craig rispin keynote for southern cross it conference
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Craig Rispin Keynote for Southern Cross IT Conference. Covering Mobile Trends, Consumerization of IT, BYODTRANSCRIPT
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Karl Fisch - TheFischBowl.blogspot.com
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Discuss with a Partner:
What Did You Find Most Surprising in the Video
“Did You Know”?
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People
Business Technology
Life
SciencesWork/LifeShift
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Age Gap
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
End of Retirement
Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
Free Agency
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People
Business Technology
Life
SciencesWork/LifeShift
Glo
ba
lised
Ac
ce
lera
tion
Age Gap
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End of Retirement
Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
http://www.flickr.com/photos/43533334@N07/5153726732
Your mobile phone has
all of NASA in 1969. more computing power than
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How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6B Mobile Subscribers
1B 3G/LTE Subscribers
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Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far, Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Smartphone Mobile Phone
Glo
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ubsc
ript
ions
(MM
)
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%).
Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.
953MM Smartphone
Subscriptions
6.1B Mobile Phone Subscriptions
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20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Su
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rib
ers
(MM
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iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
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iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape UsersFirst 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Data as of CQ3:10.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch + iPad
Launched 6/07
~120MM+
~32MM
~9MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~27MM
Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp – The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before
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40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Sub
scri
bers
(MM
)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
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iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape UsersFirst 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge
380M
Up
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Sub
scri
bers
(MM
)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
7
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape UsersFirst 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge
468M
Up
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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hipm
ents
(000
)
Quarters After Launch
iPad iPhone iPod
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Glo
bal U
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ents
(000
)
Quarters After Launch
iPad iPhone iPod
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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(000
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Quarters After Launch
iPad iPhone iPod
First 8 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad
Source: Apple, as of CQ1:12 (8 quarters post iPad launch).
iPods Changed Media Industry iPhones Ramped Even Faster iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves “Siblings” in Dust
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Money
Access
Body
Engines
Metering
Control
Security
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Partner Questions:
What’s you favourite app and why?
Do you have a mobile strategy at your organisation?
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People
Business Technology
Life
SciencesWork/LifeShift
Glo
ba
lised
Ac
ce
lera
tion
Age Gap
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End of Retirement
Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
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“Cloud Computing isn’t
really about technology - it’s
really about thinking of IT in a whole new way.”
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IMPACT AND ADOPTIONP R E D I C T I O N S F O R TO D AY A N D TO M O R R O W
Cloud barriers are dropping. Vendors are stepping up to address security, performance, compliance and integration concerns.
Cloud barrier: any obstacle or perceived problem that prohibits cloud adoption by a company, such as lack of security, support and control, regulatory concerns, and difficulty meeting SLAs.
Capex to Opex, or Capex vs. Opex:Refers to economic differences between cloud and on-premise computing, because on-premise requires capital expenditure,
— Loudhouse CIO Cloud Survey, March 2011
Biggest barriers to the adoption of cloud services
Who’s buying the cloud
Cost savings (Capex to Opex) gives way to business agility, time-to-value and overall efficiency as primary adoption drivers.
Eager to adopt cloud services and reap their benefits but hindered by
Security
Integration withInternal IT applications
Performance/reliability
Regulatory & compliance
Lock-in
Transparency of cost
Geographic location
637168
576451556858485743464437445543313121
2011 2010 2009
Hype is over – serious adoption begins
How cloud adoption impacts enterprise software vendors How cloud adoption impacts enterprise IT
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
2010
2011
2012
2015
2012Private cloud with on-premise or
hybrid integration is the prevalent adoption path for enterprises
any obstacle or perceived problem that prohibits cloud adoption by a company, such as lack of security, support and control, regulatory
Refers to economic differences between cloud and on-premise computing, because on-premise requires capital expenditure, while cloud “pay-as-you-go” service is an ongoing operating
— Graphic table created by Axway based on Gartner Research Gartner, Forecast: Software as a Service, All Regions, 2010-2015 2 September 2011
Who’s buying the cloud
Hype is over – serious adoption
$0B
$5B
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
Worldwide NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
WesternEurope
EasternEurope
Japan Asia/Pacific
2010
2011
2012
2015
hybrid integration is the prevalent adoption path for enterprises
$1B by 2015
2012 will be the first year in which spending from these devices ($277 billion) exceeds that for PCs ($257 billion), growing at 23% — almost 5 times PC spending growth.— Source: IDC. IDC Predictions 2012: Competing for 2020 December 2011 (#231720).
2 September 2011
Mobile is king (smartphones, tablets, etc). Enterprise app stores and marketplaces replace traditional application deployment and maintenance processes, making it easier for employees and customers to consume services within and outside company walls.
“Mobile device spending will exceed PC spending, growing 4x as fast.”
2014
2013Enterprises looking for
alternatives to on-premise deployments—but must
maintain control over SLAs for their high-value
customers—turn to private clouds for B2B interaction
management and governance
Strong adoption of mobile devices (phones and tablets)
drive enterprises to think about what kind of internal
applications to mobilize.
Enterprise IT departments become service management organizations responsible for managing on-premise, private cloud, and public cloud services. Business drives more technology decisions and IT is more involved with the business.
— Source: IDC. IDC Predictions 2012: Competing for 2020 December 2011 (#231720).
Cloud is the primary operating model for
enterprise IT organizations
Six in ten CIOs think it (cloud) will become the most significant method of IT delivery by 2014.— Source: Colt Technology Services Group Limited, 2011
2015
2014
decisions and IT is more involved with the business.
flexible SaaS licensing models,
100%
50%
0%
2008
82%
18%29% 44%
71%
56%
2012 2016
Extrapolated from Forrsights report
Traditional software licensing
Subscription and other licensing models
— Forrsights: The Software Market in Transformation, 2011 and Beyond, Forrester Research, Inc. May 2011
* dotted line denotes Axway projection
2015
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5 Drivers of Change:
1. Social Networks
2. Home/Work Blur
3. Mobile Device Boom
4. Tech Savvy Employees
5. C-Suite & Employee’s Expectations of IT
Source: Paul D'Arcy1 March 2011 CIO.com
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Craig RispinBusiness Futurist & Innovation Expert
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