1

Luke MonteiroApril 30, 2015

Urban EconomicsProfessor JB Rosser

Environmental Sustainability of Urbanization in Developing Countries

2

Introduction

Over time, countries grow in terms of things like their populations and economy. Much

of this can be attributed to urbanization within the country as they began to develop cities which

can become centers for manufacturing and places for individuals to live where they can be closer

to those jobs. This became especially true after the Industrial Revolution which began in the mid-

1700s in Britain (McLamb 2011). Specifically, the acquirement of new inventions and methods

for production allowed massive industrialization primarily in Western countries like Britain and

the United States. However, one important thing that should be remembered from the Industrial

Revolution is the fact that it had negative externalities. In particular, the transition of human

labor to machine based capital caused a need for energy sources such as coal, and later natural

gas and petroleum to be used in urban factories which produced substantial amounts of pollution

(McLamb 2011). Although society has become smarter in the last 200 years by analyzing and

attempting to reduce, the countries that have only really begun on projects to mitigate

environmental problems such as pollution have been Western countries like the United States.

Cohen (2006) indicates that over the next few decades, most of the world’s population will reside

in urban developments in developing countries. This can only exacerbate certain problems

regarding pollution in the future because of the increase not only in household energy

consumption, but also in terms of expansions in industries that rely on fossil fuels. Thus, I

present the question: is urbanization in developing countries sustainable and are there methods

for mitigating pollution in countries like China and South Africa? Looking at both South Africa

and China is sensible because not only are their urban systems currently major sites of pollution,

but these are both BRICS nations which are currently developing countries which can only

3

increase their use of resources which can increase pollution and environmental problems in their

respective countries.

What is sustainability?

Before we evaluate anything, it is probably important to find a cogent definition for the

word sustainability in terms of the environment. A reasonable definition would be that harmful

by-products of urban industry such as carbon dioxide should not be produced faster than they can

be broken down by the environment (Kiamba 2012). This definition seems reasonable because

not only does it pertain to the ability for cities to produce negative externalities like pollution, but

it gives an important premise that cities can still produce the negative externality as long as it

doesn’t exceed a level where it cannot be assimilated into the environment. In terms of certain

local pollutants, this is possible because some local pollutants can be broken down at a decent

pace. However, carbon dioxide as a global pollutant is a bit more difficult to break down and

therefore is less likely to be achieved as sustainable. Therefore, it is important to look at the EKC

to understand if carbon dioxide can be considered sustainable as well.

Reasons for Unsustainable Cities

In general, there are many reasons for why current developing countries being unable to

reach this definition of sustainable. One reason is that because cities typically have substantial

amounts of congestion due to citizens driving cars which can be a major cause of environmental

problems (Cohen 2006). Specifically, congestion can cause concentrations of carbon emissions,

lead, and particulate matter (Cohen 2006).

Another major reason why developing cities can be considered unsustainable is that even

though the resources and wastes of an urban society can be resolved in a sustainable way, those

inputs and negative outputs which become invisible typically become indicators of unsustainable

4

measures (Allen 2009). In particular, the ecological footprint of urbanization doesn’t become

apparent until impacts of the environment take effect on citizen’s health, such as environment

related skin cancer (Allen 2009).

A third reason unsustainability becomes a problem is because as affluence grows, there is

an increase in energy consumption which means there are large amounts of emissions resulting

from fossil fuels which turns into air pollution (Martínez-Zarzoso et. al 2011). Martínez-Zarzoso

(2011) also indicates that as urban spaces improve in affluence, their manufacturing and job

sectors serve as pull factors for rural migrants, which in turn causes urban demographic growth,

more energy consumption, and more air pollution.

One last reason urbanization can become unsustainable is due to the fact that urbanization

requires a transition from traditional methods of energy to modern methods of energy which can

be environmentally damaging (Martínez-Zarzoso et al. 2011).

Reasons for Sustainability

Although there are many examples that determine urbanization to be unsustainable, there

are also arguments that go in the other direction. One of these arguments is the modernization

theory which suggests that, in fact, capitalist economies can have innovations which can reduce

emissions as urbanization increases based on population (Martínez-Zarzoso 2011). Factors of

these capitalist economies include things like improvements in sanitation facilities and

transitions to other modes of energy like nuclear, wind, and solar (Martinez-Zarzoso 2011).

Another reason is that typically urban developments and business in cities will attempt to

achieve economies of scale, especially in terms of input costs like energy. As a result, cities

become more compact to reduce those energy costs leading to more efficient uses of energy and

less emissions (Martinez-Zarzoso 2011).

5

Another reason urbanization may be sustainable is because of the development of mass

transport systems like buses or metro systems (Martinez-Zarzoso 2011). This idea is effectively

that over time cities will urbanize to the point where they will establish systems that reduce the

use of cars which can cause congestion and emit pollutants on an immense scale.

Environmental Kuznets Curve

However, it is important to look at whether or not it can be sustainable or not. In order to

do this, it is ideal to use the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Environmental Kuznets Curve is

a probable relationship between environmental degradation and income per capita (Stern 2003).

The hypothesis based on Kuznets original analysis of income inequality is empirically strong

while being econometrically weak (Stern 2003). This empirical effect results from a point where

the scale effect of environmental degradation of growing countries overwhelms the time –related

effect of urban societies that grow slower and can effectuate change through pollution reduction

policies (Stern 2003). Wealthy societies can promote these kind of policies whereas developing

countries may be at risk of being environmentally unsustainable because there pollution

reduction efforts either cannot match their pollution creation or is offset by a need to grow. Stern

(2003) indicates that the EKC particularly refers to four kinds of emissions: sulfur dioxide, SPM,

nitrous oxides, and carbon monoxide. However, the Stern (2003) article also indicates that

carbon dioxide doesn’t apply to the EKC and that those emissions actually increase with income.

In fact, attempts to improve environmental problems may aggravate other problems which

demand emissions and increase pollutants (Stern 2003). However, newer data supports the notion

that the EKC may be relative to urbanization as an inverse U-shaped curve suggesting that

developing countries that have higher urbanization experience lower environmental degradation

and lower carbon dioxide level, while some studies show that generally, developing countries do

6

not apply to the EKC on an income per capita basis (Martínez-Zarzoso 2011). In general, it is

determined that modernization and efficiency may be some of the factors which deter the carbon

dioxide emissions (Martinez-Zarzoso 2011).

China

The first country that should we look at is China. Being a country so populous and with

an incredibly fast-growing economy, it is easy to evaluate as a country that is both developing

and increasing in urbanization. Although a good portion of its population, 690 million, is already

living in cities, more people are expected to emigrate to urban systems in the country (Zhou et al

2012). In 2009, China was found to be largest contributor to global carbon dioxide at 7707

million tons (Ramayia 2012). When applying the EKC, there is evidence that in general, carbon

dioxide emissions in China actually grow with GDP (Taylor 2013). However, the Martinez-

Zarzoso (2011) article defended that there was a relationship between urbanization and the EKC

for China as a middle-income country. The reason this may be the case is because even though

urbanization isn’t necessarily deterring energy intensity, the country’s focus on increasing GDP

has established an ever growing GDP per capita is not directly doing anything to decrease

consumption or improve energy intensity (Elliot et al 2014). This means that the EKC curve can

be its required inverse U-shape because there is enough reduction in energy intensity and

increase in GDP per capita to lead to a perception where the curve begins to slope down and

carbon dioxide emissions seem sustainable. In particular, the government of China has centered

its approach such that GDP growth should continue through any possible negative environmental

externalities (Elliot et al 2014).

Solution

7

Although the studies prove the possibility of EKC in China, there is still a problem with

sustainability. The indication that innovation and efficiency will decrease emissions is still

something that can happen in the future as much of their urbanization is currently dependent on

carbon dioxide (Yin et al 2015). The decrease in carbon dioxide emissions are dependent on how

China treats its current emission production, and assumes that it will engage in low-carbon

activities (Yin et al 2015). One of these solutions is through low-carbon eco cities. Since much

research points to the fact that cities produce almost 80% of carbon dioxide emissions, it is only

natural for a country like China which is attempting to move most of their rural population into

urban areas to try reduce the possibility of those emissions since it is more or less in a state of the

EKC curve where emissions can still be considered unsustainable (Zhou et al 2012, Yin et al.

2015). One way that China is planning on solving this is through indicators. One example of this

in regard to carbon production is average carbon emission per capita where less than 5 tons of

average carbon emission per capita can be considered low carbon (Zhou et al 2012). The keep

this in a research state because it is not yet controllable. However, an example of something that

they do control is carbon emissions per GDP, which they keep at 150 tons per million USD

(Zhou et al 2012).

Another way China is attempting to promote low-carbon cities is by improving green

transportation (Zhou et al 2012). Not only does it contain indicators for research on certain

transportation systems, but they are also building green transport systems in places like Tianjin

(Zhou et al 2012).

South Africa

South Africa is another country that recently has been on the rise as a developing country

in a developing continent (Ramayia 2012). This is especially true in terms of its increases in

8

urbanization and its large increases in CO2 emissions over the last decade or so. In fact, it is the

twelfth largest producer of carbon dioxide in the world at 451 million tons (Ramayia 2012).

Although this number is dwarfed in comparison to the CO2 numbers created by the United States

and China, South Africa’s carbon emissions per capita is incredibly high at 9.18 tons of carbon

dioxide emission per capita, which is actually larger than China which is at 5.83 (Ramayia 2012).

Several research papers have discovered that, in fact, there is an EKC curve in South Africa

when understanding urbanization (Martinez-Zarzoso et al 2011, Shahbaz et al 2013). However,

even though the EKC exists for South Africa, it doesn’t necessarily mean that urbanization is

sustainable or that it doesn’t hurt the environment. In fact, it has been found that in one instance,

urbanization still causes an extensive amount of environmental degradation and can hurt the

quality of the environment (Shahbaz et al 2013). It has also been found that carbon dioxide in

particular is not sustainable and that in order to have reductions in emissions, there needs to be a

sacrifice in growth (Nasr et al 2014). In fact, it is a circular problem because South Africa cannot

afford to sacrifice growth when it experiences such high levels of inequality, poverty, and

unemployment, but it also is not currently in a position to urbanize without adverse effects on the

environment occurring through carbon dioxide emissions (Nasr et al 2014).

Solution

The main problem with South Africa’s inability to address environmental concerns

regarding urbanization stems from the fact that they lack technological innovation. In order to

acquire innovations which may put South Africa in a position to reduce carbon dioxide

emissions, the country needs to expand itself in terms of trade (Shahbaz et al 2013). In particular,

trade openness opens them up on the world stage to acquire innovations through trade, and even

garner innovations by sharing and meeting with more developed countries like the US (Shahbaz

9

et al 2013). Another possibility lies with the businesses of South Africa, which can participate in

portfolio diversification and acquire more liquefiable assets which they can use to trade and

acquire innovations like more efficient mechanisms for resource use which can drastically

improve how resources like coal and natural gas are used when they produce harmful emissions

(Shahbaz et al 2013).

Impacts of C02

When urban systems produce 80% of carbon dioxide emission and China is the largest

overall polluter and South Africa is one of the largest polluters per capita, then it seems that they

have a considerable ability to impact global climate change in a negative way if their cities are

unsustainable in terms of carbon dioxide emissions (Zhou et al 2012, Ramayia 2012).

On a large scale, climate change resulting from carbon dioxide emissions can resulting in

a state of irreversibility where it surpasses the mark of 400 parts per million leading to massive

hypothetical impacts like sea level rising, “dust bowls” with the capability to destroy crops and

make certain locations uninhabitable, and ice melting which can exacerbate the problem of

methane trapped underneath ice sheets (Solomon et al 2008). Also, the ability for carbon dioxide

to last in the atmosphere for extended periods of time creates a major problem and is one of the

primary emissions leading to global warming (Solomon et al 2008).

On a smaller scale, climate change can cause problems and negative externalities which

directly affect the cities that produce emissions. In particular, climate change can negatively

affect roads such they become more expensive to build and maintain because the increased heat

will cause pavement to soften and expand making it easier for them to produce potholes and

rutting, while also limiting construction activities (EPA 2013). This creates a negative externality

where urban planners now have to account for increased spending on roads because climate

10

change will make them hard to maintain, which can hurt urban budgets in terms of appropriating

it properly for things like education. The EPA (2013) also notes that climate change will create

more chances at flooding and disastrous snow events which could decimate roadways, thus

leading to the same impact against urban systems which now have to account for this in their

budgets.

Climate Change also has an extensive societal impact. In particular, climate change

negatively affects urban populations by causing heat waves, damaging aging infrastructure, and

increasing the costs for each person for energy and water (EPA 2013). Beyond that, climate

change has the ability to negatively affect the urban poor by increasing food prices as food

because more difficult to produce and lowering real urban incomes (Hertel 2010). In particular,

the ability for climate change to create scenarios for both flooding and droughts can vastly

increase poverty by destroying food, homes, and people’s access to energy and water.

Conclusion

It can be determined that sustainability of urbanization in developing countries regarding

carbon dioxide emission can depend on the country. This is particularly true with China and

South Africa. While both countries can relate the Environmental Kuznets Curve to their

urbanization, South Africa is not actually in a sustainable position because unlike China, they do

not have the same level of innovation and trade openness that China has (Marinez-Zarzoso et al

2011, Shahbaz et al 2013). This means that China, even though it is not entirely in the down

slope of the inverse U-curve yet, it has the potential through innovation to develop low-carbon

cities which can be sustainable and reduce carbon dioxide emissions (Martinez-Zarzoso et al

2011, Zhou et al 2012). However, South Africa doesn’t have that, which means they are in a

circular position where urbanization will increase carbon dioxide emissions and sacrificing that

11

growth will only exacerbate urban issues like unemployment and poverty in the country (Nasr et

al 2014).

Currently both countries experience levels of unsustainability due to problems of

consumption and vehicle congestion which both can cause large amounts of pollution in urban

settings. Also the increase in wastes as an invisible problem that can cause air pollution lull

urban societies into thinking it isn’t problem until it causes pollution (Cohen 2006, Allen 2009,

Martinez-Zarzoso et al 2011).

It can also be determined that there are methods to alleviate carbon dioxide pollution in

countries like China and South Africa. By diversifying the portfolios of businesses and investors

and opening the country to trade, South Africa can attain much needed innovations it can use to

develop sustainable mechanisms to maintain more controllable levels of carbon dioxide relative

to their population and the income of the country (Shahbaz 2013). China, on the other hand, has

plans to produce low-carbon cities through controlling certain aspects about cities and

researching other ways of reducing pollutants through indicators (Zhou et al 2012). By doing

these things, both countries can achieve forms of modernization which can improve the

efficiency of energy consumption in their respective cities while also improving transportation

systems which can decrease congestion and car based pollution.

Finally, it is evident that not addressing the problem of carbon dioxide can be fairly

detrimental. Not only do China and South Africa produce enough urban carbon emissions to

affect global climate change in terms of sea level rising and ice sheets melting, but emissions can

create climate change that have direct negative consequences on urban systems through roads

and hurting the urban poor (EPA 2013, Hertel 2010).

12

Ultimately, through the Environmental Kuznets Curve, sustainability is a possibility for

urban cities in developing nations regarding carbon dioxide emissions because the ability for

cities to modernize and develop methods for reducing emissions through innovation and

efficiency of compact cities. This means that there are possibilities for mitigating impacts to

warming that result come from carbon dioxide emissions.

13

Bibliography:

1. Allen, Adriana. "Sustainable Cities or Sustainable Urbanisation?" UCL Journal of Sustainable Cities (2009). Web. 16 Apr. 2015. <https://www.ucl.ac.uk/sustainable-cities/results/gcsc-reports/allen.pdf>.

2. Cohen, Barney. "Urbanization In Developing Countries: Current Trends, Future Projections, And Key Challenges For Sustainability." Technology in Society (2006): 63-80. Technology in Society. Web. 16 Apr. 2015. <http://storage.globalcitizen.net/data/topic/knowledge/uploads/2012020681710705.pdf>.

3. Elliot, Robert, Puyang Sun, and Tong Zhu. "Urbanization and Energy Intensity: A Province-level Study for China." Department of Economics Discussion Paper (2015). University of Birmingham. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/Documents/college-social-sciences/business/economics/2014-discussion-papers/14-05.pdf>.

4. EPA. "Transportation Impacts & Adaptation." EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, 9 Sept. 2013. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/transportation.html>.

5. Hertel, T. W., and S. D. Rosch. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (2010): 355-85. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://aepp.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2010/09/02/aepp.ppq016.full.pdf>.

6. Kiamba, Anita. "The Sustainability of Urban Development in Developing Economies." The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 8.Issue 1 (2012): 20-25. Journal of Sustainable Development. Web. 16 Apr. 2015. <http://www.consiliencejournal.org/index.php/consilience/article/viewFile/262/112>.

7. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, and Antonello Maruotti. "The Impact Of Urbanization On CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Developing Countries." Ecological Economics Vol. 70.Issue 7 (2011): 1344-353. Ecological Economics. Web. 16 Apr. 2015. <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800911000814>.

8. McLamb, Eric. "Impact of the Industrial Revolution | Ecology Global Network." Ecology Global Network. Ecology, 18 Sept. 2011. Web. 16 Apr. 2015. <http://www.ecology.com/2011/09/18/ecological-impact-industrial-revolution/>.

9. Nasr, Adnen, Rangan Gupta, and João Sato. "Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa? A Co-Summability Approach Using a Century of Data." Department of Economics Working Paper Series (2014). University of Pretoria. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp_2014_66.zp39458.pdf>.

10. Ramayia, Jonathon. "Placing South Africa in the Global Carbon Picture." Placing South Africa in the Global Carbon Picture. 13 Jan. 2012. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://urbanearth.co.za/articles/placing-south-africa-global-carbon-picture>.

11. Ramayia, Jonathon. "SA's CO2 Emissions per Capita." SA's CO2 Emissions per Capita. Urban Earth, 23 Jan. 2012. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://urbanearth.co.za/articles/sa’s-co2-emissions-capita>.

12. Shahbaz, Muhammad, Aviral Kumar Tiwari, and Muhammad Nasir. "The Effects of Financial Development, Economic Growth, Coal Consumption and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions in

14

South Africa." Energy Policy Vol. 61 (2013): 1452-459. Energy Policy. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513006496>.

13. Solomon, S., G.-K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein. "Irreversible Climate Change Due To Carbon Dioxide Emissions." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2008): 1704-709. National Academy of Sciences of the USA. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/1704.long>.

14. Stern, David. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve." Internet Encyclopaedia of Ecological Economics (2003). International Society for Ecological Economics. Web. 16 Apr. 2015. <http://isecoeco.org/pdf/stern.pdf>.

15. Taylor, Tim. "'China and the Environmental Kuznets Curve'" Economist's View. 28 May 2013. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/05/china-and-the-environmental-kuznets-curve.html>.

16. Yin, Jianhua, Mingzheng Zheng, and Jian Chen. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation and Technical Progress on CO2 Kuznets Curve: An Evidence from China." Energy Policy Vol. 77 (2015): 97-108. Energy Policy. Web. 30 Apr. 2015. <http://uw8rw3ad9q.scholar.serialssolutions.com/?sid=google&auinit=J&aulast=Yin&atitle=The effects of environmental regulation and technical progress on CO 2 Kuznets curve: An evidence from China&id=doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.008&title=Energy policy&volume=77&date=2015&spage=97&issn=0301-4215>.

17. Zhou, Nan, Gang He, and Christopher Williams. "China’s Development of Low Carbon Eco-Cities and Associated Indicator Systems." ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY, 1 July 2012. Web. 12 Feb. 2015. <http://china.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/china_eco-cities_indicator_systems.pdf>.