countering hybrid threat experiment€¦ · dimensional threat requires nato to understand and...
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Countering Hybrid Threat Experiment
NATO Operational Analysis Workshop 2011
15 June 2011
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John Caldwell
Mark Vinson
Institute for Defense Analyses
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Agenda
• Background
• Aim & Objectives
• What is an Experiment?
• CHT Experiment Considerations
• CHT Approach
• Final Thoughts
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Background • Modern security environment contains a broad and evolving set of
challenges to the security of NATO’s territory and populations
• Many regions and countries…witnessing the acquisition of substantial,
modern military capabilities…resulting in consequences for international
stability & Euro-Atlantic security that are difficult to predict
o proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction
o terrorism…terrorists with nuclear, chemical, biological & radiological
capabilities
o instability or conflict beyond NATO borders…fostering extremism, terrorism,
trans-national illegal activities such as trafficking in arms, narcotics, and people
o cyber attacks…from foreign militaries, intelligence services, criminals,
extremists, or terrorists
o reliance on vital communication, transport and transit routes...and its impact
on international trade, energy security
o improvements in technologies…lasers, electronic warfare, space
o environmental impacts….climate change, water scarcity, energy
Source: NATO’s Strategic
Concept, Nov 2010
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Background (2)
Hybrid threats: Description
“Hybrid threats are those posed by
adversaries, with the ability to
simultaneously employ conventional
and non-conventional means
adaptively in pursuit of their
objectives”
IMSM-0292-2010, dated 31 May 10
• NATO had ―Soviet Military Power‖ series
during the Cold War
• Complex trans-national and multi-
dimensional threat requires NATO to
understand and define potential
adversaries in a rapidly changing security
environment
• Led to draft of the Military Contribution to
Countering Hybrid Threats concept paper:
a high level concept with an intellectual,
overarching discussion of future threats; a
potential framework response (military
contribution); key implications for NATO
• What else is it trying to achieve? Influence
Defense Planning; drive doctrinal
development, education and training; align
transformational work
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Countering Hybrid Threat Experiment
Aim & Objectives
Aim
To investigate the utility and feasibility of the MCCHT concept and develop
with both military and civilian actors an understanding of potential NATO
approaches in addressing the identified key challenges areas.
Objectives
a. Assess the utility and feasibility of the concept framework elements in
enabling NATO to counter hybrid threats.
b. Identify appropriate military contributions within a wider comprehensive
approach to countering hybrid threats.
c. Explore the MCCHT concept amongst the community of interest.
d. Inform the Inter Staff Group in support of NATO Defense and Deterrence
Posture Review and identify potential link with NATO Comprehensive
Approach Action Plan.
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Experimentation:
“Based on a conceptual rationale, an experiment is a controlled
investigation to discover information, confirm or disprove a
hypothesis or formally validate a concept.” (MC 583 - Policy for NATO CD&E)
What is an Experiment?
Type Aim
Discovery
Introduce novel systems, concepts, organizational structures,
technologies, or other elements to a setting where their use can be
observed and catalogued.
Hypothesis
Advance knowledge by seeking to prove/disprove specific hypotheses
or to discover their limiting conditions, or to test whole theories or
observable hypotheses derived from such theories.
Validation
To provide the final demonstrated evidence that the prototype
capability can operate within theatre and will improve operational
effectiveness
Experiment Categories
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What is an Experiment?(2)
Forums for Experimentation
Exercises
Others (incl.
stand-alone
Events)
Operational
Theatre
Command Post Exercise (HQs)
Computer-Assisted Exercise (HQs)
Crisis Management Exercise (CMX)
Live Exercise (LIVEX)
Limited Objective Exp (LOE)
Multi-National Exp (MNE)
War Games
Battlelabs
Workshops/Seminars
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CHT Experiment Considerations
• Broad and shallow vs. narrow and deep: Desire was to get
deep enough to develop actionable recommendations; however…
o Do we truly have a good understanding of the complexity of
hybrid threats to drill deep?
o Large number of broad issues & many variables
o Large number of participants from many diverse fields
o Limited time (5-days)
• Can’t solve many complex challenges in one big bite. How can
we craft a comprehensive, campaign approach?
CHT Experiment is a discovery event intended to develop and
refine conceptual ideas and identify follow-on requirements
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Generalized Insights
Analytical Roadmap: An Inductive Approach Achieving Analytical Rigor with a Subjective Analysis
Understand Environment &
Threat
Deal With Environment &
Threat
Implications for NATO (Partnerships
& Capabilities)
Implications for MCCHT Concept
Scenario & Experience-Based Insights
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Compare and Contrast Many Perspectives Achieving Analytical Rigor with a Subjective Analysis
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Plenary
Panel 1 Panel 2 Panel 3
Sub-Panel 1A
Sub-Panel 1B
Sub-Panel 2A
Sub-Panel 2B
Sub-Panel 3A
Sub-Panel 3B
Senior Advisor
Devil’s Advocate
Analysts
Rapporteurs
Senior Advisor
Devil’s Advocate
Analysts
Rapporteurs
Senior Advisor
Devil’s Advocate
Analysts
Rapporteurs
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Creativity versus Time
• Large scope and scale drove a more
controlled structure (―time is the enemy‖)
• Facilitators worked to encourage creative-
thinking within a prescribed ―sand box‖
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Aim & Objectives Top-Level Questions
“Roadmap” Questions
Output Templates
General Specific
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Data Collection
• Multiple and redundant sources
– Observation Collection Program—Database
Tool
– Analysts and Rapporteurs
– Panel presentations and AAR input
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Analysis value was gained from capturing the discussions of ideas;
must generate and capture discussions
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Preparation
• Analysis plan: supports aim & objectives; drives design
• Experiment design: requires close collaboration with analysis team
• Manning: quality participants essential; right mix of expertise & organizations
• Admin-logistics (site survey; IT & admin support; host-nation support): not an after-thought
• Rehearsal: test plan and train key personnel
• Training: facilitators must be brought in early
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Scenario Purpose and Products
• Scenario’s Purpose:
– Common context for discussion by different panels
– Illustrates real-world hybrid threat issues
– Supports analysis plan requirements
• Scenario Products:
– World News Network
– Tasking Mechanism
– Environmental Conditions
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Scenario Thoughts
• Why Fictitious?
– Avoids real-world political
sensitivities
– Contiguous and regional
nations
• Why future timeframe
(2016)?
– Provides ―steady-state,‖ non-
crisis context
– Disconnected from current
events
• Complex versus complicated
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Scenario is important tool to support analysis plan, but is often politically sensitive.
Keep it simple!
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Final Thoughts
• Experiment aim: test concept or develop ideas? Or Both?
• The research question architecture was a necessary evil due to scope requirements and time constraints
– Focused and helped pace discussions, but…
– Opportunity cost of approach? Did we stifle or prevent valuable discussions??
– What if most valuable ideas in the panels were not anticipated in the questions?
• Why not a seminar wargame?
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Questions? POC Information:
John Caldwell: [email protected]; 703-338-2706
Mark Vinson: [email protected]; 757-412-5849
NATO POCs:
NATO’s Lead Analyst: Alex Smethurst; [email protected]; 757-747-4271
MCCHT Concept: Lt Col Rich Hills; [email protected]; 757-747-3268