construction of mitigation scenarios post …€¦ · construction of mitigation scenarios post...

CONSTRUCTION OF MITIGATION SCENARIOS POST 2020

1. General Background2. Types of goals and iNDC3. National baseline

Partnership for Market Readiness Technical Workshop‘Upstream Policy Analysis for INDCs: Approaches, Challenges,

Opportunities’ Barcelona, May 29th, 2015

1 – GENERAL BACKGROUND

Emisiones de GEI (IPCC, Fifth AR, 2014)

Emisiones de GEI Colombia – año 2010 (Ideam, BUR, 2014)

219.558 Gg CO2 eq

Macroeconomic assumptions

Baselines and sectoral mitigation options.

(Using sectorial models)SBT’s

Agriculture and FOLUPowerCoal, Oi and Natural GasTransportationHouseholds IndustryWaste

Sectoral expertsDecision takers

GovernmentAcademy

PASGovernment(Ministries) Involved agents

Intersectoral relationshipsMacroeconomic assumptions

(Hybrid BU-TD models)

Information for the

Colombian INDC

Sectoral expertsGovernment

Academy

Ongoing work

Co-benefit analysisOther analysis

Baseline 2010- 2040:

Baseline

2- TYPE OF GOALS AND iNDC

Goals for emission mitigation

• Absolut

• Peak

• Baseline

• Carbon intensity

• Single year

• Multiple year

• Peak and decline

iNDC proposals

• Some Annex 1 countries : Absolute goal

– Swiss: reduction of 50% of its reported emissions on 1990 in 2030.

– Noway: reduction of 40% of its reported emissions on 1990 in 2030.

– United States: reduction of 26-28% of its reported emissions on 2005

in 2030. (17% in 2020)

– Russia: reduction of 25-30% of its reported emissions on 1990 in

2030.

iNDC proposals

• Non-Annex 1 countries: Baseline and carbon intensity

– México: two goals by 2030: (i) unconditioned abatement of 25% of its

GHG (22% of GHG and 3% of other pollutants) with respect to its

baseline, (ii) abatement of 25% of its GHG (36% of GHG and 3% of

other pollutants) with respect to its baseline conditioned to market

mechanisms, international cooperartion, funding, technology transfer.

– Chile: reduction of carbon intensity 30-35% with respect to 2007 by

2025; 40-45% by 2030. This goal does not include the FOLU related

emissions.

– Perú

– Brasil

3 – NATIONAL BASELINEIN REVIEW AND CONSTRUCTION

Baseline estimations

Comparison with BUR 2015

Based on the 2014 study

Use new availableinformation

Review growing rates

Comparison with officialdocuments

National developing plan

Identification of relevantmeasures and policies

Mitigation actions

Based on the 2014 study

Measures extended in potential and cost up to2050

FOLU is included

Implementation mechanisms

Identification of currentlyavailable policy instruments

Proposal of mechanism

Macroeconomic impact assessment

National baseline(Mton CO2 eq)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BAU RBS (Combinado)

CAGR

Variables macro

PIB 3.9%

Pob. 1.0%

PIB/hab. 3.1%

In revision-Do not divulgate

ton CO2eq/ hab

BAU

2010 4,8

2030 6,0

2050 8.1

kg CO2eq/USD$

BAU

2010 0.436

2030 0.293

2050 0.212

Baseline - Energy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

Mill

on

es C

O2

eq

EMISSIONS 2010-2050

Demanda Generación de Electricidad Refinerias Otras industrias Energéticas

Baseline - Energy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

Mill

on

es C

O2

eq

EMISSIONS 2010-2050

Otros Sectores Transporte base UPME Generación de Electricidad Refinerias Otras industrias Energéticas

Baseline - Energy

• Energy demand growth according to PEN : Ideario Energético 2050 (UPME, 2015).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Mill

on

es C

O2

eq

Total emissions 2010-2050

Mitigation Options PND - Energy• Diversification of the power mix with non-hydro technologies according to

OECD OECD recomendation to integrate low carbon solutions.

• Renewable Portfolio for power genration (UPME, Plan de expansión de G y T)

– 10,5% capacity 2015 – 2028.

– Generation: 2,5% -7,5%.

• Power generation schemes with FRNC, hybrid systems and energy efficiency for the NIA. Bussiness schemes with public and privated investment (as exclusive service zones)

• Energy efficiency in the final consumption sector (no specific goals)

• Diversification of the transport’s energy mix

• Use of coal gas methane .

Escenario – Energy efficiency

• Energy demand growth

according to PEN : Ideario

Energético 2050 (UPME,

2015).

• A set of measures devoted to improve energy efficiency is considered accorging to (UPME, 2015).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

nC

O2

eq

Referencia PNDUPME

Proposed instruments- Energy

• Carbon tax and royalties investment for carbon storage by reforestation in the case of the coal mining. Do not reduce employment.

• Incentives aditional to to th fiscal ones (net rent deduction, acelerated depreciation, VAT deduction)deducción de renta líquida, depreciación acelerada, deducción de IVA ) contempled in the 1715 law (Law for increase the RNW, DG and DSM).

• Funding of renwable energies and DSM: FENOGE and other such as Bancoldex and ANDI-UPME agreement.

• Resources for R+D+I– Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS), with international support.

– Adoption, adaptation and development of Smart grids/cities technologies,

Proposed instruments- Energy

• Financial funds (investment subsidies) to increase electricity coverage with hybrid solutions, and the substitution of wood to LPG.

• Regulation flatten the playing field for new technologies and sources. Regulation-free zones.

• Technical standards and regulations (RETIQ, …)

• Education on Energy use

Current status

• In January, the analytical team from Los Andes began work on thescenarios and calculations to establish a national target (Phase III). Thiswork is based on aggregated scenarios that take into account outcomesfrom previous phases.

• A workshop was held on March 13th in Bogota with the aim of presentingprogress so far, including the required-by-science and equity scenarios, baselines and methodological approaches for the following steps.

• Final sectoral meetings are currently undergoing in order to define themitigation escenarios

Sector

Subsector

$33,34

-$50,77

-$176,75

5,85

Antesde2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050

Potencial 0,00 0,05 0,49 0,79 1,97 2,55

InversiónVPN $0,00 $9,84 $23,50 $0,00 $0,00 $0,00

InversiónCAE $0,00 $2,60 $6,20 $0,00 $0,00 $0,00

AOMVPN $0,00 -$10,51 -$112,67 -$142,36 -$176,06 -$88,20

AOMCAE $0,00 -$2,77 -$29,72 -$37,55 -$28,65 -$14,35

Otrosimpactos

económicos2

Sustitucióndebombillosincandescentes

Energía

Residencial

Consiste en reemplazar la totalidad de los bombillos incandescentes utilizados en las viviendas urbanas por bombillos más eficientes que

continúencumpliendoconlasnecesidadesdeiluminación.

InversiónVPN(MillonesUSD) Períodooañodeiniciode

implementación2019-2025

AOMCAE(MillonesUSD)

Elementoshabilitantes 2

Costoefectividad(USD/TonCO2eq)Temporalidaddelosimpactos Cortoplazo

Potencialdereducción(MtonCO2eq)

Cobeneficios 0Disminucióndelademandadeenergíaeléctrica.

Reduccióndelgastodelosusuariosenelserviciodeenergíaeléctrica.

AumentodecompetitividadenelmercadodebombillosLFC.

Viabilidaddeimplementación

Riesgo 2Se requiere la creación de un centro de tratamiento y disposición de los residuos

tóxicosdebombillosLFC.

PolíticasinvolucradasPortafoliosdegeneracióneléctrica

MecanismosdeMedición,ReporteyVerificación

MecanismosfinancierosLamedidaesconsistenteconlasmetasdelProure.

InstrumentosregulatoriosResolución 182544 de 2010en la cual se restringe la fabricación y uso de bombillos incandescentes en

elpaís.

AgentesinvolucradosMinisterio de Minas y Energía, Ministerio de Hacienda, Ministerio de Vivienda, UPME, Fabricantes y

comercializadoresdebombillos,Usuariosresidenciales.

-2

-1

0

1

2 Costoefec vidad

Potencialdereducción

Cobenefici os

Riesgo Temporalidadimpactos

Elementoshabilitantes

Inversión

0,0

0,1

0,1

0,2

0,2

0,3

0,3$(300)

$(250)

$(200)

$(150)

$(100)

$(50)

$-

$50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MtonCO2eq

MillonesUSD

2010

Potencial Inversión CostosAOM

Baseline- Transportation

• Info updated 2011-2014– Motorization rates

– Trips in urban public transport systems (compliance with sectoral targets)

• Comparison and corrections with respect to emissions reported in BUR (for 2010)– Internationa emissions

– Accounting for biomass emissions

• Comparison with UPME scenarios

– Uniandes 2010 - 2040

– UPME 2012 - 2030


– Reference scenario (Uniandes): Defined as the most probable. Assumptions made by sectorl experts (SBTs).

– Baseline Escenario (UPME): tendencial + improvements in technologies and energy mix changes.

– Difference of 25 million tons of CO2 2012-2030.

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emis

ion

es C

O2

(mill

on

es t

on

elad

as)

Referencia UPME - Base


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emis

ion

es C

O2

(mill

on

es t

on

elad

as)

Referencia UPME - Base

Assumptions Uniandes & UPME

Same assumptions

‐ Scrappage‐ Technological improvement‐ More NG in the heavy vehicles

Diferentassumptions

‐ Average age of the fleet‐ Motorization rates and fleet growth‐ Urban travel: metropolitan areas and

modal split

Additional options

• Interurban passenger transportation– Impact of the 4G

concessions?

• Taxis

Proposed instruments – Transport (PND)

• Revision of the subsidy scheme applied to diesel and petrol.

• Measures to facilitate conversion to autogas, the compressed natural gas (CNG), electric mobility (especially in mass transit) and the use of biofuels.

• Reducing barriers to access to electricity and autogas technology, creating symmetrical to NGV conditions.

Baseline- AFOLU

FOLU– National scenario like the Amazon

2013 – 2017 scenario (Historical average period 2000-20012 + 10%) Then only average from 2000 to 2012.

– Land Use Changes have the same proportion of coverage presented in the BUR.

Agricultural– It grows proportionally with the

number of cattle in the country.

25,000 ha/año

5,000 ha/año

205,000 ha/año

Proposed instruments - Agriculture• Avocado and Mango plantations

– Financial and economic: credit accompanied by technical assistance for corporatisation (associativity and marketing).

• Best practices fertilization of rice and extension program for best practices in the potato crop– Financial and economic: credit Finagro.

– Voluntary type: education about the benefits of proper fertilization.

• Pasture rehabilitation in the Orinoco− Financial and economic: credit.

− Voluntary type: education about the benefits of technology.

• Microlevelling the land in rice cultivation− Financial type: subsidy.

• Biodigesters for drying coffee− Financial and economic: credit.

− Voluntary type: education about the benefits of technology.

Proposed instruments – Land Use Changes• Rational grazing in the Orinoco flood

• Voluntary type: education about the benefits of adequate pasture rotation.

• Amazon introduced pastures in Plana and the Rolling Amazon• Voluntary type: education about the benefits of the measure.

• Intensive silvopastoral systems• Voluntary action type (lifestyle changes).

• Information: education, research, technical assistance, dissemination.

• Forest plantations• Direct instruments: the Government must provide security for investment, leverage

investment, support until the returns on investment, risk management (climate and forest fires) are met; possible environmental licensing requirement for large plantations.

• Financial and economic instruments: credit and promotion Forestry Incentive Certificate (CIF).

• Public goods: improved production and marketing infrastructure. Research and technical assistance.

Baseline- Waste

• Currently in revision

– Methodology for establishing the base line of the sector.

– Official data and fundamentals of input assumptions to the models.

PND mitigation options - Waste

• Suitable delivery systems of public toilet service and disposal activities and use.

• Decrease in waste generation and increase recycling and recovery rates.

• Development of legal, institutional and technical management of risks to health and the environment related to chemicals framework.

• Increased waste through the closure and decommissioning of inadequate disposal sites.

• Oriented productive sectors in order to identify opportunities for using and recycling materials (waste as inputs), by the environmental authorities.

PND mitigation options - Wastewater

• Desarrollo de sistemas integrales sostenibles en el programa de manejo y saneamiento de vertimientos en distintas cuencas.

• Definición de políticas de drenaje urbano.

• Aumento del acceso de agua potable y manejo de aguas residuales en zonas rurales.

Other mitigation options PND

• Reducing consumption of substances that deplete the ozone layer.– Promote use of alternatives that do not affect the ozone layer and have low global

warming potential.

– Reducing consumption of exhausting ozone products.

• Integrated pollution management, with emphasis on conversion to cleaner technologies:– Program pollution and efficient use of water recuros.

– Process monitoring and surveillance of water quality.

– Establishing water quality objectives and permissible limits for discharges into the sea.

Proposed instruments - Solid waste (Three actors)

• Users– Taxes for waste disposal according to the amount

– Excise tax on specific products

– Instruments deposit / refund

• Manufacturers / Producers / Importers– Tax to materials

– Extended producer responsibility• Implementation systems own waste management company

• Hiring third parties who are responsible for waste management

• Municipal finance systems of solid waste management

• Administrators of treatment facilities– Use / Biogas burning mandatory

– Implementation of goals in landfill biogas

– Incentives for implementation of solid waste to reduce the amount dumped in landfills

construction of mitigation scenarios post …€¦ · construction of mitigation scenarios post...

Documents