Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in the Congo Basin

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This presentation by Martin Tadoum,the Deputy Executive Secretary of COMIFAC describes the current situation of REDD in the Congo Basin, the methodological issues encountered, what the congobiom model has to do with that and what the next steps are.

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  • 1. Martin TADOUM, Deputy Executive Secretary /COMIFAC 1 16TH NOVEMBER 2013GLOBAL LANDSCAPES FORUM/WARSAW

2. Background Congo Basin: 2nd largest tropical rainforest, low deforestation rate Strong interest for REDD+ expressed by COMIFAC countries Different stages of the development of REDD in the region2 Commission des Forts dAfrique Centrale2 3. Partial NFMSFullyoperational NFMSCurrent situation on REDDCapacity DevelopmentDemocratic Republic of Congo GabonRepublic of CongoEquatorial Guinea Chad Burundi Rwanda Sao Tome & PrincipeCentral African Republic Cameroon Phase 1 ReadinessPhase 2 Demonstration activitiesPhase 3 Positive incentives for verified performance 4. REDD Methodological issues One of the current challenges of REDD+ focus on the abilities of countries to define the reference leval and establish a consensual and sustainable MRV system The adoption of a specific methodology to estimate the Reference level involves important technical ramificationsLaunch a study on modeling impact of development trajectories by 20304Commission des Forts dAfrique Centrale 5. Annual deforestation/forest degradation rates 1990-2000 and 2000-2005Interest of the study0.170.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 00.090.09 0.05Net annual Deforestation1990-2000 2000-2005Net annual degradationSource: Authors, derived from de Wasseige et al. , 2012National forest coverForest transition curveCongo Basin HFLD profile Congo Basin countries may be entering the second stage, with accelerated forest losses.South Amazon BasinEurope North AmericaSouth East Asia North East Asia South AsiaWest Africa Atlantic forestOceania TimeStage 1: undisturbed/ little disturbed forestsStage 2: forest frontiers (high deforestation)Stage 3: forest mosaic with stabilized cover (low deforestation)Stage 4: increasing forest cover through afforestation and reforestation5Commission des Forts dAfrique Centrale 6. Development of Congobiom model and its application Congobiom is an economic model for the Congo Basin, derived from GLOBIOM developed by IIASA This modelling tool can strengthen the better understanding of the potentiel future trends of deforestation in the Congo Bassin by Providing a depth analysis of the major drivers of deforestation for the next decades in the countries of the Congo Basin by analyzing internal pressures (population growth, development needs, etc) but also external pressures (commodity prices for example)Commission des Forts dAfrique Centrale 7. Development of Congobiom model and its applications (cont.) providing the countries and their decision makers with scientifically sound analytical tools that can help them better understand how the development of economic sectors can affect the forest cover and how the impact of policy choices made by governments can affect forest cover and income that could be generated through REDD + Modelling could be a support planning decision toolCommission des Forts dAfrique Centrale 8. Current phase of the Project and next steps in the Congo Basin Congobiom is now extended to all 10 countries of COMIFAC and should then be refined Training of national experts from the pilot countries for REDDPAC project is ongoing The development of a national model in each pilot countries by the end of December is one of the resolution set at the regional worshop for the REDD-PAC project in October.8Commission des Forts dAfrique Centrale 9. COMMISSION DES FORETS DAFRIQUE CENTRALEUne dimension rgionale pour la conservation et la gestion durable des cosystmes forestiers Tl : (+237) 22 21 35 11 (+237) 22 21 35 12 Fax: (+237) 22 20 48 03 BP. 20818 Yaound Cameroun Email : comifac@comifac.org - comifac2005@yahoo.fr Site web : www.comifac.org