comparing political activism worldwide democratic phoenix
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Comparing Political Activism Worldwide Democratic Phoenix. Structure. Theoretical overview: Civic decline or evolution in political activism? Evidence Trends in party membership & civic activism Rise of protest and cause-oriented politics Generational patterns of activism Conclusions - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Structure
I. Theoretical overview: • Civic decline or evolution in political activism?
II. Evidence 1. Trends in party membership & civic activism 2. Rise of protest and cause-oriented politics3. Generational patterns of activism
III. Conclusions • Causes & consequences of trends?
Democratic Phoenix (Cambridge University Press August 2002)
Introduction: – 1. The Rise and Fall of Political Activism?– 2. Theories of Political Activism
I. The Puzzle of Electoral Turnout– 3. Mapping Turnout – 4. Do Institutions Matter?– 5. Who Votes?
II: Political Parties– 6. Mapping Party Activism– 7. Who Joins?
III: Civic Activism– 8. Social Capital & Civic Society– 9. Traditional Mobilizing Agencies: Trade Unions & Churches– 10. New Social Movements, the Internet & Protest Politics
Conclusions:
– 11. Conclusions: From Loyalties to Choice?
The civic decline thesis
Half-empty ballot box? (Wattenberg)Desertion of party members? (Dalton, Mair)Partisan dealignment? Hemorrhaging union rolls?Emptying church pews?Anemic voluntary organizations? (Putnam)Rising political cynicism? (Nye et al)
Model of changeFigure 1: Typology of the evolution of political action
REPERTOIRES
Citizen-oriented
repertoires, including
voting, party work and
contact activity
Cause-oriented
repertoires, including
consumer politics,
demonstrations and
petitions
Traditional voluntary
associations, including
churches, unions and
political parties
Older generation
AG
EN
CIE
S
New social movements
and advocacy
networks, including
environmental and
humanitarian
organizations
Younger generation
If participation is changing…
Causes?– Long-term processes of societal modernization?
• Growing educational & civic skills• Decline of deferential loyalty to hierarchical institutions• Gradual ‘bottom up’ generational shift in ‘critical citizens’
– Result of changing institutions of representative democracy?• ‘Top down’ explanations• Globalization, decentralization & role of nation state• Growth of cross-cutting issues not accommodated by parties• Rational response to context of choices and channels of influence
If participation is changing…
Consequences?1. Social inequality?
» Greater civic skills, more demanding acts?» Who participates by class, income, education, gender, ethnicity
2. Quality of deliberative democracy» F-to-f interaction, on-going co-operation, social trust?» Rise of more demanding citizens?
3. For governance?» Stability and violence?» Fragmentation of policy process?
Trends official party membersTable 6.1 Phoenix
Party membership as a % of the electorate,
late-1990s
% Change (i)Change in Numbers
of Members
Change in Numbers as Percentage of
Original Membership
France 1978-19991.6
- 3.48 - 1,122,128 - 64.59
Italy 1980-19984.0
- 5.61 - 2,091,887 - 51.54
US 1980-19981.9
- 2.20 - 853,156 - 50.39
Norway 1980-19977.3
- 8.04 - 218,891 - 47.49
Czech Rep 1993-19993.9
- 3.10 - 225,200 - 41.32
Finland 1980-19989.6
- 6.09 - 206,646 - 34.03
Netherlands 1980-20002.5
- 1.78 - 136,459 - 31.67
Austria 1980-199917.7
- 10.82 - 446,209 - 30.21
Switzerland 1977-19976.4
- 4.28 - 118,800 - 28.85
Sweden 1980-19985.5
- 2.87 - 142,533 - 28.05
Denmark 1980-19985.2
- 2.16 - 70,385 - 25.52
Ireland 1980-19983.1
- 1.86 - 27,856 - 24.47
Belgium 1980-19996.5
- 2.42 - 136,382 - 22.10
Germany 1980-19992.9
- 1.59 - 174,967 - 8.95
Hungary 1990-19992.1
+ 0.04 + 8,300 + 5.02
Portugal 1980-20003.9
- 0.29 + 50,381 + 17.01
Slovakia 1994-20004.1
+ 0.82 + 37,777 + 29.63
Greece 1980-19986.8
+ 3.58 + 375,000 + 166.67
Spain 1980-20003.4
+ 2.22 + 808,705 + 250.73
ALL ABOVE
Party membership
Decline in many Western nationsBroader erosion of partisanshipYet substantial cross-national variations Does erosion of membership matter?– For party in government?– For party finance and staff? – For party or campaign activism?
Campaign Activism, US 1952-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Meeting Party Work Button Money
US Turnout
US Turnout: 59.5% in 2000, 63.8% in 2004 (Vote/VAP) Source: US Census Bureau www.census.gov
US Turnout 1932-2000(Presidential Vote/ VAP)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Source: U.S.Census Bureau 1932-1996.
%
Trends in Gross Union DensitySource: Bernhard Ebbinghaus and Jelle Visser. 2000. Trade Unions in Western Europe since 1945. London: Macmillan. CD-Rom.
Note: Net density I (Total union membership as a share of the gainfully employed wage and salary earners.)
20
40
60
80
R-Square = 0.31
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland
France Germany Italy Neth
Norway Switz UK
R-Square = 0.67
R-Square = 0.43R-Square = 0.89
20
40
60
80
R-Square = 0.72
R-Square = 0.41
R-Square = 0.13
R-Square = 0.77
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
20
40
60
80
R-Square = 0.53
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
R-Square = 0.93
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
R-Square = 0.02
Union Density, 1995
Belarus Sweden
Azerbaijan Russian Federation
Iceland Denmark
Finland Malta
China Cyprus
Hungary Slovakia
Norway Bulgaria
Romania Luxembourg
Belgium Austria Czech Republic Ireland
Brazil Canada Mexico Italy
Egypt Germany
Australia Taiwan
Poland Estonia United Kingdom Ghana Mauritius Argentina Guyana
Nicaragua New Zealand Israel Philippines
Namibia Turkey Senegal Netherlands South Africa
Switzerland Swaziland Portugal J apan
Tanzania Dominican Republic Nigeria Cape Verde Kenya
Bolivia Chile Greece
Venezuela Cameroon Panama Canal Zone Zimbabwe Mali Singapore Costa Rica Cote D'Ivoire United States Zambia
Uruguay Botswana Spain
Ecuador Tunisia Paraguay Korea, Republic Of
Peru El Salvador Eritrea Colombia
France Pakistan India
Morocco Honduras Guatemala Bangladesh Ethiopia Uganda
Thailand Mauritania Indonesia Guinea Gabon
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Union Density:
Table 9.1
Interpretation
No simple decline in union membership across Western EuropeSubstantial cross-national variations worldwideInstitutional explanations not secular trends
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Belgium Den France GB
Germany Greece Ire Italy
Lux Neth NI Portugal
Spain
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
1970 1980 1990
year
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Secularization Trends% Church attendance Eurobarometer 1970-2000
Interpretation?
Evidence of secularization in W.EuropeDevelopment is linked to secularizationPolitical implications?
Experience of Political Activism Source: WVS mid-1990s
% ‘Have done’ All
Discuss politics 70.0
Voting turnout 64.5
Civic activism 62.4
Signed a petition * 28.5
Attended demonstrations* 15.7
Joined in boycott * 8.9
Active union member 5.4
Joined unofficial strike * 5.0
Active party member 4.6
Occupied buildings * 1.6
Rise of Protest Politics% ‘Have done’ in 8 postindustrial societies: WVS
Mid-1970s 1980s 1990 mid-1990s
Signed petition 32 46 54 60
Demonstrated 9 14 18 17
Consumer Boycott 5 8 11 15
Unofficial Strike 2 3 4 4
Occupied buildings 1 2 2 2
Source: World Values Surveys
Age differences?
Age differences?– If so three possible causes:
• Generational effects, • Period effects, and • Lifecycle effects.
European Social Survey 200215 European nations (22)
Type of acts
Citizen-oriented repertoires– Voted– Contacted a politician or official– Donated money to political organization– Party member– Worked for a political party
Cause-oriented repertoires– Bought products for political reasons– Signed a petition– Boycotted certain products – Lawfully demonstrated– Took part in illegal protest
Age profile of activists
All Younger(i)
Middle-Aged (ii)
Older(iii)
Age Gap(i-iii)
18-29 30-59 60+
Citizen-oriented repertoires
Voted 72 50 79 84 -34
Contacted a politician or official 16 12 19 14 -2
Donated money to political organization 8 7 9 8 -1
Party member 6 3 6 8 -4
Worked for a political party 5 4 5 5 -1
Cause-oriented repertoires
Bought products for political reasons 24 24 28 17 7
Signed a petition 22 23 24 15 8
Boycotted certain products 15 14 17 11 3
Lawfully demonstrated 6 9 6 3 6
Took part in illegal protest 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.8
Citizen-oriented acts
Cases weighted by DWEIGHT
Cohort
1980-1985
1970-1979
1960-1969
1950-1959
1940-1949
1930-1939
1920-1929
Me
an
Citiz
en
-ori
en
ted
activis
m s
ca
le
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
Major Region
Nordic Europe
Northern Europe
Mediterranean Europe
Postcommunist Europe
0.5
1.0
1.5
Czech Republic Finland Greece Hungary
Ireland Israel Netherlands Norway
Poland Portugal Slovenia Spain
Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Cohort
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Cohort2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Cohort
Citizen-oriented acts by cohort
Mean age of activists
40 40
44 44 4446
47 4748
50
52
35
40
45
50
55
Demonstra
ted
Protes
ted ille
gally
Boyco
tted p
roduc
ts
Bough
t pro
ducts
Signed
a pe
tition
ALL R
espo
ndents
Contacte
d a po
liticia
n
Donated
mon
ey
Worke
d for
party
Voted
Party m
embe
r
Note: Whether the respondent did these acts during the previous 12-monthsSource: The European Social Survey, 2002
Cause–oriented acts
Cases weighted by DWEIGHT
Cohort
1980-1985
1970-1979
1960-1969
1950-1959
1940-1949
1930-1939
1920-1929
Me
an
Ca
use
-ori
en
ted
act
ivis
m s
cale
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
0.0
Major Region
Nordic Europe
Northern Europe
Mediterranean Europe
Postcommunist Europe
Cause-oriented acts by cohort
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ca
use
-ori
ente
d a
ct
Czech Republic Finland Greece Hungary
Ireland Israel Netherlands Norway
Poland Portugal Slovenia Spain
Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ca
use
-ori
ente
d a
ct
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ca
use
-ori
ente
d a
ct
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Cohort
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ca
use
-ori
ente
d a
ct
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Cohort2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Cohort
Age of members
4243
46 46 4647 47
4849 49 49
52
54
35
40
45
50
55
Sport
Educa
tional
ALL R
espon
dents
Union
Enviro
nment
al
Hobby
Profe
ssion
al
Human
itaria
n
Consu
mer
Churc
h
Oth
erPar
ty
Social
club
Membership in associations
Cases weighted by DWEIGHT
Cohort
1980-1985
1970-1979
1960-1969
1950-1959
1940-1949
1930-1939
1920-1929
Me
an
To
t. m
em
be
rs in
vo
lun
tary
ass
oci
atio
ns
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
0.0
Major Region
Nordic Europe
Northern Europe
Mediterranean Europe
Postcommunist Europe
Conclusions
From the politics of loyalties to the politics of choice?– Citizen oriented action peak in middle age– Cause-oriented acts most common among young
people – Associations: Mixed pattern– Young people not more engaged in new social
movements