Insights into strategies & measures to engage with the community

Lew ShortGroup Manager Community Resilience

NSW Lessons Learnt from Victoria & Challenges…

• Plain language, get away from jargon & make information accessible

• Speed of change and expectations• Challenge of getting information in and

making it into intelligence• Is it enough that people discuss what they will

do, do they need to have a written plan• Can community make decisions in times of

stress

Are We Barking up the Wrong Tree?

• My trip to Melbourne for the weekend of 7th Feb 2009

• “We just know what to do”• “People like to be told what to do”• “What I need to do is not clear”

Action to trigger leavingHigh Risk

(n=388)%

Low Risk(n=372)

%

Recent Fire(n=346)

%

No Recent Fire

(n=414)%

NETT Advised 42 30 32 40

When told to leave by Fire Service 32 23 23 31

When advised on radio 10 7 8 8

When advised to leave by any authority 3 2 2 3

When the Police \ SES tell me to leave 2 1 1 2

When telephoned 1 2 1 2

As soon as I heard a warning 2 2 2 1

NETT Visible fire/smoke 25 14 20 20

When I see smoke 16 10 16 11

When I can see fire 6 3 3 7

If I saw other houses burning 2 0 1 2

If there was an ember attack, I would leave 1 1 1 1

If it was on \ coming over the hill 1 1 1 1

NETT Depends on Conditions 6 11 11 7

It would depend on the wind \ atmospheric conditions 3 5 5 3

It would depend on the direction of the wind &our available exits 2 3 3 2

I would judge it at the time \ make my decision then 1 2 1 1

When I’m sure it’s coming my way 0 1 1 0

Base: Those respondents who would leave home if threatened (n=760)Q15: When would you plan to leave?

Action the would trigger leavingHigh Risk

(n=388)%

Low Risk(n=372)

%

Recent Fire(n=346)

%

No Recent Fire (n=414)

%

NETT Close by 6 16 13 10

If it comes close 3 7 6 4

Before it got too close \ while there is enough time 2 6 5 3

When it comes within a predetermined distance eg 500metres

1 3 2 2

Other

As early as possible \ immediately 8 7 7 8

If we thought our lives were in danger \ felt threatened 6 8 6 7

If the fire became out of control 3 1 2 2

When I knew there was nothing more to do to fight it \ hopeless

1 3 3 2

When neighbours leave 2 2 1 2

At the last minute 1 2 1 2

When Fire Danger Rating reaches Severe 2 1 1 2

When the house was threatened 1 2 2 1

When Fire Danger Rating reaches Catastrophic 1 1 0 2

When Fire Danger Rating reaches Extreme 1 1 1 1

When the fire service arrive 1 1 0 1

Don’t know 6 7 8 6

Base: Those respondents who would leave home if threatened (n=760)Q15. When would you plan to leave?

Base: All respondents (n=1,200)Q3. Generally speaking, during the Spring and Summer months, how high would you say the risk from bushfires is to your home? Would you say it is a:

High Risk (n=600)

Low Risk (n=600) Recent Fire (n=577)

No Recent Fire (n=623)

7 5 5 7

126 6

11

16

12 1414

29

24 2626

23

3129

24

1423 20 17

Extremely High Very high High Moderate Low Not a threat

Perceived Risk

7

In the Event of a Bushfire• Roughly one half of respondents indicated they

would leave. • For many the trigger to leave their home was

being advised by the RFS, SES, Police or other authority.

• 80% of people will wait and see• Dependency on information

Some NSW Fire Seasons

2002/03 2006/07 2009/10

Number of bush fires statewide 459 2,871 4,104

Duration of Bush Fire Emergencies (days)

151 days 113 days 118 days

Area Burnt (ha) 1,465,000 438,218 366,159

Residential Homes destroyed 86 8 24

Lim

it to

dire

ct a

ttac

k

Para

llel a

ttac

k

Indi

rect

att

ack

Def

ensi

ve

Lim

it to

saf

e op

erati

on o

f he

licop

ters

(~50

km/h

)

Potential:• Loss of radio & telco towers• Loss of situational awareness

Capacity of community to receive and act on triggers

Focus on suppression

Focus on life safety

Time0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Community Interest

Interest

The

big

fires

fires

on

the

new

s

fires

on

the

new

s, s

mok

e

Time0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Community Interest

Interest

Time0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Community Interest

Interest

Time0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Community Interest

Interest

How do we engage during crisis?

• What messages do we want people to hear? • More importantly… How do we want them to Act?

Broadcast to Directive?

• Tipping point• Challenges associated with this

• Alerts and SMS• RSS feeds• Social media• Planning and building

controls• Risk planning

• property owners will not voluntarily include appropriate levels of bushfire protection and survival measures in new buildings in bushfire prone areas.

• Insufficient information, “bounded rationality” and poor perception of risk

Market Failures

Therefore, Government intervention is

justified on the grounds that it could

deliver a more efficient outcome for

society.”

RFS Assessed Development Applications since Aug 2002

21

DA Type Total

State Significant Development 1,024

Planning Instruments 173

Subdivision and Special Fire Protection 18,948

Residential Infill 52,958

Total 73,103

22

Page 24 11/04/2023

Leave Early Option – Batemans Bay (10km)

Leave Early Option – Moruya (25km)

Sample Bay Bush Fire Survival Map

Warning and Product Information

The Bush Fire Survival Map

Neighbourhood Safer Places

• Place of last resort

• 793 NSPs identified for 111 local

government areas across the State.

• Form a back up option as part of Bush Fire

Survival Plan.

Social Media• Socially-enabled

• Mobile-friendly

• On Demand

• Track Twitter, social networks, blogs, discussion boards,

content sites

• Make content and data available for use by others

Lew ShortGroup Manager Community Resilience NSW Rural Fire Service02-8741 5454

Lew.short@rfs.nsw.gov.au

Lew Short Lewshort14http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort

Ta much