connecticut data: implications for higher education braden j. hosch, ph.d. connecticut board of...
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Connecticut Data:Implications for Higher Education
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education(August 13, 2013)
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Overview
• Population change
• Population Change, Enrollment, Completions and Educational Attainment
• Important Indicators• College Readiness• Student Success• Affordability• Innovation and Economic Development• Equity
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1900
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
3
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1950
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1980
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
5
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1990
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2000
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2010
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
8
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2020
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
9
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2030
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
10
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2040
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
11
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Population Change – United States
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2050
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
12
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Population Change – Connecticut
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 1990
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Population Change – Connecticut
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2000
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
14
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Population Change – Connecticut
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2010
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
15
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Population Change – Connecticut
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2020
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
16
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Population Change – Connecticut
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2030
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
17
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United States Population Change
U.S. PopulationChange in U.S. Population
(from 2010)
20-24 70+ 20-24 70+
2010 21,779,480 27,968,034 -- --
2020 21,799,193 36,943,962 19,713 8,975,928
2030 24,191,409 51,711,144 2,411,929 23,743,110
2040 26,408,192 62,249,538 4,628,712 34,281,504
2050 28,171,436 67,004,446 6,391,956 39,036,412
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Connecticut Population Change
Connecticut PopulationChange in CT Population
(from 2010)
20-24 70+ 20-24 70+
2010 233,040 369,177 -- --
2020 215,023 457,048 -18,017 87,871
2030 198,927 585,871 -34,113 216,694
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Connecticut PopulationAge 0 and Age 85+ from 1990 to 2011
19801983
19861989
19921995
19982001
20042007
20100
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
39,325
49,637
37,318
36,251
87,199
Age 0Age 85 +
20Source: U.S. Census, Intercensal estimates, 1980-89, 1990-1999, 2000-2010 , 2011
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Implications of Population Change• Shift in budget priorities from education to
health care
• Shift in mission of higher education to provide continuing education throughout the lifespan
21
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CT Public High School Graduates1970-2023
22
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
20000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
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CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount
23
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
20000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
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CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates
24
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
20000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
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CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates (+3 Years)
25
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
20,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
-5000
5000
15000
25000
35000
45000
Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
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CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment (Full-time & Part-time)
26
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
50000
100000
150000
200000
Actual Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment
Actual Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected FT & PT Undergraduate Enrollment
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
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CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
27
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
50000
100000
150000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Actual Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
Und
ergr
ad F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t
Und
ergr
adua
te C
ompl
etion
s
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CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions
28
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
50000
100000
150000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Actual Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
Und
ergr
ad F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t
Und
ergr
adua
te C
ompl
etion
s
* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion
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CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions (-2 years)
29
19701974
19781982
19861990
19941998
20022006
20102014
20182022
20260
50000
100000
150000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Actual Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
Und
ergr
ad F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t
Und
ergr
adua
te C
ompl
etion
s
* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion
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CT Educational Attainment, Ages 25-44 Pop. 25 to 44 yearsEducational Attainment N Pct Less than 9th grade 26,524 3.0 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 53,218 5.9 High school graduate, GED, or alternative 217,326 24.3 Some college, no degree 171,999 19.2 Associate's degree 68,097 7.6 Bachelor's degree 217,284 24.3 Graduate or professional degree 140,685 15.7
Total 895,133 100.0
Attained Associate's Degree or Higher 426,066 47.6At least HS diploma, no college degree 389,325 43.5
30Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2011, 1-Year Est.
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CT High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity
31
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
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CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
32
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Pct A
ssoc
iate
’s or
Hig
her
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CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
33
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Pct A
ssoc
iate
’s or
Hig
her
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Undergraduate Completions by Race/Ethnicity
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09***
2011-120
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
White Hispanic or Latino Black or African AmericanAsian/Pacific Islander American Indian More Than One RaceNon-Resident Alien Race/Ethnicity Unknown
34
*** Race/ethnicity collection and reporting changed in 2010. Subsequent data may not be comparable; interpret with caution
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Graduate Student Enrollment
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20120
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Independent Institu-tionsUniversity of Con-necticutState Universities
35
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Graduate Student Enrollment
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20120
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Part-TimeFull-Time
36
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Graduate Degree Completions
1982-83
1985-86
1988-89
1991-92
1994-95
1997-98
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Master's DegreesDoctoral/First Pro-fessional DegreesGraduate Certificates
37
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College ReadinessCT Community Colleges
Tennessee
Connecticu
t*
West
Virginia
Hawaii
Louisi
ana
Massa
chuse
tts
Maryl
and
Oklahoma
Arizona
OhioIdaho
New Mexic
o
Florid
a
Miss
ouri
Oregon
Texas
Wyo
mingIlli
nois
Indiana
Wash
ington
Virginia
Miss
issippi
Nevada
Georgia
Colorado
Kentucky
North Caro
lina
Utah0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percent of Students Enrolling in Remedial Courses in Public 2-year Institutions
38Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from entering students in 2006; CT data are from entering students in 2008 reported to CCA in 2013..
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Student Success -Time to DegreeCT Public InstitutionsAward/Entry Status Average Years State Rank
Certificate-Seeking
Full-Time 3.4 14 out of 26
Part-Time 5.0 18 out of 26
Associate’s-Seeking
Full-Time 4.3 19 out of 28
Part-Time 5.6 18 out of 28
Bachelor’s-Seeking
Full-Time 4.4* 7 out of 29*
Part-Time 5.2* 8 out of 29*
39Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.
*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.
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Student Success - Credits to DegreeCT Public InstitutionsAward/Entry Status Average Credits State Rank
Certificate-Seeking
Full-Time 77 21 out of 25
Part-Time 70 21 out of 25
Associate’s-Seeking
Full-Time 84 16 out of 28
Part-Time 85 19 out of 28
Bachelor’s-Seeking
Full-Time 125* 2 out of 29*
Part-Time 115* 2 out of 28*
40Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.
*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.
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Affordability – Student Charges
41
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%
CT Median Household Income and Tuition + Required Fees for Community Colleges and CT State Universities
Connecticut Median Household Income Connecticut Community CollegesConnecticut State Universities University of Connecticut
Med
ian
Hous
ehol
d In
com
e
Tuiti
on &
Req
uire
d Fe
es a
s Pc
t of M
HI
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State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, United States, Constant Dollars
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
2011 $-
$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000
$8,
497
$8,
473
$8,
341
$8,
244
$8,
028
$7,
580
$7,
322
$7,
419
$7,
660
$7,
741
$8,
029
$8,
290
$8,
504
$8,
427
$8,
670
$8,
352
$7,
713
$7,
195
$7,
152
$7,
486
$7,
667
$7,
781
$7,
273
$6,
729
$6,
483
$5,
906
$2,
588
$2,
652
$2,
703
$2,
748
$2,
841
$3,
069
$3,
265
$3,
380
$3,
469
$3,
587
$3,
637
$3,
660
$3,
662
$3,
486
$3,
597
$3,
609
$3,
681
$3,
871
$4,
031
$4,
292
$4,
359
$4,
286
$4,
364
$4,
568
$4,
793
$5,
189
Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE
Reve
nue
per F
TE
42Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Index (HECA)
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State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, Connecticut, Constant Dollars
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
2011 $-
$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000
$11
,375
$
12,1
63
$12
,693
$
12,8
62
$12
,748
$
11,9
38
$9,
493
$10
,966
$
10,9
35
$11
,612
$
11,7
37
$12
,411
$
12,6
88
$13
,190
$
12,6
64
$12
,462
$
11,7
15
$10
,897
$
10,8
17
$10
,881
$
11,1
31
$11
,544
$
10,8
67
$10
,874
$
10,2
04
$9,
016
$2,
896
$3,
144
$3,
190
$3,
555
$3,
865
$4,
426
$4,
992
$5,
155
$5,
183
$5,
608
$5,
794
$5,
786
$5,
802
$5,
642
$5,
950
$5,
911
$6,
210
$6,
862
$7,
162
$7,
413
$7,
344
$7,
502
$7,
642
$7,
569
$8,
025
$8,
168
Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE
Reve
nue
per F
TE
43Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)
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Distance Learning
U.S
.
CT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Undergraduates Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)
Perc
ent i
n A
ny D
ista
nce
Ed
44
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Distance Learning
U.S
.
CT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Graduate Students Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)
Perc
ent i
n A
ny D
ista
nce
Ed
45
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Closing Observations
• Fewer 18-24 year olds • Increased competition• Shift to serving older students• Downward pressure on revenues
• Historical patterns of success will not meet attainment goals (Obama Administration, Lumina)• Contextual Opportunities• College Readiness• Student Success• Affordability / sustainable financing model• Innovative models for learning & teaching• Equity in outcomes
46