cost of capital in the current environment - september 2021
TRANSCRIPT
Duff & Phelps-Recommended
Equity Risk Premium
Cost of Capital in the Current EnvironmentCOVID-19 Update – September 2021
About Duff & Phelps, A Kroll Business - For nearly 100 years, Duff & Phelps has helped clients make confident decisions in the areas of valuation, real estate, taxation and transfer pricing, disputes, M&A advisory and other corporate transactions. For more information, visit www.duffandphelps.com.About Kroll - Kroll is the world’s premier provider of services and digital products related to valuation, governance, risk and transparency. We work with clients across diverse sectors in the areas of valuation, expert services, investigations, cyber security, corporate finance, restructuring, legal and business solutions, data analytics andregulatory compliance. Our firm has nearly 5,000 professionals in 30 countries and territories around the world. For more information, visit www.kroll.com.M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United States are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. Pagemill Partners is a Division of Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United Kingdom are provided byDuff & Phelps Securities Ltd. (DPSL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Duff & Phelps India Private Limited under a category 1 merchant banker license issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.© 2021 Kroll, LLC. All rights reserved. Duff & Phelps is a trade name for Kroll, LLC and its affiliates.
Global Market VolatilityData as of September 22, 2021
Sources: Capital IQ, FRED® Economic Data, Morningstar Direct
U.S. Corporate Credit Spreads are based on the difference in effective yields between the ICE BofAU.S. High Yield Index and the ICE BofA US Corporate Index. Euro-Denominated Corporate CreditSpreads based on the difference in effective yields between the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-EuropeanHigh Yield Index (EUR) and the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate Bond Index. Long-term averages based on 1995 to present for VIX daily series, 1999 to present for VSTOXX dailyseries, 1996 to present for U.S. credit spread daily series, and 1998 to present for EUR-denominatedcredit spread monthly series.
VIX Index (U.S.) VSTOXX® (Europe)
MAX during2008 Global
Financial Crisis80.9 87.5
MAX during COVID-19 crisis 82.7 85.6
Current level 20.9 22.8
Long-term Average 20.0 23.7
Global Credit SpreadsData as of September 22, 2021
U.S. Corporate Credit Spreads
Euro-Denominated Corporate Credit Spreads
14.9% 18.8%MAX during2008 Global
Financial Crisis
6.7% 7.7%MAX during COVID-19 crisis
2.0% 2.7%Current Level
3.8% 5.2%Long-term Average
Total Assets Held by Major Central Banks Over TimeData as of September 20, 2021
Sources: Capital IQ, FRED® Economic Data, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank
December 2020
September 2020
6.7% 8.1%
7.8% 8.7%
June 2020 11.1% 8.0%
Latest Available* 5.2% 7.6%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat
* Data through August 2021 for the United States and July 2021 for the Eurozone.
U.S. vs. Eurozone Unemployment RateData as of September 20, 2021
Sources: OECD, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Consensus Economics, Economic Intelligence Unit, Fitch Ratings, IHS Markit, Moody's Analytics, Oxford Economics, S&P Global Ratings
Before COVID-19 median estimates are based on data released in December 2019 and early January of 2020. After COVID-19 median estimates are based on data available as of the date noted above.
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is calculated as the annualized rate of return of median real GDP growth rate estimates from the end of 2019 through the end of 2021:[(1 + 2020 Real GDP Growth Rate) * ( 1 + 2021 Real GDP Growth Rate ) ] ^ (1/2) – 1. Cumulative growth is calculated as the total (cumulative) growth rates of median real GDP estimates from the end of 2019 through the end of2021: (1 + 2020 Real GDP Growth Rate ) * ( 1 + 2021 Real GDP Growth Rate ) – 1. These metrics show the annualized and cumulative real GDP growth rates that were expected at the end of 2019 (Before COVID- 19) for the2020–2021 period vs. what the expectations are currently (After COVID-19).
Global 10-Year Government Bond YieldsData as of September 22, 2021
Sources: Bloomberg (Brazil, India), European Central Bank (Eurozone aggregate yield),Capital IQ (other countries)
0.28%-0.26%0.70%UK SwedenSwitzerland
Euro
pe –
Oth
er
-0.46%
0.66%0.31%-0.07%
-0.16%NetherlandsGermanyEurozone
ItalySpainFrance
-0.31%
Euro
zone
A
mer
icas
Asi
a
0.05%6.14%2.90%China JapanIndia
10.65%1.29%1.32%U.S. BrazilCanada
Stock Market Performance Since the Wuhan Lockdown*Data as of September 22, 2021
Source: Capital IQ
*The first lockdown due to COVID-19 began on January 23, 2020, in Wuhan, China.
-5.7%
FTSE 100
25.8%
MSCI All Country World Index
10.3%
STOXX®
Europe 600
CAC 40
11.1%15.8%
DAX 30 IBEX 35
-7.5%
TOPIX
18.1%
32.2%
S&P 500
CSI 300
20.4%
U.S. Cost of Capital InputsData as of September 20, 2021
Real GDP Growth – Q1 and Q2 2021Data as of September 22, 2021
2.6
1.0
2021
-3.4
5.7
2020
After COVID-19
Befo
reCO
VID
-19
Afte
r CO
VID
-19
20224.4
WORLD
2021
-3.4
6.0
2020
U.S.
2021
-6.5
4.9
2020
EUROZONE
2021
2.3
8.4
2020
CHINA
Compound Annual Growth Rates (%)
2020 to 2021
Cumulative Growth (%) 2020-2021
5.3
2.1
1.9
1.2
After COVID-19
Compound Annual Growth Rates (%)
2020 to 2021
Cumulative Growth (%) 2020-2021
3.8
2.4
1.1
-1.0
After COVID-19
Compound Annual Growth Rates (%)
2020 to 2021
Cumulative Growth (%) 2020-2021
2.3
-1.9
5.7
5.3
After COVID-19
Compound Annual Growth Rates (%)
2020 to 2021
Cumulative Growth (%) 2020-2021
11.8
10.9
20224.3
20225.72022
4.4
Befo
reCO
VID
-19
Afte
r CO
VID
-19
Befo
reCO
VID
-19
Afte
r CO
VID
-19
Befo
reCO
VID
-19
Afte
r CO
VID
-19
For more information, visit: www.duffandphelps.com/costofcapital
4.4% 7.1%March 2020
COVID-19
2008 Global Financial Crisis
After COVID-19% Change
Feb 2020 – Sep 2021
103%
Bank of England
89%Bank of Japan 23%
European Central Bank
106%
U.S. Federal Reserve
Real GDP Growth (%) Estimates (Median) Data as of September 20, 2021
Sources: FRED® Economic Data (Eurozone, Japan, U.S.), National Bureau of Statistics of China, UK's Office for National Statistics
Quarter-on-quarter growth based on the growth rate from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021 and Q1 2021 to Q2 2021. This rate is annualized by computing the compounded growth rate for four quarters as follows: (1 + Real GDPQ/Q Growth)^4. The annualized rate shows what the quarterly change would be if it lasted a full year.
Q1: 6.3%Q2: 6.6%
Q1: -1.1%Q2: 9.2%
Q1: -6.2%Q2: 20.7%
Q1: 1.6%Q2: 5.3%
Q1: -4.2%Q2: 1.9%
U.S. Eurozone UK China Japan
AN
NU
ALI
ZED
Q
UA
RTER
-ON
-Q
UA
RTER
G
ROW
TH (%
)
QU
ART
ER-O
N-
QU
ART
ER
GRO
WTH
(%)
Q1: 1.5%Q2: 1.6%
Q1: -0.3%Q2: 2.2%
Q1: -1.6%Q2: 4.8%
Q1: 0.4%Q2: 1.3%
Q1: -1.1%Q2: 0.5%
Duff & Phelps, A Kroll Business continues to monitor risk-freerates and other cost of capital inputs closely. If and when (i) long-term spot yields increase to a level that approaches the Duff &Phelps-recommended U.S. normalized risk-free rate (e.g.,differences are lower than 50 b.p.), and (ii) there is evidence thatthis increase in spot yields is not transitory, we will then considerrecommending a return to using spot 20-year U.S. Treasury Yieldsas the basis for the risk-free rate to be used in conjunction withour recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium.
Sources: Michigan University’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, OECD’s Business Confidence Index,European Commission business and consumer surveys [The same methodology that the EuropeanCommission uses to standardize its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was applied to the EurozoneConsumer Confidence and Business Climate Indicator series.]
*Data through September 2021 for U.S. and Eurozone Consumer Sentiment.. Data through August31, 2021, for U.S. and Eurozone Business Confidence.
BusinessConfidence
Consumer Sentiment
86.5(1952–2021)
(1950–2021)
100.0
100.0(1985–2021)
(1985–2021)
100.0
Pre-COVID-19 (February 2020)
101.0
99.0
107.1
99.5
Post-COVID-19 (Latest Available*)
71.0
101.5
111.9
117.6
March 2021 6.0% 8.1%June 2021 5.9% 7.8%
Risk has subsided since the outbreak of COVID-19, but economic recovery is still progressing at different speeds among regions. The Delta variant is leading to downward revisions in real GDP growth for some geographies.– Carla Nunes, CFA, Managing Director, Duff & Phelps, A Kroll Business
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U.S. and Eurozone Consumer Sentiment vs. Business ConfidenceData as of September 20, 2021
5.5%
2.5% Normalized Risk-Free Rate
Long-Term Avg.