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CRed carbon reduction Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Carbon Master Class: 19 th February 2009 Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv CRed Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 1 Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 2 General Introduction Low Energy Buildings and their Management Biomass Gasification Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Some reflections on Code for Sustainable Homes Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling General Introduction 2 Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 3 3 Evidence of Global Warming Slide 4 4 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 24 1979 - 2003 4 Slide 5 Comparison of Oil Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives to our traditional way of using energy now Energy Security issues are also of importance 5 Slide 6 6 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap Slide 7 7 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? China Slide 8 8 Carbon Emissions and Electricity 8 Slide 9 9 Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors Coal ~ 1.0 kg / kWh Oil ~ 0.9 kg/kWh Gas (CCGT) ~ 0.4 kg/kWh Nuclear 0.01 ~ 0.03 kg/kWh November December January February Current UK mix ~ 0.54 kg/kWh Slide 10 10 Price on 14/02/2009 5.998p/kWh Wholesale Electricity prices tend to follow Gas prices Slide 11 r 11 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries Slide 12 General Introduction Low Energy Buildings and their Management Biomass Gasification Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Some reflections on Code for Sustainable Homes Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling 12 Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 13 Original buildings Teaching wall Library Student residences 13 Slide 14 Nelson Court Constable Terrace 14 Slide 15 15 Constable Terrace - 1993 Four Storey Student Residence Divided into houses of 10 units each with en-suite facilities Heat Recovery of body and cooking heat ~ 50%. Insulation standards exceed 2006 standards Small 250 W panel heaters in individual rooms. Slide 16 Low Energy Educational Buildings Elizabeth Fry Building ZICER Nursing and Midwifery School Medical School Medical School Phase 2 2 16 Slide 17 17 Elizabeth Fry Binas - 1994 Cost ~6% more but has heating requirement ~20% of average building at time. Significantly outperforms even latest Building Regulations. Runs on a single domestic sized central heating boiler. Maliyeti ~%6 daha fazla olsada, snma ihtiyac zamann ortalama binalarnn ~%20si. En son Bina Ynetmeliklerini bile byk lde amaktadr. Tek bir ev tipi merkezi stma kazan ile almaktadr. The Elizabeth Fry Building 1994 Slide 18 18 Conservation: management improvements Koruma: ynetimde iyiletirmeler Careful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption. Dikkatli zleme ve Analiz, enerji tketimini azaltabilir.. Slide 19 19 Comparison with other buildings Dier Binalarla Karlatrma Energy Performance Enerji Performans Carbon Dioxide Performance Karbon Dioksit Performan Slide 20 Non Technical Evaluation of Elizabeth Fry Building Performance Elizabeth Fry Bina Performansnn Teknik Olmayan Deerlendirmesi thermal comfort +28% air quality +36% lighting +25% noise +26% User Satisfaction A Low Energy Building is also a better place to work in. Isl rahatlk +%28 Hava kalitesi +%36 aydnlatma +%25 grlt +%26 Kullanc memnuniyeti Bir Dk Enerji binas ayrca iinde almak iin de daha iyi bir yerdir. 20 Slide 21 ZICER Building Heating Energy consumption as new in 2003 was reduced by further 57% by careful record keeping, management techniques and an adaptive approach to control. Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor Won the Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 21 Slide 22 The ground floor open plan office The first floor open plan office The first floor cellular offices 22 Slide 23 The ZICER Building Main part of the building High in thermal mass Air tight High insulation standards Triple glazing with low emissivity ~ equivalent to quintuple glazing 23 Slide 24 Operation of Main Building Mechanically ventilated that utilizes hollow core ceiling slabs as supply air ducts to the space Regenerative heat exchanger Incoming air into the AHU 24 Slide 25 Air enters the internal occupied space Operation of Main Building Air passes through hollow cores in the ceiling slabs Filter Heater 25 Slide 26 Operation of Main Building Recovers 87% of Ventilation Heat Requirement. Space for future chilling Out of the building Return stale air is extracted from each floor The return air passes through the heat exchanger 26 Slide 27 27 Operation of Regenerative Heat Exchangers Fresh Air Stale Air A B Stale air passes through Exchanger A and heats it up before exhausting to atmosphere Fresh Air is heated by exchanger B before going into building 27 Slide 28 28 Fresh Air Stale Air B A Stale air passes through Exchanger B and heats it up before exhausting to atmosphere Fresh Air is heated by exchanger A before going into building After ~ 90 seconds the flaps switch over Operation of Regenerative Heat Exchangers 28 Slide 29 Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room Slabs store heat from appliances and body heat. Winter Day Air Temperature is same as building fabric leading to a more pleasant working environment Warm air 29 Slide 30 Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room Slabs also radiate heat back into room Winter Night In late afternoon heating is turned off. Cold air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures 30 Slide 31 Draws out the heat accumulated during the day Cools the slabs to act as a cool store the following day Summer night night ventilation/ free cooling Cool air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures 31 Slide 32 Slabs pre-cool the air before entering the occupied space concrete absorbs and stores heat less/no need for air-conditioning / Summer day Warm air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures 32 Slide 33 Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements 800 350 Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57% kWh/ 33 Slide 34 34 Life Cycle Energy Requirements of ZICER compared to other buildings All values in Primary energy TermodeckComparison Based on a GFA of 2573 m 2 ZICER as built (GJ) Naturally Ventilated ZICER (GJ) Air conditioned ZICER (GJ) Materials Production226131934819524 Transport of materials154415661544 On site construction energy2793 Workforce transport2851 Operational Heating/Hot Water240886817594436 Plant Room Electricity344746302142117 Functional Electricity e.g. from lights, computers etc (60 years) 113452 Replacement energy - materials693963497576 Demolition687674 TOTAL embodied energy over 60 years (GJ) 209441221508384967 Total excluding the functional electricity (GJ) 95990108057271516 34 Slide 35 209441GJ 384967GJ 221508GJ Life Cycle Energy Requirements of ZICER compared to other buildings ZICER Materials Production Materials Transport On site construction energy Workforce Transport Intrinsic Heating / Cooling energy / Functional Energy Refurbishment Energy Demolition Energy 28% 54% 34% 51% 61% 29% 35 Slide 36 Life Cycle Energy Requirements of ZICER compared to other buildings Compared to the Air-conditioned office, ZICER as built recovers extra energy required in construction in under 1 year. 36 Slide 37 General Introduction Low Energy Buildings and their Management Biomass Gasification Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Some reflections on Code for Sustainable Homes Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling 37 Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 38 Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays Poly- crystalline on faade ~ 6.7 kW in 3 arrays ZICER Building Photo shows only part of top Floor 38 Slide 39 Load factors Faade: 2% in winter ~8% in summer Roof 2% in winter 15% in summer Output per unit area Little difference between orientations in winter months Performance of PV cells on ZICER 39 Slide 40 All arrays of cells on roof have similar performance respond to actual solar radiation The three arrays on the faade respond differently Performance of PV cells on ZICER 40 Slide 41 120 150 180 210 240 Orientation relative to True North 41 Slide 42 42 Slide 43 43 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected. Cells active Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow 43 Slide 44 Use of PV generated energy Sometimes electricity is exported Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient Need an integrated approach Peak output is 34 kW 34 kW 44 Slide 45 Actual Situation excluding Grant Actual Situation with Grant Discount rate 3%5%7%3%5%7% Unit energy cost per kWh () 1.291.581.880.841.021.22 Avoided cost exc. the Grant Avoided Costs with Grant Discount rate 3%5%7%3%5%7% Unit energy cost per kWh () 0.570.700.830.120.140.16 Grant was ~ 172 000 out of a total of ~ 480 000 Performance of PV cells on ZICER Cost of Generated Electricity 45 Slide 46 Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 9.5%. Average efficiency over year is 7.5% Mono-crystalline Cell Efficiency Poly-crystalline Cell Efficiency Efficiency of PV Cells Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 14% and close to standard test bed efficiency. Most projections of performance use this efficiency Average efficiency over year is 11.1% Inverter Efficiencies reduce overall system efficiencies to 10.1% and 6.73% respectively 46 Slide 47 Comparison of other PV Systems Location Monitoring Period System Efficiency (%) Source Northumberland Building, University of Northumbria. 1995-19978.1Pearsall Solar Office Doxford International, Sunderland, UK Mar 1998-May 2000 7.5-8Jones Jubilee Campus, Nottingham University, Nottingham, UK Sept 2000-Aug 2001 8 Riffat and Gan Eco Energy House, Nottingham University, Nottingham, UK Sept 2000-May 2002 3.6Omer et al. Gaia Energy Centre, Delabole, Cornwall, UK Jan 2003-June 2003 9-10DTI PV Domestic Installations, UK (Average of six systems) 12 25 months 8.2 (range 6.5-10.4) Pearsall and Hynes ECOS Millennium Environmental Centre, Ballymena, Northern Ireland Dec 2000-Dec 2003 7.7 Smyth and Mondol 47 Slide 48 Life Cycle Issues Embodied Energy in PV Cells (most arising from Electricity use in manufacture) 32302750 Array supports and system connections285 On site Installation energy131.4 Transportation Spain > Germany > UK 11250 vehicle-kilometres 453.2 Total MWh/kWp4.13.4 Mono- crystalline (kWh/kWp) Poly- crystalline (kWh/kWp) Energy Yield Ratios Mono-crystalline Cells202530 As add on features3.23.84.6 Integrated into design3.54.25.4 Life Time of cells (years) 48 Slide 49 Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat Gas Heat Exchanger Exhaust Heat Exchanger 11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses 86% Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly Conversion efficiency improvements Building Scale CHP 61% Flue Losses 36% 49 Slide 50 UEAs Combined Heat and Power 3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat 50 Slide 51 51 Conversion efficiency improvements 1997/98 electricitygas oilTotal MWh198953514833 Emission factorkg/kWh0.460.1860.277 Carbon dioxideTonnes91526538915699 ElectricityHeat 1999/ 2000 Total site CHP generation exportimportboilersCHPoiltotal MWh204371563097757831451028263923 Emission factor kg/kWh -0.460.460.186 0.277 CO 2 Tonnes -44926602699525725610422 Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide 51 Slide 52 52 Conversion efficiency improvements Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer 52 Slide 53 A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit Throttle Valve Condenser Heat rejected Evaporator Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Compressor 53 Slide 54 Absorption Heat Pump Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated Throttle Valve Condenser Heat rejected Evaporator Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Heat from external source W ~ 0 Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger 54 Slide 55 A 1 MW Adsorption chiller 1 MW Reduces electricity demand in summer Increases electricity generated locally Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually Uses Waste Heat from CHP provides most of chilling requirements in summer 55 Slide 56 General Introduction Low Energy Buildings and their Management Biomass Gasification Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Some reflections on Code for Sustainable Homes Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling 56 Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 57 The Future: Biomass Advanced Gasifier/ Combined Heat and Power Addresses increasing demand for energy as University expands Will provide an extra 1.4MW of electrical energy and 2MWth heat Will have under 7 year payback Will use sustainable local wood fuel mostly from waste from saw mills Will reduce Carbon Emissions of UEA by ~ 25% despite increasing student numbers by 250% 57 Slide 58 1990-2006 5870 -14,047 students (239% INCREASE) 138,000 -207,000 sq.m (49% INCREASE) 19,420 - 21,652 T of CO 2 (10% INCREASE) 1990-2006 3308 -1541 kg/student (53% reduction) 140 -104 kg/CO 2 /sq.m (25%reduction) 2009 with Biomass in operation 24.5% reduction in CO 2 over 1990 levels despite increases in students and building area More than 70% reduction in emission per student The Future: Biomass Advanced Gasifier/ Combined Heat and Power 58 Slide 59 General Introduction Low Energy Buildings and their Management Biomass Gasification Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Some reflections on Code for Sustainable Homes Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling 59 Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 60 Target Day Results of the Big Switch-Off With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible How can these be translated into long term savings? 60 Slide 61 61 The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007 For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 61 Slide 62 Relatively large scatter indicative of poor control Abnormally high consumption could be indicative of malfunction Upper and lower bands drawn +/- 1.5 standard deviations would initiate around 2 reporting incidents a year (based on monthly reporting. CRed carbon reduction Managing Heating Requirements in an Office Building 62 Slide 63 Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia CRed carbon reduction Consumption rises to nearly double level of early 2005. Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. Extra fuel cost 12 000 per annum Additional CO 2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes. Low Energy Lighting Installed 63 Slide 64 Electricity Consumption in Office Buildings (kWh/m 2 ) CRed carbon reduction Annual Household consumption of Electricity in Norwich 3720 kWh 17885Typical 140125289 9754 Good Practice Air- conditioned Naturally ventilated Building 3 Building 2Building 1 Local Authority Offices Commercial Buildings Electricity Consumption per employee (kWh/annum) Building 13817 Building 24695 Building 33226 64 Slide 65 General Introduction Low Energy Buildings and their Management Biomass Gasification Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Some reflections on Code for Sustainable Homes Low Carbon Energy Provision Photovoltaics CHP Adsorption chilling 65 Managing Carbon in the Built Environment: With Case Studies from the University of East Anglia Slide 66 66 How has the performance of a typical house changed over the years? Bungalow in South West Norwich built in mid 1950s Slide 67 67 House constructed in mid 1950s Part L first introduced ~>50% reduction First attempt to address overall consumption. SAP introduced. Changing Energy Requirements of House In all years dimensions of house remain same just insulation standards change As houses have long replacement times, legacy of former regulations will affect ability to reduce carbon emissions in future Slide 68 68 Changing Energy Requirements of House Improvements to existing properties are limited because of in built structural issues e.g. No floor insulation in example shown. House designed to conform the Target Emission Rate (TER) as specified in Building Regulations 2006 and SAP 2005. House constructed in mid 1950s Existing house current standard: gas boiler As Existing but with oil boiler Slide 69 69 House constructed in mid 1950s Changing Energy Requirements of House Existing house current standard: gas boiler Improvements to existing properties are limited because of in built structural issues e.g. No floor insulation in example shown. House designed to conform the Target Emission Rate (TER) as specified in Building Regulations 2006 and SAP 2005. As Existing but with oil boiler Slide 70 70 House constructed in mid 1950s Changing Carbon Dioxide Emissions Code 5: Zero Carbon House for Heating/Hot Water and Lighting Code 6: Zero Carbon House overall but in reality is this achievable Slide 71 CRed carbon reduction 71 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy Basic System relying solely on solar energy Slide 72 CRed carbon reduction 72 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy indirect solar cylinder Solar tank with combi boiler Slide 73 CRed carbon reduction 73 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy Dual circuit solar cylinder Slide 74 74 CO 2 (kg)Reduction ASAP Reference25040 BBoiler = 90% (SEDBUK)222911% C = 90%: Solar Thermal 2 panels dual cylinder206118% D = 90%: Solar Thermal 2 panels separate cylinder202719% E = 90%: Solar Thermal 3 panels separate cylinder199120% F = 90%: Solar Thermal 4 panels separate cylinder196921% G = 90%: Solar Thermal 5 panels separate cylinder195322% The Future: Code for Sustainable Homes Improvements using solar thermal energy Code 1 Code 2 Note: little extra benefit after 3 panels, but does depend on size of house Slide 75 75 Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Slide 76 76 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February Slide 77 77 S Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar PhotoVoltaic Slide 78 78 CO 2 (kg)Reduction ASAP Reference 25040 BBoiler = 90% (SEDBUK) 222911% C = 90%: Solar PV 5 sqm 205218% D = 90%: Solar PV 10 sqm 187425% E = 90%: Solar PV 5 sqm + 2 panel solar thermal 188325% F = 90%: Solar PV 7.4 sqm + 2 panel solar thermal 179828% The Future: Code for Sustainable Homes Improvements using solar Photovoltaic Code 1 Code 2 Code 3 Note: 2 panels of solar thermal have same benefit as 5 sqm of PV Slide 79 79 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance is achieved if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Under floor heating should always be considered when installing heat pumps in for new build houses operating temperature is much lower than radiators. Attention must be paid to provision of hot water - performance degrades when heating hot water to 55 60 o C Consider boost using off peak electricity, or occasional Hot Days Slide 80 80 CO 2 (kg)Reduction ASAP Reference25040 BBoiler = 90% (SEDBUK)222911% CGround to Water Heat Pump (Radiators)166134% DAir to Water Heat Pump (Radiators)196222% EGround to Air Heat Pump160636% FAir to Air Heat Pump190724% GGround to Water Heat Pump (Under floor)155338% HAir to Water Heat Pump (Under floor)183027% The Future: Code for Sustainable Homes Improvements using Heat Pumps Code 1 Code 2 Code 3 Code 4 Code 3 Slide 81 81 CO 2 (kg)Reduction ASAP Reference25040% BBoiler = 90% (SEDBUK)222911% CBiomass Boiler67373% DBiomass Boiler with Solar Thermal67073% EBiomass Boiler with 5m Photovoltaic49680% FBiomass Boiler with 10m Photovoltaic31887% G Biomass Boiler + 10m PV + improved insulation + 100% Low Energy lighting 14794% The Future: Code for Sustainable Buildings Improvements using Biomass options Note: Biomass with solar thermal are incompatible options Code 1 Code 2 Code 3 Code 4 Slide 82 82 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. Replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat electrical generation will be limited. Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic? In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter. Slide 83 83 CO 2 (kg)Reduction ASAP Reference25040% BBoiler = 90% (SEDBUK)222911% CWater to Air Heat Pump (under floor)155338% DAs C with improved insulation132747% EAs D with 100% Low Energy Lighting121951% FAs E with Solar Thermal112455% GAs E with 5 m Solar PV104258% HAs E with 10 M Solar PV86465% The Future: Code for Sustainable Homes Various Combinations Code 1 Code 2 Code 3 Code 4 Slide 84 84 Significant Improvements can be achieved Better Insulation Standards Heat Pumps Biomass Boilers Solar Thermal Solar PV The Future: Code for Sustainable Buildings: Conclusions But avoid incompatible options Too large a Solar thermal Array Biomass with solar thermal CHP with Solar Thermal Slide 85 85 How can low carbon buildings be provided at an affordable cost? Energy Service Companies (ESCos) Home costs same initial cost as traditional home Any additional costs for providing renewable energy, better insulation/controls are financed by ESCo Client pays ESCo for energy used at rate they would have done had the house been built to basic 2005 standards ESCo pays utility company at actual energy cost (because energy consumption is less) Difference in payments services ESCo investment When extra capital cost is paid off Client sees reduced energy bills ESCO has made its money Developer has not had to charge any more for property The Environment wins Responding to the Challenge: Slide 86 86 Conclusions Hard Choices face us in the next 20 years Effective adaptive energy management can reduce heating energy requirements in a low energy building by 50% or more. Heavy weight buildings can be used to effectively control energy consumption Photovoltaic cells need to take account of intended use of electricity use in building to get the optimum value. Building scale CHP can reduce carbon emissions significantly - but heat disposal in summer must be addressed Adsorption chilling should be included to ensure optimum utilisation of CHP plant, to reduce electricity demand, and allow increased generation of electricity locally. Promoting Awareness can result in up to 25% savings The Future for UEA: Biomass CHP Wind Turbines? Slide 87 87 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: A summary 4.Using Renewable Energy 5.Offset Carbon Emissions 3.Using Efficient Equipment 1.Raising Awareness 2.Good Management 87 Slide 88 88 Worlds First MBA in Strategic Carbon Management Second cohort January 2009 A partnership between The Norwich Business School and The 5** School of Environmental Sciences Sharing the Expertise of the University And Finally Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." See www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm for presentation 88