connected vehicles - bvrla · carsharing is entering the holly grail of the rental market (e.g....
TRANSCRIPT
Facilitator Speakers • Jack Bergquist, IHS Automotive • Mark Andrews, Driver Connex • Nigel Trotman, Alphabet GB
• Toby Poston, Head of Communications, BVRLA
7
Connectivity methods Embedded
Connectivity and intelligence built-into vehicle
Tethered
Smartphone as modem, using cable, Bluetooth or Wi-Fi
Integrated
Smartphone apps and functions integrated into vehicle
9
From Ownership to Usership – A mega trend already in motion
SMART Brings Virtual to Car Rental
1.5 million additional Car Sharers in 2013
Integrated Mobility – New Partnerships
Autonomous Driving – Next Growth Wave
Franchise – The New Sharing Retail Model
Women Prefer Leasing
Rideshare & Taxi – Changing Game
10
New Exciting Carsharing Business Models – to Sustained Growth
Carsharing at Airports
Rebranding
Diversification
Franchising
Carsharing is entering the holly grail of the rental market (e.g. car2go, Zipcar, Drivenow, Flightcar)
Blurring of the lines between traditional car rental and carsharing sectors (e.g. Hertz 24/7)
Different business models to capture various usage groups (e.g: car2go Black – 2 way, intercity, B-class)
Traditional carsharing to develop franchise / licensing agreements (e.g. Zipcar - 15 cities in 2014)
11
Virtual Keys facilitated through smartphone
Telematics Services by OEMs
Virtual Kiosk to facilitate virtual Customer Care
Integrated EV charging solutions
Autonomous technology
Influence of New Technology - Smartphones is the key integrator in mobility services: Vehicle access - Consumer convenience – Process efficiency
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis,
Mobile Apps
12
Integrated Corporate Mobility – New Solutions & New Players
Corporate Mobility
OEMs Leasing
companies
Travel Agencies
Software Platform Providers
Fleet Mgt Providers
Public Transport
Integrated solution
providers
Other suppliers
Flexible Working
Solutions
Mobility Solution
Customisation
Future Present
Mobility Solution
Integration Platforms
Mobility allowance (not car allowance)
Future Telematics and It’s Fleet Impact Jack Bergquist [email protected]
How Does Telematics Help?
© 2014 IHS 15
• Know where you’re vehicles are. • Monitor driver behaviour. • Off-Board diagnostics. • Improve efficiency. • Real-time vehicle communications. • Specialist applications.
WHAT WE DO
We offer information, analytics and expertise to organizations around the world. They depend on our insights to help them make decisions about everything from day-to-day operations to long- term investments.
© 2014 IHS 016
ABOUT IHS
ANALYTICS
EXPERTISE
INFORMATION
WHAT WE DELIVER
Our solutions integrate research, analysis and information into an end-to-end problem-solving platform that enables strategic planners, engineers and operational leaders to make critical business decisions.
017
ABOUT IHS
© 2014 IHS
OPERATIONS
ENGINEERING
STRATEGIC PLANNING
75+% 165
WHO WE SERVE
Our clients include decision-makers at every level, across virtually every industry. Whether you represent a multinational enterprise or a municipal government, we can scale our offering to the scope of your needs.
© 2014 IHS 018
ABOUT IHS
Corporations and governments in
countries
Small businesses
to
Fortune 500
70+% of the
Fortune 1000 +
IHS serves:
of the Global Fortune 500
Infotainment Matters…
71% 73%
58%
71% 77% 78%
67%
76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jaguar Land Rover BMW Mercedes
"How important was each of the following in your decision to buy the particular model?"
Navigation system
Audio / video system
Strategic Vision New Vehicle Experience Survey 2013 (data relates to 2012-2014 model years)
MAJOR Trends in Automotive Technology
© 2014 IHS 20
IHS AUTOMOTIVE driven by POLK
• Much of the connected car innovation is now taking place outside of the OEM’s command and control. In some ways, OEM’s are becoming the supplier of a connected screen to external content eco-systems.
TREND
Some Recent QUOTES from Automotive Executives
© 2014 IHS 21
IHS AUTOMOTIVE driven by POLK
• “The solution for the connected car lies more in his hands, than in the automaker's hands.”
Jim Farley, EVP Global Marketing, Sales, & Service, Ford Motor Company, pointing to Tarun Bhatnagar, Director of Google Maps for Business
• “The real value of the connected car is outside the automaker.”
Jim Farley, EVP Global Marketing, Sales, & Service, Ford Motor Company
• “GM intends to cultivate a relationship with developers…and establish a community
where developers can join in exploring what’s possible with in-vehicle apps.” Phil Abram, Chief Infotainment Officer, General Motors
• “Technology to us is an enabler. Not an end game.” • “As long as you manage technology, it will be your friend.”
Marios Zenios, Vice President - UConnect Systems and Services, Chrysler Group LLC
The History of Automotive Infotainment
© 2014 IHS 23
IHS AUTOMOTIVE driven by POLK
1930 1952
1955 1969
1970 1985
1981 1995
2014
© 2014 IHS 24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Mar
ket S
hare
(%)
Date iOS (iPhone) Android Windows Blackberry Other OS
North American Market Share for Smartphone OS - 2013 to 2017
Source: IHS © 2013
North American Market Share for Smartphone OS - 2013 to 2017
Source: IHS © 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Mar
ket S
hare
(%)
Date iOS (iPhone) Android Windows Blackberry Other OS
Western European Market Share for Smartphone OS - 2013 to 2017
Source: IHS © 2013
Smart Phone Connectivity Forecasts
© 2014 IHS 26
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Uni
t Sal
es (K
)
Date CarPlay Google Projected Mode AHA MirrorLink Applink
Smart Phone Connectivity Forecasts - 2011 to 2020
Source: IHS © 2013 IHS
Smart Phone Connectivity Forecasts - 2011 to 2020
Source: IHS © 2013 IHS
Impact of Smart Phone Connectivity on Fleets
• CarPlay and Google Auto don’t leverage car data.
• Future editions of MirrorLink will allow limited data from the car.
• MHL and other connections allow no data integration.
• Smart phone offerings can be used for insurance, or location based telematics services.
• Could embedded apps with a tethered phone option could offer more
functionality
© 2014 IHS 27
Infotainment Infrastructure
© 2014 IHS 28
10-20 Apps OEM Chosen
Driver Chosen
Digital Media Input
Smartphone
Phone App Integration SW (ML
/ Apple / Google)
Apps Head Unit Software Based
Flexible Platform
Embedded Head Unit Apps
2012-2020
CE App Store with Auto Apps
Fast moving with lots of different apps – will need a standard to be truly effective
Embedded TCU
Key Takeaways for Smartphone Connectivity
© 2014 IHS 29
• Essential to offer a competitive system. Take Away
• Multiple standards will need to be supported. Take Away
• Let the CE sector focus on CE apps. Take Away
Embedded Telematics 2010 to 2020
© 2014 IHS 30
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Uni
t Sal
es (K
)
Date
Total Embedded Telematics Hybrid Telematics Sales (K) Embedded Telematics Sales (K)
Embedded Telematics Forecast - 2010 to 2020
Source: IHS © 2013 IHS
Embedded Telematics Forecast - 2010 to 2020
Source: IHS © 2013 IHS
© 2014 IHS 31
• Data will become an automaker’s greatest asset in cost savings, revenue opportunities, and customer relationship management as OEMs begin to harness Big Data in the Connected Car.
TREND
Big Data – The Key to an Ongoing Telematics Business Model?
© 2014 IHS 32
Current Status Future Expectations Volume & Velocity • 480TB collected in 2013 (total market)
• 15MB/sec (total market) • 11.1PB collected in 2020 (total market) • 350MB/second (total market)
Variety & Veracity • Diagnostics & Location • Data is not diverse enough to ensure full reliability – decisions are unsure
• Diagnostics, Location, UX/Features, ADAS/Autonomy • Data is commodity, reliability is high, but costly
Value • Value of Data: $245 million in 2013 • Telematics Revenue: $3.1 billion in 2013 • SW Warranty Cost: $12.3 billion in 2010
• Value of Data: $14.5 billion in 2020 • Telematics Revenue: $16 billion in 2020 • SW Warranty Cost: $100 billion in 2020
Challenges • Technology & Infrastructure is building out • Defining the strategy and Big Data roles • Building optimized architecture • Gaining end-user support, opt-in • Privacy: Who owns data, pipe, security?
• Millions of data points/sec, millions of cars • Roles defined clearly, partnerships formed • Big Data in the Car creates value, revenue • End-user opt-in in exchange for services • Ownership & analytics solutions in place
Big Data – The Key to an Ongoing Telematics Business Model?
Telematics Dongles
© 2014 IHS 33
• Allows full access to vehicle data. • Options with embedded connectivity, or Bluetooth. • No specialist fitting required. • Can’t always fit them conveniently. • Aren’t crash proof.
Top OEMs - BMW
© 2014 IHS 34
• Large colour display now standard in many markets. • Aim to make telematics standard by 2015 • Multiple connectivity options.
Top OEMs - Ford
© 2014 IHS 35
• Sync increasingly offered as standard. • Low price point. • Limited functionality.
Top OEMs – General Motors
© 2014 IHS 36
• Smart phone control of vehicle functions. • Embedded telematics will be standard. • Proven record of working with third parties in the USA.
Key Information Comments Platform Design Hardware platforms
Software platforms Application platforms
More standardization More system knowledge More program knowledge
Network Architecture
Bus connections Diagnostics connections
CAN, MOST, FlexRay May not be disabled
Attack Access Points
OBDII OBDII w/wireless module Telematics link(s) Bluetooth to Phone Wi-Fi network link(s)
Need physical access Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, cellular 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G, 4G, 4.5G Bluetooth 2.1, Smart Router & Direct
Minimal Security Features
Little auto risk previously Many security holes Low security knowledge Different from typical IT systems
Few access point previously In current systems Low priority and need earlier Embedded, IT & wireless
What Makes Future Infotainment Vulnerable to Security Threats?
Key Information Comments Car Information Access to infotainment ECUs
Access to ECU software Re-flash ECU software Access to car security system Security keys
Bridge to core auto ECUs Re-flash ECU software From crash to lethal weapon Results in vehicle theft Access to other equipment
Driving Information
Unauthorized location tracking Driving pattern information Unauthorized EDR access
Privacy & stalking issues Value for insurance Accident information
Personal Driver Info
GPS location history Speed vs. speed limit history Time of day history
Value to 3rd parties Value to 3rd parties Value to 3rd parties
What Is Feasible via Security Breaches?
Security Attack Goals Comments Property Theft Steal vehicle
Steal valuable auto components Via unauthorized access Via unauthorized access
Industrial Espionage
Steal OEM’s intellectual property Spy on OEM’s expertise
Software & hardware Intellectual property value
Damage Harm driver and passengers Harm auto OEM’s reputation
Accidentally or for-profit Accidentally or for-profit
Deception Circumvent HW-SW functionality Manipulate auto equipment Manipulate contracts & agreements
Speed, features, chip tuning Toll device, digital tachograph Lease, warranty
Privacy Location tracking Event data recorders
Stalking, VIP tracking Accident investigations
Auto Security Threat Overview
Key Information Comments Legal Risks Cost of lawsuits
Cost of negligence In 10s of millions of dollars Possibly 100s of millions of dollars
Business & Customer Loss
Loss of customer contracts Cost of upgrading software Future business loss
Possibly 100s of millions of dollars In 10s of millions of dollars Until new product is re-established
Reputation Impact
Most severe for auto OEMs Public likely to shun autos with any
software problems
From $100M to $1B+ Whether real or not Even after fixes have been done
Summary Successful software security attacks have the potential to be among the most costly auto recall events
Legal risk will be substantial Product update cost may be low to extreme
high Reputation impact will be severe
Auto Security Attacks: Financial Risks
2010 2015 2020
Embedded Security in Cars: EU-2003; US-2013; AP-2014
Emerging Software Solutions
Security Conference
Security Research and Hacking
USCD & U-WA In-Car Access
Backend & Layered Client SW Security
CAN Firewall & ECU SW Monitor
Defcon: Auto presentations-2010
Auto Industry Research
•Government: EVITA, NHTSA •Consortium: ACES, others likely
Hardware & Software Solution
IT Server & Layered Client HW-SW Security
USCD & U-WA Remote Access
Other Auto Cyber Hacking
Auto Incident Response Center
Testing New Auto Security SW & HW
Products
MCUs with Built-in HW Security
Auto Cyber Security Evolution
Jack Bergquist
Jack was bought into IHS from the former IMS Research Automotive team where he headed the infotainment and telematics research segment. During his time at IMS Research Jack authored several in depth industry reports, along with publishing and spearheading the use of consumer surveys within the team. Post IMS Research, Jack was responsible as the European infotainment expert for IHS Automotive’s Technology team, where he was also in charge of global forecasting for the core infotainment database. Whilst in these roles Jack had extensive experience presenting at a number of leading industry events, as well as presenting at all hands internal client, and industry body meetings. Jack has recently joined the EMEA Advisory team where he will continue to work on projects in the infotainment and wider automotive technology space. Methodological-Skills IT (MS Office, SPSS) Data Analysis Competitive Analysis Market Analysis Primary Research
© 2014 IHS 43
London, England
Consultant II to EMEA Advisory Services
• University of Sussex (UK) • Masters in Automotive
Engineering.
Project Experience Serveral Infotainment and ADAS projects Consumer surveys Infotainment market analysis Various cross team projects with mobile technology
©driverConnex 2014. All rights reserved.
the connected driver Mark Andrews | July 2014 | BVRLA Technology Conference
©driverConnex 2014. All rights reserved.
Many of the most innovative apps in 2014 will only be used by a few hundred or thousand people. That’s because they’ll be enterprise apps developed for employees to use.
©driverConnex 2014. All rights reserved.
driver apps within fleet - why?
SAVE TIME & MONEY
COMMUNICATION HOLISTIC MOBILITY
©driverConnex 2014. All rights reserved.
a simple communication flow?
MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS
MULTITUDE OF EMPLOYEES DRIVING FOR
BUSINESS
ON DEMAND EXPECTATIONS
INCREASED REPORTING
©driverConnex 2014. All rights reserved.
❶ mobility needs of my organisation? ❷ current means of addressing? ❸ future mobility solutions?
©driverConnex 2014. All rights reserved.
mobile device always on and always with you mobile interface is now expected pushing the boundaries of telematics (and fleet) mobile invites continuous innovation grey fleet represents an interesting area to start
key takeaways?
Challenges and Opportunities for Fleet Managers Nigel Trotman, Strategic Fleet Consultant, Alphabet and ACFO National Councillor
BVRLA Technology Congress, 1st July 2014