copyright julian birkinshaw 2015 the future of management julian birkinshaw professor of strategy...
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Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The Future of Management
Julian BirkinshawProfessor of Strategy & Entrepreneurship
Director of the Deloitte Institute London Business School
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Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
Credit Default SwapsProcessor speed (MIPS)Processing power/$Number of internet hostsData transmission speedsCost of bandwidth
(bits/second/$) Number of genes sequencedAstronomical data collected
The Accelerating Change hypothesis
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Ray Kurzweil
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Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The creative destruction hypothesis
“INDUSTRIAL AGE”
“INFORMATION AGE”
1980 2000196019401920
?
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The Information Age: Capital and labour no longer scarce resources
Efficiency driving out effectivene
ss
Productivity driving
out motivation
CAPITAL
LABOUR
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
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What lies beyond?
“INDUSTRIAL AGE”
“INFORMATION AGE”
“POST INFORMATION
AGE”
1980 2000 2020196019401920
?
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Brief table discussion
What would be the warning signs that the “information age” was coming to an end?
a) What does a business world with too much information look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?
b) And what does a business world with too much emphasis on knowledge look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?
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Problems with Big Data Analytics
Overly precis
e
Lacking in context
An answer in search of a question
42
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Transitioning beyond the information age
Too much information
creates deficit of attention
Overemphasis on logic leads
to sterile decision making
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
DECISIVE ACTION
EMOTIONAL CONVICTION
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Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015
The changing source of advantage
INDUSTRIAL AGE
Labour Capital
INFORMATION AGE
InformationKnowledge
“AGILE AGE”
ActionConviction
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How should your organisation respond to these changes?
• Fight complexity with complexity
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Benefits of creating a complex organisation structure
Formal rules and procedures
create efficiency
People are given roles according
to expertise
Favouritism is eliminated
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Costs of creating a complex organisation structure
Risk averse
Slow moving
Disempowering
Internally focused
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How should your organisation respond to these changes?
• Fight complexity with complexity
• Fight complexity with simplicity
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Simpler structures can be more powerful
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What is the ‘management model’ of the future?
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So, what do you do for a living?
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Three ways of describing yourself in the workplace
Your
formal
position
What
you
know
What you
do
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Three different organising models
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
By Rules
Hierarchy
Extrinsic Rewards
Coordination achieved…
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Around Opportunity
Experimentation
Achievement
Coordination achieved…
BureaucracyPosition is privileged
AdhocracyAction is privileged
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Mutual Adjustment
Logical Argument
Personal Mastery
Coordination achieved…
MeritocracyKnowledge is
privileged
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Opportunity-focused coordination
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Experimental decision-making
Eight monthsNine partners<$1m budget
“We are making decisions on the fly, very
aggressively. But they are informed decisions. The purpose is to get to the
next stage as effectively as possible; and once there, the next target
becomes visible”
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INDUSTRIAL AGE
Emphasis on productivity
and efficiency
BUREAUCRACY
INFORMATION AGE
Emphasis on rational
analysis and expertise
MERITOCRACY
‘AGILE’ AGE
Emphasis on agility, intuition, and decisiveness
ADHOCRACY
Shifting emphasis over time
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Brief table discussion
Which model(s) are you using with today? And which would you like to be using?
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
By Rules
Hierarchy
Extrinsic Rewards
Coordination achieved…
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Around Opportunity
Experimentation
Achievement
Coordination achieved…
BureaucracyPosition is privileged
AdhocracyAction is privileged
People motivated by…
Decisions made through…
Mutual Adjustment
Logical Argument
Personal Mastery
Coordination achieved…
MeritocracyKnowledge is
privileged
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Adhocracy at a personal level
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Men’s world high-jump record
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
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John Thomas vs. Valeriy Brumel
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
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Dick Fosbury: Mexico Olympics Gold
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
Olympics
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Three waves of innovation in the high jumping industry
2.5
5m
2.4
5m
2.3
5m
2.2
5m
2.1
5m
2.0
5m
1.9
5m
1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000
The Fosbury Flop
The Straddle Jump
The Western Roll
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in praise of “unreasonable” people
The “Hyperloop”
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INDUSTRIAL AGE
BUREAUCRACY
Leadership is about
monitoring and controlling
INFORMATION AGE
MERITOCRACY
Leadership is about
expertise and information
flow
“AGILE” AGE
ADHOCRACY
Leadership is about enabling
experimentation, making an emotional connection