U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D

A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

CPC’s Extended & Long-Lead Forecasts and Drought Outlooks

David Miskus

Meteorologist & Drought POCNWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV

April 14-16, 2015

Climate Outlooks

Climate Predictions

Weather Forecasts

Warnings

Days

Hours

1 week

Minutes

2 weeks

Months

Seasons

Years Forecast Uncertainty

RECOVERY RESPONSE PREPARATION

Impact-Based Decision Support

Fore

cast

Lea

d T

ime

NWS_041

2

Climate/Weather

Linkage

CPC

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Click to edit Master title style

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast ProductsSpanning Climate and Weather

Service Center Perspective

CollaborativeForecasts

MDO & SDO

Outlook Variables Type Frequency Release Date and Time

Days 6-10; Days 8-14

Temp/Precip Probabilistic Daily Daily 3 PM ET

Monthly Temp/Precip Probabilistic 2x per month 3rd Thurs of month / Last day of month

8:30 AM, 3 PM ET

Seasonal Temp/Precip Probabilistic 1x per month 3rd Thursday of month

8:30 AM ET

Monthly drought

Drought tendency

Categorical 1x per month Last day of month 3 PM ET

Seasonaldrought

Drought tendency

Categorical 1x per month 3rd Thursday of month

8:30 AM ET

U.S. Hazards

Temps, precip, winds, etc.

Categorical Daily Monday - Friday 3 PM ET

Global Tropics

Precip, TCs, etc.

Categorical Weekly Tuesday or Wednesday

12 PM ET

CPC Outlook Overview* WPCs 7-Day QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) - Daily

Weather Prediction Center (WPC):

Quantitative Precipitation Outlooks, Days 1-7

MOS Mean (Maximum) Temperature Anomaly, Days 1-5

7-Day QPF

5-Day Max Temp Anomaly

Extended Range Outlooks

6-10 and 8-14 Days

Arkansas

Below: 32%Near: 36%Above: 32%

N

Nevada

Below: 3%Near: 17%Above: 80%

Wisconsin

Below: 42%Near: 33%Above: 25%

N

W. New Mexico

Below: 17%Near: 33%Above: 50%

Extended Range Outlooks

6-10 and 8-14 Days

U.S. Hazards Outlook

• Both Days 3-7 and Days 8-14 maps produced;

• Hazards posted include those associated with temperature (much above/below, excessive heat), precipitation (heavy rain, heavy snow, ice, flooding), winds, waves, fire, severe weather and drought.

• Criteria for each hazard are specific in Station Duty Manual

• Collaborative effort with other NCEP Centers, RFCs, NWS Regions, WFOs.

U.S. Hazards Outlook

Probabilistic Framework• Probabilistic approach is being

pursued for each variable.

• Currently issuing temperature outlooks.

• Precipitation coming this year (planned).

• Future – winds, severe?

Excessive Heat: Experimental Week-2 excessive heat outlook being

developed by end of FY15 Q4. Experimental products not issued until Spring

2016. Targets combined temperature and humidity.

Upcoming Plans and Schedule

7/1/2014-7/3/2014

Excessive Heat (Heat Index > 105)

High Risk (60%)

Moderate Risk (40%)

Slight Risk (20%)

Planned: Week 3-4 Outlooks

• Work is currently ongoing in areas listed below:(1) Modification, enhancement and new development of empirical techniques (i.e.,

constructed analogue, regression, etc.) whose methodologies target MJO/ENSO,

trends and blocking

(2) Analysis of dynamical model guidance from a number of operational centers

including NCEP, ECMWF, JMA and Environment Canada

(3) Operational implementation at CPC of Coupled Linear Inverse Modeling (C-LIM)

techniques from ESRL

• Outlooks will need to capitalize on forecasts of opportunity

Week 3-4 Outlook

Precipitation Probability

Valid Dec. 16-29, 2014

Made: Dec. 1, 2014

Week 3-4 Outlook

Temperature Probability

Valid Dec. 16-29, 2014

Made: Dec. 1, 2014

Monthly/Seasonal Outlooks

Anywhere w/o color

Below: 33%Near: 33%Above: 33%

S. Alaska

Below: 7%Near: 33%Above: 60%

S. Carolina

Below: 27%Near: 33%Above: 40%

N

W. Oregon

Below: 40%Near: 33%Above: 27%

Seasonal and Monthly – 3rd Thursday of the month

Monthly – Updated last day of month

Mean Temperature/Accumulated Precipitation

Monthly/Seasonal Outlooks

• Forecasters review tools and data.

• Collaboration meeting kicks off the process with each forecaster bringing his/her maps.

• Discussions about competing influences and data caveats.

– What patterns matter most?– Data issues for models and statistical tools

• Lead Forecaster will flesh out full map series (26) and write discussion.

• Other products L3MTO and POE come from core maps.

Monthly/Seasonal Outlooks

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml

Drought Outlooks

Monthly

Seasonal

(created utilizing the aforementioned forecast tools & products)

US Drought Outlook History

• Originated in August 1999 (shortly after the US Drought Monitor became operational)—went public in March 2000;

• Intent is to present a simple national picture of where droughts will improve, persist, or develop;

• Issued SDOs continuously each month, with updates as required, by any of 5 CPC forecasters;

• Replaced updated SDO (released 1st Thursday of next month) with MDO (released last day of month) starting July 2013;

• Color-blind compliant colors started in Jan 2014, along with removal of arrows & text (cleaner);

• Scripting to automate basic DO creation & dissemination procedures starting late 2014 (more time for analysis);

• DO map formats changed to mimic DM map (early 2015);

• GIS overlay of DO input tools & forecasts – like DM (next);

Drought Outlook birth

Initial (Combined) DM & DO

19

OLDER

FORMAT

OLD

FORMAT

Seasonal Drought Outlook

2-Wk Soil Moisture

Constructed Analogue

Soil Model

Palmer 4-mo

Probabilities

CPC Seasonal

Outlook

NMME

Extended-Range

Forecasts

Climatology

Released 3rd

Thursday of

Month

Monthly Drought Outlook

Constructed Analogue

Soil Model

CPC Monthly

Outlook

Extended-Range

Forecasts

NMME

2-Wk Soil Moisture

7-Day QPF

Climatology

Released last

day of the Month

Climatology matters!!

AMJ’15 SDO (released Mar. 19)

Use the latest U.S. Drought Monitor

D0 & D1 shape file areas (& D2-D4)

Mar. 17, 2015 SDO

Start with 3/17/15 US Drought Monitor

25

From Tools - Determine if D1-D4 areas

will: Persist, , or be Removed;

and if D0 & normal areas will

From Tools - Determine if D1-D4 areas

will: Persist, , or be Removed;

and if D0 & normal areas will

DO needs to mimic the

GIS tool/product overlays

just like the DM.

DO Manual vs. Scripted: Workflow

S

S

S

S

S

S

S

S

Overlay Input Tools, Forecasts, and Products (like DM) for Analysis

How Are We Doing?

29Good Skill during developing La Nina & El Nino Mediocre Skill during ENSO Neutral & Summer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Existing Drought Developing Drought

Seasonal D. O. Verification (% of Pixels Hit) - Existing & Developing Drought

La Nina La NinaEl NinoAlmost

La Nina

Almost

El Nino

Almost

La Nina

El Nino

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

RAW FCST SCORE SCORE FOR AN ALL PERSISTENCE FCST RAW FCST SCORE linear trend

Seasonal D.O. Verification Scores (% of Pixels Hit)

The “Waiting

Forever for

El Nino”

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Seasonal D. O. Skill (Forecast Score minus Persistence Score)

The “Waiting

Forever for

El Nino”

56.3

45.9

73.374.3

69.7

9.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

OFFICIAL OUTLOOK

Forecast of Persistence

Forecast of Improvement or Removal

Forecast of Persistence

Forecasts for ALL Existing

Drought Areas

Drought Development

Seasonal Drought Outlook: Median Percent of AreaSuccessfully Forecast -- DJF 2009/10 - NDJ 2014/15 Median

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Score Baseline Skill

Monthly Drought Outlook Verification Statistics -- (Score, Baseline [or persistence], and skill)

MDO: We have tended to over-forecast changes to drought.

Next Steps in Drought Forecasting

Short-Term:

Modify 3-Month Outlook Categories (Some Improvement Removal,

Improvement, or Persistence;

Produce a 1-Month Outlook (ag-related) that replaces Updated 3-

Month USDO;

Create and Post Public Documentation (internet) for the USDO;

Real-Time USDO Verification: Make more objective & automated;

Verification: Redefine Skill & Persistence scores;

GIS procedures to better automate USDO production procedures;

GIS procedures to overlay USDO tools and products – make more

objective & automated like USDM;

X

X

X

X

X

Next Steps in Drought Forecasting

Long-Term:

Develop a R2O plan for long-term improvement of USDO:

Improvement of Precipitation forecasts in the models is highest priority;

Integration of Temperature, Precipitation, & Soil Moisture Forecasts;

Engage the drought community for ideas on improving the USDO:

Comparison of the (subjective) USDO with objective ones, such as objective SPI or

one based upon the PDI;

Continuation of the current manual forecast, with the objective forecasts used as input and

run in parallel;

Customer preferences between objective versus subjective USDOs;

Develop an objective, probabilistic (or actual) USDO [Obstacles: time, $, personnel]

• Blending short-term forecasts with seasonal forecasts;

• Improving skill of forecasts (especially Precipitation) at all time ranges;

• Providing useful information for both the agricultural and hydrologic community;

• Automation of USDO production and verification;

Challenges:

38

Experimental Objective Forecasts for March 2015 (made around March 1)

ESP UW

MSUPrinceton-MSU-EMC

CPC SPI6

NASA

39

THANK YOU!

Any Questions, contact:

(301) 683-3453