Context of Congressional Context of Congressional ElectionsElections

Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls)First Tuesday in November in even # yearsAustralian ballotMust win 2 elections

Social & Political ContextsSocial & Political Contexts

Amazing Variation– geographic size – Population– Economic base– Ethnicity– Age– Partisanship

Incumb Reelect Rates 1832-Incumb Reelect Rates 1832-19881988

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

% of Incumbs defeated % of Incumbs retained

IncumbencyIncumbency

93% of House incumbents are reelected– 1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected

77% of Senate incumbents are reelected#1 question to ask for congressional

elections, Is there an incumbent?Defining feature of Congress

Web Assignment #7Web Assignment #7

Roll Call- Campaign News– What makes a good candidate?– What makes a close election?

Races for the US House

117

65

22 19 20

62

129

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Se

ats

House of RepresentativesHouse of Representatives

61 “competitive” races in 2000– 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost– 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost– GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats– Dems with 4 of 10 open seats

17 changes of 435

Races for the US Senate

7

31

9

2

6 7

02468

10

Sen

ate

Senate in 2000Senate in 2000

12 toss up races out of 33– GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win– Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win– GOP 0 of 1 on open seats– Dems 3 of 4 on open seats

7 changes

Sources of Incumbent Sources of Incumbent advantageadvantage

Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected.

Amazing array of resources– Free mail, trips to district, staff– Free facilities for TV and radio ads– Casework

# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993Senate Staff

39 82280 424 590

1115

1749

2426

3554

40754138

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Senate Staff

House Members Paid Trips to Districts

3 512

1826

33

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6

Trips to district

Election Year Congressional Mailings

0

200

400

600

800

10001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Pieces of Mail in Millions

Is it the MoneyIs it the Money

Average incumbent gets 64.3% of voteFor every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of voteFor every $100,00 spent by party, lose

2.73% of voteincumbent House winner spends $700,00incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

Why Incumbents WinWhy Incumbents Win

Table 5.3, high name recognitionTable 5.7, Voters Contact with CandidatesTable 5.15

– Personal– Performance/experience– District service– Ideology/Policy

Challengers StrategyChallengers Strategy

Table 5.3 name recognitionTable 5.11, Campaign expenditures and

name recognitionTable 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates

– Where do voters learn about challengers

Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers– What is #1?

The Incumbent’s StrategyThe Incumbent’s Strategy

Discourage serious electoral competition– Herb Kohl

Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability

Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

Quality of House Challengers

0

20

40

60

50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70+

Incumbent's vote in last election (%)

Form

er

Offic

ehold

ers

(%)

Electoral Competition and Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994Challenger Spending in 1994

Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate

<40%, $105,00040-45%, $322,00045-49.9%, $433 ,000Open seat $580,000

Expectations GameExpectations Game

Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money

Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers

Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

Strategic Politician HypothesisStrategic Politician Hypothesis

Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats

2nd tier candidates, some money goHopeless, poorly funded candidates run

against strong incumbents

Who is a marginal incumbentWho is a marginal incumbent

Less than 60% of vote in previous electionScandal in last termRepublican in a democratic leaning districtFirst term representative

CampaignsCampaigns

½ of all money is wasted, high uncertaintyWhat issues are importantLow turnoutRandom terror and running scared

– Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

Why do incumbents win?Why do incumbents win?

Better known (90% vs 40%Better liked (more familiar)Better funded

Why do challengers win?Why do challengers win?

Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media

Are well fundedImplications???

Reforming the SystemReforming the System

Term limits– Federal level– State level

Increase competitiveness of elections– Campaign finance reform

Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

The Two CongressesThe Two Congresses

Representative/elective institution – reelection is never far from members’ minds.

Lawmaking institution– First branch of government – Unique among representative institutions

Explaining the Behavior of Explaining the Behavior of Individual Members Individual Members

Edmund Burke should representative– act like a delegate and follow the wishes of

those who have elected him or her? – Or as a Trustee who decides according to his

or her own best judgment?

Changing Representational Changing Representational RolesRoles

LawmakersDistrict serviceConstituent assistance

3 types of behavior3 types of behavior

Advertising– Nobody’s senator but yours

Credit claiming– Has to be credible– Pork barreling; casework

Position taking– Inherently costly

reelection tips for legislatorsreelection tips for legislators

keep your perspective speak the right language first impressions are important