Conflict in Developing Societies

Lecture 12

The Nature of the Problem

Things are Not Always What They Seem.

Ethnic Conflict Is Not:“Conflict fuelled by age-old loyalties and cultural differences.”“Ethnic Groups lying in wait for one another nourishing age-old hatreds.”Irrational Violence

Ethnic Conflict Is Conflict Over Who Gets What

The State Controls Access to Resources.Group that Controls the State Controls Resources.Politics Revolves Around Competition Between Groups for Control of the State in Order to Gain Resources.When Groups are Defined Along Ethnic Lines, Competition is Between Ethnic Groups.

The War in Yugoslavia

Pre-War YugoslaviaEthnic Composition 8 Regions 3 religious groups

Government Structure De-Centralized Federal

Structure Federal Institutions

Represents Republics

Economy Command Style Relatively Prosperous

The Emergence of Conflict

De-Stabilizing Shocks in 1980s Oil and Debt Crises

Widening Income Disparities Between Northern Yugoslavia and Southern Yugoslavia.

Economic Crisis Creates the Need for Political and Economic Reform

Political and Economic Reform

Serbs Push for Greater Centralization Want to use state power to redistribute wealth

from Northern Republics to Southern Republics

Slovenes and Croats Want Greater De-Centralization Reform Provides an Opportunity for Reduction

of Government Intervention and “marketization” of the economy.

The Two Reform Agendas are Incompatible

Rising NationalismOrigins of Serb Nationalism Lie in Kosovo in Late 1980s Albanian Majority Pressures

for Greater Political Rights Serbs Respond with Military

Force

Milosovic uses Kosovo as opportunity, seizes power in Serbia.Uses Nationalism to Mobilize popular support for his rule and his goals.

Slobodan Milosovic

Milosovic Extends His Power

Exploiting Nationalism, Milosovic Installs “Puppet Leaders” in Vojvodina, Montenegro, Kosovo.Captures Four of the Eight Votes in the Collective Presidency.Serbia Likely to Prevail in Wider Struggle Over Political and Economic Reform.

The Road To War: Slovenia

Fall of 1989, Slovenia Prepares for Independence

Passes Constitutional Amendments that Deny Federal Government Authority

Milosovic Severs Economic Relations with Slovenia

December 1990 Referendum; 88% Vote for Independence.

Slovenia Secedes, June 1991

What Should Serbia Do?

Serbia Begins to Redraw Boundaries to Incorporate All Serbs Living in Yugoslavia into Greater Serbia.

Direct Challenge to Croatia and Bosnia, Each of Which have Large Serbian Population.

Security Dilemma Emerges

War Spreads to Croatia, June 1991 – January 1992 UN Peacekeepers Enter

Bosnia

Bosnia is Microcosm of Yugoslavia

October 1991, Croats and Muslims Vote to Make Bosnia Independent

Bosnian Serbs Leave Bosnian Parliament, Establish Serb Autonomous Region

Bosnian War Begins in April 1992, Ends in 1995.

UN Peacekeepers Inserted.

Ethnic Conflict?

War in Former Yugoslavia Was Not “Irrational Violence” Fuelled by Ancient Hatreds.Political Conflict Over Who Gets What Emerged From Process of Political and Economic Reform.Leadership Turns to Nationalism to Mobilize Public to Support their Goals.Rising Nationalism Creates a Security Dilemma Situation in Which No One Feels Secure.

“Ethnic Conflict” in Rwanda

Two Groups—Hutus and Tutsis. Historically: Tutsis were Herdsman Hutus were Cultivators

Group Identity Acquires Economic and Class Meaning Cows More Valuable

Asset, thus Tutsis are Wealthier than Hutus

Tutsis Rule Rwanda in 19th Century; Favored By Colonial Powers For Political, Military, and Administrative Positions.

(Dem Rep. Congo)

Hutu Revolution

During Late 1950s Hutus Begin to Mobilize to Take Power from Tutsis (De-colonization)First “Ethnic” Violence Takes Place in 1959, as Hutus Begin to Kill Tutsis.By October 1960, Hutu Revolution Successful.Begin to Oppress Tutsis Just as Tutsis Had Oppressed Hutus.Large Number of Tutsis Flee Country.

The 1980s and 1990sDeteriorating Economic Conditions Collapse of Coffee Prices IMF Stabilization Package Extremely High Population Density

The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Attacks Rwanda in October 1990. Composed of Tutsi Refugees Living in Uganda

Hutu Gov’t Uses War as Justification to: Expand the Military—From 5,000 to 40,000. Mobilize Population for Sacrifices Needed to Defend

Regime.

The Arusha Peace Accord

August 4, 1993: RPF and the Rwandan Government Sign a Peace Accord. Blueprint for Power Sharing Arrangement Among

the Hutu Regime, Internal Opposition Parties, and the RPF.

This Shift Toward “Democracy” Generated Opposition Among the Extremists Within the Ruling Hutu Government.Extremists Believe that President Had Been Too Eager to Negotiate Peace and Had Compromised Too Much in Doing So.

April – July 1994The Genocide Was Based on Months of Preparation by the Hutu Government—Using Hutu Nationalism to Mobilize Public Support.April 6, 1994, the Rwandan President Is Assassinated (most Likely By Extremist Members of His Own Government).Assassination Is Trigger for Violence. Eliminate Hutu Opposition Leaders Eliminate Tutsis

800,000 People Killed in 100 Days (Of a Total Population of 6 Million).

Ethnic Conflict?

Poverty and Further Deterioration of Economic Conditions.

Use of State to Enhance Position of Your Group and Deny Others Equal Opportunities.

War Over Control of Government.

Government Mobilization of Anti-Tutsi Sentiment in Conjunction with the Broader Objectives Being Pursued through War.

The Logic of War in the Liberal Vision

Deteriorating Economic ConditionsZero-Sum Politics No Democratic Tradition of Compromise and

Power Sharing Politics Becomes a Winner Take All Affair

Conflict in Environment of Economic Deprivation Often Produces Civil War.The Absence of Prosperity/Economic Interdependence and of Democracy Creates a Climate in Which War Can Flourish.