Conservation management for an uncertain future

Mike Morecroft

Outline

• Science, policy and practise• Conservation and climate change• Forecasting and systems approaches

Scientist Policy Maker

Science and ‘policy’?

advice

Questions£ $ €

Scientist Scienceadvisor

PracticalConservationist Senior manager

Decisionmaker

Policyadvisor

Land manager

Simplified ‘advice chain’

Action!

Simplified ‘advice web’

Different niches in the advice web

Different requirements e.g.• Science advisor – detailed understanding• Politician – implications for other policy areas• Land manager – practical guidance

Complementary expertise• Societal context critical• Learning from experience

Scientist Scienceadvisor

PracticalConservationist Senior manager

Decisionmaker

Policyadvisor

Land manager

Aspirational ‘advice web’

Action!

Conservation and climate change(and other environmental changes)

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intensificationfragmentationhabitat loss (and gain)

agriculture

air pollution

Pressures on ecosystems

climate change

development

invasive species

etc.

time

The past is not a reliable guide to the future→ we need ‘forecasting’

Direct effects of climate change• Shifting distributions• Changing phenology• Disrupted interactions between species• Extreme event effects (e.g. drought / fire)• Rising sea level

• CO2 effects: Fertilisation, water use efficiency, acidification

Indirect effects of climate change• Changing agricultural practise / crops• Changing catchment management

(water supply / flood management)• Energy crops• Carbon management• Changing coastal management• Renewable energy (e.g. hydro)

Etc!

Oblong woodsia Stag beetle

Changes in potential distribution (MONARCH programme 2080’s high scenario)

LossGainContinue

Average northward shift of 16 taxa over past 30 years

Hickling et al 2006

impacts

adaptation

modellingmonitoring

mitigation

Adaptation Principles30478true0Falsenone0x1A832CBrowseBrowsefalse/wEPDwU/wEWCQL

EBS Adaptation Principles (Smithers et al, 2009)

• Take practical action now • Maintain and increase ecological resilience• Accommodate change• Integrate action across partners and sectors• Develop knowledge and plan strategically

Maintain and increase ecological resilience• Conserve range and ecological variability of habitats / species• Maintain existing ecological networks• Create buffer zones around high quality habitats• Take prompt action to control spread of invasive species

Accommodate change• Understand change is inevitable• Make space for the natural development of rivers and coasts• Establish ecological networks• Aid gene flow• Consider the role of species translocation / ex-situ conservation• Develop the capacity of institutions• Respond to changing conservation priorities

Resilience or accommodation?

enable persistence -------> accept change

resilience accommodation

Changing approach as the climate changes

1°C > 2°C > 3°C > 4°C

Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England

• Research and development• Vulnerability assessment• Managed realignment• Habitat heterogeneity guidance• Peatland restoration• Adaptation and mitigation through

Environmental Stewardship

• Investigate and reduce your carbon emissions

• Protect soil and water

• Increase tree cover

• Protect wildlife

Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England

• Research and development• Vulnerability assessment• Managed realignment• Habitat heterogeneity guidance• Peatland restoration• Adaptation and mitigation through

Environmental Stewardship• Designations (changing species / boundaries)• Habitat networks

Role of forecasting and systems approaches

Do we still need modelling?

• Not always!• Prediction / direction of travel• Explore scenarios• Modelling can help understanding

– Compare sensitivities – Identify dependencies– Test interactions and attribution

• Investigate response options• Provide visualisation• Quantification e.g. carbon fluxes

Climate envelope models

• Available data• Large number of species possible• Good for visualisation

But• Non-climate limitations on distributions• Dispersal limitations• Non-analagous climates• Etc.

Process modelling?

• Population studies of rare species• Carbon storage• Catchment management• Dispersal / network design• Components of DGVMs• Land use planning• Etc.

• Distribution modelling?

Pitfalls for modellers

• Over-emphasising prediction vs. exploring scenarios

• Over-stating accuracy• Detachment from practical problems

climateprojections

ecosystem responses

Uncertainty

X

Plan for uncertainty: risk management

Coping with uncertainty

• No regrets measures

• Adaptive management approach

• Monitoring and research

adapt

monitor

review

Conclusions

• Beware of simplistic view of ‘policy’• Shifting emphasis from impacts to adaptation

and mitigation• Think in terms of understanding as much as

prediction• Embrace uncertainty

Acknowledgements

• Colleagues especially Humphrey Crick, Nick Macgregor, Simon Duffield

• Collaborators and students especially Pam Berry, Mandar Trivedi, James Paterson