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2012 Rocky Mountain Region WFDSS RefresherFor Agency Administrators

April 25, 2012

Webinar Objectives

• Provide Update on Policy Changes• Provide Update on Regional Forester Expectations related to

Wildfire Decisions • Discuss Risk Based Approaches• Discuss Decision Process and Articulating Leaders Intent

Webinar Rules of Behavior

• Make sure your phone is on mute unless asking a question or responding to a question.

• Utilize either the “Raise Hand” to ask a question via phone or submit your question via the question text box• Please wait until you are recognized

before asking your question via phone• Participate in the polls.

Agenda•Review Policy Updates and 2012 Expectations – Paul Langowski

•Pre-Season Set up– Brenda Wilmore•Decision Process – Brenda Wilmore•Relative Risk and Organizational Needs Assessment –Paul Langowski and Kelly Kane

•The Decision – Paul Crespin•Periodic Assessment•Loose Ends – Paul Langowski •Webinar Wrap-up

Policy and Expectations

Risk Management

Sound risk management is a foundation for all fire management activities, including prescribed fire. Risks and uncertainties relating to fire management activities must be understood, analyzed, and communicated. (USDA and DOI, 2009)

Wildland Fire Management Policy Framework

EventIgnition Source

Strategic Objectives1

Strategies2 & Tactics Evaluation

Fire Type

Unplanned

Planned

Wildfire

Prescribed Fire

Human

Natural

Management

Converted Prescribed Fire

Escaped Prescribed Fire

Protection

Resource Benefits

Direction selected & managing resources to achieve incident objectives

Compare outcomes with objectives

Resources

1 Strategic Objectives are those define in an approved Land/Resource or Fire Management Plan having gone through the NEPA process.2 Strategies are Monitor, Confine, Point / Zone Protection, Suppression* or any combination of these. *Synonymous with Full Perimeter Containment and Control

2012 Red Book -USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9)

Must use WFDSS Approve and Publish Decisions on all fires

that exceed initial attack or include a resource management objectives

2012 Red Book -USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9)

Agency Administrators Ensure that all personnel working on

Forest Service jurisdiction wildfires clearly understand direction

Approve and publish Decisions and issue delegations to the IC according to delegated authority

2012 Red Book -USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9)

2012 Red Book -USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9)

Critical long duration wildfire oversight roles include ensuring that: • Up-to-date Published decisions are

completed and documented in WFDSS. • Hazards are identified and risk

assessments are incorporated into Published Decisions.

2012 Red Book - WFDSS (11-12 to 11-14)

• WFDDS used for decision support• Must have published Decision in WFDSS• Level of documentation commensurate to:

• the incident duration, • spread potential, • cost, • or relative risk.

2012 Red Book - WFDSS (11-12 to 11-14)

• Initial Decisions• Must be published within 24 hours after

determination that a published decision is needed or

• Within 24 hours of requesting an IMT

2012 Red Book - WFDSS (11-12 to 11-14)

• New Decisions• Progressive Decision Making

• depending on complexity and need for supporting analysis 2-7 days

2012 Red Book – Managing the Incident (11-15 to 11-16)

• Provide IMT an approved and certified WFDSS.

• Ensure that significant decisions related to strategy and costs are included in WFDSS.

• Coordinate on multi-jurisdiction fires to issue a joint delegation of authority and single published WFDSS decision

2012 Red Book – Incident Business Management (11-26)

• Cost Management• minimize costs without compromising

safety• Indirect containment strategies

2012 National Mobilization Guide

• Planning Level Considerations• PL 4

• Consult with GMAC required• Consideration of resource

commitments and availability to implement strategy

2012 National Mobilization Guide

• Planning Level Considerations• PL 5

• Consult with GMAC and NMAC required representative

• Consideration of resource commitments and availability to implement strategy

2012 Leaders Intent Understand Current Conditions Base Decisions/strategy selection on the

here and now not on the past Conduct appropriate analysis and articulate

strong rationale The conversation starts with risk and

firefighter and public safety

Pre –Season Setup

Decision Process

Risk Management and Risk Assessment

STRATEGIC

More time More data to analyzeMore ComplexityLarger Influence

OPERATIONAL

Moderate timeLess ComplexitySmaller Influence

REAL TIME

Limited TimeData ConstrainedLimited ComplexityLimited Influence

The levels of complexity are displayed to assist in understanding the kinds ofdecisions expected. The decision is not tied to an organizational level and each of these type decisions are made at all organizational levels. The difference lies in theamount of time available to make the decision and the amount and kinds of data

available to analyze.

Risk Decision LevelsRISK D

ECISION

Risk Management and Risk Assessment Sound, risk-informed decision making

requires pre-season planning including Relationship building “Pre-attack” planning Assess conditions and opportunities

Risk Management and Risk Assessment Five Phases of Risk-Informed Decision Process

SITUATION ASSESSMENT: Gather Information and Assess Information

SITUATION ANALYSIS : Analyze to Characterize potential risks and opportunities.

SITUATION ANALYSIS - Develop controls to address identified risks and opportunities

PLAN OF ACTION and DECISION: Make a decision and articulate a ‘course of action’ to implement the decision

PERIODIC ASSESSMENT: Periodically re-assess the situation, and revise the decision and course of action as needed.

Risk Management and Risk Assessment SITUATION ANALYSIS : Analyze to Characterize

potential risks and opportunities. Conduct a Risk Assessment:

Translating fire potential into an assessments of opportunities and risks: Understanding in general what opportunities and probabilities for taking advantage of the fire, opportunities and probabilities to mitigate fire threats, and how difficult are each are to achieve.

Risk Management and Risk Assessment SITUATION ANALYSIS - Develop controls

to address identified risks and opportunities Risk management is the mitigation of the

hazards, threats, and causes identified by the risk assessment and implementation of actions to improve outcomes and minimize negative consequences.

Relative Risk Assessment

Relative Risk

 The relative risk assessment chart uses three risk components:

Values Hazard Probability

What are your local break points?

Relative RiskValues Values are those ecologic, social, and

economic resources that could be lost or damaged because of a fire.

Relative RiskHazards

The hazard in wildland fire is composed of the following:

Departure from historic conditions ability of the fire to spread and circulate intensity and severity the fire may present spatial extent of the fire (size)

Relative RiskProbability

Probability refers to the likelihood of a fire becoming an active event with potential to adversely affect values.

Relative Risk Localized Criteria

Organizational Needs Assessment

The Decision

Periodic Assessment

Loose Ends

Loose Ends Multi-jurisdiction Fires Communication between IMT and Adjoining

Land Owners Decision Tips Decision Support Group WFDSS Lite

Rocky Mountain Geographic Editors

Agency Name Number

USFS Paul Langowski 303-275-5307

USFS Brenda Wilmore 970-328-5891

CO/WY BLM Gwenan Poirier 303-239-3689

NPS Linda Kerr 303-969-2883

USFWS Rich Sterry 303-236-8124-

BIA Reeve Armstrong 208-387-5373

BIA John Barborinas 970 903-3499

Contacts/Support:

Model 9930 BlackBerrySet-Up Instructions for WFDSS Lite Application

1. From the Home screen, select Options (the wrench icon)> Security Option> Advanced Security Options>TLS

2. Scroll down to Proxy TLS, make sure the Enabled box below Proxy TLS is UNCHECKED

3. Click the Blackberry dot-icon to get the menu and select save

Questions?

Webinar Wrap-up

“Fire is fire no matter what objective(s) you’re implementing. Always give fire the benefit of the doubt. It

will do what you don’t think it will do sooner than you think and at the most inopportune time. Fire can have a

tendency to humble you and it should!”