contacts the lebanon weekly monitor flattening of advertising...

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1 Week 02 January 02 - January 08, 2012 JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012 WEEK 02 Bank Audi sal - Audi Saradar Group - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] CONTACTS RESEARCH Treasury & Capital Markets Micky Chebli (961-1) 977419 [email protected] Nadine Akkawi (961-1) 977401 [email protected] Emile Shalala (961-1) 977622 [email protected] Private Banking Toufic Aouad (961-1) 329328 toufi[email protected] Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 [email protected] Marwan Barakat (961-1) 977409 [email protected] Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 [email protected] Salma Saad Baba (961-1) 977346 [email protected] Fadi Kanso (961-1) 977470 [email protected] Nathalie Ghorayeb (961-1) 964047 [email protected] Lélia Tamer Badro (961-1) 977575 [email protected] Nivine Turyaki (961-1) 959615 [email protected] LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012 The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR Economy ___________________________________________________________________________ p.2 FLATTENING OF ADVERTISING SPENDING AT THE IMAGE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN At the mirror image of a slowing down macroeconomy, advertising spending in Lebanon is assumed to have flattened in 2011. Advertising spending is estimated at a total of US$ 1,096 million over the first 11 months of 2011, up by a mere 1.0% from the corresponding period of 2010. Also in this issue p.3 Cement deliveries up by a yearly 8.3% p.3 Construction permits down by a yearly 6.2% p.4 Payment card statistics reveal sustained consumption patterns by Lebanese residents Surveys ___________________________________________________________________________ p.5 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS IN THE LAST QUARTER OF 2011 AS PER BAYT. COM According to the latest consumer confidence index conducted by the job site Bayt.com in December 2011, consumer confidence in Lebanon witnessed a drop at the end of the final quarter of 2011 relative to the third quarter of the year. Also in this issue p.6 Lebanon 18th globally in terms of gold holding Corporate News ___________________________________________________________________________ p.7 SANAD MAKES FIRST SME INVESTMENT IN LEBANON SANAD Fund announced that it has signed a senior loan facility totaling US$ 5 million with BLC Bank S.A.L, thus concluding its first investment in Lebanon. Also in this issue p.7 Arabia 500 ranks 12 Lebanese firms amongst fastest growing companies in the Arab World p.8 MEPS & MOBIbucks in deal to offer cashless payment services in Levant p.8 Turkey’s Haremlique opens first store outside Turkey in Beirut Markets In Brief ___________________________________________________________________________ p.9 LEBANESE CAPITAL MARKETS START THE YEAR WITH SLOW ACTIVITY Lebanese capital markets were relatively calm during this week that was shortened to three working days due to holidays. The money market continued to be marked by ample local currency liquidity, which was translated into stability in the overnight rate at 2.75%. At the level of equity market, activity was weak, with the total trading value limited to US$ 1.7 million versus an average weekly of US$ 10.1 million in 2011. The BSE price index edged up by 0.5%, while the trading volume index declined by 27.3%. As to the Eurobond market, a shy local activity was observed, while foreign players were almost absent. The average spread widened by three bps to 324 bps due to a tiny rise in Lebanese yields and a decline in international benchmark yields, while Lebanon’s five-year CDS spread remained stable at 450-480 bps. Regarding the FX market, supply and demand forces were balanced in low volumes, while the Central Bank remained on the sidelines, and the LP/US$ interbank rate ranged between LP 1,505.00-LP 1,508.00.

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Page 1: CONTACTS The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR FLATTENING OF ADVERTISING …images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/accessory/201201/1326459883846.pdf · 2012-01-13 · The breakdown of advertising spending

1Week 02 January 02 - January 08, 2012

JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012

WEEK 02

Bank Audi sal - Audi Saradar Group - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected]

CONTACTS

RESEARCH

Treasury & Capital Markets

Micky Chebli(961-1) [email protected]

Nadine Akkawi(961-1) [email protected]

Emile Shalala(961-1) [email protected]

Private Banking

Toufic Aouad(961-1) [email protected]

Corporate Banking

Khalil Debs(961-1) [email protected]

Marwan Barakat(961-1) [email protected]

Jamil Naayem(961-1) [email protected]

Salma Saad Baba(961-1) [email protected]

Fadi Kanso(961-1) [email protected]

Nathalie Ghorayeb(961-1) [email protected]

Lélia Tamer Badro(961-1) [email protected]

Nivine Turyaki(961-1) [email protected]

LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012

The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR

Economy___________________________________________________________________________p.2 FLATTENING OF ADVERTISING SPENDING AT THE IMAGE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNAt the mirror image of a slowing down macroeconomy, advertising spending in Lebanon is assumed to have flattened in 2011. Advertising spending is estimated at a total of US$ 1,096 million over the first 11 months of 2011, up by a mere 1.0% from the corresponding period of 2010.

Also in this issuep.3 Cement deliveries up by a yearly 8.3% p.3 Construction permits down by a yearly 6.2% p.4 Payment card statistics reveal sustained consumption patterns by Lebanese residents

Surveys___________________________________________________________________________p.5 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS IN THE LAST QUARTER OF 2011 AS PER BAYT.COM According to the latest consumer confidence index conducted by the job site Bayt.com in December 2011, consumer confidence in Lebanon witnessed a drop at the end of the final quarter of 2011 relative to the third quarter of the year.

Also in this issuep.6 Lebanon 18th globally in terms of gold holding

Corporate News___________________________________________________________________________p.7 SANAD MAKES FIRST SME INVESTMENT IN LEBANON SANAD Fund announced that it has signed a senior loan facility totaling US$ 5 million with BLC Bank S.A.L, thus concluding its first investment in Lebanon.

Also in this issuep.7 Arabia 500 ranks 12 Lebanese firms amongst fastest growing companies in the Arab World p.8 MEPS & MOBIbucks in deal to offer cashless payment services in Levantp.8 Turkey’s Haremlique opens first store outside Turkey in Beirut

Markets In Brief___________________________________________________________________________p.9 LEBANESE CAPITAL MARKETS START THE YEAR WITH SLOW ACTIVITY Lebanese capital markets were relatively calm during this week that was shortened to three working days due to holidays. The money market continued to be marked by ample local currency liquidity, which was translated into stability in the overnight rate at 2.75%. At the level of equity market, activity was weak, with the total trading value limited to US$ 1.7 million versus an average weekly of US$ 10.1 million in 2011. The BSE price index edged up by 0.5%, while the trading volume index declined by 27.3%. As to the Eurobond market, a shy local activity was observed, while foreign players were almost absent. The average spread widened by three bps to 324 bps due to a tiny rise in Lebanese yields and a decline in international benchmark yields, while Lebanon’s five-year CDS spread remained stable at 450-480 bps. Regarding the FX market, supply and demand forces were balanced in low volumes, while the Central Bank remained on the sidelines, and the LP/US$ interbank rate ranged between LP 1,505.00-LP 1,508.00.

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2Week 02 January 02- January 08, 2012

JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012

WEEK 02

ECONOMY______________________________________________________________________________FLATTENING OF ADVERTISING SPENDING AT THE IMAGE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

At the mirror image of a slowing down macroeconomy, advertising spending in Lebanon is assumed to have flattened in 2011. Advertising spending is estimated at a total of US$ 1,096 million over the first 11 months of 2011, up by a mere 1.0% from the corresponding period of 2010. Such spending had risen at a rate of 22.9% in the previous year and at an average compounded rate of 29.1% over the 2006-2010 period. In parallel, real GDP growth is estimated to have contracted from an average of 8.0% over the previous four years to circa 2% in 2011 (7.5% in 2010).

The contracting advertising spending growth actually mirrors the sluggishness in aggregate spending patterns in the economy over the past year. An indicator for total private spending could be the aggregation of cleared checks, ATM transactions and pos values which rose by a mere 6.8% in the first 11 months of 2011, against 21.1% over last year’s corresponding period and a similar growth over the previous five years.

The breakdown of advertising spending by media type suggests that television accounts for 76.3%, followed by outdoor billboards with 11.0%, print publications with 8.7%, radio with 3.8% and cinemas with 0.2%. Such a breakdown is close to the one reported in 2010 where television accounts for the bulk of advertising spending.

The ad sector continues to witness highly competitive conditions, wide diversity on the supply side given comparatively high media freedom. Positive drivers to the outlook can be summarized by a highly skilled labor force, good domestic production quality and the local TVs satellite business targeting growing regional viewers and scattered diaspora. Downside risks include the low margin business with high fixed costs, the relatively oversized market, in addition to the fact that corporate cost rationalization during slowdown starts with cutting advertising budgets.

ADVERTISING SPENDING IN LEBANON

Sources: Ipsos MediaCT, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012

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_____________________________________________________________________________CEMENT DELIVERIES UP BY A YEARLY 8.3%

Figures released by the Central Bank of Lebanon show that cement deliveries, a coincident indicator of construction activity, increased by 8.3% over the first ten months of 2011 as compared to the same period of 2010 to reach 4,784 thousand tons. Cement deliveries represent a lagging indicator for construction permits, which dropped by 5.6% during the aforementioned period of 2011. Therefore, in spite of higher cement deliveries during the December 2010 to October 2011 period, one would note a slowdown or delay in the initiation of construction due to the ongoing impact of the regional as well as local political conditions that prevailed throughout the first nine of 2011. During the month of October 2011, cement deliveries increased by 12.9% from the same month of 2010 to reach 619 thousand tons.

CEMENT DELIVERIES (IN 000S TONS, FIRST TEN MONTHS OF THE YEAR)

Source: Central Bank of Lebanon, Bank Audi's Research Department

_____________________________________________________________________________CONSTRUCTION PERMITS DOWN BY A YEARLY 6.2%

During the first eleven months of 2011, construction activity posted a slowdown as revealed by the fifth consecutive yearly drop of total permits. Indeed, the latter is attributed to the prevailing impact of political disturbances gripping over Lebanon and the region which therefore pushed several investors to slowdown their activities. According to the latest figures released by the Order of Engineers in Beirut and Tripoli, the area of newly issued construction permits reached 14,720,362 square meters in the first eleven months of 2011, down by 6.2% relative to the same period of 2010.

The decline during the aforementioned period of 2011 is mainly attributable to the wait and see mood adopted by investors when it comes to initiating new projects. In 2010, the appetite for commencing construction projects was more evident as revealed by the 37.7% year-on-year increase during the first eleven months of 2010. In November 2011, construction permits witnessed a year-on-year decline of 13.5% relative to the same month of 2010, pursuing a downward trend observed over the previous months of the year.

During the first eleven months of 2011, most of the demand for construction permits originated mainly from Mount Lebanon which captured a share of 51.1% of total permits. This is in fact in line with the growing demand for property in Mount Lebanon by Lebanese residents, as prices in that area are more affordable than prices in the capital. It was followed by the South with 9.9%, Beirut with 7.9%, Bekaa with 7.6%, and Nabattiyeh with 6.7%.

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______________________________________________________________________________PAYMENT CARD STATISTICS REVEAL SUSTAINED CONSUMPTION PATTERNS BY LEBANESE RESIDENTS

Figures released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that the outstanding number of issued payment cards, debit and credit, totaled 1.8 million as at end-October 2011, up by 6.4% from end-October 2010, with resident cardholders accounting for 97% of total cards issued in the country.

As to the number of ATMs, it reached 1,307 at end-October 2011, up by 3.5% from 1,263 at end-October 2010. The distribution of ATMs by region shows that 46.4% of the machines are located in Beirut and its suburbs, 25.6% in Mount Lebanon, 10.3% in North Lebanon, 8.8% in South Lebanon, 7.0% in the Bekaa, and 2.1% in Nabatiyeh.

The average monthly domestic POS purchases made by residents through payment cards amounted to US$ 132.0 million in the first ten months of 2011, up by 23.3% from the US$ 107.0 million average during the same period of 2010. This growth reflects a rise in domestic demand as shown by the ongoing propensity of Lebanese residents to enhance their expenditures. The average monthly value of cash withdrawals by residents using ATMs reached US$ 452.7 million in the first ten months of 2011, up by 10.0% from US$ 411.5 million posted during the same period of 2010.

Meanwhile, the average monthly domestic POS purchases made by non-residents went up by18.1% year-on-year in the first ten month of 2011 to reach US$ 223.9 million versus US$ 189.7 million a year earlier. With regards to ATM withdrawals by non-residents, it edged up by a yearly 6.1% to reach US$ 692.8 million in the aforementioned period of 2011 against US$ 652.8 million a year earlier.

The 18.1% growth in POS purchases by non-residents in the first ten months of 2011 compares to a yearly growth of 6.4% over the corresponding period of 2010. The 6.1% increase in ATM withdrawals by non-residents over the first ten months of 2011 is compared to an 8.2% rise a year earlier. This shows that expenditures by non-locals have been recovering as tourists have flocked into the country after the government formation in June and Ramadan holidays.

Local card payments in LP accounted for 12.9% of total payments in all currencies during the first ten months of 2011, up from a share of 12.2% a year earlier, whereas 65.4% of withdrawals were in local currency during the first ten months of 2011 against a share of 66.5% in the same period of 2010.

CONSTRUCTION PERMITS IN LEBANON (FIRST ELEVEN MONTHS OF THE YEAR)

Sources: Orders of Engineers of Beirut and Tripoli, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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SURVEYS_____________________________________________________________________________CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS IN THE LAST QUARTER OF 2011 AS PER BAYT.COM

According to the latest consumer confidence index conducted by the job site Bayt.com in December 2011, consumer confidence in Lebanon witnessed a drop at the end of the final quarter of 2011 relative to the third quarter of the year.

Lebanon’s consumer confidence index contracted by 12.9 points and reached 96.8 in December 2011 relative to 109.8 in September 2011. However, consumer confidence was almost equal to that of December 2010 when it attained 97 pts, within the context of equally unstable political conditions, days prior to the government resignation.

When asked about their current financial position compared to that of last year, 17% considered that it was better, 37% said it remained the same while 42% estimated it was worse. Pertaining to the country’s economy, 11% said that it was doing better, 40% answered that the situation remains the same, and 44% said that it has worsened.

In terms of the current business conditions, 20% considered that it was a good period, 30% were neutral on the subject and 43% assessed that it was a bad period. As for employment, 61% of the interviewed Lebanese stated that there were very few available jobs, 27% said there were not many available jobs, and 7% considered that there were plenty of available jobs. Within the same context, the majority of 40% said that the number of employees working in their organization remained the same as that of last year, 28% indicated that it had decreased and 17% answered that it increased.

When asked whether their salaries has kept a pace with the cost of living compared to last year, 76% of Lebanese respondents stated that it did not do so, 13% said that it was in line with the increase of the cost of living and 4% stated that its growth exceeded that of the cost of living.

A perception of the future showed that 43% of the Lebanese respondents considered that their financial position would improve within a year’s time, while 20% said that it would remain the same and 15% estimated that it would worsen. On the other hand, 22% of the interviewees think that the country’s economic conditions would be better in a year’s time, 24% said that it would remain the same and 39% indicated that it would worsen.

Sources: Bayt.com, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

EXPECTATIONS FOR BUSINESS & EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS IN A YEAR'S TIME

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MENA GOLD RESERCES STATISTICS (TONNES)

Sources: World Gold Council, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

______________________________________________________________________________LEBANON 18TH GLOBALLY IN TERMS OF GOLD HOLDING

According to the latest figures released by the World Gold Council, official gold holdings in Lebanon stood at 286.8 tons as of December 2011. This amount places Lebanon in the 18th position amongst the 100 countries with the highest worldwide gold reserves and the second among the 14 surveyed countries within the Middle East and North Africa region.

Globally, Lebanon was outperformed by the United Kingdom which had total holdings of 310.3 tons, while it came before Spain with 281.6 tons, Austria with 280.0 tons, and Belgium with 227.5 tons.

Regionally, Lebanon’s gold reserves were exceeded by those of Saudi Arabia which has 322.9 tons. Lebanon’s holdings surpassed those of Algeria which had a total of 173.6 tons in gold reserves as at end-2011. It was followed by Libya with 143.8 tons, Kuwait with 79.0 tons, Egypt with 75.6 tons, Syria with 25.8 tons, Morocco with 22.0 tons, and Jordan with 12.8 tons.

Lebanon's total gold reserves account for 17.6% of its total foreign reserves which places it in the 17th position on a global basis, after the European Central Bank and before Ecuador. On a regional basis, Lebanon was outperformed by Algeria which has a share of 79.5% of gold reserves as a percentage of total foreign reserves.

A snapshot of the country’s part in gold reserves shows that it accounted for 0.9% of global holdings with this share being the second highest amongst the 14 countries of the Middle East and North Africa.

Lebanon’s gold holdings accounted for around 24.5% of total gold holdings of the 14 surveyed Middle East and North Africa countries. Accordingly, Lebanon was second after Saudi Arabia which has a share of 27.6%. Algeria and Libya came directly after Lebanon with 14.8% and 12.3% respectively.

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CORPORATE NEWS_____________________________________________________________________________SANAD MAKES FIRST SME INVESTMENT IN LEBANON

SANAD Fund announced that it has signed a senior loan facility totaling US$ 5 million with BLC Bank S.A.L, thus concluding its first investment in Lebanon.

The facility would enable BLC Bank to further enhance its small and medium enterprise loan program, which therefore paves the way for better access to long-term credit for small and medium enterprises (SME) in Lebanon. According to company statements, this facility comes within the context of the importance of SMEs to the country, which would contribute, throughout all sectors, to employment creation mainly amongst youth.

The SANAD Fund was initiated in August 2011 by KfW Entwicklungsbank (The German Development Bank) with funding from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and the European Commission. The Fund provides debt and equity financing to partner institutions (PIs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region that serve micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). These PIs are not only banks and microfinance institutions, but also other financial intermediaries such as financial service providers, guarantee funds or venture capital funds. The SANAD Fund said it would initially operate in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia, then start running activities in the following countries: Algeria, Iraq, Morocco, Palestinian territory, Syria and Yemen.

SANAD BUSINESS OPERATIONS (AS AT END-SEPTEMBER 2011)

Sources: SANAD for MSME factsheet, Bank Audi's Group Research department

_____________________________________________________________________________ARABIA 500 RANKS 12 LEBANESE FIRMS AMONGST FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES IN THE ARAB WORLD

According to AllWorld Network’s Arabia list of the fastest growing companies in the Arab World, Turkey, and Pakistan,12 Lebanese companies were included in the rankings and two Lebanese start-ups were identified amongst start-ups to watch. The 12 aforementioned entities had a revenue growth during the 2008-2010 period ranging between 22% and 218%.

A sectoral breakdown shows that three companies are specialized in food and industries, two in advertizing and marketing, two in construction and engineering, and one in each of the following: automotive, environmental services, finance and insurance, high-tech and telecommunications, manufacturing and packaging, public relations/media and publishing, and travel and tourism.

The rankings showed that Jordan had the highest number of fastest growing companies on the list amongst other countries from the Levant region with a total of 27, followed by Lebanon with a total of 14, Palestine with two and Syria with one firm.

The Arabia 500 is a ranking of the fastest growing companies in the Middle East, North Africa, Turkey and Pakistan. The Arabia500+Turkey+Pakistan companies are divided into three categories with the first being ranked companies including those with at least three years of operating history and a minimum

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of US$ 500,000 in sales, the second being start-ups which includes entities with usually just a year or two old and growing rapidly and companies to watch as those with terrific growth until 2008 that managed to sustain sales through the downturn.

FASTEST GROWING LEBANESE COMPANIES

Sources: Arabia500, Bank Audi's Group Research Department______________________________________________________________________________MEPS & MOBIBUCKS IN DEAL TO OFFER CASHLESS PAYMENT SERVICES IN LEVANT

Middle East Payment Services (MEPS), a consortium of seven Arab banks providing payment processing services in the Middle East, and MOBIbucks, a mobile payments technology company, concluded an agreement that enables consumers in the Levant region which includes Lebanon, Jordan and Syria to have access to the first cardless and cashless payment service. MOBIbucks officials announced that the service would soon be offered in other parts of the Middle East.

This service would enable consumers to make everyday purchases by using a cell phone number, without the need for cash, card or mobile phone to be in the user's possession. Through this partnership, MEPS will offer the MOBIbucks mobile payment solution to banks as well as to businesses, such as restaurants, fast food outlets and coffee shops. MOBIbucks is a system with a wide variety of functionalities that would be used by consumers for such things as frequent low-value purchases, person-to-person (P2P) payments and money transfers, among others. ______________________________________________________________________________TURKEY’S HAREMLIQUE OPENS FIRST STORE OUTSIDE TURKEY IN BEIRUT

Turkey’s Haremlique inaugurated its expansionabroad with the first store outside Turkey in the Beirut Central District.

Brought to Lebanon by exclusive agent Hakim Supply s.a.l, the store carries Haremlique’s bed linens sets, towels and bathrobes, throws, decorative pillows, make-up bags and bath/bedroom accessories. All these items have been designed and produced in Turkey.

Alongside the textile brand “Haremlique” is the “Selamlique” brand that specialises in fine Turkish coffee and accessories. Selamlique, which is already being sold in Harrods, London will also soon be coming to Beirut.

Hakim Supply s.a.l is a company based in Beirut. Specialized in the distribution of internationally renowned brands supplying sanitary ware, ceramics, faucets and accessories, bathtubs, shower enclosures, and others like Vitra, Burgbad, Marazzi, Percellan and more, Hakim Supply s.a.l is expanding its portfolio to include kitchens.

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CAPITAL MARKETS_____________________________________________________________________________MONEY MARKET: M4 EXPANDS BY LP 765 BILLION WEEK-ON-WEEK

The overnight rate remained stable at its low official level of 2.75% set by the Central Bank of Lebanon, within the context of ample local currency liquidity at hand. As to Certificates of Deposits, tiny subscriptions of LP 35 billion were made this week in the 60-day category. Interest rates on the 45-day and 60-day CDs categories remained stable at 3.57% and 3.85% respectively.

At the monetary aggregates level, figures for the week ending 22nd of December 2011 released this week showed a growth in local currency deposits of LP 477 billion, as a result of a rise of LP 296 billion in LP time deposits and an increase of LP 181 billion in LP demand deposits week-on-week. Deposits in foreign currencies grew by US$ 210 million. These weekly variations compare to an average weekly decline of LP 1 billion for total LP deposits, and an average weekly rise of US$ 104 million in foreign currency deposits since the beginning of the year 2011. Total money supply in its large sense (M4) expanded by LP 765 billion week-on-week, as compared to an average weekly growth of LP 156 billion since the beginning of the year 2011.

On a cumulative basis, money supply in its large sense (M4) widened by LP 8,432 billion since the beginning of the year 2011. This is the result of a rise in foreign currency deposits of LP 8,364 billion (the equivalent of US$ 5,548 million), an increase in local currency denominated time deposits of LP 257 billion, a contraction in money supply (M1) of LP 17 billion, and a decrease in Treasury bills held by the public of LP 172 billion since the beginning of the year 2011.

_____________________________________________________________________________TREASURY BILLS MARKET: NOMINAL DEFICIT OF LP 49 BILLION

The latest auction’s results (January 05, 2012) continued to show stability in yields, with the average yield on the three-month, six-month and five-year categories standing at 3.93%, 4.50% and 6.18% respectively.

On the other hand, the auction results for value date December 29th, 2011 released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that total subscriptions amounted to LP 261 billion and were distributed as follows: LP 32 billion in the one-year category, LP 27 billion in the two-year category, and LP 202 billion in the three-year category. These compare to maturities of LP 310 billion, resulting in a nominal deficit of LP 49 billion.

On a cumulative basis, total subscriptions amounted to LP 23,538 billion in 2011 and were distributed as follows: LP 706 billion in the three-month category (3.0%), LP 2,338 billion in the six-month category (9.9%), LP 956 billion in the one-year category (4.1%), LP 2,510 billion in the two-year category (10.7%), LP 5,814 billion in the three-year category (24.7%), LP 4,787 billion in the five-year category (20.3%) and LP 6,427 billion in the seven-year category (27.3%). These compare to maturities of LP 19,573 billion, which led to a nominal surplus of LP 3,965 billion.

INTEREST RATES

Source: Thomson Reuters

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TREASURY BILLS

Source: Central Bank of Lebanon

_____________________________________________________________________________STOCK MARKET: SMALL INCREASE IN PRICE INDEX OF 0.5%

Activity was weak on the Beirut Stock Exchange during this week that was shortened to three working days. The total trading value was limited to US$ 1.7 million versus US$ 3.2 million in the previous week and a weekly average trading value of US$ 10.1 million in 2011. The average daily trading value amounted to circa US$ 578 thousand this week against US$ 796 thousand last week, which led to a drop in the trading volume index of 27.3% to 23.88. As far as prices are concerned, the BSE price index went up slightly by 0.5% week-on-week to close at 110.89.

_____________________________________________________________________________FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: DECLINE IN BDL’S FOREIGN ASSETS TO US$ 32.2 BILLION

This week was a relatively quiet week on the foreign exchange market. Activity was balanced in relatively low volumes, while commercial banks traded the US Dollar at a rate hovering between LP 1,505.00 and LP 1,508.00. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Lebanon remained on the sidelines.

The Central Bank’s latest bi-monthly balance sheet ending 31st of December 2011 showed that foreign assets declined by US$ 114 million during the second half of December to reach US$ 32.2 billion at end-December. The BDL’s foreign assets covered 81.5% of LP money supply, with this coverage ratio rising to 117.9% when accounting for gold reserves estimated at US$ 14.4 billion. In addition, the Central Bank’s foreign assets covered 19.1 months of imports. These ratios reflect the BDL’s strong ability to defend the currency peg and meet demand for foreign currencies should any pressures arise. It is worth mentioning that BDL’s foreign assets increased by US$ 1.6 billion in 2011. This compares to a higher growth of US$ 2.3 million in 2010.

EXCHANGE RATES

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

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11Week 02 January 02 - January 08, 2012

JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012

WEEK 02

EUROBONDS INDICATORS

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

In details, Solidere shares accounted for 48.2% of activity this week. Solidere “A” share price rose by 2.0% to US$ 14.67, and Solidere “B” share price edged up by 0.3% to close at US$ 14.55. The banking shares accounted for 51.5% of the total trading value. Bank Audi’s “listed” share price declined by 1.9% to US$ 5.70. Bank Audi’s GDR price surged by 6.2% to US$ 5.99. Byblos Bank’s “listed” share price dropped by 3.1% to close at US$ 1.58. BLOM’s GDR price increased by 0.5% to US$ 7.49. BLOM’s GDR price nudged up by 0.5% to US$ 7.49. BLC’s share price jumped by 5.0% to US$ 1.90. As to industrial stocks, Holcim’s share price decreased by 0.5% to US$ 16.89.

The Beirut Stock Exchange performed better than other Arabian markets, as evidenced by 0.5% decline in the S&P Pan-Arab Composite Index. However, it performed relatively similarly to other emerging markets, as shown by a 1.1% rise in the S&P Emerging Market Composite Index.

_____________________________________________________________________________BOND MARKET: TINY EXPANSION IN AVERAGE SPREAD

The bond market witnessed a local activity in relatively low volumes, while foreign players remained outside the market. Bond prices remained stable week-on-week, while the average spread widened slightly by three basis points to reach 324 basis points due to a small rise in Lebanese yields and a decline in international benchmark yields.

For instance, the five-year US Treasury yield declined from 0.91% last week to 0.86% this week as an increase in borrowing costs in France and Hungary added to concerns that the European debt crisis is spreading, boosting demand for the safest securities.

As to the cost of insuring debt, Lebanon’s five-year CDS spread hovered between 450 and 480 basis points, with no change relative to the previous week.

AUDI INDICES FOR BSE

Sources: Beirut Stock Exchange, Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

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12Week 02 January 02- January 08, 2012

JANUARY 02 - JANUARY 08, 2012

WEEK 02

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INDICATORS

Sources: Bloomberg ,Bank Audi's Group Research Department

___________________________________________________________________________DISCLAIMER

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Although Bank Audi Sal Audi Saradar Group considers the content of this publication reliable, it shall have no liability for its content and makes no warranty, representation or guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.