Consumer confidence is often cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan

Greenspan as a key determinant of near-term economic

growth (Greenspan, 2002)

People can grab onto a small situation that

garners a lot of mainstream press, such as gas

prices, and use that as their basis for overall

economic conditions, fair or not.

There are no real data sets here, and people are

not economists, so they cannot be counted on to

realize that, for example, because gas prices may

only represent 5% of their expenses, they should

not sour their entire economic outlook.

To assess near-time consumer attitudes on the

business climate, personal finance, and spending

To promote an understanding of, and to forecast

changes in, the national economy

To provide a means of incorporating empirical

measures of consumer expectations into models

of spending and saving behavior

To gauge the economic expectations and

probable future spending behavior of the

consumer

To judge the consumer's level of

optimism/pessimism

Mishkin (1978) finds the Index of ConsumerSentimentdoes a good job of predicting spending on consumer durables

Matsusaka and Sbordone (1995) find a relation between the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and GDP growth

Recently, Gelper et al (2007); Jason Bram and Sydney Ludvigson (1998); Carroll et al. (1994)also found that the Index of Consumer Sentiment has predictive power for future consumer consumption

Kantona (1956) in Consumer Expectation 1953-56 quoted that Consumer Survey will catch the consumers characteristic of their optimism or pessimism.

StrengthsOne of few indicators that reaches out to average households

Has historically been a good predictor of consumer spending and, therefore, the gross domestic product (consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of real GDP)

Weaknesses:A subjective survey with no physical data sets

Small sample size (only 5,000 households)

Survey results may contradict other indicators, such as GDP and the Labor report

Daniel M. Merkle, Gary E. Langer & Dalia Sussman, 2003. Consumer

Confidence: Measurement and Meaning.

Tri. IV 2014 Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III

<2 Juta Rupiah 54,23 50,00 48,12 47,39

2 s/d 5 Juta Rupiah 35,38 36,40 39,33 41,74

>5 Juta Rupiah 10,38 13,60 12,55 10,87

TW- IV 2014 TW I TW II TW III

SD 27,31 26,40 25,94 27,39

SMP 13,46 14,00 17,99 11,74

SLTA 38,46 40,40 33,89 38,26

Akademi 3,85 3,60 3,77 3,04

Sarjana 15,38 14,00 15,06 15,65

Pascasarjana 1,54 1,60 3,35 3,91

Tri. IV 2014 Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III

Primer 6,54 8,40 10,46 9,57

Skunder 15,39 15,60 14,65 15,22

Tersier 66,15 64,40 66,53 67,83

Penerima pendapatan 11,92 11,60 8,37 7,39

Tri. IV 2012 Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III

Berusaha 39,23 39,60 39,49 35,22

Buruh/Karyawan/Pegawai 48,85 48,80 53,14 57,39

Penerima pendapatan 11,92 11,60 8,37 7,39

102.42

106.32

110.32 110.26

104.70

108.02

112.06109.89

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

Tri. I Tri. II Tri. III Tri. IV*)

Lampung

Nasional

Bagaimana perubahan harga barang/jasa

kebutuhan rumah tangga selama 3 bulan

terakhir (Januari-Maret 2015) dibandingkan 3

bulan yang lalu (Oktober-Desember 2014):

Meningkat (> 20%) -1 Relatif sama -4

Meningkat sedang (10-20%) -2 Menurun -5

Meningkat sedikit (<10%) - 3

Jika jawaban Relatif sama (kode 4) langsung

ke Rincian 7

Kelompok Barang/JasaMening

kat

TetapMenurun

Perubahan Volume:

1. Bahan makanan/minuman. 1 2 3

2. Makanan/minuman jadi,

rokok, tembakau, dan makan di

restoran/rumah makan.

1 2 3

3.Pakaian 1 2 3

4.Pembelian Pulsa HP 1 2 3

Perubahan Frekuensi:

5. Rekreasi/hiburan (nonton di

bioskop, karaoke, ke tempat

hiburan)

1 2 3

6. Akomodasi (hotel/penginapan) 1 2 3

7. Transportasi 1 2 3

8. Perawatan kesehatan dan

kecantikan (gym, salon, spa,

dll. )

1 2 3

6. Bagaimana volume/frekuensi konsumsi barang/jasa

di bawah ini selama 3 bulan terakhir (Januari-Maret

2015) dibandingkan 3 bulan sebelumnya (Oktober-

Desember 2014)

15. Menurut Bapak/Ibu, apakah dalam 3 bulan

terakhir (Januari-Maret 2015) merupakan

waktu yang tepat bagi rumah tangga untuk

membeli barang-barang tahan lama, seperti

barang elektronik (televisi, laptop, komputer),

peralatan rumah tangga (kulkas, kompor gas,

AC, mesin cuci), perhiasan logam/batu mulia

perabot meubelair (meja/kursi, lemari,

buffet), perangkat komunikasi (telepon seluler,

tablet), dan alat olahraga dan kesehatan

(sepeda, treadmill, dll):

Ya, waktu yang tepat -1

Tidak, bukan waktu yang tepat -2

Lainnya -3

Life is largely a matter of expectation.

- Horace

Life is largely a matter of expectation.

- Horace