Covid War, UP Model:Strategies, Tactics & Impact

Prof. Manindra Agrawal and Team, IIT Kanpur

The UP Model

1. Ensure Livelihood

All citizens with special care of No

adverse impact on marginalized and migrant workers

3. Prevent Spread

Save lives by avoiding uncontrolled

spread of pandemic in society

4. Augment Healthcare

Capacity enhancement to cope

with additional pandemic load

2. Sustain Economy

Maintain economic growth while

combating pandemic simultaneously

Continuing economic activities risks rapid pandemic

spread resulting in collapse of healthcare infrastructure

Hence (3) & (4) must be executed well

Modeling Pandemic in Uttar Pradesh

Contact RateReach

Detection Ratio

SUTRA Model

SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and

Removed Approach) is a mathematical model created to model the progression of Covid-19.

It estimates from the daily reported cases, values of parameters governing the pandemic and number of undetected cases.

Contact Rate (β)

Measures how fast the

pandemic is spreading in a region.

Reach (ρ)

Measures the percentage of

population over which the pandemic is active.

Detection Ratio (ε)

Measures the ratio between

detected and total – including detected and undetected –active cases.

Livelihood of Migrant & Marginalized Population

Mobility Sustenance

Ensure mobility

Free bus services for

returning workers

Dedicated Shramik

trains in partnership with Indian Railways

Ambulance services for sick workers

Enable support

Provide 15D and 7D

sustenance package

Immediate Transfer

of Rs.1000 for migrant workers

DBT of Rs. 1000 for marginalized

sections of society

Employment

Provide jobs

Skill mapping of all

returned workers

Use of MGNREGA

for job creation

Local self-governing bodies utilized worker database for

employment cards

“Unemployment

rate of UP during

the second wave

was around half

of the national

rate.”

Source: Prowess monthly employment database

Unemployment Rates

Healthcare Manpower & Infrastructure

TTTT team per 1000 people

Two ASHAs, One Anganwadi worker,

One Anganwadi helper

Capacity building

Extensive training from UPTSU,

WHO, UNICEF, etc. on all major aspects of Covid-19

Safety and incentives

Insurance schemes like PMJJBY,

PMSBY, AKBY, etc.

25% of salary as incentive by GoUP

Test, Track, Treat, Tackle (TTTT) Approach

Healthcare Infrastructure

Largest network of hospitals,

ICU beds, Ventilators, and dedicated Covid-19 beds in India

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

4/19/2021 4/24/2021 4/29/2021 5/4/2021 5/9/2021 5/14/2021 5/19/2021 5/24/2021

Ox

yg

en

in

MT

Date

Supply Demand

Oxygen Management

Key Aspects

• Daily demand of 380MT till 12 April-21 jumped to 840MT by 25 April-21 (2.5 times in 13 days).

• First state to airlift empty tankers with help from IAF to reduce turn-around time (10hr saving).

• 57 dedicated Oxygen Express by IR carried a total of 3684 MT Oxygen.

• OxyTracker monitored real-time position of 133 Oxygen tankers

• Stringent Oxygen Audit saved around 30MT Oxygen per day

UP’s Chasing the Infection Strategy

0.10 0.34

0.65

1.43

2.092.93 2.05

2.01

4.13

4.34

2.90

2.46

4.623.59

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

3/30/2020 5/29/2020 7/28/2020 9/26/2020 11/25/2020 1/24/2021 3/25/2021 5/24/2021 7/23/2021 9/21/2021Active

Cases (

% o

f popula

tion)

Date

Kerala: NTPR

5.57

11.72

3.95 2.50

2.08

4.56 4.844.26

3.04

3.896.39

1.86

1.09

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

4/1/2020 6/30/2020 9/28/2020 12/27/2020 3/27/2021 6/25/2021 9/23/2021

Active

Cases (

% of

popula

tion)

Date

Maharashtra: NTPR

0.43

0.69

0.42

0.85

1.80

1.90

0.83

0.11

0.25 0.500.32

0.38

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

6/1/2020 7/31/2020 9/29/2020 11/28/2020 1/27/2021 3/28/2021 5/27/2021 7/26/2021 9/24/2021

Active

Cases (

% o

f popula

tion)

Date

UP: Ratio of TPR and Percentage of Active Cases

ContainingThe Spread

Without containment measures the peak would have been

more than 70,000 cases per day.

The timing of the restriction measures was near optimal.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2/1/2021 3/3/2021 4/2/2021 5/2/2021 6/1/2021

Infe

cti

on

s

Date

UP: 7-day Average of Daily New Infections

Model Computed Actual β = 0.59

Assam M

Delhi M

GujaratHaryana

Karnataka M

Maharashtra M

Madhya Pradesh

Rajasthan M Tamil Nadu M

Telangana M

Bihar

Punjab

Uttar Pradesh

Andhra PradeshChhattisgarhKerala

West BengalAssam S

Delhi S

Karnataka S

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu

Rajasthan S0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5 10 15 20 25

Adva

ncin

g m

easure

s t

o d

ecre

ase p

eak b

y 1

0%

(in d

ays)

Delaying measures to increase peak by 10% (in days)

Timing of Restriction Measures

Ongoing Efforts

Commissioning of 238 PSA plants have

resulted in 87,174 oxygen beds. All 549 PSA plants will result in more than 1.5L Oxygen

beds – largest in India

Oxygen Infrastructure Improvement

Extensive testing continues and the 70,000

surveillance committees are active – early detection of any new wave.

Continuing Testing Regime

Already 11Cr. Doses administered (40.3%

with one dose) and 11% fully vaccinated –should speed up.

Vaccination Drive

Planned 6700 ICU beds for children of

which around 97% is already setup should help with third wave

Pediatric Facilities

THANK YOUSuggestions and Discussions