coveted industry insight
DESCRIPTION
Coveted Industry Insight. Opportunities + Challenges + Limitations. PV industry. " I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” - Thomas Edison 1931. Price of Solar (PV) Power. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Coveted Industry Insight Opportunities
+ Challenges
+Limitations
PV industry
"I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy.What a source of power!
I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
-Thomas Edison1931
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Solar Based Generation
Price of Solar (PV) PowerRs
. / k
Wh
Source | EPIA 3
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Solar Based Generation
Rs. /
kW
h
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Coal Based Generation
Parity with Coal based power
Parity with Coal
2026
Source | EPIA + CRISIL 4
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Solar Based Generation
Rs. /
kW
h
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Gas Based Gen-eration
Parity with Gas based power
Parity with Gas
2019
Source | EPIA + CRISIL 5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Gas Based Gen-eration
Coal Based Generation
Solar Based Generation
Grid ParityRs
. / k
Wh
Source | EPIA + CRISIL 6
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Solar Based Generation
Rs. /
kW
h
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Global cumulative Installed Capacity
Global Cumulative Capacity
Source | EPIA + Greenpeace 7
GW
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Solar Based Generation
-
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
Global cumulative Installed Capacity
8
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Indian Cumulative Installed Capacity
Cumulative capacity Global v/s IndiaRs
. / k
Wh
Source | EPIA + Greenpeace
GW
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Solar Based Generation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Indian Cumulative Installed Capacity
Indian Cumulative capacityRs
. / k
Wh
Source | EPIA + Greenpeace 9
GW
OpportunitiesIndian Market
20 GW of PV by 20201
Investment of ~ $50 bn2
This to actualize would need…
.…per year till 2020
8420
20,000
MnMntonnes
Modules (250 Wp)CellsPolysilicon Feedstock
1 EPIA Generation VI 2 Assuming $ 2.5/ Wpsource
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Market SegmentGrid Connected(13 GW)
• Utility Scale Plants
• Roof top
Off grid (4 GW)
• Captive Industrial Use
• Substitution of DG Sets
• Micro Grid
Rural Off grid (3 GW)
• Rural Electrification
• Rural Applications
Micro - finance
Subsidies and
Schemes
FiTs +Funding by Various
Financial Institutions
+Trading RECs
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• 252,685 Cell towers currently run on Diesel1
– 50% powered by PV (≈ 2.5GW)
• 76 mn Un-Electrified households2
– 2-3% connected by Off- grid PV (≈ 2GW)
• Captive Industrial use of Diesel (8,648 MW)3
– Replacing 15% by 2020 (≈ 1.3 GW)
• Rural applications – 20 million lighting systems (≈ 1GW)
Decentralized Distribution Generation / Off-grid
Uses of PV (Rural India)
Electrifying homes, Villages, CSCs
Power SmallIndustries
Telecommunication (PV/Diesel Hybrid)
Water supply and irrigation
1. Annual report Dept. of Telecom2. Towards India Evergreen. India Infrastructure Report 3i3. CEA. “All India Electricity Statistics: General Review 2009.” New Delhi
source
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Transmission & Distribution (T&D)
T&D dependent applications
Grid• Utility scale• Industrial• Roof-top• Tail end
65%(13 GW)
Few
Resilience by clustering the projects in land pockets- Need to manage grid at multiple
locations
T&D independent applications
Off- Grid• Rural electrification• Replacing DG sets• Power small industries• Irrigation
35%(7 GW)
Large
Can be connected to grid atany point in time once itStrengthens
Types
Capacities
Projects
Setup
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Reforms in the Rural Sector
Reforms AchievedTarget
Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana
(RGGVY)
Village Energy Security Programme
(VESP)
Remote Village Electrification
(RVE)
Electrify 125,000 villages 23.4 million BPL households
to be connected
Villages between 25–200 households
Electrification of villages with 300+ inhabitants
84,618 villages electrified12+ million BPL households
connected
80 test projects approved54 commissioned
6,867hamlets and villages
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2000 - 01 2001 - 02 2002 - 03 2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 100
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
cumulative no of villages electri-fied
Pace of Rural Electrification
Annual Report – Rural Electrification Corporation source
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No.
of v
illag
es e
lect
rified
Technologies
Thin Film
CSP
C-Si
C-Si
Thin Film
CSP
CSP
C-Si
Thin Film
• Efficient in high temperature and diffused sunlight situations• Average daily energy generation could effectively be more than c-Si • Avg daily energy generation observed- 3141 kWH1
• Suited Application • For sites where land is not a constraint
• Well established solution > 80% of PV installations• Avg. daily energy generation observed- 3012 kWH2 • Most economical solution where land is scarce• Suited Application
• Best solution for Rooftop systems • Hybrid with Diesel Gensets for telcom towers
• Offers energy storage capability• Viable solution for nighttime peak demand and base load requirements • Availability of water might be a constraining factor• Suited Application
• Hybrid with conventional thermal system
1. Chandrapur Thin film Plant2. Asansol c-Si plant
source16
• Financing– ≈ $50 Billion required over the next 10 years (Equity + Debt)
• Lack of trained manpower– 1,00,000 trained and specialized personnel required
• Grid extension per km*
– Between $8,000 and $10,000– $22,000 in difficult terrains
• Up-gradation to Smart Grid– Could reduce need for storage and cut investment by 30-40%
Challenges
* World Bank studysource
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Thank You
“Find purpose, the means will follow”