"Creating economic development through

regional cooperation in the Wider Black Sea region"

Vasilios MargarisGeneral Director of

Thessaloniki Stock Exchange Centre HELLENIC EXCHANGES GROUP

"Creating economic development through regional cooperation in the

Wider Black Sea region"• Why economic cooperation?• FDIs in the Black Sea Region• Key figures for Black Sea Region

….PROPOSALS.....• Harmonization of the legal framework in the economic

environment• Interconnecting the local stock exchanges trading

platforms• Creation of a Black Sea Emerging Capital Market/

Regional Energy Derivatives Market• Exchange of know-how in the economic development

fields• A single entry point for investments in the region

"Creating economic development through regional cooperation in the

Wider Black Sea region"

Why economic cooperation?

Economic co-operation Economic co-operation among countries has been a key factor of world economic development for many years.Globalization of economic activity has made co-operation even more essential.Pursuing mutual economic interests diminishes conflicts and disputes.Special organizations has played a significant role and have acquired high esteem, like the “Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development” (O.E.C.D.), World Trade Organization (W.T.O.), and of course the E.U., which was initial a treaty for economic co-operation.Bilateral and multilateral agreements have been achieved to further enhance common economic interests.

Economic co-operation

Economic co-operation: Supports sustainable economic

growth Boosts employment Raises living standards Maintains financial stability Contributes to growth in world trade

Economic co-operation

A country seeking to implement a policy, can learn valuable lessons from its peers on what has worked and what has not. This can save time, and costly experimenting, in crafting effective national policies. The recommendations resulting from such a review can also help governments win support at home for implementing unpopular measures. And perhaps most importantly, because of the fact that everyone goes through the same exercise, no country feels it is being singled out. Today’s reviewers will be in the hot seat themselves tomorrow.

"Creating economic development through regional cooperation in the

Wider Black Sea region"

FDIs in the Black Sea Region

FDI inflows

FDIs is the most important form of investment.

It is the main drive force for economic growth.

Facilitating healthy investment environment is

vital for all economic policies.

Global FDI inflows

Global FDI flows approach their 2000 peak level, driven by cross-border M&As with the increasing involvement of private equity funds and resulting in further growth of international production.

Global FDI inflows “The upward trend in foreign direct investment (FDI)

that began in 2004 accelerated further in 2006. FDI flows increased in all the major country groups –

developed countries, developing countries and the transition economies of East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – but at varying rates.

The sustained growth of FDI and related international production primarily reflect the strong economic performance and increasing profits of many countries in the world, further liberalization of their policies, and other specific factors such as currency movements, stock exchange and financial market developments and high commodity prices.”

UNCTAD,

FDI inflows by region, 2005 and 2006

Source: UNCTAD

FDI inflows by region, 1992-2005

FDI flows to SEE and CIS countries

FDI flows to East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States increased for the sixth consecutive year.

FDI inflows into East Europe and the CIS grew by 68%, to $69 billion.

Services sector was particularly buoyant because of increased cross-border M&As in the banking industry, the primary sector received higher inflows as a result of soaring demand for natural resources.

FDI related policies continue to be in line with their accession or aspirations to accede to the EU, and with their aim to step up the privatization of stateowned enterprises

"Creating economic development through regional cooperation in the

Wider Black Sea region"

Key figures for Black Sea Region

Key figures for Black Sea Countries

2006POPULATION

in million

NOMINAL GDP (US$

bil)

GDP PER CAPITA (US$)

GDP GROWTH

CPIFOREIGN

DEBT/ GDPFDIs

(US$ mil)

ARMENIA 3,0 $12,50 $1.997,00 13,50% 5,20% 25,10% $343GEORGIA 4,4 $7,78 $1.768,18 9,40% 8,80% 20,60% $1.076UKRAINE 46,6 $102,20 $2.190,00 7,10% 11,60% 52,90% $5.203AZERBAIJAN 8,4 $19,85 $2.351,00 34,50% 11,40% 9,90% -$601MOLDOVA 4,2 $3,40 $809,52 4,00% 14,10% 73,40% $222TOTAL ΝΟΝ-ΝΑΤΟ 66,6 145,73 $1.823,14 13,70% 10,22% 36,38% $6.243

BULGARIA 7,7 $49,10 $4.091,00 6,10% 6,50% 78,10% $5.172ROMANIA 21,6 $121,90 $5.649,00 7,70% 4,90% 28,80% $11.394GREECE 11,1 $225,00 $20.290,00 3,80% 3,30% $5.363TURKEY 74,2 $402,81 $5.430,00 6,00% 9,70% 51,50% $20.120TOTAL ΝΑΤΟ 114,6 798,81 $8.865,00 5,90% 6,10% 52,80% $42.049TOTAL NATO 181,2 944,54 $5.322,34 9,83% 8,79% 45,03% $48.292

ΝΟΝ-ΝΑΤΟ

ΝΑΤΟ BL-SEA

SOURCES: EMERGING EUROPE MONITOR, UNCTAD

Key figures for Black Sea Countries

Figures show significant differences between members and non-members of NATO in relation to growth levels of the economy.

Non-members have basic similarities, as far as low GDP per capita, high inflation,high growth rates and on the other hand, FDI inflows and Foreign Debt on GDP vary considerably.

Members of NATO have a significantly higher GDP per capita, lower inflation, but also lower growth rates.

Key figures for Black Sea Countries

Members of NATO produce 85% of the total GDP of the region, they have more that double GDP per capita, and 87% of the total FDI inflows.

The average growth rate of non-members is more than double compared to members.

FDI inflows to non-members are low, compared to members, but exhibit significant growth rates over the years, indicating strong growth potential for the economies.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

FACTS:Development is hikingInvestment is booming

However:Macroeconomic problems still existRapid development is not always followed by required infrastructure

MONEY MARKET

The banking sector in almost all the Black Sea countries is witnessing a significant restructure.

Foreign banks penetrated recently, through acquisitions and independent network development, bringing:

New productsKnow-howInvestment capital

CAPITAL MARKET

Capital Markets have shown booming development in terms of:

CapitalizationTurnover valueNumber of participants

However: size is still not comparable to developed countries, Major reforms are still requiredCapital market culture is not adequate

"Creating economic development through regional cooperation in the

Wider Black Sea region"

PROPOSALS…….CREATING THE GROUND FOR

COMMON DEVELOPMENT…

… a Black Sea Economic Network

Creating the ground for common development

Harmonization of the legal framework in the economic environmentInterconnecting the local stock exchanges trading platformsExchange of know how in the economic development fieldsCreation of a Black Sea Emerging Capital Market/ Regional Energy Derivatives MarketA single entry point for investments in the region

Harmonization of the legal framework in the economic

environment

..Proposal I….

Harmonization of the legal framework in the economic

environmentIn order to attract foreign capital as a region, investors need competitive investment environment, that has the following features:

A regulation and legal regime that is:

• harmonized across the region and

• harmonized to EU and international standards

capital movement structure that is:

• Liberal

• Cost efficient

Harmonization of the legal framework in the economic environment

The establishment of a Black Sea Economic Network will undertake the task to harmonize the legal framework of the participating countries and will also help in the development of entrepreneurship in the region of the Black Sea by utilizing available business networks and becoming an access point for the business development.Black Sea Economic Network may be part of the “ORGANIZATION OF THE BLACK SEA ECONOMIC COOPERATION” or may even be an independent organization that will be run by representatives of each country.As far as harmonization is concerned BSEN can focus on specific areas:

Development of a study for the harmonization of legal framework.Propose the required changes for the harmonization.

Interconnecting the local stock exchanges trading

platforms

..Proposal II….

Developments in the Exchange industryAims to simplify investor access to any issue across Europe

EU regulation

Threat to the large European ExchangesMIFID

Looking for cost effective ways to invest in smaller regional markets

International liquidity

Transcontinental expansion aiming to increase range of products coverage

US Exchanges

Information Technology

No longer a barrier to entry……but still a significant operating cost

Data vendors, order routing systems & news agencies businesses converging

Outsource of IT expertise to low labor cost countries

Liquidity is critical for Regional Market survival

Costs and Threats

Products & Services

Liquidity

Regulation costs

- MiFID

- Transparency Directive

- Prospectus Directive

Harmonization costs - Customization of local Rules & Regulations to EU requirements - Code of Conduct (C&S) - Giovannini barriers

IT costs

- for faster execution

- larger lines bandwidth

- new functionalities

- order routing

Sector Consolidation

- transcontinental

expansion

- equity sharing

- mergers & acquisitions

Need for new products - Capital raising - primary listings - dual listings - GDRs/ADRs - share capital increase - ETFs - derivatives - indices

Need for new services

- fast APIs to members

- algorithmic trading

- spread trading

- consolidated feed

Need for LIQUIDITY - international investors look for new trades - business networks - new pools of liquidity

The purpose is to maintain sustainable liquidity and market operating processes.

The challenge is to acquire adequate size in order to attract foreign investment.

Cooperation through a common platform guarantees the a single entry point for international liquidity pools.

Create a big visible virtual regional emerging market, guaranteeing a win-win cooperation status for all the participants:

Black Sea Virtual Regional Emerging Market

CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

Black Sea Virtual Regional Emerging Market

1st Solution: A Common trading Platform

CommunicationsNetwork

Trading Platform

CommunicationsNetwork

Trading Platform

MF

MF

MF

MF

MF

MFClearing & Settlement

System

Clearing & Settlement

System

Clearing & Settlement

System

Clearing & Settlement

System

Local Clearing/Settlement

Local Clearing/Settlement

Brokers - investors

Brokers - investors

Stock Exchange 2

Stock Exchange 2

Stock Exchange 1

Stock Exchange 1

Black SeaExchange 1

Black Sea Virtual Regional Emerging Market

2nd Solution: interconnecting Stock Exchanges

Communications Communications networknetwork

Investors

Data vendorsIntermediaries

Members

Black SeaExchange 2

Black SeaExchange 3

Black SeaExchange N

Black Sea Virtual Regional Emerging Market benefits for market participants

Significantly reduce

operating costs

Opportunity for local members

to expand abroad

at no additional cost for

infrastructure

Increase the capacity to

raise capitallisted companies

gain access to capital available

through all participating exchanges

Increase the participating exchanges’ sources of

incomeexchanges split

cross border income

Preserve the autonomy and national identity of the participating exchanges

Provide a modern trading and post-trading environment Utilize a common infrastructure based on a compatible

regulatory and operational environment Low cost investment and operation

Can be a true success storytrue success story of regional cooperation in the Black Sea RegionBlack Sea Region

Can be a true success storytrue success story of regional cooperation in the Black Sea RegionBlack Sea Region

Both the Common platform and the interconnected markets solutions proposals are unique unique

and ensure a regional exchange’s organic growth

Both the Common platform and the interconnected markets solutions proposals are unique unique

and ensure a regional exchange’s organic growth

Conclusion

Black Sea Emerging Capital Market ..AND..

Regional Energy Derivatives and Emmission Rights Market

…Proposal III..

&

Regional Energy Derivatives Market..

Development of a derivatives market that would cover a wide range of products in a competitive and innovative manner: Financial derivatives (stocks, indices, bonds) Energy (electricity, oil, gas) Commodities (agricultural, metals, resources)

The activation of such a market can foster economic development by providing essential products and resources at competitive prices and at adequate quantities.

…and Regional Emmission Rights Market..

Development of an Emmission Rights market, an exchange that will offer a range of environmental products (futures, options, and swap contracts) for markets focused on renewable energy, solutions to climate change, and other environmental challenges : Environmental derivatives

trading in global carbon-based contracts, as well as contracts for regional Green-e certified voluntary renewable energy certificates

Renewable energy derivatives

Exchange of know how in the economic development

fields

…Proposal IV..

Exchange of know-how in the economic development fields

Through the collaboration that will emerge from these activities, a new independent organization is proposed to be created.The “Black Sea Economic Network” could be funded by the previously mentioned activities (by keeping part of the cross border fees on transactions) and would undertake the task to create an information network aiming to enhance economic development.Black Sea Economic Network can alternatively be a part of the “ORGANIZATION OF THE BLACK SEA ECONOMIC COOPERATION”, with focus on specific fields of activity, described so far.

“Black Sea Economic Network”

“Black Sea Economic Network” would help in the development of entrepreneurship in the region of the Black Sea by utilizing available business networks and becoming an access point for the business development.BSEN could focus on specific areas:

Macroeconomic and microeconomic information portal.Development of business supporting services (consultation).Dynamic business network information center.Human resource development.International educational services provider.Think tank for policy making on regional development.

A single entry point for investments in the region

…proposal V..

Black SeaCountry 1

Black Sea Economic Network

Trading platformTrading platform

Black SeaCountry 2

Black SeaCountry 3

Black SeaCountry N

ConsultingConsultingservicesservicesTrading Trading

feesfees

Regional Regional derivatives derivatives

marketmarkettrainingtraining

COMMON CULTURE -COMMON FUTURE

The biggest advantage in wider Black Sea region, is the common culture, common characteristics, common way of thinking and strong economic ties.

Business operations and co-operations in the region have proved that there is sound ground for success.

COOPERATION IS THE FUTURE

The countries in wider Black Sea region have the chance to built their future together by:

Remaining independent cooperating markets, Servicing their customers locally, Utilizing all the available business networks,Creating a significant virtual emerging market visible to the worlds investor community..

Thank you for your attention..

Vasilios MargarisGeneral Director ofThessaloniki Stock Exchange Centre

Member of Hellenic Exchanges Groupv.margaris@helex.grTel.+302310567777Fax +302310530455www.helex.gr16-18 Katouni str.546 25 LadadikaThessalonikiMacedoniaGREECE