covid-19resultsbrieﬁng · 1/14/2021 · figure 15....

New Hampshire COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING

COVID-19 Results Briefing

New Hampshire

January 14, 2021

This document contains summary information on the latest projections from the IHME model on COVID-19in New Hampshire. The model was run on January 13, 2021 with data through January 11, 2021.

Current situation

• Daily reported cases in the last week decreased to 700 per day on average compared to 800 the weekbefore (Figure 1).

• Daily deaths in the last week increased to 10 per day on average compared to 10 the week before (Figure2). This makes COVID-19 the number 1 cause of death in New Hampshire this week (Table 1).

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 27 states (Figure3). The Effective R in New Hampshire on December 31 was 1.05.

• We estimated that 13% of people in New Hampshire have been infected as of January 11 (Figure 4).• The daily death rate is greater than 4 per million in 47 states (Figure 6).

Trends in drivers of transmission

• In the last week, new mandates have been imposed in District of Columbia, Kentucky, Massachusetts,Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Washington. Mandates have been lifted in Kentucky, Pennsylvania,Washington, Wyoming (Table 2).

• Mobility last week was 28% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 8). Mobility was nearbaseline (within 10%) in no states. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in in 26 states.

• As of January 11 we estimated that 80% of people always wore a mask when leaving their homecompared to 80% last week (Figure 9). Mask use was lower than 50% in no states.

• There were 217 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on January 11 (Figure 10).• In New Hampshire 57.4% of people say they would accept a vaccine for COVID-19 and 20.8% say

they are unsure if they would accept one. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving aCOVID-19 vaccine ranges from 66% in Mississippi to 85% in Utah (Figure 12).

• We expect that 820,700 will be vaccinated by May 1 (Figure 13). With faster scale-up, the numbervaccinated could reach 820,700.

Projections

• In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, our model projects2,000 cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021. This represents 1,000 additional deaths from January 11 toMay 1 (Figure 14). Daily deaths will peak at 20 on February 2, 2021 (Figure 15).

• By May 1, 2021, we project that 300 lives will be saved by the projected vaccine rollout. If rapid rolloutof vaccine is achieved, 400 lives will be saved compared to a no vaccine scenario. As compared to a novaccine scenario, rapid rollout targeting high-risk individuals only could save 400 lives (Figure 14).

• If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 0 fewercumulative deaths compared to the reference scenario on May 1, 2021 (Figure 14).

• Under our mandates easing scenario, our model projects 2,000 cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021(Figure 14).

• We estimate that 33.4% of people will still be susceptible on May 1, 2021 (Figure 17).• The reference scenario assumes that 34 states will re-impose mandates by May 1, 2021 (Figure 18).

covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

New Hampshire COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING

• Figure 21 compares our reference scenario forecasts to other publicly archived models. Forecasts arewidely divergent.

• At some point from January through May 1, 42 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds(Figure 22). At some point from January through May 1, 45 states will have high or extreme stress onICU capacity (Figure 23).

Model updates

Methods have not been changed in this week’s update. Reported data on vaccination scale-up for selectcountries has led us to revise the expected rates of vaccination. For some countries, the revision has reducedthe expected vaccination rates, and for others – such as Israel – the revision has increased expected vaccinationrates.


New Hampshire CURRENT SITUATION

Current situation

Figure 1. Reported daily COVID-19 cases

0

250

500

750

1,000

Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21Month

Cou

nt

Daily cases



Table 1. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deathsof non-COVID causes throughout the year

Cause name Weekly deaths RankingCOVID-19 81 1Ischemic heart disease 45 2Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 20 3Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 18 4Stroke 14 5Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 14 6Drug use disorders 8 7Chronic kidney disease 8 8Colon and rectum cancer 7 9Diabetes mellitus 6 10

Figure 2a. Reported daily COVID-19 deaths

0

5

10

15

Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21

Dai

ly d

eath

s



Figure 2b. Estimated cumulative deaths by age group

0

5

10

15

20


Figure 4. Estimated percent of the population infected with COVID-19 on January 11, 2021

=35

Figure 5. Percent of COVID-19 infections detected. This is estimated as the ratio of reported dailyCOVID-19 cases to estimated daily COVID-19 infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model.

10

20

30

40

Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21

Per

cent

of i

nfec

tions

det

ecte

d

California Florida New Hampshire New York Texas



Figure 6. Daily COVID-19 death rate per 1 million on January 11, 2021

=8


New Hampshire CRITICAL DRIVERS

Critical drivers

Table 2. Current mandate implementation

Prim

ary

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Bor

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side

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Indi

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it: 6

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0 in

door

, 25

outd

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Gat

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5 in

door

, 50

outd

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herin

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0 in

door

, 100

out

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it: 1

00 in

door

, 250

out

door

Res

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clo

sed

Bar

s cl

osed

Res

taur

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/ ba

rs c

lose

d

Res

taur

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/ ba

rs c

urbs

ide

only

Gym

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ools

, oth

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isur

e cl

osed

Non

−es

sent

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etai

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sed

Non

−es

sent

ial r

etai

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ly

Non

−es

sent

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orkp

lace

s cl

osed

Sta

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me

orde

r

Sta

y ho

me

fine

Mas

k m

anda

te

Mas

k m

anda

te fi

ne

WyomingWisconsin

West VirginiaWashington

VirginiaVermont

UtahTexas

TennesseeSouth Dakota

South CarolinaRhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahoma

OhioNorth Dakota

North CarolinaNew York

New MexicoNew Jersey

New HampshireNevada

NebraskaMontanaMissouri

MississippiMinnesota

MichiganMassachusetts

MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa

IndianaIllinoisIdaho

HawaiiGeorgiaFlorida

District of ColumbiaDelaware

ConnecticutColoradoCaliforniaArkansas

ArizonaAlaska

Alabama

Mandate in place

Mandate in place (implemented this week)

Mandate in place (update from previous reporting)

No mandate

No mandate (lifted this week)

No mandate (update from previous reporting)

*Not all locations are measured at the subnational level.



Figure 7. Total number of social distancing mandates (including mask use)

WyomingWisconsin

West VirginiaWashington

VirginiaVermont

UtahTexas

TennesseeSouth Dakota

South CarolinaRhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahoma

OhioNorth Dakota



New HampshireNevada




MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa



District of ColumbiaDelaware

ConnecticutColoradoCaliforniaArkansas

ArizonaAlaska

Alabama

Mar

20

Apr 2

0

May

20

Jun

20

Jul 2

0

Aug

20

Sep

20

Oct 2

0

Nov 2

0

Dec 2

0

Jan

21

# of mandates

0

1−5

6−10

11−15

16−20

20−25

Mandate imposition timing



Figure 8a. Trend in mobility as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline

−50

−25

0

Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21

Per

cent

red

uctio

n fr

om a

vera

ge m

obili

ty


Figure 8b. Mobility level as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline(percent) on January 11, 2021

=−10



Figure 8c. Trend in visits to restaurants as measured through cell phone data compared to 2019 average

WYWI

WVWAVAVTUTTXTNSDSCRIPA

OROKOHNDNCNYNMNJNHNVNEMTMOMSMNMI

MAMDMELAKYKSIAINILIDHI

GAFLDCDECTCOCAARAZAKAL

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

% of 2019 mean

1.2+

(1,1.2]

(0.8,1]

(0.6,0.8]

(0.4,0.6]

(0.2,0.4]

(0,0.2]

Figure 8d. Trend in visits to bars as measured through cell phone data compared to 2019 average

WYWI






% of 2019 mean

1.2+

(1,1.2]

(0.8,1]

(0.6,0.8]

(0.4,0.6]

(0.2,0.4]

(0,0.2]



Figure 8e. Trend in visits to elementary & secondary schools as measured through cell phone data comparedto 2019 average

WYWI






% of 2019 mean

1.2+

(1,1.2]

(0.8,1]

(0.6,0.8]

(0.4,0.6]

(0.2,0.4]

(0,0.2]

Figure 8f. Trend in visits to department stores as measured through cell phone data compared to 2019average

WYWI






% of 2019 mean

1.2+

(1,1.2]

(0.8,1]

(0.6,0.8]

(0.4,0.6]

(0.2,0.4]

(0,0.2]



Figure 9a. Trend in the proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home

0

20

40

60

80


Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n


Figure 9b. Proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home on January11, 2021

=90%



Figure 10a. Trend in COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people

0

250

500

750

1000


Test

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion


Figure 10b. COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on December 31, 2020

=500



Figure 11. Increase in the risk of death due to pneumonia on February 1 2020 compared to August 1 2020

=80%



Figure 12. This figure shows the estimated proportion of the adult (18+) population that is open toreceiving a COVID-19 vaccine based on Facebook survey responses (yes and unsure).

85%

Figure 13. The number of people who receive any vaccine and those who are immune, accounting for efficacy,loss to follow up for two-dose vaccines, partial immunity after one dose, and immunity after two doses.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

0

20

40

60

Dec 2

0

Jan

21

Feb

21

Mar

21

Apr 2

1

May

21

Peo

ple

Percent of adult population

Reference rollout Rapid rollout

Solid lines represent the total vaccine doses, dashed lines represent effective vaccination


New Hampshire PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS

Projections and scenarios

We produce six scenarios when projecting COVID-19. The reference scenario is our forecast of what we thinkis most likely to happen. We assume that if the daily mortality rate from COVID-19 reaches 8 per million,social distancing (SD) mandates will be re-imposed. The mandate easing scenario is what would happen ifgovernments continue to ease social distancing mandates with no re-imposition. The universal mask mandatescenario is what would happen if mask use increased immediately to 95% and social distancing mandateswere re-imposed at 8 deaths per million. These three scenarios assume our reference vaccine delivery scale upwhere vaccine delivery will scale to full capacity over 90 days.

The rapid vaccine rollout scenario assumes that vaccine distribution will scale up to full delivery capacity inhalf the time as the reference delivery scenario and that the maximum doses that can be delivered per day istwice as much as the reference delivery scenario. The rapid vaccine rollout to high-risk populations scenariois the same but high-risk populations are vaccinated before essential workers or other adults. The no vaccinescenario is the same as our reference scenario but with no vaccine use.



Figure 14. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths until May 01, 2021 for six scenarios

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

50

100

150

Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21

Cum

ulat

ive

deat

hsC

umulative deaths per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Continued SD mandate easing

Rapid rollout

Rapid rollout to high−risk

No vaccine

Figure 15. Daily COVID-19 deaths until May 01, 2021 for six scenarios

0

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Dai

ly d

eath

sD

aily deaths per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use


Rapid rollout


No vaccine



Figure 16. Daily COVID-19 infections until May 01, 2021 for six scenarios

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

0

50

100

150

200

Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Dai

ly in

fect

ions

Daily infections per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use


Rapid rollout


No vaccine

Figure 17. Susceptible population, accounting for infections and people immune through vaccination

0

500,000

1,000,000

0

25

50

75

100

Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21

Peo

ple

susc

eptib

leP

ercent susceptible

Reference scenario

Universal mask use


Rapid rollout


No vaccine



Figure 18. Month of assumed mandate re-implementation. (Month when daily death rate passes 8 permillion, when reference scenario model assumes mandates will be re-imposed.)

January 2021

February 2021

March 2021

April 2021No mandates before May 1 2021



Figure 19. Forecasted percent infected with COVID-19 on May 01, 2021

=45

Figure 20. Daily COVID-19 deaths per million forecasted on May 01, 2021 in the reference scenario

=8



Figure 21. Comparison of reference model projections with other COVID modeling groups. For thiscomparison, we are including projections of daily COVID-19 deaths from other modeling groups when available:Delphi from the Massachussets Institute of Technology (Delphi; https://www.covidanalytics.io/home),Imperial College London (Imperial; https://www.covidsim.org), The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL;https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/), and the SI-KJalpha model from the University of Southern California(SIKJalpha; https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19). Daily deaths from other modeling groupsare smoothed to remove inconsistencies with rounding. Regional values are aggregates from availble locationsin that region.

4

8

12

16

Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21Date

Dai

ly d

eath

s

Models

IHME

Delphi

LANL

SIKJalpha


https://www.covidanalytics.io/homehttps://www.covidsim.orghttps://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19


Figure 22. The estimated inpatient hospital usage is shown over time. The percent of hospital beds occupiedby COVID-19 patients is color coded based on observed quantiles of the maximum proportion of beds occupiedby COVID-19 patients. Less than 5% is considered low stress, 5-9% is considered moderate stress, 10-19% isconsidered high stress, and greater than 20% is considered extreme stress.

WyomingWisconsin

West VirginiaWashington, DC

WashingtonVirginia

VermontUtah

TexasTennessee

South DakotaSouth Carolina

Rhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahoma

OhioNorth Dakota



New HampshireNevada




MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa



DelawareConnecticut

ColoradoCaliforniaArkansas

ArizonaAlaska

Alabama

Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Stress level

Low

Moderate

High

Extreme

All hospital beds



Figure 23. The estimated intensive care unit (ICU) usage is shown over time. The percent of ICU bedsoccupied by COVID-19 patients is color coded based on observed quantiles of the maximum proportion ofICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Less than 10% is considered low stress, 10-29% is consideredmoderate stress, 30-59% is considered high stress, and greater than 60% is considered extreme stress.

WyomingWisconsin

West VirginiaWashington, DC

WashingtonVirginia

VermontUtah

TexasTennessee

South DakotaSouth Carolina

Rhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahoma

OhioNorth Dakota



New HampshireNevada




MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa



DelawareConnecticut

ColoradoCaliforniaArkansas

ArizonaAlaska

Alabama

Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Stress level

Low

Moderate

High

Extreme

Intensive care unit beds



Table 3. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality in the full year 2020. Deaths fromCOVID-19 are projections of cumulative deaths on Jan 1, 2021 from the reference scenario. Deaths fromother causes are from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (rounded to the nearest 100).

Cause name Annual deaths RankingIschemic heart disease 2,300 1Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 1,000 2Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 900 3COVID-19 759 4Stroke 700 5Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 700 6Drug use disorders 400 7Chronic kidney disease 400 8Colon and rectum cancer 400 9Diabetes mellitus 300 10


New Hampshire MORE INFORMATION

More information

Data sources:

Mask use data sources include PREMISE; Facebook Global symptom survey (This research is based onsurvey results from University of Maryland Social Data Science Center) and the Facebook United Statessymptom survey (in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University); Kaiser Family Foundation; YouGovCOVID-19 Behaviour Tracker survey.

Vaccine hesitancy data are from the COVID-19 Beliefs, Behaviors, and Norms Study, a survey conducted onFacebook by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (https://covidsurvey.mit.edu/).

Data on vaccine candidates, stages of development, manufacturing capacity, and pre-purchasing agreementsare primarily from Linksbridge and supplemented by Duke University.

A note of thanks:

We wish to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our covid-19 estimationefforts possible.

More information:

For all COVID-19 resources at IHME, visit http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Questions? Requests? Feedback? Please contact us at https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.


https://covidsurvey.mit.edu/https://www.healthdata.org/covid/acknowledgementshttp://www.healthdata.org/covidhttps://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us

COVID-19 Results BriefingNew HampshireJanuary 14, 2021Current situationTrends in drivers of transmissionProjectionsModel updates

Current situationCritical driversProjections and scenariosMore information

covid-19resultsbrieﬁng · 1/14/2021 · figure 15....

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