Western Sydney’s current and

future transport needs

Presentation to the Informa NSW

Transport Infrastructure Summit

7-8 August 2013

Alex Gooding, Gooding Davies Consultancy

Who and what makes up Western Sydney?

Greater Western Sydney (GWS):

• Governance: 14 LGAs (10 WSROC & 3 MACROC councils, & the Hills Shire)

• Area: 8,941 sq. km.

• Population: 2 million (nearly one in 11 Australians)

• Estimated growth: 3 million by 2031

• Proportion of Sydney: 44% of the Sydney SSD population (36% of the Sydney/Hunter/ Illawarra Greater Metro Area)

Source: RDA Sydney

How many jobs and workers are there

in Western Sydney?

• Annual GRP: $80.6 billion+ (Australia’s third-largest regional economy)

• No. of businesses: 161,000+

• Workforce: 850,000-900,000+

• Estimated growth: 1.4 million by 2031

• Jobs: approx. 700,000

• Notional jobs deficit: around 150,000 (22% of the workforce)

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Where do people in Western Sydney work?

Local Government Areas:

• Top jobs location: Sydney City

• Other key LGAs: Parramatta,

Blacktown, the Hills,

Bankstown, Penrith & Liverpool

(65% of jobs in GWS)

• LGAs with net jobs surplus:

Parramatta and Auburn

4

Source: based on NSW BTS and ABS Census data

Where do people in Western Sydney work?

Employment Centres:

• In 2006 only around 25% of

Western Sydney jobs were

in the 13 major employment

centres…

• But employment in these

centres grew more strongly

than elsewhere between

2001 and 2006

5

Where do people in Western Sydney work?

Employment Growth 2006-11:

• Recent research suggests

Western Sydney job creation

between 2006 and 2011 was

well below planning targets

• Manufacturing lost nearly 9,000

jobs

• Jobs lost in wholesale, despite

major logistics investment

along the M7

• Growth has come largely from

public administration,

education/training and health

care/social assistance

6

Source: Prof Phil O’Neill presentation 2013

Where do people in Western Sydney work?

Employment flows:

• 235,000-270,000* (28%-32%) actually leave GWS for work…

• And nearly 120,000 people come to GWS to work

• By 2031 300,000 to 350,000 new jobs will be required in

GWS just to maintain the current employment containment

level (around 68%-72%)…

• And there will still be 120,000-150,000 extra trips out of the

region & 60,000 into GWS

* Includes 37,000 workers with multiple employment locations

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How do Western Sydney workers get to work?

Overall:

• Train use: slightly lower

than Sydney average

• Bus use, bicycling and

walking: less than half

Sydney average

• Car use: nearly 15% higher

• Changing patterns: Use of

trains (up 18%) and buses

(up 55%, off a low base)

increasing faster than car

use (up 10.5% for drivers,

down 6% for passengers) 8

How do Western Sydney workers get to work?

Within Western Sydney:

• People working in GWS are

nearly 38% more likely to

travel by car (74.8%

compared to 54.5%)…

• And nearly 3.5 times less

likely to travel by train than

those leaving the region to

work (8.5% compared to

29.5%)

• So how do we ensure that

increasing employment

containment is sustainable?

9

Source: based on NSW BTS and ABS data

Why is the region so car-dependent?

• Rapid population growth fed by baby boom and post-

war immigration led to suburban expansion

• Spectacular rise in private car use and the closure of

the tram network in 1961

• Rail system in Western Sydney largely unchanged

from the 1930s to the 1970s

• Poor, fragmented private bus services

• Underinvestment by State and Federal Governments

in infrastructure…

• …coupled with an increasing role for the private sector,

especially in toll roads

Key planning & transport strategies 1948 – 2009

• 60 years of planning but little resulting GWS infrastructure….

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1 1948 County of Cumberland Plan (1948—80) Cumberland County Council

2 1968 Sydney Region Outline Plan (1970-2000) NSW State Planning Authority

3 1974 Sydney Area Transportation Study (1974-2000) SATS

4 1987 Roads 2000 NSW Department of Main Roads

5 1988 Sydney into its Third Century (1986-2011) NSW Dept of Environment & Planning

6 1991 Better Cities Program Federal Government

7 1995 Integrated Transport Strategy NSW Department of Transport

8 1995 Sydney’s Future Cities for the 21st Century (1994-2021) NSW Department of Planning

9 1998 Shaping our Cities (1999-2016) NSW Dept of Urban Affairs & Planning

10 1998 Action for Transport 2010 (1998-2010) NSW Department of Transport

11 2006 City of Cities – A Plan for Sydney’s Future (2006-31) NSW Department of Planning

12 2006 Metropolitan Rail Expansion Program (2006-31) NSW Department of Transport

13 2008 NW Metro (2009-17) NSW Department of Transport

14 2008 CBD and West Metros (2009-15?) NSW Department of Transport

15 2009 National Infrastructure Priorities Infrastructure Australia (Federal)

Failing to create a balanced transport

network in Western Sydney…

Policy failures of the (not so distant) past:

• Numerous rail lines proposed – and promised - but only 13km and three new stations built since the 1930s

• Only two bus T-ways built out of plans for a complete network

• But over 100km of motorway (mostly tolled) now completed in Western Sydney & capacity being expanded

• New residential growth and employment centres built further and further away from the rail network

• Limited integration between bus and rail networks

• Travel between outer suburbs by public transport increasingly difficult

Western Sydney

Railways in the

1930s

Harris Park

“Y” Link

East Hills –

Glenfield

Extension

Olympic

Park Link

Western Sydney

Railways closed

and opened

since the 1930s

Failing to create a balanced transport

network in Western Sydney… Living with the consequences:

• Low-density suburban development greatly encouraged

by, and dependent on, the car

• Scattered multi-front, land releases which are difficult to

support

• Newer employment centres built without any public

transport access

• Road and motorway capacity fills up more quickly without

complementary public transport

• Much longer commuting times than in the rest of Sydney

(especially in the AM peak)

• High transport costs add to the financial vulnerability of

many households

16 Source: Dodson and Sipe (2008) Griffith University

17

Median income (residents aged 25-65),

Sydney, 2011

Source: Kelly and Mares (2003) Grattan Institute

Are we starting to create a balanced

transport network?: key influences • Fairfax Independent Public Inquiry Long Term Public

Transport Plan for Sydney: Final Report (2010)

– Identified the strong public interest in and support for investment in

public transport infrastructure

– Articulated a strong case for expansion of the rail system

– Outlined a detailed long-term planning, governance and funding

strategy to support infrastructure investment

– Proposed development of an integrated transport network over a

period of 25 years, with a focus on Western Sydney

• Infrastructure NSW State Infrastructure Plan (2012)

– Proposed a roads-based infrastructure strategy and opposed

almost all future rail investment

– Many aspects of this strategy were rejected, however the

WestConnex motorway proposal was endorsed by Government

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Are we starting to create a balanced

transport network?: current policies

NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan

Better than many of the previous

plans: at least discusses some of

the key delivery and funding issues

Proposes protection of strategic

corridors and a bus priority network

in Western Sydney

Commits to SWRL and NWRL

Seeks to support the three “regional

cities” and new growth centres in

Western Sydney

Proposes incremental

improvements to service delivery

Light rail and bus plans for the CBD

will improve access for buses from

Western Sydney

ₓ However, as with previous

plans, the only real funding and

implementation commitments are very

short-term (with the partial exception

of NWRL & 1st stage WestConnex)

ₓ Several key commitments from the

draft Master Plan have disappeared

ₓ WestConnex project is of

questionable value and NWRL

proposal also very problematic

ₓ Does little to address capacity issues

in the rest of the rail network,

especially in Western Sydney

ₓ Apart from the regional cities, little

discussion of the transport needs of

established major employment

centres in Western Sydney

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South West Rail Link:

a train to where?

First major Western Sydney

line since Olympic Park and

East Hills extension

Services new development

at Edmondson Park

Secures a corridor into the

SW growth centre well

ahead of development and

provides the basis for a

potential airport link

Also provides a major train

stabling facility

ₓ Little development planned

at Leppington terminus

ₓ Piecemeal development in

the SW has taken place

well away from the new line

ₓ Layout of the SW growth

centre makes it difficult for

any extension to serve both

residential development

and any proposed airport

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North West Rail Link:

no place for a metro?

First really substantial rail

line in Western Sydney

since the 1930s

Will service established

area with high demand as

well as NW growth centre

Will provide connectivity

to major employment

centres (Norwest,

Macquarie Park and

Chatswood)

May eventually provide a

direct link to the LNS and

CBD

ₓ Metro benefits oversold

ₓ Little community input to decision

ₓ Involves privatisation of existing

PT infrastructure

ₓ Will cause major inconvenience

for Main North line passengers

ₓ Chatswood interchange a major,

potentially dangerous bottleneck

ₓ Will do little to relieve

overcrowded W. Sydney lines

ₓ Government’s desire to isolate

the line will destroy system

integration

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WestConnex: back to

the 1950s?

Would provide “missing

links” in Sydney’s

motorway network

Would improve road

links to the port and

airport

May provide

opportunities for public

transport development

along Parramatta Road

corridor

ₓ Little community debate about road

v. public transport options

ₓ Huge cost - $10-$13 bn, especially

since “slot” approach abandoned

ₓ Will require considerable upfront

government investment as the

basis for a PPP

ₓ Is likely to result in major

congestion at CBD interchanges

and on the existing M4

ₓ Are we really building 1950s radial

motorways in the 21st century?

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Other infrastructure policy “blunders”

ₓ Poor submissions to Infrastructure Australia by previous

State Governments = zero Federal funding to NSW

ₓ State-Federal Government stand-off over Parramatta-

Epping v. NWRL proposals = zero Federal funding

ₓ The NSW Transport Minister “welcoming” the Federal

Opposition Leader’s commitment not to end Federal

funding for urban rail infrastructure as “providing

certainty” (SMH 06/08/13) = zero Federal funding

(potentially)

Outcome: Vic, Qld, SA and WA have all received

substantial Federal funding for major public transport

projects. NSW has not and is unlikely to.

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Western Sydney’s current and

future needs: summary Now to 2031:

• Population: Forecast to grow from two to three million

• Workforce: Forecast to grow from 900,000+ to 1.4 million

• Jobs: Will need to grow from 700,000+ to over a million to

just maintain current regional employment containment

• JTW out of region: Will grow from 270,000 to 400,000 plus

even if current containment levels are maintained

• JTW into the region: Could grow from 120,000 to 180,000

• JTW mode: Harder to predict but will depend on:

– The success or otherwise of policies to grow jobs in the region

– The extent to which these jobs can be located in major centres

– Decisions regarding transport infrastructure priorities and the level of

investment

– Changes in service provision

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Creating a balanced transport network in

Western Sydney

1. The big picture:

• Establish a proper, independent transport governance

and accountability framework

• Plan a genuine integrated transport network – and not

just a list of promises or PPPs

• Develop a robust implementation framework based on a

long-term funding strategy

• Rebalance investment in favour of public transport –

especially in Western Sydney

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Source: Independent Public Inquiry into a Long-Term

Public Transport Plan for Sydney: Final Report (2010)

Creating a balanced transport network in

Western Sydney 2. No silver bullet – Western Sydney needs all of the

following:

• Detailed jobs creation strategies for all major

employment centres – not just the regional cities and

new growth centres – to boost employment containment

• An integrated transport network which develops the

following infrastructure: – Inter-regional links to the CBD and other centres outside

Western Sydney

– Intra-regional links between key employment and education

centres in Western Sydney

– Local feeder public transport services

– The local and intra-regional arterial road network to connect

major centres

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Creating a balanced transport network in

Western Sydney 3. Inter-regional links

• Short-term:

– Completion of the NWRL – but as an integrated railway and not

a metro

– Increased capacity, frequency and speed on existing rail lines,

especially to Parramatta, Blacktown and Campbelltown

– Identify and reserve additional inter-regional public transport

corridors

• Medium-term:

– Construction of the Parramatta-Epping rail link

– Construction of the Second Harbour Crossing to provide

additional capacity throughout the network

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Creating a balanced transport network in

Western Sydney 4. Intra-regional Links

• Short-term:

– Resume services from Blacktown to Campbelltown via

Parramatta on the Cumberland Line

– Develop a high-frequency, rapid bus priority network between all

major employment and education centres in the region

– In particular, prioritise north-south links, for example Parramatta

to Epping, Bankstown and Castle Hill, Rouse Hill to Penrith

– Identify and reserve additional intra-regional corridors

• Medium-term:

– Commence construction of an integrated bus T-way and light

rail network between key employment and education centres,

the latter based on Parramatta Council’s proposal for a regional

light rail network

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29

Parramatta Council

proposed Western

Sydney Light Rail

Network

Source: Parramatta City Council (2013)

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Source: Independent Public Inquiry into a Long-Term Public Transport Plan for Sydney: Final Report (2010)

Independent Public Inquiry:

Preferred Option

What is a “balanced” transport network?

• Inter-regional and intra-regional equity

• Economic and social equity

• Sustainability – environmental, social and economic

• Inter-generational equity

• Changing patterns of transport consumption

• Equity between transport demand and infrastructure

provision

• … and not just the balance between private and

public transport

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