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  • COP25 Poster F.Meza V2 27112019 FM - UNFCCC. Chile... · 2020. 3. 17. · ^ dKZ/ > Wd d/KEW> E^ & v ] }: XD Ì UZ v ' µ U^ µ v µ } U v W ] UD l& o À Ç U } o ] v h u v U v Z _h
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Risk occurs when there is a combination of climatic hazard, over an exposed natural or human system that is also vulnerable (i.e. shows sensitivity). In order to assess the climate change risk for the different natural and human systems, we followed a multi model approach (i.e. several GCM runs) . The risk is assessed comparing current climate (1980-2010) and future climate conditions (2035- 2065 under RCP 8.5). CLIMATE RISK ATLAS OF CHILE: A TOOL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SECTORIAL ADAPTATION PLANS CLIMATE RISK ATLAS OF CHILE: A TOOL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SECTORIAL ADAPTATION PLANS Francisco J. Meza, René Garreaud, Susana Bustos, Andrés Pica, Mark Falvey, Carolina Urmeneta, Anahí Urquiza, Patricio Winckler, Ximena Vargas, Alejandro Miranda, Patricio Pliscoff, Alvaro Lorca, Camila Cabrera, Diego Rivera, Doris Soto, Maricel Gibbs, Cristian Henriquez, Jorge Gironás. Climate change risks maps for communicating information about climate impacts were develop for continental Chile, as well as Juan Fernandez and Easter islands. These maps incorporate current and future climate projections, specifying hazards, exposure and sensibility for selected systems (i.e. Human Settlement/ heat wave, Hydrology/drought) at municipal level. For each unit, and for each valid climate-hazard/system, risk will be obtained as the product of climate threat, exposure and sensitivity. The municipal risk can be subsequently aggregated at provincial and regional levels. The maps will be displayed in a web-based platform that allows dynamic visualization and data downloading, thus becoming an important tool for the design of public policies and the implementation of adaptation measures. A GIS spatial database is under development, containing the characterizations of the current and future climate scenarios and the projections for the different climate related threats for each systems of interest. Exmpls of these are: floods (heavy rains), droughts, heat waves, frosts and changes in the isotherm. All the results will be uploaded to a flexible public platform that will be developed and then transfer to the Ministry of Environment. It is expected to be a dynamic tool, identifying gaps and integrating new information in order to constantly improve results and decision making. Figure 1. Changes in yield potential for Chardonnay in central Chile INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY CONTRIBUTORS RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Figure 3. Example of web-based platform with dynamic visualization for main ricks in Chile Implementation Figure 2. Surface of Chardonnay by municipality in central Chile

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Page 1: COP25 Poster F.Meza V2 27112019 FM - UNFCCC. Chile... · 2020. 3. 17. · ^ dKZ/ > Wd d/KEW> E^ & v ] }: XD Ì UZ v ' µ U^ µ v µ } U v W ] UD l& o À Ç U } o ] v h u v U v Z _h

Risk occurs when there is a combination of climatichazard, over an exposed natural or human system that isalso vulnerable (i.e. shows sensitivity). In order to assessthe climate change risk for the different natural andhuman systems, we followed a multi model approach (i.e.several GCM runs) . The risk is assessed comparing currentclimate (1980-2010) and future climate conditions (2035-2065 under RCP 8.5).

CLIMATE RISK ATLAS OF CHILE: ATOOL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OFSECTORIAL ADAPTATION PLANS

CLIMATE RISK ATLAS OF CHILE: ATOOL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OFSECTORIAL ADAPTATION PLANS

Francisco J. Meza, René Garreaud, Susana Bustos, Andrés Pica, Mark Falvey, Carolina Urmeneta, Anahí Urquiza,Patricio Winckler, Ximena Vargas, Alejandro Miranda, Patricio Pliscoff, Alvaro Lorca, Camila Cabrera, Diego Rivera,Doris Soto, Maricel Gibbs, Cristian Henriquez, Jorge Gironás.

Climate change risks maps for communicatinginformation about climate impacts were develop forcontinental Chile, as well as Juan Fernandez and Easterislands. These maps incorporate current and futureclimate projections, specifying hazards, exposure andsensibility for selected systems (i.e. Human Settlement/heat wave, Hydrology/drought) at municipal level.

For each unit, and for each valid climate-hazard/system,risk will be obtained as the product of climate threat,exposure and sensitivity. The municipal risk can besubsequently aggregated at provincial and regionallevels.

The maps will be displayed in a web-based platform thatallows dynamic visualization and data downloading, thusbecoming an important tool for the design of publicpolicies and the implementation of adaptationmeasures.

A GIS spatial database is under development, containingthe characterizations of the current and future climatescenarios and the projections for the different climaterelated threats for each systems of interest. Exmpls ofthese are: floods (heavy rains), droughts, heat waves,frosts and changes in the isotherm. All the results will beuploaded to a flexible public platform that will bedeveloped and then transfer to the Ministry ofEnvironment. It is expected to be a dynamic tool,identifying gaps and integrating new information inorder to constantly improve results and decisionmaking.

Figure 1. Changes in yield potential for Chardonnay in central Chile

INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY

CONTRIBUTORS

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Figure 3. Example of web-based platform with dynamic visualization for main ricks in Chile

Implementation

Figure 2. Surface of Chardonnay by municipality in central Chile

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