country food security update -...
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UGANDA Food Security Update December 2008/January 2009
Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, December 2008/January 2009
FEWS NET Uganda Tel: +256-41-4532530 Andrew Mutengu
FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
www.fews.net/uganda
• About 970,000 people — 95 percent of the population — in Karamoja are food insecure, compelling an Emergency Operation (EMOP) by the World Food Programme (WFP) to stem widespread hunger. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in northern Uganda requiring assistance has dropped from 1.2 million to about 765,900, bringing the total number of vulnerable people to 1.83 million, including a total of 95,000 refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan.
• Second‐season harvests in the other bimodal areas
should ensure normal household food access and security.
• Vaccination against Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR),
which affects goats and sheep, had covered about 700,000 livestock (30 percent of the population) by the end of December 2008. Vaccination of cattle against Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) was hampered by limited vaccines, but it should resume in February 2009 when UN FAO expects new drugs. About 900,000 cattle (75 percent of the population) have been vaccinated. Control measures have reduced the incidence of Foot and Mouth Disease.
• 2008 commodity prices remained higher than the five‐year average and rose from double to three‐digit levels for
crops such as maize and sorghum in select key markets. This indicates that market‐dependent households experienced diminishing access to food over the year. Continuing high prices will mean even less access for these households.
Seasonal calendar and critical events
Source: FEWS NET Uganda
KITGUM
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NAKAPIRIPIRIT
Generally food secure
Moderately food insecureHighly food insecure
FEWS NET Food InsecuritySeverity Scale
Extremely food insecure
Famine
Lake
Source : WFP, UN FAO, GoU; Graphic: FEWS NET Uganda
For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale
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Food security summary Improvements in food production and access to food in northern Uganda, along with declining population vulnerability, has led to a 15 percent fall in the number of food insecure people, from 2.15 million before the last quarter of 2008 to an estimated 1.83 million currently. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in transition, in unstable food security conditions, and still requiring assistance has dropped to from about 1.2 million to about 765,900. Second‐season harvests, which started in December 2008, continue, and support normal household food access and security in the rest of the country’s bimodal areas. At the same time, the number of vulnerable people in Karamoja has risen to an estimated 970,000 (about 95 percent of the population), up from 750,000 before the last quarter of 2008, according to the UN World Food Programme (WFP). Most households in Karamoja lack food stocks and have limited incomes, and thus have limited access to markets, due to high food prices. Their coping strategies are dwindling, and they are engaging in activities that may cause irreparable long‐term harm to their livelihoods. The majority of people eat a single, much smaller meal than is typical, and are in dire need of assistance according to late 2008 assessments by the WFP, district authorities, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) working in Karamoja, and other partners. To minimize the impact of food insecurity on vulnerable people, WFP developed a nine‐month Emergency Operation (EMOP) to run from February to October 2009, which will cover about 969,140 people in five districts — Abim, Kaabong, Kotido, Moroto, and Nakapiripirit — with some getting rations to meet 70 percent, and others 100 percent, of the daily caloric needs. The most‐affected population is in Kaabong, Kotido, and Moroto, where conditions are most critical. The agency will also provide targeted supplementary and therapeutic feeding to 124,180 people through hospitals and health centers to stem malnutrition and health‐related impacts in the region. An August/September 2008 study of children six to 59 months of age and women of reproductive age (15–49 years) found volatile nutritional levels, with persistently high mortality rates attributed to disease, food insecurity, and civil insecurity. The survey found global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates of 9.5 percent, compared to 10.9 percent in February 2008. Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rates were registered at 1.2 percent, which is slightly lower than the 1.6 percent in February 2008. The surge in food needs, estimated at 89,082 MT (USD 66.633 million), is a strain on WFP, which has only secured about 10 percent of the total requirements through expected stock arrivals, and is seeking new pledges to meet the 80,099 MT (USD 59.914 million) shortfall. Vaccinations against Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), a fatal viral disease, had covered 700,000 goats and sheep out of 2.2 million animals by the end of 2008, and continue in areas of Karamoja as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in conjunction with district veterinary departments, fights to control the epidemic, which has also been reported in the neighboring districts of Amuria, Kapchorwa, Katakwi, Lira, and Pader. Sufficient vaccines are available and are being shared with all affected areas to reduce the spread and impact of the disease. Vaccination against Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) which is endemic in Karamoja, supported by the Government of Uganda (GoU), UN FAO, and Oxfam, in conjunction with district veterinary departments, has stalled due to a shortage of vaccines. More vaccines are expected by the end of January 2009, so the process should resume in February. Livestock experts recommend blanket vaccinations over the next three years to completely control the two diseases. An outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease that was reported in Abim and Kotido districts in October 2008 has been contained through treatment and quarantine. With no new cases recorded since December, the prevalence should decline by February, leading to the lifting of quarantines currently in place. Unseasonable rains in the last week of January are helping replenish ground water and may help vegetation regeneration, thereby improving livestock access to water and pastures during the ongoing normal dry season. Improvements in civil security continue to foster resettlement in the north, where an estimated 60 percent of the previously displaced population is now reported to have returned home or is in transit camps. This movement continues, despite increased concern about reprisals by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in response to the joint operations that the Governments of Uganda, Congo, and Sudan took against them in December 2008. That said, no LRA have been reported in the northern region for the last 18 months — only isolated banditry by armed gangs. The relocation to transit camps and back home has enabled more people to gradually increase their access to cultivable land and improve their food production since 2007, helping them to reduce dependence on assistance. As mentioned previously, the people’s movement back home is still hampered by limited social services in the return areas, including limited access to health, water, sanitation, and education. Thatch for roofing is also scarce, especially during the ongoing dry season, thereby limiting the construction of houses.
UGANDA Food Security Update December 2008/January 2009
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Given the improvements in food security and humanitarian conditions in northern Uganda, humanitarian agencies and NGOS are scaling down emergency responses in IDP camps. With declining food needs in northern Uganda, WFP is reducing the number of beneficiaries and ration size under general feeding, and adopting programs to target specific groups, including food for work, and to improve self‐reliance; for example, through a cash/voucher program to enable people to procure production inputs. Targeted programs for supplementary and therapeutic feeding are also being used to address specific malnutrition problems. Through its revised Protracted Relief and Recovery Program (PRRO), which does not include the Karamoja population, WFP plans to provide food to about 765,900 IDPs and 95,000 refugees, of which about 670,820 IDPs and at least 85,000 refugees will receive only a 50 percent of the daily caloric needs. The program, which requires 93,318 MT of food (USD 104.896 million), faces a shortfall of 66,853 MT (USD 75.039 million). The agency is seeking new resources, mostly from international donors, to meet the shortfall. Vaccination and quarantine against Foot and Mouth Disease have been implemented in several parts of Kitgum and Pader districts, where outbreaks were reported in late 2008. Meanwhile, treatment and adoption of hygienic measures have been effective in controlling Hepatitis E virus, an infection that affects the human liver and is mainly spread through the ingestion of contaminated water or food. The virus was reported in northern Uganda, and is of particular concern in areas with high population density and poor access to clean water and sanitation. The UN estimates that some 40,000 refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have come to Uganda. About 6,500 are being hosted by communities in the border districts of Kisoro and Kanungu, while about 10,000 are in initial holding sites managed by GoU and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) close to the border; the rest have been settled in the Nakivale Refugee Settlement in Isingiro district. The refugees are being cared for by the GoU and UN agencies, including UNHCR, WFP, and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). An initial budget of USD 7.5 million is required to meet the needs of the refugees over the next six months. Outside of the vulnerable communities, continuing second‐season harvests and replenished food stocks support normal access to food and food security in the bimodal areas, despite the high market prices. Seasonal progress
Figure 2. Dekadal rainfall estimates vs. long-term average, December 2008 and part of January 2009
1 to 10 December 11 to 20 December 21 to 31 December
1 to 10 11 to 20 January
Source: USGS/EDC; Graphics: FEWS NET Uganda, January 2009
Second season harvests are almost over in the bimodal districts of central and eastern Uganda as well as parts of the north, where the long‐cycle (April to November) sorghum has been harvested since early December. Normal harvests are reported for cereals, pulses, oil, and other crops, and dry conditions have helped farmers dry their harvested crops. Meteosat imagery (Figure 2), which provides comparative rainfall estimates across the country during December 2008 and part of January 2009, corroborates ground‐station observations that overall conditions are normal for the period.
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UGANDA Food Security Update December 2008/January 2009
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The second and major season in the west and southwest is ongoing. The bean harvest has already started and initial projections are for a normal harvest, while a large percentage of the cereal crop is still maturing in the fields and harvests will begin toward the end of January. Cooking banana (matooke) production is reportedly normal in Bushenyi, Mbarara, and Ntungamo districts (in the southwest) and in Masaka (south), where it is a staple crop. These districts are major suppliers to Kampala and other Ugandan towns as well as Rwanda. Most farmers normally plant new banana around this time, and it’s when most of the crop is in the pollination and flowering stages for fruit that will be harvested toward the middle to the end of the year. Cassava and sweet potato supplies are normal across the country. Apart from harvesting, the main farming activity now is land clearing and preparation in bimodal areas as farmers get ready for the start of the first season rains expected in March. In late February, farmers in parts of the east and north normally plant millet (commonly known as dry planting) to ensure that the rains find the seed in the ground for maximum germination. Current dry conditions in the north and east also favor cotton harvesting and drying. Cotton was a major cash crop in the 1960s and is gradually regaining prominence. Despite the dryness, normal livestock conditions are reported in agro‐pastoral areas of central, southern, and southwestern Uganda, where available water and vegetation afford adequate access to water and pastures. Livestock health is normal with no known outbreaks of diseases in these areas.
Figure 3. Nominal wholesale maize prices in Kampala and Masindi, Jan. to Dec. 2008 vs. Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2007 average
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Masindi 5yr aveMarkets, trade, and food access Kampala 2008 Masindi 2008
Source: Market Information Service; Graphic: FEWS NET/Uganda
Figure 4. Nominal wholesale sorghum prices in Lira and Soroti, Jan. to Dec. 2008 vs. Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2007 average
Nominal crop prices remain higher than the five‐year average, continuing a trend observed for most of the past 12 months, and implying reduced access to food for market‐dependent households. The supply of new commodity stocks (maize, millet, sorghum, beans, banana, etc.) entering the market has gradually increased since December, following an increase in dry crop supplies from second‐season harvests. Root crops and tubers (cassava, yams, potatoes, and sweet potatoes) are abundant across the country; Kumi and Soroti districts in the east are the main commercial suppliers of sweet potatoes. Mubende and Mityana in central Uganda, Mbale in eastern Uganda, and Kabale in the southwest are the main suppliers of Irish potatoes, which are a major source of income for households in these districts.
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The increasing supplies have not stemmed high and still‐rising commodity prices, which have been mainly influenced by high fuel prices and double‐digit inflation. High local demand to meet household and institutional needs coupled with demand in Kenya and Sudan have kept prices higher than the five‐year average. Figures 3 and 4 show rising prices throughout 2008, except for a fall in December sorghum prices in Soroti.
Soroti 2008
Source: Market Information Service; Graphic: FEWS NET/Uganda
Overall, 2008 maize prices in Masindi (a production area) and Kampala (a consumption market) have risen from 16 and 29 percent, respectively, above the five‐
UGANDA Food Security Update December 2008/January 2009
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year average at the beginning of the year to a record 163 and 189 percent at the end of December 2008. Sorghum prices have followed similar trends over the same period, indicating diminishing access to food for market‐dependent households, thus limiting their access to staples and alternative foods, such as maize flour.
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ANNEX: Uganda Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009
Monthly prices in Uganda are supplied by MIS/Farmgain Africa Ltd.
Cooking banana (matoke), dry cassava chips, sorghum, millet, beans, and white maize are important food commodities for Ugandans. The staple food varies by region. Matoke is most important in the central, western, and southwestern regions; millet in the east; and sorghum in the east, north and northeast. Cassava chips, beans, and white maize are also very important for a significant part of population; cassava chips are especially important in eastern (Soroti), northern, and northwestern (Arua) Uganda. In Mbarara and Kampala, matoke is most important commodity for all households. Lira and Soroti depend heavily on sorghum and millet and also represent a supply source for Karamoja. Beans are consumed across the country, but monitored in Kampala and Lira: the latter of which is also a production area. Masindi is a production and commercial area for white maize.
ANNEX: Uganda Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009
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