DIME – FRAGILE STATESDUBAI, MAY 31 – JUNE 4

Concept note for Pakistan’s Water Sector StrategyAsjad Imtiaz Ali, Prject Director, Water Sector Capacity Building, Ministry of Water and PowerZahoor Ahmad Barlas, Joint Secreatry, Ministry of Water and PowerArianna Legovini, Head, Development Impact Evaluation Initiative

Project description Within the Water Sector Capacity Building

Project, the Gov. of Pakistan is designing an improved water resources management framework to address: Inefficient delivery system and use of water Low pricing and inadequate collection Lack of maintenance of the entire irrigation system

▪ 57,000 km of canals and affiliated structures! Projected decline in water availability from existing

1100 to 800 cum/person/year due to population growth,climate change and reduced storage capacity

To transform this framework, GoP plans to conduct a series of pilot tests to learn what combination of interventions can improve water management at water association level

Research questions

1. What is the effect of providing water user associations (WUAs) with information in the form of a report card on the WUA performance on current water management ?

2. What is the effect of facilitating a participatory process to improve water management performance at WUA level additional to the provision of information?

3. What is the effect of rewarding WUAs for performance improvements?

Indicators Water-intensity of agriculture

Agricultural output per unit of water (agricultural productivity) WUAs proportion of sprinkler and drip irrigation (technology

adoption) Efficient and equitable water use

Water use per capita per year Water use per acre per year Ratio of wateravailability per acre downstream to upstream Water price for sustainable water resources Disputes and complaints

Financial sustainability measures Recover maintenance costs Collection rates

Water infrastructures’ efficiency Ratio of existing to rated water capacity

Identification strategyPilot in Central Punjab/SindhRandom assignment of water user

associations (WUAs) to one control and three treatments:a. Provision of information to WUA on

current performance indicators for the WUA and relative to average WUA performance (in the rest of the sample) (information only)

b. (a) plus facilitation of WUA participatory process for dissemination of information and development & implementation of a plan for efficient water management (information plus facilitation)

Cont. Identification strategyc. Provision of performance-based

public recognition incentives (Award for Best Performer)

(c) will be assigned randomly to 50% of the information only WUAs arm and 50% of the information plus facilitation WUAs arm of the study

Arms of the studyWUA assignment

Information

(report cards) (a)

Information + Facilitation (b)

Control

No rewards 20 20 40

Performance- based Rewards

20 20

Total 40 40 40

SampleThe sampling unit is the WUAFarms in the WUA will be stratified

based on location along the tertiary canal

The exact number of WUAs per arm of the study will be determined through power calculations

Two representative areas, one each in Punjab and Sindh provinces (approx. 2,500 acres each) will be selected for the study

120 villages (approx. 2,400 households)

DataMIS Irrigation provincial departments

Determination of data needs Quality/needs assessment of existing

administrative data Proposals for MIS improvements

Survey data Farm level (household) Water subsystem level

Timeline Follow up meeting/finalize CN with Ousmane Dione

(TTL), Mushfiq Mubarak (Yale), Florence Kondylis (DIME), Asjad Imtiaz Ali, PD, WCAP, Zahoor Ahmad Barlas, Ministry of Water and Power, Arianna Legovini (DIME), John Briscoe (Harvard)—mid-July 2010

Securing of finances July-Sept 2010 Preparatory activities July-Sept 2010 Baseline Nov-Dec 2010 MIS data analysis Feb 2011 Baseline data analysis + preparation of score cards

March 2011 Intervention roll-out (dissemination and facilitation in

80 treatment WUAs) Apr-Jun 2011 Follow up Nov-Dec 2011 IE analysis May-June 2012

Impact evaluation team

Project coordinators (WCAP & DIME)Consultants/ Experts from private

sectorExisting WCAP Staff + Required Staff

recruited by the projectDIME Experts/ regular staff(part-

time)Seconded staff of Provincial Irrigation

Departments/ Social Welfare Departments

Estimated budget Project coordinators ($40,000) Consultants (2 Man Months, $25,000) Baseline Survey ($ 208,000) Follow up Survey ($ 208,000) DIME research team ($150,000) MIS assessment/improvements proposal

($30,000)

Intervention costs in 80 treatment WUA ($80,000) Preparation of “score cards” dissemination to the WUA, facilitation of participatory process