coordinating adaptation in the mekong...
TRANSCRIPT
Coordinating adaptation in the Mekong Region
Dr Alex Smajgl 18 March 2013
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
To equip policy makers, industries
and communities with practical and
effective adaptation options to
climate change and variability and,
in doing so, create in the national
interest $3 billion per annum in net
benefits by 2030.
Climate Adaptation Flagship Goal
www.csiro.au/ca
Research strategy delivers to sectoral clients
~150 full time equivalents across ~300 staff members
Operating since 2008, now ~$40m/y budget, ~35% external
(Water issues in Water for Healthy Country Flagship)
Mark Howden Craig James Xiaoming Wang
Bryson Bates
www.csiro.au/ca
Adaptation science: 3 perspectives, all needed
Adaptation
options and
technologies Cultivars, materials,
farming systems, urban
planning, etc
Adaptive
behaviours
and institutions Behaviours, incentives,
barriers, adaptive capacity,
vulnerabilities, etc
Adaptation information
and decision-making Evaluation, adaptation
pathways, future scenarios,
risk management modes, etc
www.csiro.au/ca
Conduct research on complex systems interactions
• to help avoid unintended consequences of development,
• minimise trade-off losses and maximise synergies in the domains of
• climate change adaptation,
• water resources,
• sustainable urban development and
• food security.
AusAID CSIRO Research for Development Alliance – Overarching purpose
AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 5
Addressing significant challenges [Relevance]
Research that is cross-sectoral, multi-scale, transboundary, complex and involves trade-off decisions.
CSIRO comparative advantage [Efficiency]
Research for which CSIRO is best placed to harness the right skills, has good visibility (increasingly underpinned by local presence), where the partnership modality will be most effective, that lends itself to a Team Australia approach and allows for participatory design.
The Alliance: Some key principles
AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 6
1. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
2. Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Urban Development
3. Climate projections: high resolution downscaling for Vietnam
4. Climate Adaptation Strategies for Rural Livelihoods in Indonesia
5. Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources Assessment
6. Food security through food system innovation
Current portfolio of projects
AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 7
Exploring Mekong Region Futures
• Yunnan (ICRAF)
Rubber-Reforestation-Biodiversity
• Lao PDR (IWMI/WREA)
Water use in Nam Ngum catchment
& Vientiane plain
• Thailand (SEI/RBO)
Irrigation for north-eastern Provinces
& climate change
• Cambodia (Aalto/TSA/SNEC)
Impacts of mainstream dams on
Tonle Sap
• Vietnam (Can Tho Uni/Prov)
Mekong Delta adaptation to sea-level
rise
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 8
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 9
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 10
Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 11
Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 12
Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 13
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 14
Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
Thailand – Belief 4: IF inter-basin water diversions existed THEN income would increase
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 15
Thailand – Belief 2: IF we invest in large-scale irrigation THEN poverty will decrease
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 16
Substantial impact of irrigation on income
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 17
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Kalasin
Mahasarakam
Khon Kaen
Average household income
Marginal impact of irrigation on poverty
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 18
-0.70%
-0.60%
-0.50%
-0.40%
-0.30%
-0.20%
-0.10%
0.00%
Kalasin
Khon Kaen
Mahasarakham
Vietnam – Belief 2: IF soft policies are implemented THEN livelihoods improve
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 19
Vietnam – Belief 3: IF hard policies are implemented THEN rice production increase and livelihoods will improve
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 20
Modern rice crops improve livelihoods
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 21
Rice production response and technological measures to adapt to
salinity intrusion in the coastal Mekong delta
Dang Kieu Nhan1, Vu Anh Phap2, Tran Huu Phuc2 & Nguyen Hieu Trung3 1 Agricultural Systems Department, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, Can Tho University (CTU) 2 Crop Resources Management Department, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, CTU 3 College of Environment and Natural Resources Management, CTU
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Salinity (‰)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Yie
lds (
ton
s h
a-1
) Tolerant
Less tolerant
Sensitive
Tolerant: Y = 5.1 - 0.2X - 0.02X2
Less tolerant: Y = 5.3 - 0.9X + 0.05X2
Sensitive: Y = 5.0 - 1.4X + 0.1X 2
Shrimp can increase income by 50%
Farming
systems
Total variable
costs
Gross return Gross
margin
Benefit
-cost
ratio Rice Shrimp Rice Shrimp
Two rice
crops
(n = 46)
25.3
1.1
46.8
2.0
21.6
1.9
0.9
0.1
Rice –
shrimp
(n = 48)
6.0
0.6
24.1
7.9
16.3
2.1
50.4
9.5
36.8
5.1
1.2
0.3
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 22
In million Vietnamese Dong
SLR 30 cm
Upstream hydropower
Irrigation extension
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 23
THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
To Quang Toan1, Nguyen Hieu Trung2, Dang Kieu Nhan3 1Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University.
Fresh
< 2 g/l
< 2-4 g/l
< 4-10 g/l
< 10-20 g/l
>20 g/l
329 26 -82 -79 -8 -186 in 1,000 ha
Cailon/Caibe + Hamluong/Cochien
Impact of droughts
SLR 30 cm
Upstream hydropower
Irrigation extension
Climate change (droughts)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 24
THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
To Quang Toan1, Nguyen Hieu Trung2, Dang Kieu Nhan3 1Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University.
Fresh < 2 g/l
< 2-4 g/l
< 4-10 g/l
< 10-20 g/l
>20 g/l
-306 -148 180 163 87 23 in 1,000 ha
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 25
Thank you CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Alex Smajgl Senior Research Scientist
t +61 419 793439 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/ MekongFutures.html
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
27 January 2010 Base – Scen
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 27
07 November 2010 Base – Scen
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 28
27 December 2010 Base – Scen
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 29
Pending Decisions – Nexus – transboundary impacts
• Yunnan (ICRAF)
Rubber-Reforestation-Biodiversity
• Lao PDR (IWMI/WREA)
Water use in Nam Ngum catchment
& Vientiane plain
• Thailand (SEI/RBO)
Irrigation for north-eastern Provinces
& climate change
• Cambodia (Aalto/TSA/SNEC)
Impacts of mainstream dams on
Tonle Sap
• Vietnam (Can Tho Uni/Prov)
Mekong Delta adaptation to sea-level
rise
Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 30
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
Demanded:
Impact assessment considering
(a) cross sectoral trade-offs in
(b) trans-boundary context
Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 31
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
Pending Decisions – Nexus – transboundary impacts
Demanded:
Impact assessment considering
(a) cross sectoral trade-offs in
(b) trans-boundary context
BUT equally important is a
process that
(a) bridges between science and
decision making
(b) facilitates learning on side of
decision making
Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 32
http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures
Pending Decisions – Nexus – transboundary impacts
Lao – Belief 1: IF Large scale irrigation schemes THEN Poverty decreases
Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 33
High income effects of irrigation (20-30% ) except Louangphrabang and Xiangkhoang
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 34
Irrigation has only marginal effects on poverty
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 35
-2.00
-1.80
-1.60
-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Xaisomboun
Vientiane[prefecture]Louangphrabang
Bolikhamxai
Vientiane
Xiangkhoang
%
Low income effects of industry employment (3-6%) except Xaysomboun (14%)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 36
Industry employment effective to alleviate poverty
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 37
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Vientiane[prefecture]Xiangkhoang
Bolikhamxai
Vientiane
Louangphrabang
Xaisomboun
Thailand – Belief 2: IF More Sugarcane planted THEN Poverty decreases
Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 38
Evidence from the HH survey: Sugar cane has a greater net profit per ha than rice but NOT when debts included (p<0.05)
Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 39
Note: net profit per ha does NOT correlate with intention to
adapt (p>0.05 and R2 <0.06.
Yunnan Belief 1: IF Government provides payments/compensations THEN Rubber expansion can be reversed
Exploring Yunnan Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 40
Evidence from the model
Exploring Yunnan Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 41
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
Area under Rubber
%
Government compensation (Green rubber)
Regulation (Monoculture rubber)
Evidence from the model
Exploring Yunnan Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 42
-34%
-29%
-24%
-19%
-14%
-9%
-4%
1%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
Average household income Government payments
Regulation
Tractability [Effectiveness]
Research that has greater prospects of success because it is less sensitive to political events or circumstances, builds on good capacity of in-country partners and is supported by mature and effective trans-disciplinary partnerships.
Alignment with Flagship Goals
Research that generates benefits and impacts that can demonstrably be linked to achievement of Flagship goals. This includes capacity building and science impacts.
The Alliance: Key principles - 2
AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 43
Cailon/Caibe
SLR 30 cm
Upstream hydropower
Irrigation extension
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 44
THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
To Quang Toan1, Nguyen Hieu Trung2, Dang Kieu Nhan3 1Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University.
in 1,000 ha
Fresh
< 2 g/l
< 2-4 g/l
< 4-10 g/l
< 10-20 g/l
>20 g/l
155 -74 6 36 63 -186