copyright © 2013 pearson education, inc. publishing as addison-wesley the cutting edge of...

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley

The Cutting Edge of Technology

Lecture 9

8.1 The Pace Of Technological Change

8.2 The Technology Production Function

8.3 Differential Technological Progress


本章重难点

• 掌握技术进步生产函数的含义


9-3

科技改变生活

• I believe that the motion picture is destined to revolutionize our educational system and that in a few years it will supplant largely, if not entirely, the use of textbooks. （我相信，电影必定对我们的教育体系带来革命性的影响，并且在未来几年内，即使不是全部，也将大大地取代教科书）

• ——Thomas Edison, 1922


9-4

Cutting Edge of Technology

• “Cutting edge of technology” refers to new techniques that are just moving out of development and into production.

• Cutting-edge technologies hold great promise for higher productivity, although they are not guaranteed to work （尽管不能确保有效，前沿技术带来提高生产力的希望）

• quantum computing （量子计算） , gene therapy （基因治疗） , and supercapacitors （超级电容器） .


9-5

Cutting Edge of Technology

• Cutting edge of technology is always changing. One characteristic of cutting edge technologies is that they do not remain that way for long （不会长久保持前沿位置）

• The era of rapid technological progress dates back only 250 years in the most advanced countries. Before this period, technological advance was slow and sporadic. （ 250 年前的技术进步很缓慢且零星）


9-6

8.1 The Pace of Technological Change

• Technological Progress before the 18th Century• The Industrial Revolution• Technological Progress since the Industrial

Revolution


9-7

Technological Progress before the 18th Century

• 中国古代四大发明：• 1 、造纸。蔡伦，太监， 15 岁入宫（公元 75

年）。公元 88 年，因参与窦太后政争（帮着窦太后诬陷他人）而位比九卿，秩俸 2000石。 102 年任尚方令。公元 105年，将所造优质纸张事奏报朝廷。 125 年，安帝亲政，蔡伦获罪自杀。

• 2 、指南针。最早的指南针出现在战国时期。


Technological Progress before the 18th Century• 中国古代四大发明：• 3 、活字印刷。毕昇（约 970 年— 1051 年），中

国古代发明家，活字版印刷术发明者，生平不详。比德国 Johannes Gutenberg （ 1453 ，古腾堡）早400 年。沈括《梦溪笔谈 · 活版》：“庆历 (1041—1048) 中有布衣毕昇，又为毕昇活板。其法用胶泥刻字，薄如钱唇，每字为一印，火烧令坚。”

• 4 、火药。唐朝（ 9 世纪末）有了军用火药。火药最初出现据称在战国时期 - 汉朝。


Some Milestones of Technological Progress

• Food production (8500 b.c.)• Wheel (3400 b.c.)• Writing( around 3000 b.c.)• Padded horse collar （马鞍）— Invented in China around 250

b.c. and independently in Europe in the ninth century• Mechanical clock (around 1275)• Steam engine (1768)• Textile manufacture (second half of the 18th century)• Network electricity (last quarter of 19th cen-tury)• Mass production of automobiles (1908)—Henry Ford• Transistor (1947) 晶体管• ARPANET (1969) 阿帕网，互联网前身。最初连了 4 台主机。


Technological Progress before the 18th Century

• 土地和劳动两种投入


9-11

Growth Accounting for Europe, A.D. 500–1700


The Industrial Revolution

• The most significant turning point in the history of technological progress was the Industrial Revolution, which is generally dated between 1760 and 1830 in Britain

• Textiles——the time required for a worker to spin one pound of cotton into thread fell from 500 hours to only 3. British production of cotton textiles rose by a factor of 125 between 1770 and 1841, and prices plummeted. As a consequence, the use of underwear became common for the first time （内衣开始流行）



• Energy —The steam engine. Between 1750 and 1850, British production of coal rose 10-fold. Steam engines also revolutionized transportation, beginning with Robert Fulton’s steamboat in 1807 and spreading later to railroads (the first steam railway opened in 1825)

• Metallurgy—coal as a source of fuel in iron smelting dramatically drove down the cost of iron production。


9-14

British Iron Production, 1600–1870

Source: Riden (1977).


9-15

British Output and Productivity Growth, 1760–1913

Source: Crafts (1996).



• two observations—that growth during the Industrial Revolution was not particularly fast and that growth did not slow down when the Industrial Revolution ended

• technologies introduced during the Industrial Revolution were indeed revolutionary, but their immediate impact on economic growth was small

• More significantly, the Industrial Revolution was a beginning .



• Economic historians identify a “Second Industrial Revolution,” dated roughly 1860–1900, with innovations in industries such as chemicals, electricity, and steel.


Technological Progress since the Industrial Revolution• high growth of total factor productivity lasting from

1890 to 1971. During this remarkable period ,daily life in the most developed countries was transformed more dramatically than ever before.

• dramatic reduction in the growth of productivity starting in the early 1970s.

• starting in the mid-1990s, there was another change in the trend.


9-19

U.S. Output and Productivity Growth, 1870–2007

Sources: Gordon (1999, 2010).


9-20

8.2 The Technology Production Function

• genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration. （天才等于 1% 的灵感加 99%的汗水）— Edison

• Over the period 1950–2007, the number of researchers engaged in R&D in the G-5 countries increased from 251,000 to 3.5 million—a factor of 14.

• The input to technological progress has grown substantially over time, whereas the growth rate of technology has not .


9-21

8.2 The Technology Production Function• 上一讲中技术创新（技术生产函数）

• 两个假设


9-22

The Relationship between Technology Level and the Speed of Technological Progress

• “If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.” ——Newton

• The cumulative nature of technological progress has both positive and negative effects on the ease of doing R&D. fishing out effect

• dominant effect is the negative one of having already made the easy discoveries


9-23

Decreasing Returns to Scale in Technology Production• the growth rate of technology is simply proportional

to the number of people engaged in R&D• For the technology production function, however, this

assumption of constant returns to scale is not appropriate. Instead, this function is characterized by decreasing returns to scale. These decreasing returns to scale arise from the qualities of knowledge itself that we discussed.

• duplication of effort 重复劳动


9-24

An Improved Version of The Technology Production Function

• 原技术生产函数

• 钓鱼效应

• 规模报酬递减


9-25

Implications for the Future of Technological Progress

• Summarize ： First, as the level of technology rises, finding new discoveries becomes ever harder. Second, as the effort devoted to R&D increases, the effectiveness of each new researcher falls.

• Both of these modifications imply that ever-increasing input into R&D will be required to maintain the current speed of technological progress.


9-26

Implications for the Future of Technological Progress• maintaining the same rate of technological progress

over the next 57 years will require a similar 14-fold increase in the number of researchers, from 3.5 million in 2007 to 49 million in 2064. Extending the analysis further, the effort will require 686 million researchers in 2121.

• The overall labor force could grow• The fraction of the labor force engaged in research

could grow• New members could be added to the set of countries

doing cutting-edge research


9-27

Table 9.2 U.S. Patents and Patents per Million Residents, 2010


9-28

Predicting Technological Progress

• Too Optimistic• 50 years hence . . . we shall escape the absurdity of

growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium.

• —Winston Churchill, British statesman, 1932


9-29

Predicting Technological Progress

• Too Pessimistic• There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear]

energy will ever be obtainable.• —Albert Einstein, physicist, 1932• By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the

Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.

• —Paul Krugman, economist, 2000


9-30

Moore’s Law as Seen in Intel Microprocessors

Source: Intel Corporation.


9-31


• The pace of technological progress is radically different in various sectors of the economy

• These differential changes in productive technology are reflected in changes in the relative prices of goods. Goods where there has been a lot of productivity growth have become cheap relative to goods where technological advance has been slow.


9-32


• Technological progress is more important when it occurs in a larger sector.

• the average rate of technological progress for the economy as a whole will be a weighted average of the rates of progress in the different sectors of the economy

• What happens to the fraction of the economy made up by a given sector when that sector experiences technological progress?


9-33

Differential Technological Progress:Two Theoretical Examples• Example 1: Bread and Cheese.面包和奶酪互补品。假设面包产业生产率每年提高 2%，而奶酪生产率不变。面包行业的生产资源将转移到奶酪行业。长期下去，面包产业利用的资源非常少，整个经济的增长为零。

• Example 2: Butter and Margarine.天然奶油和人造奶油完全替代。假设后者生产率每年提高 2%，而前者不变。起初，假设天然奶油更便宜，因而经济技术每增长。随后，人造奶油技术进步，价格下降，只生产人造奶油，整个经济的技术增长率等于人造奶油技术增长率。


9-34

Conclusions from the Examples

• The key difference between these two examples is in what happens to the share of spending devoted to the sector with rapid technological progress.

• If the fraction of income spent on the sectors with rapid technological growth rises over time, the overall growth rate of technology will also rise. If the share spent on these sectors falls, the overall rate of growth of technology will fall.


9-35

Technological Progress in the Real World: Goods versus Services• Production methods for goods (i.e., manufacturing)

have been one of the most technologically dynamic areas in the economy. By contrast, the production processes for many of the services we consume have changed little over the last century.

• Total amount of spending in these two areas: In the United States,the fraction of total onsumption devoted to services rose from 40% in 1950 to 67% in 2010.


9-36

Technological Progress in the Real World: Information Technology

• People are getting more and better computers, cell phones, and so on, but the prices of these goods are falling, so it is not clear whether the total amount of spending on computers will rise, fall, or stay constant.


9-37

Price of Computers, 1982–2010

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Income and Product Accounts, Table 1.5.4. Includes both computers and peripherals.


9-38

Investment in Computers as a Percentage of GDP, 1982–2009

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Income and Product Accounts, Table 5.5.5. Includes both computers and peripherals.

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