Complexity and Development in Small Island Developing States

Duncan Green Oxfam GB

Singapore, April 2014

‘I think the next century will be the century of complexity’Professor Stephen Hawking, 2000

This is what complexity looks like

Simple v Complicated v Complex

What’s this got to do with Planning?

Some systems are more or less linear

But many are not

And SIDS are special (see Max Everest-Phillips paper) More vulnerable to shocks

– commodity prices – climate – lower diversity– Import dependence esp food

Short on skilled specialists Premium on leadership Denser networks (internally)

“…Small island developing States (SIDS) have their own peculiar

vulnerabilities and characteristics, so that the difficulties they face in the

pursuit of sustainable development are particularly severe and complex….”

UN Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform

Planning pros and cons

For Allocating $ Building common

goals and approaches

Evaluating performance against the plan

Accountability

Against Missing new

windows of opportunity

Weakens feedback loops to outside world

Delusions of control Leads to lying

An Adaptive Approach combines planning and improvisation Plan for capacity, improvise for response Enabling Environment Sensing Responding

Enabling Environment

Equip people to experiment and respond to events– Rights– Access to Information

Political Leadership– Compelling narrative– Norms and moral messaging– Steering through shocks

Building Resilience– Tackling ‘risk dumping’ and inequality– ‘Sowing diversity’

Sensing

Fast feedback– Consultative systems– Sentinel sites and Prairie Dogs

Positive Deviance– What good stuff is already happening?

Failing forwards Results for grown-ups (counting what

counts; put more L in your MEL)

Responding

Shocks as opportunities (red button system) Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation Hybrids and best fit, not cookie cutters Venture Capitalist multiple start-ups (e.g.

via trust funds) No regrets solutions

Trial and error and Rules of Thumb, not Best Practice and Analysis Paralysis

What Kinds of People are Needed?

‘We should move from being people who know the answers to people who know what questions to ask.’– Ben Ramalingam

Embeddedness as a virtue Beyond specialists (surfers and networkers)

– Convene others (including off-island)– Crowd sourcing– Encourage experimentation, learning and

adaptation

Who else is thinking along these lines? Thinking and Working Politically coalition USAID

– ‘10 Principles for Engaging Local Systems’ DFID

– Testing complexity tools in Nigeria and DRC Harvard Kennedy School

– Developing ‘Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation’ approaches

And Oxfam? ‘How Change Happens’ = core competency Understanding the system before you

intervene (power analysis, stakeholder mapping, history)

Increased focus on influencing, innovation and knowledge

Shocks as opportunities Resilience in climate change adaptation and

humanitarian response Results agenda: counting what counts

And Oxfam?Understand the system: Power

analysis

How might Change Happen?

Intervention: Select change

strategies

Implement, evaluate and

adapt

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