Conflict, Post election violence and ‘durable

solutions’ for IDPs.IDMC

Nuur.sheekh@nrc.ch

Profile of Violence

• Violence was initially spontaneous• Ethnic violence in Rift Valley• Reprisal attacks in Nakuru and Naivasha• Excessive use of force by the police• Displacement in RVP/Central/

Structural causes of violence

• Need for constitutional, legal and institutional reform

• Ethnically based patronage politics• Marked social inequality – demographic

and geographic

Immediate Causes of violence

• The ineptitude of the ECK• Blatant rigging of the election, specially the

presidential• Some countries ‘recognising’ Kibaki

immediately results announced• Opportunistic behaviour of local gangs and

militia

Cont…

• Failure of the security forces to contain violence

• Incendiary political statements by political leaders in both ODM and PNU

• The role of the media – in particular vernacular stations

• Polarisation and weakening of civil society • Weakness and capture of key institutions

The current situation

• Reduction in violence consolidated by the power-sharing agreement of 28th February

• A stalemate in forming a coalition government i.e. cabinet positions

• Most IDPs still in camps

Cont…

• Disconnect between peace building at a national level and local level

• Areas of ongoing violence – eg Mount Elgon, Molo, Laikipia

• IDPs fear return

Risks of renewed violenceShort – medium term triggers

• Failure of power-sharing • Potential prosecution of leading

politician or political assassination• Violence related to IDP return and

resettlement process

National and international Response

• GoK led response through the MoSP in which the NDOS coordinates and KRCS acts as the official implementing partner

• KNRC relies on its pool of volunteers• Capacity problems• UN activated cluster

Protection Concerns

• Lack of basic facilities in some camps e.g. lighting in Turbo camp

• Shelter and camp management• Rains• Disease• Ethnic animosity• SGBV

‘Durable Solutions’• National Reconciliation & Emergency Social & Economic

Recovery Strategy – To what extent is it in line with the ‘Framework for Durable Solutions’

• Much as the language is derived from the Principles, the spirit of the Strategy Paper is wanting:

• IDPs have not been consulted• Time frame of 100 days for return unrealistic• Issue of IDPs living within the host communities not

addressed• No information given to IDPs on situation in home areas