credit markets update - kpmg · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion,...

17
Credit Markets Update December 31, 2017

Upload: others

Post on 05-Sep-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

Credit Markets Update December 31, 2017

Page 2: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

2

Credit Markets Update as of December 31, 2017We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the fourth calendar quarter ending December 31, 2017 to our clients and friends:

— Overall, credit market fundamentals remained healthy in the fourth quarter, as leveraged loan and high yield bond volume remained strong with terms continuing to favor issuers. 2017 was the busiest year ever for leveraged loans lead by M&A and repricing activity

— Newly issued leveraged loan volume in the fourth quarter of 2017 stood at $124 billion, down from the blockbuster 1st quarter of 2017. On an annual basis, 2017 new-issue volume increased versus prior year, up 34.8% at $645 billion versus $478 billion in 2016

— New-issue covenant-lite loan volume increased to $375 billion in 2017, a 53.0% increase from the previous year total of $245 billion

— Number of LBO transactions and volume fell by 26.7% and 27.0%, respectively, from the fourth quarter of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers are up 44.8% and 11.3%, respectively, over 2016

— Purchase price multiples for middle market LBOs increased to 11.6x in 2017 from 10.2x in the previous year and continued to remain above the levels of 8.5x – 9.5x seen historically

— Debt multiples of middle market and large corporate LBO loans rose to 5.5x and 5.8x in 2017 from 5.3x and 5.5x in the prior year, respectively

— Equity contributions to LBOs increased to 41.3% of the purchase price in 2017

— Second lien loan issuance volume decreased to $4 billion in the fourth quarter, lowest since the fourth quarter of 2016. Full year 2017 volume was 149.1% higher as compared to 2016

— The U.S. middle market ended 2017 on a strong note with $9.2 billion in syndicated transactions of $350 million or less in the fourth quarter of 2017 which was up 11% from the fourth quarter of 2016. Total volume in all of 2017 was $38 billion, the most since 2014

- Demand for middle market deals pushed the private debt asset class to its most successful fundraising year ever in 2017, with over $180 billion raised

— High yield bond issuance volume increased in the fourth quarter and full year 2017 to $68 billion and $276 billion, respectively, from $47 billion and $229 billion in the corresponding quarter a year ago and the previous year, respectively

— High yield bond pricing increased to 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2017 from 5.9% in the last quarter. For full year 2017, pricing was 6.3%, down 255 bps from 2016

— Flows into high yield bond funds remained negative in the fourth quarter with outflow exceeding the inflow by $9 billion

— Funds flows into leveraged loan funds increased to $31 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017 from $29 billion in the previous quarter

— CLO volume increased to $118 billion in 2017, up 63% from $72 billion in 2016, and spreads tightened to L+109

— Distress indicators eased during the quarter, with the dollar amount and number of facilities of all outstanding first lien loans trading in the secondary market at prices of L+1000 or greater remaining flat at 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively

— Percentage of leveraged loans in default or in bankruptcy fell to 1.1% in 2017 from 1.6% last year, marking improvements in credit fundamentals

Page 3: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

3

Leveraged Loans

Total Volume: $645B Total Volume: $124B

148186188

84 7847 55

4411 1616 18 27

4366

5472

141120

5362

11588

126137

189164

127127

168159

134

67

94

140113

7491128 141

119

210166

145124

$0B

$50B

$100B

$150B

$200B

$250B

4Q'0

61Q

'07

2Q'0

73Q

'07

4Q'0

71Q

'08

2Q'0

83Q

'08

4Q'0

81Q

'09

2Q'0

93Q

'09

4Q'0

91Q

'10

2Q'1

03Q

'10

4Q'1

01Q

'11

2Q'1

13Q

'11

4Q'1

11Q

'12

2Q'1

23Q

'12

4Q'1

21Q

'13

2Q'1

33Q

'13

4Q'1

31Q

'14

2Q'1

43Q

'14

4Q'1

41Q

'15

2Q'1

53Q

'15

4Q'1

51Q

'16

2Q'1

63Q

'16

4Q'1

61Q

'17

2Q'1

73Q

'17

4Q'1

7

New Issue Leveraged Loan Volume - Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional Pro Rata

$480 $535

$157$77

$236$377

$466$607

$528$423 $478

$645

$0B$140B$280B$420B$560B$700B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

New Issue Leveraged Loan Volume - Annual ($bn)

Institutional Pro Rata

Refinancing, 40%

M&A, 28%

LBO, 17%

Recap, 8%

Others, 7%

Leveraged Loan Issuance by Purpose - 2017

Refinancing, 43%

M&A, 26%

Recap, 12%

LBO, 11%

Others, 8%

Leveraged Loan Issuance by Purpose - 4Q'17

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

$24$97 $3 $3 $8

$57 $98 $262 $237 $178$245

$375

75.0%

0.0%16.0%32.0%48.0%64.0%80.0%

$0B$80B

$160B$240B$320B$400B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

New-Issue Covenant-Lite Loans ($bn)

Volume Percent of all Institutional loans

Page 4: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

4

Leveraged Loans (continued)

225

239

L+100

L+170

L+240

L+310

L+380

L+450

4Q'0

61Q

'07

2Q'0

73Q

'07

4Q'0

71Q

'08

2Q'0

83Q

'08

4Q'0

81Q

'09

2Q'0

93Q

'09

4Q'0

91Q

'10

2Q'1

03Q

'10

4Q'1

01Q

'11

2Q'1

13Q

'11

4Q'1

11Q

'12

2Q'1

23Q

'12

4Q'1

21Q

'13

2Q'1

33Q

'13

4Q'1

31Q

'14

2Q'1

43Q

'14

4Q'1

41Q

'15

2Q'1

53Q

'15

4Q'1

51Q

'16

2Q'1

63Q

'16

4Q'1

61Q

'17

2Q'1

73Q

'17

4Q'1

7

New-Issue First Lien Spreads BB/BB - Quarterly

Pro Rata Institutional

375366

L+150

L+230

L+310

L+390

L+470

L+550

4Q'0

61Q

'07

2Q'0

73Q

'07

4Q'0

71Q

'08

2Q'0

83Q

'08

4Q'0

81Q

'09

2Q'0

93Q

'09

4Q'0

91Q

'10

2Q'1

03Q

'10

4Q'1

01Q

'11

2Q'1

13Q

'11

4Q'1

11Q

'12

2Q'1

23Q

'12

4Q'1

21Q

'13

2Q'1

33Q

'13

4Q'1

31Q

'14

2Q'1

43Q

'14

4Q'1

41Q

'15

2Q'1

53Q

'15

4Q'1

51Q

'16

2Q'1

63Q

'16

4Q'1

61Q

'17

2Q'1

73Q

'17

4Q'1

7

New-Issue First Lien Spreads B+/B - Quarterly

Pro Rata Institutional

7585

L+0

L+40

L+80

L+120

L+160

L+200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average Spread Per Unit of Leverage (SPU) on LBO’s

Large Corp. Middle Market

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 5: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

5

Leveraged Loans – Middle Market

Total Volume: $13B Total Volume: $2BSource: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & DataNote: Middle market refers to companies with EBITDA of $50 million or less

$34

$29

$8$5

$11$14

$10$13 $15

$10 $9$13

$0B

$8B

$16B

$24B

$32B

$40B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Leveraged Loan Volume- Annual ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$8 $8

$13

$5$3

$4$2 $1

$0 $1 $1 $1$2 $2

$4$2

$3$5 $5

$3$2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $3

$4$3

$4$5

$3$2

$4$3

$1$2 $2

$1

$4 $4$3

$5

$2

$0B

$3B

$6B

$9B

$12B

$15B

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

Leveraged Loan Volume- Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

LBO, 52%Refinancing,

43%

M&A, 5%

Total New-Issue Volume by Purpose - 4Q'17

LBO, 53%

Refinancing, 24%

M&A, 13%

Recap, 7%

Others, 3%

Total New-Issue Volume by Purpose - 2017

Page 6: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

6

LBO Summary

$39$29

0

16

32

48

64

80

$0B

$32B

$64B

$96B

$128B

$160B

4Q'0

61Q

'07

2Q'0

73Q

'07

4Q'0

71Q

'08

2Q'0

83Q

'08

4Q'0

81Q

'09

2Q'0

93Q

'09

4Q'0

91Q

'10

2Q'1

03Q

'10

4Q'1

01Q

'11

2Q'1

13Q

'11

4Q'1

11Q

'12

2Q'1

23Q

'12

4Q'1

21Q

'13

2Q'1

33Q

'13

4Q'1

31Q

'14

2Q'1

43Q

'14

4Q'1

41Q

'15

2Q'1

53Q

'15

4Q'1

51Q

'16

2Q'1

63Q

'16

4Q'1

61Q

'17

2Q'1

73Q

'17

4Q'1

7

Num

ber o

f Dea

ls

Volu

me

($bn

)

LBO Transaction Volume - Quarterly ($bn)

8.4x 9.7x

9.1x

7.7x 8.5x 8.8x 8.7x 8.8x

9.7x 10.3x 10.0x

10.6x

0.0x

2.4x

4.8x

7.2x

9.6x

12.0x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average Purchase Price Multiple - All LBOs

Senior Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA Others

8.1x9.3x

8.3x

6.6x

8.4x 8.2x 7.9x8.8x

9.6x10.7x 10.2x

11.6x

0.0x

2.4x

4.8x

7.2x

9.6x

12.0x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average Purchase Price Multiple – Middle Market LBOs(1)

Senior Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA Others

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data(1) Middle market refers to companies with EBITDA of $50 million or less

Page 7: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

7

LBO Summary (continued)

5.4x

6.2x

4.9x

4.0x 4.7x

5.2x 5.3x 5.4x 5.8x 5.7x 5.5x 5.8x

0.0x

1.3x

2.6x

3.9x

5.2x

6.5x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average Debt Multiples of Large Corporate LBO Loans(1)

FLD/EBITDA SLD/EBITDA Other Sr Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA

4.7x

5.6x

4.5x

3.3x

4.2x 4.3x 4.5x 4.8x5.3x 5.3x 5.3x 5.5x

0.0x

1.2x

2.4x

3.6x

4.8x

6.0x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average Debt Multiples of Middle-Market LBO Loans(2)

FLD/EBITDA SLD/EBITDA Other Sr Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA

31.1% 30.9%

38.9%

45.7%41.4%

38.0% 37.7%35.6% 37.0%

40.5% 40.8% 41.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Equity Contribution - All LBOs

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data(1) Large corporate refers to companies with EBITDA of more than $50 million.(2) Middle market refers to companies with EBITDA of $50 million or less.

Page 8: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

8

Second-Lien Loans

$28 $30

$3 $2$5 $7

$18

$29

$37

$11 $10

$25

$0B

$8B

$16B

$24B

$32B

$40B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Second-Lien Loan New-Issue Volume - Annual ($bn)

$10$11

$14

$2 $2$1 $1 $1 $0 $0$0

$1$0 $1 $1 $0

$3$1

$4

$1$0

$4$3 $4

$6$5

$11

$6 $7

$12$13

$8

$4$2

$3$4

$1 $1 $1

$3$5

$7

$5

$10

$4

$0B

$3B

$6B

$9B

$12B

$15B

4Q'0

61Q

'07

2Q'0

73Q

'07

4Q'0

71Q

'08

2Q'0

83Q

'08

4Q'0

81Q

'09

2Q'0

93Q

'09

4Q'0

91Q

'10

2Q'1

03Q

'10

4Q'1

01Q

'11

2Q'1

13Q

'11

4Q'1

11Q

'12

2Q'1

23Q

'12

4Q'1

21Q

'13

2Q'1

33Q

'13

4Q'1

31Q

'14

2Q'1

43Q

'14

4Q'1

41Q

'15

2Q'1

53Q

'15

4Q'1

51Q

'16

2Q'1

63Q

'16

4Q'1

61Q

'17

2Q'1

73Q

'17

4Q'1

7

Second Lien Loan New-Issue Volume - Quarterly ($bn)

676 659

1,069

1,480

1,0621,085 1,064928 898

996 968

829

L+0

L+300

L+600

L+900

L+1200

L+1500

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Average New Issue Second-Lien Spreads

LIBOR Floor Upfront Fee Spread

138

178

1911

3146

89

152

198

85

62

131

0

40

80

120

160

200

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Second-Lien Loans New-Issue Volume(Number of Deals)

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 9: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

9

High Yield Bonds

$144 $144

$68

$164

$287

$218

$345$322 $310

$262$229

$276

$0B

$80B

$160B

$240B

$320B

$400B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

High Yield Bond Issuance – Annual ($bn)

Secured Unsecured Subordinated

$68

$0B

$22B

$44B

$66B

$88B

$110B

4Q'0

62Q

'07

4Q'0

72Q

'08

4Q'0

82Q

'09

4Q'0

92Q

'10

4Q'1

02Q

'11

4Q'1

12Q

'12

4Q'1

22Q

'13

4Q'1

32Q

'14

4Q'1

42Q

'15

4Q'1

52Q

'16

4Q'1

62Q

'17

4Q'1

7High Yield Bond Issuance – Quarterly ($bn)

Secured Unsecured Subordinated

6.4%

0.0%

2.8%

5.6%

8.4%

11.2%

14.0%

4Q'0

62Q

'07

4Q'0

72Q

'08

4Q'0

82Q

'09

4Q'0

92Q

'10

4Q'1

02Q

'11

4Q'1

12Q

'12

4Q'1

22Q

'13

4Q'1

32Q

'14

4Q'1

42Q

'15

4Q'1

52Q

'16

4Q'1

62Q

'17

4Q'1

7

New Issue High Yield Bond Yield to Maturity

9.7% 6.1% 4.4%13.4% 10.2% 6.8% 10.3% 14.1% 9.9% 9.9% 7.1% 5.9%

19.9%16.2%

2.4%5.9% 12.5% 15.3% 15.6% 15.7% 22.3% 29.8%

14.0% 16.3%

23.9% 35.4%

42.9% 4.8% 7.1% 5.5% 5.2% 3.8%3.3%

5.8% 4.0%

34.0% 29.2% 42.0%

75.5% 62.8% 54.4% 58.1% 50.3% 48.5%46.3%

63.7% 64.9%

12.5% 13.2% 8.3% 5.2% 9.8% 16.5% 10.5% 14.7% 15.5% 10.6% 9.4% 8.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

High Yield Bond Issuance by Purpose

Corp Purpose M&A/Acquisition M&A/LBO Refinancing Others

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 10: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

10

Dividend Recapitalization

$0.0

$49 $49

$3 $3

$38 $36

$56

$70

$53

$38

$50$56

$0B

$14B

$28B

$42B

$56B

$70B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dividend or Stock Repurchase Loan Volume- Annual ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$11

$26

$21

$1 $1 $1 $2$0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $1

$7$5

$8

$19$17

$16

$2 $1

$16

$8

$16 $16$18

$27

$14$11

$17$18

$13

$4$7

$15$13

$3$0

$14 $13

$22$20

$7

$15$14

$0B

$6B

$12B

$18B

$24B

$30B

4Q'0

61Q

'07

2Q'0

73Q

'07

4Q'0

71Q

'08

2Q'0

83Q

'08

4Q'0

81Q

'09

2Q'0

93Q

'09

4Q'0

91Q

'10

2Q'1

03Q

'10

4Q'1

01Q

'11

2Q'1

13Q

'11

4Q'1

11Q

'12

2Q'1

23Q

'12

4Q'1

21Q

'13

2Q'1

33Q

'13

4Q'1

31Q

'14

2Q'1

43Q

'14

4Q'1

41Q

'15

2Q'1

53Q

'15

4Q'1

51Q

'16

2Q'1

63Q

'16

4Q'1

61Q

'17

2Q'1

73Q

'17

4Q'1

7

Dividend or Stock Repurchase Loan Volume- Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$0.9

$0.0B

$0.4B

$0.8B

$1.2B

$1.6B

$2.0B

4Q'0

62Q

'07

4Q'0

72Q

'08

4Q'0

82Q

'09

4Q'0

92Q

'10

4Q'1

02Q

'11

4Q'1

12Q

'12

4Q'1

22Q

'13

4Q'1

32Q

'14

4Q'1

42Q

'15

4Q'1

52Q

'16

4Q'1

62Q

'17

4Q'1

7

Middle-Market Dividend Related Volume- Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$5.2

$3.2

$0.4$0.3

$2.8$2.5

$0.8

$3.0

$1.8

$0.9$1.5

$0.5

$0.0B

$1.1B

$2.2B

$3.3B

$4.4B

$5.5B

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Middle-Market Dividend Related Volume- Annual ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 11: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

11

Funds Flows

$4 $3 $4

($10)

($2)

$9

($5)($9)

($2)

$8

($4)

$6 $2

($6) ($1) ($1)($9)

($12B)

($8B)

($3B)

$1B

$6B

$10B

4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17

Flows into High Yield Bond Funds - Quarterly ($bn)

$25 $23

$38$32 $31 $31 $29

$19 $20$8

$18 $20$26

$17

$35 $30$36

$12 $9

($5)($12) ($17)

($4)($2) ($7)

($13) ($8) ($1)

$3

$14

$16

$4

($1) ($5)

($20B)

($7B)

$6B

$19B

$32B

$45B

4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17

Flows into Leveraged Loan Funds - Quarterly ($bn)

CLO issuance Prime fund flows

$12

$54

$83

$124

$99

$72

$118

0

50

100

150

200

250

$0B

$25B

$50B

$75B

$100B

$125B

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Annual CLO Volume ($bn)

Volume ($B) Count

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 12: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

12

Funds Flows (continued)

109

0

40

80

120

160

200

4Q'1

2

1Q'1

3

2Q'1

3

3Q'1

3

4Q'1

3

1Q'1

4

2Q'1

4

3Q'1

4

4Q'1

4

1Q'1

5

2Q'1

5

3Q'1

5

4Q'1

5

1Q'1

6

2Q'1

6

3Q'1

6

4Q'1

6

1Q'1

7

2Q'1

7

3Q'1

7

4Q'1

7

Libo

r +

U.S. CLO Spreads

0.89x0.94x 0.92x

0.81x 0.82x0.85x 0.88x

0.93x1.00x 0.99x

0.95x 0.94x0.89x

0.00x

0.20x

0.41x

0.61x

0.82x

1.02x

4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17

Public BDCs - Price to Book Value Multiple - Quarterly

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 13: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

13

Distress and Defaults

4.2%

0.0%

16.0%

32.0%

48.0%

64.0%

80.0%

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Percent of First-Lien Loans with Secondary Spreads of L+1000 or HigherBy Amount Outstanding

3.8%

0.0%

16.0%

32.0%

48.0%

64.0%

80.0%

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Percent of First-Lien Loans with Secondary Spreads of L+1000 or HigherBy Number of Facilities

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 14: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

14

Distress and Defaults (continued)

$8$3

$22

$57

$25

$12 $12$8

$24

$31

$14$10

$0B

$12B

$24B

$36B

$48B

$60B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Par Amount of Leveraged Loans in Payment Default or Bankruptcy ($bn)

1.9%

0.6%

3.7%

10.7%

5.0%

2.3% 2.2%1.2%

2.9%3.5%

1.6% 1.1%

0.0%

2.4%

4.8%

7.2%

9.6%

12.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percent of Outstanding Leveraged Loans in Default or Bankruptcy

1410

44

74

29

139 12 9

13 1412

0

16

32

48

64

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of Issuers in Payment Default or Bankruptcy

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 15: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

15

• Primary Service Offerings

Debt

and

equi

tyca

pita

lrai

ses — Senior debt financing, refinancing or amendments

— Acquisition and growth capital

— Dividend recapitalizations and minority buyouts

— Mezzanine/junior subordinated financing

— Structured and minority equity

— Project financing

— Capital for special situations, including bankruptcies

Capital Advisory PracticeWe are a leading global financial advisor with real time knowledge of the capital markets. We advise on a wide range of transactions involving both debt and equity, including raising financing for acquisitions, buyouts, dividend recapitalizations, growth capital, special situations, and DIP and exit financing in bankruptcies

We maintain close relationships with debt, mezzanine and equity capital providers, including banks, BDCs, specialty finance companies, insurance companies, family offices, credit and equity funds and other private investors

Value added advisor— Unbiased and objective advice— Local market insight with strong relationships across all

tranches of capital— Experienced deal team— Flexible and innovative approach— Fully integrated service offering— KPMG global advisory network

Capital Advisory Practice

Value added advisor

Primary advisory service offerings

KPMG Investment Banking – Capital Advisory

www.kpmgcorporatefinance.comCorporate financeservices, including Financing,Debt Advisory,andValuation Services, are not performedby all KPMGmember firmsand are not offeredby member firms in certain jurisdictions due to legal or regulatory constraints.

For more information, contact:

Doug Christensen

Vice PresidentCapitalAdvisory [email protected]

Philip Isom

Managing DirectorGlobal Head of M&A [email protected]

Pablo Escobar

DirectorCapitalAdvisory [email protected]

Michael Rudolph

Managing DirectorCapitalAdvisory [email protected]

Page 16: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

16

— Depth and breadth of specialist resources

— Restructuring professionals in every major country— In middle market, unmatched global footprint

Restructuring Practice

KPMG Restructuring

For more information, contact:

We deliver a full suite of services to maximize value to

stakeholders

Turnaround Management

Industry Expertise

Operations and

Performance Improvement

Quality of Earnings and Due Dilligence

M&A Advisory

Debt Restructuring

KPMG Restructuring understands the complex challenges organizations face, regardless of size, industry or global reach

We bring this understanding to the service of our clients, working with companies, management teams, senior lenders, investors or other important stakeholders to help identify, develop, and deliver restructuring solutions that provide sustainable improvements to cash flow, profit & loss, and the balance sheet

We help our clients turn around performance and generate lasting value

— Comprehensive and integrated network of services— Deep industry knowledge and specialist resources— Global platform

— Assessment of strategic alternatives— Turnaround and crisis management— Plant level operations assessment and performance

improvement— Debt restructuring and exchange offers— M&A, including Article 9 and bankruptcy §363 sales— Plans of reorganization— Quality of earnings and due diligence

Ford Phillips

Managing [email protected]

Sandy Prabhakar

[email protected]

Investment Banking1

KPMG’s Differentiated Offering

End to End Solution

All Major Verticals Covered

Global Platform

1 Investment banking services delivered by KPMG Corporate Finance LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC.2 Advisory services are provided by KPMG LLP.

Kevin Krakora

[email protected]

Tom Bibby

[email protected]

Advisory2

Tim Monahan

[email protected]

Page 17: Credit Markets Update - KPMG · 2020. 2. 26. · of 2016 to reach $22 billion and $29 billion, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Full year 2017 transactions and volume numbers

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

17

Important notice

The information contained in this newsletter is of a general nature and is not intended to address thecircumstances of any particular individual or entity including their investment objectives or financial needs. Inpreparing this newsletter, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracyand completeness of all information available from public sources. Although we endeavor to provide accurateand timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it isreceived or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act or rely on the information in thisnewsletter without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation tobuy, sell or hold any security of any issuer. Past performance does not guarantee future results.