FL: Update to credit analysis

Page 3: Credit strengths - Rollins College

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

ProfileRollins College is a private comprehensive liberal arts college established in 1885 and enrolling over 3,000 full-time equivalentstudents for fall 2019. The college is located in Winter Park, Florida, approximately five miles northeast of Orlando. Rollins is primarily atraditional undergraduate institution but also offers bachelors and masters evening degree programs designed for working adults and agraduate business school.

Detailed credit considerationsMarket profile: diverse programs with solid demand despite strong student market competitionRollins College's attractive campus near Orlando and academic programs will drive sustained and solid student demand, particularlyfor its primary undergraduate day program. The college has a unique student enrollment mix, which is beneficial in weathering cyclicalenrollment trends. Approximately 3,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) students have enrolled in fall 2020 (preliminary data), slightlydown from prior years as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Roughly 71% are traditional undergraduate students, 21% are eveningstudents in undergraduate or masters programs, and 8% are graduate business students.

Net tuition revenue growth per student will remain in the 1%-3% range, reflecting moderate pricing power in a competitive studentmarket, though the discount rate is increasing. While Rollins benefits from favorable demographics and the vibrant, growing Orlandoarea, low tuition at Florida's public universities heightens student market pressure. Though approximately half of students are fromoutside Florida, slight softening of matriculation and yield rates reflect the competitive environment.

Operating performance: solid operating performance to continue, with some fiscal 2020 weakeningOperating performance will remain solid, with operating cash flow of 12% (unaudited) in fiscal 2020 expected to improve to at leastprior years' 13%-15% range over the near term, supporting moderately high debt service of almost 8% of total expenses for fiscal 2020and increasing slightly beginning in fiscal 2022. Favorably, Rollins has reduced its endowment spending rate from a high 7.5% to justover 5% of a trailing average and continues to work toward spending rate goal of 4.5%. In addition, the college made a significant 15%reduction in total employees in late fiscal 2020. While this created a modest expense increase in fiscal 2020, it will result in ongoingcost savings that will provide budgetary flexibility beyond the pandemic. Based on current estimates, fiscal 2021 operating performancewill be in line with or stronger than fiscal 2020, reflecting management's commitment to financial sustainability.

Operations of the Alfond Inn, consolidated within the colleges financial statements, are a primary contributor to revenue diversity. Evenwith reduced occupancy in fiscal 2020, gross revenue from the inn were over $14 million in fiscal 2020. The inn's operating surplusessupport student financial aid, and Rollins further benefits from interest payments from the inn's debt service on a $20 million internalloan and from its other commercial properties. Favorably, planned expansion of the inn, to be funded through philanthropy, will furtherdiversify revenue sources.

Wealth and liquidity: healthy overall wealth levels though growth lags peersWhile overall wealth is healthy, Rollins has a relatively high proportion (57%) of permanently restricted financial resources, limitingfinancial flexibility. Spendable cash and investments of $157 million cushion expenses by 1.1x compared to peer median of 1.3x.

Strategic investments and multiple years of elevated endowment spending prior to fiscal 2015 have resulted in considerably slowergrowth in reserves relative to peers, at just 3% compared to a peer median of 18%. With improved cash flow and continued strongdonor support, however, there is potential upside for stronger growth in the future. Average annual gift revenue has doubled to over$27 million in fiscal 2019 and 2020 through a $275 million capital campaign, with $222 million raised so far.

Investment portfolio oversight, management and asset allocation are commensurate with similarly sized endowments. Investmentreturns for fiscal 2020 (May 31 fiscal year end) were 2.7%, with total cash and investments of $368 million.

The college's commercial properties and hotel are not reflected in spendable cash and investments. Values are well above the bookvalue of $56 million reflected in the financial statements.

LiquidityMonthly liquidity of an estimated $61 million for fiscal 2021 translates to 172 days cash on hand, weaker than the A2 peer median of348 days and limiting financial flexibility. With unfunded commitments of $27 million and limited other calls on liquidity, monthly

3 2 October 2020 Rollins College, FL: Update to credit analysis

Page 4: Credit strengths - Rollins College

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

liquidity is sufficient at the rating level. In addition, the planned debt transaction will include $20 million of taxable funds that canprovide additional liquidity if needed.

Leverage: elevated and growing debt burdenThe college's debt burden is elevated and will increase to pro forma $224 million with planned new debt, including some refinancing ofbank debt, proposed Series 2020 bonds and a $20 million bank loan. These plans are in line with prior expectations, with the exceptionof $20 million that will serve as additional liquidity over the near term and can be repaid or used for other purposes over the mediumterm. With the proposed transactions, pro forma debt to operating revenue will rise to a high 1.6x compared to a peer median of0.7x. Spendable cash and investments will cover pro forma debt by 0.7x, also weak relative to peers. The college has no material debtcapacity at the current rating level without offsetting revenue and financial reserve growth.

While financial reserve growth has been very weak compared to peers, Rollins is in the midst of a period of significant capitalinvestment, with over $100 million invested in plant over the past three fiscal years. Projects in progress or completed includerenovations to an existing building to provide a renewed student center, a residential complex that adds 400 beds in a multi-phaseproject, a black box theater, and infrastructure improvements.

Debt structureThe debt is fixed rate with generally level annual amortization of aggregate pro forma indebtedness in the $11-$12 million rangebeginning in fiscal 2022. Debt service will be lower in fiscal 2021, at $7 million, providing additional short-term flexibility.

Rated Series 2010 and 2012 bonds as well as unrated private bank placements include various debt service coverage tests, rangingfrom 1.05x to 1.15x at the end of each fiscal year. Failure to adhere to these requirement would not lead to acceleration, but the collegewould be required to hire a consultant. Fiscal 2020 coverage is estimated at 1.6x, still sufficient but down from 4.3x in fiscal 2019.

Legal securityAll bonds are a general obligation of the college.

Debt-related derivativesRollins has an amortizing orphaned swap with a notional amount of $8.6 million. There are no collateral posting requirements,reducing the potential related risks. The swap market value was a liability to the college of approximately $2.3 million as of May 21,2020.

Pensions and OPEBThe college has very limited retirement benefit exposure through its defined contribution plan as the board determines thecontribution amounts. Plan expenses were a manageable 4% of total expenses for fiscal 2020. The college does not offerpostretirement health benefits (OPEB).

ESG considerationsEnvironmentalAccording to Moody’s affiliate 427, Rollins’ location in Winter Park, Florida, hurricanes post the most significant environmental risk.Heat stress exposure is high, and water and rainfall stress are also material environmental risks. The college, like most higher educationinstitutions in Florida, has established action plans in place that help mitigate some environmental risk. Investment in infrastructureand plant, including lakefront facilities, provides additional health and safety benefits in the event of weather stress.

SocialWe regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public healthand safety. To offset revenue losses in fiscal 2020, Rollins made expense reductions that resulted in a very modest operating deficit,including costs associated with restructuring. The elimination of 15% of total positions, including some faculty, and conservativebudgeting will favorably impact fiscal 2021 results. Even with some potential enrollment fluctuation and reduced auxiliary, gift andhotel revenue, fiscal 2021 results are currently expected to be at least breakeven, with potential for surplus operations. Students havereturned to campus for the fall semester, with most courses being held in person, following health and safety protocols. With additionalliquidity provided through the planned transaction, we expect Rollins to manage through the pandemic with minimal use of reserves.

4 2 October 2020 Rollins College, FL: Update to credit analysis

Page 5: Credit strengths - Rollins College

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

GovernanceThe college's senior leadership and board have defined strategic priorities and have aligned capital and fundraising plans accordingly.Ongoing capital investment will benefit the student experience, improve infrastructure and further diversify revenue, positivelycontributing to the college's very good strategic positioning.

Rating methodology and scorecard factorsThe Higher Education rating methodology includes a scorecard that summarizes the factors that are generally most important tohigher education credit profiles. Because the scorecard is a summary and may not include every consideration in the credit analysisfor a specific issuer, a scorecard-indicated outcome may or may not match an assigned rating. We assess strategic positioning on aqualitative basis, as described in the methodology.

Exhibit 3

Rollins College, FL

Scorecard Factors and Sub-factors Value Score

Factor 1: Market Profile (30%)

Scope of Operations (Operating Revenue) ($000) 140,451 A2

Reputation and Pricing Power (Annual Change in Operating Revenue) (%) (4.0) B2

Strategic Positioning A A

Factor 2: Operating Performance (25%)

Operating Results (Operating Cash Flow Margin) (%) 12.1 A1

Revenue Diversity (Maximum Single Contribution) (%) 59.9 A2

Factor 3: Wealth & Liquidity (25%)

Total Wealth (Total Cash & Investments) ($000) 387,971 A2

Operating Reserve (Spendable Cash & Investments to Operating Expenses) (x) 1.1 A3

Liquidity (Monthly Days Cash on Hand) 172 Baa1

Factor 4: Leverage (20%)

Financial Leverage (Spendable Cash & Investments to Total Debt) (x) 0.7 Baa1

Debt Affordability (Total Debt to Cash Flow) (x) 13.2 Baa2

Scorecard-Indicated Outcome A3

Assigned Rating A2Data is based on most recent fiscal year available. Debt may include pro forma data for new debt issued or proposed to be issued after the close of the fiscal year.

For non-US issuers, nominal figures are in US dollars consistent with the Higher Education Methodology.

Scorecard uses unaudited fiscal 2020 data and proposed borrowings, with estimated Monthly Days Cash on Hand excluding proposed liquidity borrowingSource: Moody's Investors Service

5 2 October 2020 Rollins College, FL: Update to credit analysis

Page 6: Credit strengths - Rollins College

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

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6 2 October 2020 Rollins College, FL: Update to credit analysis

Page 7: Credit strengths - Rollins College

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

7 2 October 2020 Rollins College, FL: Update to credit analysis