company presentation · 2020-06-01 · company presentation 19 april 2018. disclaimer important:...
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Consolidated Energy Limited (“CEL”)
Company Presentation
19 April 2018
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Disclaimer
IMPORTANT: This document is for informational purposes only. This document is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and should not be
considered as a recommendation by Consolidated Energy AG (the “Company”) or any other person in relation to the Company. This document does not constitute
an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer of the sale or purchase of securities or an invitation to purchase or tender for the Company. Securities of the Company shall
not be offered or sold, in any jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
Certain information in this document is based on management estimates. Such estimates have been made in good faith and represent the current beliefs of
management. Management believes that such estimates are founded on reasonable grounds. However, by their nature, estimates may not be correct or complete.
Accordingly, no representation or warranty (express or implied) is given that such estimates are correct or complete.
This document includes 'forward-looking statements'. Forward-looking statements are all statements which do not describe facts of the past but contain the words
"believe", "estimate", "expect", "anticipate", "assume", "plan", "intend", "could", and words of similar meaning. These forward-looking statements are subject to
inherent risks and uncertainties since they relate to future events and are based on current assumptions and estimates of the Company, which might not occur at all
or occur not as assumed. They therefore do not constitute a guarantee for the occurrence of future results or performances of the Company. The actual financial
position and the actual results of the Company as well as the overall economic development and the regulatory environment may differ materially from the
expectations which are assumed explicitly or implicitly in the forward-looking statements and do not comply to them. Therefore, investors are warned to base their
investment decisions with respect to the Company on the forward-looking statements mentioned in this document.
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Agenda
Company OverviewII
Key HighlightsIII
Financial OverviewIV
Recent DevelopmentsI
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CEL’s Key Recent Developments
4
• FY 2017 adj. EBITDA of $325MM up 26% from FY 2016 adj. EBITDA of $258MM
• 2H 2017 methanol production up 21.8% from 1H 2017
• Average Q1 2018 U.S. contract prices $477/t up 24% from Q4 2017
• Q1 2018 methanol production volume slightly ahead of Q4 2017
2017 Full Year
Performance and Q1
2018 Trading Update
• Recent CNC long-term contract signed
• Overall situation is expected to recover further during 2018 through various supply sources
• Next to CEL’s parent owned/MHTL’s exclusively dedicated gas field DeNovo, the T&T gas undersupply situation
will be relieved via numerous exploration fields coming onstream 2018 as well as 2019ff
Trinidadian Gas
Production Recovery
on Track
• Refinancing is de-risking refinancing risk at CEL level for next 7 years with reset maturity profile
• Overall cost of capital will decrease further, with a total asset base of $5.5bn
Refinancing De-risking
CEL Maturity Profile
• 97.5% project completion with funded investments of $1,736MM as of 28/02/2018
• Natgasoline on track to start production of 1.75MM metric tons of methanol per year during Q2 2018
• Potential incremental $300MM to group EBITDA(1) p.a.
Natgasoline Update
5
1
2
3
Notes:
(1) Assuming full facility capacity (5,000 metric tons/day or 1.75MM metric tons/year), a methanol price (U.S. contract price) of $420/metric ton, an EBITDA margin of approximately
40% and excluding any non-recurring costs and expenses related to the construction of the Natgasoline facility
• CEL group shipping lease commitments were transferred outside of the group
• Release of operating lease commitments of approximately $894MM as per 31.12.2017
Rating and Capital
Structure
Improvement4
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5
Trading Update
Q4 2017 Operational Highlights
Production Volumes
• Methanol production volumes up
in Q4 2017 49% from Q4 2016 but
still reduced due to overall natural
gas curtailments
• Q1 2018 volumes slightly ahead of
Q4 2017
• Stable production in fertilizer
plants despite a negative impact
due to a plant incident in Q4 2017
now resolved
Price
• Methanol Q1 2018 prices were up
on average 24% from Q4 2017
• UAN Q1 2018 prices increased by
14% on average from Q4 2017
• Q4 2017 Ammonia prices up on
average 51% from Q3 2017
MHTL Methanol Production (metric tons)
MHTL AUM (1) Production (metric tons)
U.S. Methanol Price (in $/metric ton)
UAN (2) Price (in $/metric ton)
N2000/CNC Ammonia Production (metric tons)
157 150 154138 141
159 165 170
150129
141 141
94
155 165139
0
50
100
150
200
Q1
16'
Q2
16'
Q3
16'
Q4
16'
Q1
17'
Q2
17'
Q3
17'
Q4
17'
N2000 CNC
Ammonia Price (in $/metric ton)
284 274
216184
265 263
175
264
0
100
200
300
400
Q1
16'
Q2
16'
Q3
16'
Q4
16'
Q1
17'
Q2
17'
Q3
17'
Q4
17' Notes:
(1) AUM stands for ammonia, UAN, and melamine
(2) UAN stands for urea ammonium nitrate
883
694
486 483582 585
700 721
0
250
500
750
1,000
Q1
16'
Q2
16'
Q3
16'
Q4
16'
Q1
17'
Q2
17'
Q3
17'
Q4
17'
+3%
257 237 267 309424
415
370
384
477
0
250
500
750
Q1
16'
Q2
16'
Q3
16'
Q4
16'
Q1
17'
Q2
17'
Q3
17'
Q4
17'
Q1
18'
+24%
542482
332
499 488 489 471
328
0
200
400
600
Q1
16'
Q2
16'
Q3
16'
Q4
16'
Q1
17'
Q2
17'
Q3
17'
Q4
17'
-30%
166 170 137 139 155 154 129 149170
-50
50
150
250
Q1
16'
Q2
16'
Q3
16'
Q4
16'
Q1
17'
Q2
17'
Q3
17'
Q4
17'
Q1
18'
+14%
+51%
1
Q4 2017 Operational Numbers Demonstrate Strong Recovery, Robust Q1 2018 Prices and Production Volumes Up
Source: MHTL Monthly Management Reports
Source: MHTL Monthly Management Reports
Source: CNC/N200 Monthly Management ReportsSource: CNC/N200 Monthly Management Reports
Source: MHTL Monthly Management Reports
Source: MHTL Monthly Management Reports
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6
Pricing Update: Strong Recovery in Methanol Prices
Long Term Methanol Price Development (2008-current) Current Pricing Environment
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
20
08
-01
20
08
-04
20
08
-07
20
08
-10
20
09
-01
20
09
-04
20
09
-07
20
09
-10
20
10
-01
20
10
-04
20
10
-07
20
10
-10
20
11
-01
20
11
-04
20
11
-07
20
11
-10
20
12
-01
20
12
-04
20
12
-07
20
12
-10
20
13
-01
20
13
-04
20
13
-07
20
13
-10
20
14
-01
20
14
-04
20
14
-07
20
14
-10
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-07
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
Methanol, Contract-Net Transaction, FOB Houston, TX, US$ per Metric Ton (converted)
Methanol, Spot, Average, FOB Houston, TX, US$ per Metric Ton (converted)
Source:
(1) Third Party Database as of April 2018
1
2018 Prices vs. 2017 Prices Up
• Posted contract price is
$495/metric ton in March 2018
• Prices are on average up 28%
since beginning of Q4 2017
• Q1 2018 average contract price
is $477/metric ton
• Prices have continued to
increase significantly since
December 2017 and are
currently around the
$500/metric ton level and
market sentiment remains
strong for Q2 2018 and further
into 2018
• Only significant methanol
supply expansion to come
online in the Atlantic Basin in
2018 is CEL’s Natgasoline project
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Gas Supply in Trinidad in Recovery
7
Testified By Long-Term Gas Contract Renewal April 1, 2018
2
CNC and NGC Joint Press Release April 2, 2018 CEL Relationship with National Gas Company
• CEL has been in negotiations with the National Gas
Company in Trinidad and Tobago since 2016 over the
extension of a number of gas supply contracts with
various affiliates
1
First Long Term Contract Negotiated in Trinidad
• CEL believes this is the first long term contract signed
since 2013
• The underlying floating price contract which provides a
hedge in low ammonia price environments continues
2
All Contracts in Place with “natural hedge” pricing mechanics
• CEL and affiliates have 5 separate contracts with NGC
across the Trinidad & Tobago Point Lisas Estate
• All contracts have favourable pricing mechanics allowing
CEL to have a “natural hedge” in place as demonstrated in the 2009 and 2016 EBITDA with average realized
methanol price around or below $ 200/metric ton
3
New CNC contract important proof point for CEL relationship with National Gas Company
First long term contract signed since 2013
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2,017 1,964 1,943 1,759 1,723 1,794 1,642 1,576 1,166
1,712 1,667 1,830
1,647 1,754 1,594 1,697
967 1,422
3,729 3,631
3,773
3,406 3,476 3,388 3,339
2,543 2,588
2,884
0.0%
4.4%
0.0%
10.0%
6.2%8.1%
8.7%
29.0%
14.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Run-Rate
1H Production 2H Production Undersupply as % of capacity
Production Recovery Through Improved Gas Supply
MHTL Historical Methanol Production Volume (kMT) vs. Gas undersupply as % of total capacity
DeNovo
supply
~800k p.a.
Recovery
Nameplate Capacity
No Supply Issues Gas Supply Curtailed 5-15% Worst
Potential
Juniper
supply
Notes:
(1) Run rate based from Q4 2017 production
(2) CEL is able to restart one of the two “on hold” plants within a week8
Run-rate Q4 2017 methanol production above FY 2017. Proman owned/MHTL exclusively dedicated gas field DeNovo will add ~800k
metric tons p.a., returning MHTL methanol production levels to normal
Gas Supply Recovery expected in 2018ff
2
Start up of TTMC1
and CMC facilities
with approx. 1MM
metric tons(2)
‘000
met
ric to
ns p
.a.
(1)
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Project Progress
• Natgasoline project is 97.5% complete as of 28/02/2018
• World class facility with a nameplate capacity of 1.75MM
metric tons p.a.
• Only new capacity expected in the Atlantic Basin to come
online in 2018
Site Pictures
Site
April 2018
Site
April 2018
Notes:
(1) Thereof $19MM restricted cash under existing tax-exempt bonds
(2) Assuming full facility capacity (5,000 metric tons/day or 1.75MM metric tons/year), a methanol price (U.S. contract price) of $420/metric ton, an
EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and excluding any non-recurring costs and expenses related to the construction of the Natgasoline facility
9
Relative Weight Q4 2017 Cumulative
Engineering 4.6% 0.2% 99.8%
Procurement 44.1% 0.0% 100.0%
Construction 51.3% 7.1% 95.1%
Overall 100% 6.5% 97.5%
Funding
• 97.5% project completion with funded investments of $1,736MM as
of 28/02/2018
• CEL equity invested to 31/12/2017 ($MM):
• Natgasoline is estimated to contribute a potential incremental
$300MM to group EBITDA(2) p.a. with production expected to
commence in Q2 2018
Equity invested 650Cash at
Natgasoline (1)28
Equity Q1 2018 ~0
Total CEL Equity in Natgasoline 650
Natgasoline Capacity Added to CEL in Q2 2018Natgasoline potential incremental EBITDA of $300MM p.a.(2)
3
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Natgasoline Production Ramp-Up
• Auxiliary Boiler Commissioned January 14th 2018
• All utilities in service January 19th 2018
• Steam supplied to Air Liquide February 18th 2018
• Air Liquid start Air Separation Unit March 9th 2018
• Reformed Catalyst Loaded April 8th 2018
• Mechanical Completion certificate issued April 18th 2018
✓ Major milestone effectively marking the end of construction and handover of the plant to the operating team for final commissioning and start-up for first production
Remaining in the coming weeks to Start ProductionMajor Milestones Already Finalised
Proman Team CEL Reference Plant Production Start Ramp-Ups (Actual Production in % of Nameplate Capacity)
Source:
Proman production data 10
81.8%91.6%
64.9%
77.3%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
CNC
2002
N2000
2004
M5000
2005
AUM
2009Production From Plant Start Up for the First 90 Days
ø1st 90 Days Production 78.9%
Production Start Year
• Complete catalyst loading
• Alignment and coupling of synthesis compressor and turbine
• Reformer refractory dry out
• Catalyst reduction
• Oxygen available from Air Liquide’s Air Separation Unit
• FIRST methanol production
✓ Senior operators have been onsite for the past 18months including Proman / CEL senior leadershipto assist with start up
3
Natgasoline potential incremental EBITDA of $300MM p.a.(1)
Notes:
(1) Assuming full facility capacity (5,000 metric tons/day or 1.75MM metric tons/year), a methanol price (U.S. contract price) of $420/metric ton,
an EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and excluding any non-recurring costs and expenses related to the construction of the Natgasoline facility
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Natgasoline Capacity Added to CEL in Q2 2018
11
3
Natgasoline potential incremental EBITDA of $300MM p.a.
Mechanical Completion – April 2018
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Strong Increase in Asset Base with NatgasolineStrong Increase in Asset Base Despite Stable Debt Levels
3,753 3,675
5,429 5,533
717349 586 543
1,2501,250
1,250 1,299
253 253
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Total
Assets
Financial
Debt
Total
Assets
Financial
Debt
Total
Assets
Financial
Debt
Total
Assets
Financial
Debt
CEL Group MHTL CEL (BBS) G2X / Natgas
1,967
At initial bond launch (pro forma)(30/06/2014)
31/12/2015
1,599
2,089
52%
Debt/Total Assets
44%
Debt/Total Assets
39%
Debt/Total Assets
Notes:
(1) Natgasoline Shareholder Loans of $321MM (PIK non-cash bearing unsecured interest debt held by CEL and OCI) not included
(2) Pro-rata production capacity of total 7.8MM metric tons x applied $1,100/metric ton replacement value based on average Natgasoline and BLF total EPC costs; 7.8MM metric tons derived from
5.2 MM metric tons of methanol (4.1MM MHTL+26.08%x1.1MM OMC+ 50% 1.75MM metric tons Natgasoline) + 2.6MM metric tons fertilizer (2.2MM metric tons MHTL fertilizer
+ 30% each CNC/N2000 x 0.7MM metric tons
2,095
Total Assets and Financial Debt Over Time - CEL Group(1)
Due to CEL’s ability to invest into Natgasoline with a strong discount to the invested equity, the overall asset base situation improved
significantly for CEL bondholders with the overall debt/total assets ratio having improved
31/12/2016 31/12/2017
3
8,577 Replacement
Value(2)
38%/24%
Debt/Total Assets
Stable Total Debt +6% // Debt/Total Assets (14% points)
12
$‘00
0
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Shipping vessel leases previously held by MHTL have been assigned as of 31 March 2018 releasing MHTL of operating lease
commitments of approx. $894MM (see below note of the CEL FY 2017 Financial Statement)
Third-party contracts with Mitsui OSK Lines have been assigned from MHTL to outside the CEL Group credit
• The new Proman affiliate will not only provide shipping services to CEL Group companies incl. MHTL but have other third-party
customers
• Therefore all contracts will be made at arms-length
• Proman affiliate takes the long-term risk with the leases, CEL Group companies receive very short term contracts and can
change to third party-shipping vessel contracts as well
• Irrespective of S&P’s “group methodology,” Mitsui OSK will have no recourse to CEL Group
CEL/MHTL will benefit from the new shipping arrangements operationally
• Next to complete transfer of debt MHTL will have overall lower logistics and operating costs. Less commitments, less cost =
benefit!
• Freight costs are reduced for CEL Group producers by improved utilization of fleet via increased sub-charters to third party
customers
13
1
2
3
13
4 Transfer of Shipping Leases Outside CEL GroupRationalised CEL/MHTL Balance Sheet Exposure
Effective March 31, 2018
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Current Refinancing De-risks CEL Maturity Profile
14
Current Capital Structure
Notes:
(1) New PIK shareholder loan (50% OCI/50% Proman) replacing existing Promissory Notes around 24 April 2018 with existing maturity 2021 kept in place
(2) Assumed 5 years extension of MHTL revolver in conjunction with refinancing into CEF revolver
300 283 253
499
300
500321
0
200
400
600
800
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
CEF Fixed Rate Notes
6.75%
MHTL Revolver
Natgas PIK
CEF Floating
Notes
CEF Fixed Rate Notes
6.875%Natgas
Tax Exempt Bonds
MHTL TLB
Revised Capital Structure Illustrative
253
525
300
500
321
0
200
400
600
800
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
New CEF TLB
NatgasPIK(1)
CEF Floating
Notes
CEF Fixed Rate Notes
6.875%Natgas
Tax Exempt Bonds
Illustrative CEF
Unsecured
Potential Refinancing CEL Group
Potential New Issuance CEL GroupNo Single Year With More than $500MM
Repayment
Pushing Out Total $1.1bn of $2.4bn CEL Consolidated Debt against a Total Asset Base of $5.5bn
550
5
New CEF RCF(2)
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Agenda
Company OverviewII
Key HighlightsIII
Financial OverviewIV
Recent DevelopmentsI
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CEL History – Growing Leading PlatformGrowing Into the World’s Largest Methanol Producer and Marketing Company
16
Building and owning Trinidad methanol Acquiring full control Current U.S. Activity
• First plant with Proman as joint sponsor (CMC) is completed in 1993
Growing the business
• Proman completes 4th Trinidadian methanol plant in 1998
• Trinidadian company (MHTL) formed in 1999 to hold 4 methanol plants
• CEL formed in 2003 to consolidate 43% MHTL stake of Proman, Helm and
Ferrostaal
Building world’s largest standalone methanol plant• CEL/MHTL’s M5000 plant completed starts production in 2005
• Proman and Helm acquiring
Ferrostaal's CEL stake in 2012
• CEL (CH) ownership 75%(1)
Proman, 25%(2) Helm
• CEL (Barbados) buys remaining
57% stake in MHTL, resulting in
full control of asset in 2014
Initial U.S. expansion
• CEL subsidiary G2X acquires
controlling 50% stake in
Natgasoline in 2016 for
$630MM
• Largest methanol plant
in US expected to be
producing in Q2 2018
• Potential to roll-out 2nd
shovel ready and fully
permitted US project Big
Lake Fuels (BLF) on
which preliminary
ground works have been
completed
>10MM
metric tons(kt)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Annual Methanol Capacity ('000 metric tons) Annual Fertilizer Capacity ('000 metric tons)
Growth through partnership model M&A expansion US expansion
Notes:
(1) -1 share
(2) +1 share
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Diversified Production with Recent Growth in the U.S.Overview of Fully Invested Asset Base
Country Trinidad Oman United States United States Trinidad
CEL
Shareholding100% 26%
50%
controlling68% 30% / 30%
Production
Capacity p.a.
4.1MM methanol
2.2MM fertilizer1.1MM methanol 1.8MM methanol
0.1 MM methanol+
1.4MM methanol
project(1)
1.3MM ammonia
7.0MM methanol
2.2MM fertilizer
1.3MM ammonia
= 10.5MM metric
tons vs.
Methanex 9.3MM
metric tons
Group Shareholder
Split
OMC Total
CEL
30.0%
Proman
30.3%
Others
39.7%
CEL
30.0%
Proman
27.2%
Others
42.8%
CEL
26.1%
Others
73.9%
CNC N2000
17
CNC / N2000
G2X
50.0%
OCI
50.0%
10.5MM metric tons producer
Long-term strategy implemented with focus on U.S. capacity addition:
Globally diversified, integrated producer of more than 10MM metric tons of methanol, fertilizer and ammonia/nitrogen
CEL
100.0%
31 2 4 5 6
CEL
67.7%
Others
32.3%
G2XNatgasolineOMCMHTL
Notes:
(1) Big Lake Fuels project “on hold” at present
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MHTL Natural Gas Supply Contracts
MHTL customers
Price
Formula
Take or pay contracts
The price formula linked to end product
pricing allows MHTL to have a “natural hedge” in place as demonstrated in the 2009 and 2016 EBITDA with average
realized methanol price around or below $
200/t
Long Term Natural Gas Contracts
• CEL’s major production feedstock is natural gas (ca. 60-75% of COGS)
• The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) is a state-
owned company that aggregates natural gas from upstream producers (e.g.,
BP) and enters into back-to-back contracts with customers like MHTL
• NGC contracts provide a natural hedge as they are linked to prices of end
products
• Methanol gas prices are based on contract and spots prices in the markets
MHTL serves less discounts and freight / shipping costs
• Fertilizer gas prices based on published ammonia market prices (average of
FOB Caribbean price with gas used downstream (for melamine and UAN
production) at a discount)
• CEL and its affiliates have five separate contracts with NGC. The most
recent renewal was signed on April 1, 2018 for CNC
18
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Incremental Gas Supply in Trinidad and Tobago
Natural Gas Supply vs. Demand (MMCFD): CEL Modified Numbers
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source:
Wood Mackenzie, Including Company Estimates,
Trinidad Express – March 2017
Block 5(c) Starfish (Shell) Dragon (Shell) DeNovo (Proman)
• Gas production dominated by BP (55%) and Shell (20%) who own a majority of natural gas acreage. Decline in production 2010-2016 due to:
• BP’s production decline as a result of a lack of investment in exploration and drilling from 2010 (post Macondo) to 2015/2016 – Planning $5bn of
investment in following 5 years
• Shell’s investment decline is due to liquidity challenges experienced by BG (Shell acquired BG (Operator until the acquisition) in Feb. 2016) and
the pending completion of the Shell acquisition resulted in a lack of investment in Trinidad & Tobago together with a significant cost overrun on a
development asset (Starfish in 2015)
• In addition to Proman’s owned/MHTL’s exclusively dedicated gas field DeNovo, the T&T gas undersupply situation will be relieved via numerous
exploration fields coming onstream in 2018 and 2019ff
Gas Supply above historical highs until 2023
BPTT
CEL Estimates
New BP Supply
19
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Oman Methanol Company Shareholder Structure
CEL Strategic Stakes
• OMC is a Joint Venture between Oman Methanol Holding
Company LLC, a subsidiary of Omar Zawawi Establishment
and Methanol Holdings International Ltd. (MHIL)
• OMC operates a world scale methanol plant at the Sohar
Industrial Port in Oman
• OMC was founded in 2004 and the methanol plant started
production on 1st September 2007
(1)
• Headquartered in the Point Lisas Industrial Estate in
Trinidad, West Indies
• Caribbean Nitrogen Company Limited (CNC) owns an
ammonia facility
• The CNC plant was commissioned in 2002 and has the
capacity to produce 650,000 metric tons of ammonia p.a.
and a storage capacity of 80,000 metric tons
Caribbean Nitrogen Company Shareholder Structure
Nitrogen 2000 Shareholder Structure
• Nitrogen (2000) Unlimited is located in the Point Lisas
Industrial Estate in Trinidad and owns an ammonia facility
• The Nitrogen 2000 plant was commissioned in 2004 and has
the capacity to produce 650,000 metric tons p.a. and
storage capacity 80,000 metric tons
• N2000 was in operation for four and a half (4.5) years
before the first turnaround (TAR) in 2009
61
18
41
2015 2016 2017
Cash Dividends to CEL ($MM)
MHIL
60.0%
EOG
Resources
11.85%
CEL
30.00%Koch
Industries
27.87%
Process
Energy
30.28%
EOG
Resources
10.00%
CEL
30.00%Koch
Industries
32.80%
Process
Energy
27.20%
Oman
Methanol
Holding
Company
LLC 40.0%
2017 Dividend Increase
Stronger dividends through higher
production volumes in 2H 2017 and better
Methanol prices
Notes:
(1) Economic stake calculated via CEL’s 43.47% stake in Methanol Holdings International Ltd (MHIL) and its 60% stake in Oman Methanol Company LLC, on calculated through basis 26.08%
20
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Agenda
Company OverviewII
Key HighlightsIII
Financial OverviewIV
Recent DevelopmentsI
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Key Highlights
22
Global Methanol and Fertilizer Producer with Dominant Market Share1
Broad Diversification of Revenue and Customers2
Favourable Production, Demand and Pricing Outlook3
Strong Competitive Cost Advantage4
Strong Free Cash Flow and Deleveraging expected post completion of Natgasoline5
High Barriers to Entry for capacity additions6
Highly Supportive Strategic Shareholders7
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Dominant Market Shares across Products1
23
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%
Petronas
Mitsubishi
Shenhua
Sinopec
MGC
Yankuang
Zagros (Iran)
Sabic
CEL
Methanex
Notes:
(1) Including OMC and Natgasoline production volumes, excluding China Demand, (2) Defined as US, Canada and Trinidad, (3) Ammonia (4) Including
50% share of Point Lisas JV (50:50 CF / Koch), (5) Assuming 100% consolidation in the minority stakes in each of the assets from CNC and N2000; Total capacity of 2.1MM metric tons per year
(6) Including 49% share of Tringen JV with Trinidad government and excluding BASF JV project commissioning in 2017
Source: Third party data 2017 Source: Third party data 2017
Estimated Global Merchant Market Share for Methanol Estimated Global(2) Merchant Market Share for Fertilizer(3)
6%
8%
10%
28%
29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Yara
CEL
Koch
Nutrien
CF Industries(1)
(4)
(6)
(5)
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Broad Diversification of Revenue and Customers2
24
Trinidad 66%US 21%
Oman 13%
2017 Volume by producing region(1) 2017 Methanol Sales by end markets and customers
US
53%Europe
38%
Others
9%
By region(2)
US clients
2017 Volume by product(1)
Methanol
65%
Fertilizer
35%
Notes:
(1) Includes expected Natgasoline at full production
(2) Illustrative: Trinidad Methanol Production (MHTL)
Hexion
22%
Dow Corning
15%
BASF
11%
Koch
11%
BP North
America
8%
Others
34%
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25
Favorable Production and Demand Outlook
Worldwide Methanol Demand Growth (‘000s metric tons) – Market Study(2)
3
• Projected 5% CAGR for four
years to 2020, driven by MTO
demand
• Historical growth rates of 7%
CAGR
Source:
(2) Third Party Report 2017
CEL Asset Production(1) (MM metric tons per year)
4.3 4.4 3.6 3.75.1
6.9
2.8 3.13.0 3.0
3.5
3.57.1 7.56.6 6.6
8.6
10.4
0
3
5
8
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 Full Capacity
(current)
Full Capacity
(incl. Natgas)Methanol Fertilizer
Start of 1.75MM
methanol
production
during Q2 2018
Historical ProductionCapacity
Notes:
(1) Based on CEL pro 100% MHTL stake and assumes 100% OMC Production and 68% stake in G2X
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26
Methanol is a $400/metric ton Product
Last 10 Years Historical Price Distribution (2008-current)
Source:
(1) Third party data as of February 2018
97.5%
84.3%
62.0%
19.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Above 200 Above 300 Above 400 Above 500
Historical distribution of methanol prices within a tight range above $400/metric ton guaranteeing strong contribution for CEL’saverage cash cost below $200/metric ton
Median
$435
3
Q1 2018 Methanol Pricing at $495/metric ton
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Attractive Assets with Cost Advantage
27
All CEL Methanol Plants are Positioned Within 1st Quartile of the Global Methanol Cost Curve
Global Methanol Cost Curve (methanol cash costs per ton)
$ 7 per mmBTU gas costs
(hypothetical/unhedged)
$ 4 per mmBTU gas costs
(hypothetical/unhedged)
CEL plants below $200/metric ton cash costs
$ 434 per metric ton (methanol FOB
Houston average spot Feb-18)
4
China, RussiaExports, Germany, India, E. Europe
Eq. Guinea, Indonesia, Iran,Malaysia, Methanex Plants, Oman, Qatar, Saudi, Trinidad (MHTL), Venezuela, USA (G2X)
($ per metric ton)
2018E China
Total Demand
Cumulative available capacity (‘000 metric tons)
As historically proven CEL is clearly positioned within the lowest 1st quartile on the cost curve
Source:
MMSA April 2018
$ 495 per metric ton (methanol FOB
Houston average Contract Mar-18)
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76.8%64.6%
2008 2009
28
Cost Advantage Example: 2009 Case Study4
Commentary
• During 2009 MHTL’s methanol production rate was above
93%
• In 2009 the industry however
faced production rates of
below 65%
• In the downturn of the
commodity cycle MHTL was
able to achieve one of the
highest production rates in the
industry, while other players
had to leave the market
because they were high cost
producers
MHTL Methanol Capacity Utilization(1)
87.4%93.2%
2008 2009
Worldwide Methanol Production(1)
(2)
Notes:
(1) From Methanol Market Report, CMAI 2008 and 2009
(2) Without scheduled turnaround downtime. 2008 capacity utilisation was 75.5% including the turnaround downtime
Higher Cost Producers Reduced Utilisation Rates in 2009 Crisis while MHTL was Fully Producing
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Proven Ability to Manage Debt and Meet Obligations of Long Term Debt Partners
29
5
Total Debt Reduction from FY 2005 until FY 2017
Track record of reducing MHTL debt by $1bn or around 3.0x EBITDA multiple points within 7 years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total
Debt/EBITDA1.9x 1.1x 2.5x 4.9x 5.7x 3.4x 2.0x 2.2x 2.2x 1.6x 1.0x 2.4x 2.0x
Net
Debt/EBITDA1.4x 0.7x 2.1x 3.8x 4.4x 2.6x 1.1x 1.6x 1.7x 1.0x 0.8x 2.3x 1.8x
115 145 158
346 364 332
511
293170 217
66 26 56
343 270
876
1,155 1,163
1,057 694
723
650396
283
560 486
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cash Net Debt
458 414
1,035
1,501 1,527
1,389
1,205
1,016
819
613
349
Trin
ida
d P
rod
uct
ion
(M
HT
L) O
nly
586 543
Strong Proven Deleveraging: MHTL Example
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Despite announcements, significant barriers to entry for
greenfield methanol and fertilizer projects include:
Leading Player in a Market with Significant Barriers to Entry
1. Securing EPC Contract. Very difficult to source economic,
truly fixed price EPC needed for financing with capex inflation
across US
• Projects announced with $1.5-2bn cost routinely end
up at $2.5-3.5bn once full EPC price obtained. At that
point, or shortly after, projects are often cancelled
2. Time and Capital Intensive. Project financing can be difficult
to source given long time frame of 5+ years for facility to be
operational and uncertainty on off-take pricing
• Raising very risky development capital of c.$50MM+ is
difficult. However, once spent, does not mean project
will continue because debt/equity providers wary of
“spending good money after bad”
3. Early Mover’s Advantage. Early mover’s advantage as each successive greenfield methanol facility will have less incentive
to build capacity, particularly as import deficit shrinks
4. CEL Advanced Project Development. Includes BLF plant with
1.4MM of annual production, with only a 40 month build and
commissioning time when funded
Feasibility Study
Despite announcements, significant barriers to entry for
greenfield methanol projects include:
Front End Engineering Design and
Final Investment Decision
EPC & Commissioning
Performance Testing &
Commercial Operations
6 -18 Months
6 – 36
Months
36 – 42
Months
3 – 6 MonthsT
ime
Fra
me
5+
Ye
ars
Source:
Argus JJ&A Report – October 2015; Nexant Independent Engineer’s Report – April 2016; CEL
30
6 High Barriers to Entry
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Highly Supportive ShareholdersProven Commitment by the two Strategic Shareholders Proman and Helm
31
7
Strategic Shareholders Recent Equity Injection and Development
• Proman is headquartered in Switzerland with main operations in the
USA, Germany, Trinidad and Oman
• Leading EPC services contractor for, and owner of, methanol, ammonia
& ammonia based plants
• Proman has completed the construction of 8 methanol plants all on
time and at or below budget
• Proman has a 75% (-1 Share) ownership in CEL. Strategic management
for CEL lies with CEL shareholders Proman and the remaining 25% (+1
Share) holder Helm
• Proman and Helm cover the entire value chain across the products for
CEL:
✓ Operations (IPSL), Maintenance (Proman), Marketing (SCC, CPC, Helm)
• CEL shareholders have completed Natgasoline funding
after having taken the opportunity to invest $250MM
core equity during Q4 2016 into CEL and another
$75MM in Q2 2017 and Q3 2017
• CEL asset base has increased significantly with the
Natgasoline acquisition
Approx. 1,500 Employees#1 or #2 market share in
methanol markets
Selling into all global markets$1.3bn Net revenues and
EBITDA margins > 27%
Approx. $6.1bn
Total Assets
~ $350MM cash
~6.0MM metric tons p.a.
methanol and 3.0MM metric
tons p.a. fertilizer capacity
Proman Group: Key Facts in FY 2017
I. Project
Development
II.
Contracting
III. Gas
ProductionIV.
Production
V.
Marketing
& Services
Integrated Business Model Across the Value Chain
Since 1990 Proman has built 39% of the
total installed JM(1) capacity ex China
Others
61%
Proman
39%
Competitors (e.g. Methanex)
EPC Market Share(1)
Notes:
(1) Based on Licenses from JM = Johnson Matthey Catalysts Plc (Leading Licensor)
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Agenda
Company OverviewII
Key HighlightsIII
Financial OverviewIV
Recent DevelopmentsI
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CEL’s Resilient EBITDA MarginsProfitability Through Commodity Cycles due to Cost Advantage
33
Avg. MHTL
Methanol
Market Price
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
294 392 456 509 242 350 418 431 515 517 388 268 310
Constant EBITDA margins during recent lows of > 30% validating the natural hedge of the business model
572.5
991.7
1,270.5 1,287.6
792.2
1,162.2
1,727.7
1,522.51,610.4
1,562.8
1,294.2
830.5
1,191.6
257.2
428.6 456.7
330.1 300.8
485.5
716.4
553.6466.8 453.9
412.8
257.5324.6
45%43%
36%
26%
38%
42% 41%
36%
29% 29%
32% 31%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross Revenues ($MM) Adj. EBITDA ($MM) Adj. EBITDA Margin
Natural Hedge Resulting in High Operating Margins and Free Cash Flow
2017
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34
CEL and MHTL Q4 2017Review of Q4 2017 Financials
Key Financial Figures Q4 2017 and FY 2016 (in $MM) Net Debt Position (in $MM)
FY 2016 FY 2017 Q4 2016 Q4 2017
CEL (MHTL + Stakes)
Gross Revenues 815.4 1,153.3 206.7 298.9
MHTL EBITDA(1) 239.3 283.2 44.2 86.8
Cash Dividends from Stakes (2) 18.1 41.4 1.0 18.6
CEL Adj. EBITDA(3) 257.5 324.6 45.2 105.4
Average Methanol Price 268 398 309 384
FY 2016 FY 2017
CEL Group(4)
MHTL Secured Debt (Revolver + TLB) 585.7 542.8
Natgasoline Secured Debt
(Tax-Exempt Bonds)252.9 252.9
CEL Bonds 1,250.0 1,298.8
Total Financial Debt(5) 2,088.6 2,094.5
Cash (CEL Group) 224.9 44.6
Cash (MHTL) 26.0 56.4
Cash (G2X Group) 64.4 89.3
Consolidated Cash(6) 315.3 190.3
CEL Group Net Debt 1,773.3 1,904.2
LTM Adj. EBITDA(3) 257.5 324.6
CEL Group Ratios
Total Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA(3) 8.1x 6.5x/3.4x(7)
Net Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA(3) 6.9x 5.9x/3.0x(7)
Notes:
(1) MHTL Operating profit plus Depreciation (excludes extraordinary and non-recurring items of $ 73.5MM for Q4 2016) and $7.5MM adjustments in Q4 2017
(2) Paid cash dividends to CEL from N2000 (defined as proceeds from reduction in investments in associated companies)
(3) Adj. EBITDA CEL: MHTL + Dividend from Stakes, G2X expenses not included in adj. EBITDA definition
(4) CEL Group includes CEL (CH), CEL (Barbados), OPAG and CEF
(5) Excludes $6MM of reserve-based lending, $1MM mortgage and Natgasoline PIK Loan of CEL carrying amount $321MM (PIK non-cash bearing unsecured interest debt)
(6) Including restricted cash of Natgasoline
(7) Includes estimated Natgasoline potential incremental EBITDA of $300MM, assuming full facility capacity (5,000 metric tons/day or 1.75MM metric tons/year), a methanol price (U.S. contract price)
of $420/metric ton, an EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and excluding any non-recurring costs and expenses related to the construction of the Natgasoline facility
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35
Assets ($MM) FY 2016 FY 2017
Property, plant & equipment 3,566 3,718
Goodwill 515 515
Other intangibles 54 36
Other non-current assets 622 587
Inventory 128 125
Trade receivables 224 321
Other current receivables and current assets 5 40
Cash and Cash equivalents(1) 315 190
Total Assets 5,429 5,533
Equity and Liabilities ($MM) FY 2016 FY 2017
Total borrowings (Incl. PIK Loan) (2) 2,333 2,391
Provisions 386 389
Deferred tax liabilities 422 384
Other non current liabilities 2 2
Trade payables 111 221
Other current liabilities 1 26
Shareholders equity & non controlling interest 2,174 2,118
Total equity & liabilities 5,429 5,533
Comments
• Further increase in asset base through expansion with Natgasoline in
only 19 months from first investment until production commences
• Net debt of $1,904MM in FY 2017 with over $190MM of cash and
cash equivalents – net debt position temporarily increased for
Natgasoline expansion; leverage multiples post production start in line
with previous levels
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA (x) (3)
3.4x
6.9x5.9x
3.0x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 PF 2017
1
1
1
2
2
2
Notes:
(1) Includes $112MM of marketable securities and $45MM of restricted cash at Natgasoline
(2) Borrowings presented based on carrying value on balance sheet and includes PIK Loan of CEL and Reserve Based Lending
(3) Excludes $6MM of reserve-based lending, $1MM mortgage and Natgasoline PIK Loan of CEL carrying amount $321MM (PIK non-cash bearing unsecured interest debt)
(4) Includes estimated Natgasoline potential incremental EBITDA of $300MM, assuming full facility capacity (5,000 metric tons/day or 1.75MM metric tons/year),
a methanol price (U.S. contract price) of $420/metric ton, an EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and excluding any non-recurring costs and expenses related to the construction of the Natgasoline facility
Balance SheetAcquisition of Natgasoline Temporarily Increased Net Debt Position
(4)
Natgas Expansion
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CEL’s Financial Policy
36
CEL is committed to maintaining a prudent and conservative financial policy with strong liquidity and a moderate leverage profile
throughout the methanol business cycle and additional Natgasoline EBITDA expected to start Q2 2018
• Total Leverage (Total Debt / Adj. EBITDA): Company is expected to return to below maximum 4.0x with
completion of Natgasoline from Q2 2018 onwards with target range ~2.0x and a Total Asset Base of $5.5bn
• Total Net Leverage (Total Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA): Company is expected to return to to below maximum 3.0x
with completion of Natgasoline from 2Q 2018 onwards with target ~1.5x
Leverage profile
• CEL had $190MM of cash on hand as of 31/12/2017
• Operating Cash flow is primary source of liquidity
• $200MM of operating cash flow in trough markets in 2016 and 2017 for MHTL only with significant upside
in today’s pricing and production environment
• MHTL Maintenance capex on average around $80MM p.a.
• Natgasoline is estimated to contribute a potential incremental $200MM to group operating cash flow(1) p.a.
Liquidity
• No significant expansion capex required for Natgasoline(2)
• Dividends: Strictly in line with dividend baskets. No dividend for 2018Capital investments
• De-facto hedging on majority of producing assets via gas price formula and price-related expensesHedging
Notes:
(1) Assuming full facility capacity (5,000 metric tons/day or 1.75MM metric tons/year), a methanol price (U.S. contract price) of $420/metric ton, an EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and
excluding any non-recurring costs and expenses related to the construction of the Natgasoline facility
(2) $25MM of committed contingency still unfunded (thereof 50% CEL commitment)
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Appendix
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CEL – History
38
1994
• The Trinidad & Tobago Methanol Company divested significant stake to Ferrostaal,
Proman and Helm
1996
• The TTMC II Methanol plant commenced production (Methanol production
capacity increased to 1.6MM metric tons p.a.)
1997
1999
• Production start
• TTMC formed
• CMC plant with CL Financial, Ferrostaal and Proman
1984-1994 Trinidad established as methanol producer
• Remaining shares of Trinidad & Tobago Methanol Company were acquired by CL
Financial, Ferrostaal, Proman and Helm
• Divestiture to Ferrostaal, Proman and Helm
• TTMC II Plant commenced production
• MHTL formation
1994-1999 Expanding the business
2005 World’s largest stand alone methanol plant constructed
• MHTL was formed to consolidate shareholding and overall management
1993
• The CMC Methanol Plant commenced production with first private sector venture
sponsors CL Financial, Ferrostaal and Proman
1988
• The Trinidad & Tobago Methanol Company was established as an independent
state-owned enterprise
1984
• Production reached in Trinidad’s first methanol plant TTMC I (production capacity - 400,000 metric tons p.a.) with methanol shipments in May 1984
2003
• MHTL group restructuring - Consolidated Energy Limited is formed between
Ferrostaal, Helm and Proman
2005• M5000 plant completed. Still largest stand alone methanol plant in the world
2010• AUM Project is completed allowing MHTL to diversify into fertilizers and melamine
• CEL acquired Ferrostaal’s stake (resulting in 75 (-1 share) /25
(+1 share) shareholding in CEL between Proman and Helm)
• In 2014 CEL acquired CL Financial stake resulting in 100%
ownership
Majority Buyout MHTL
1998
• MIV Methanol plant commenced operations (capacity above 2MM metric tons
p.a.)
2012• Proman and Helm acquire all of Ferrostaal’s interest in CEL
• CL Financial collapsed which led to governmental control of
CL Financial’s shares in MHTL
2009 Financial Crisis
2009• CL Financial collapses which leads to governmental control of CL Financial´s shares
• Through the utilization of purge gases from the other
methanol plants, it increased its production capacity by
5,400 metric tons of methanol per day
1
2
3
5
4
• Investment in the U.S. into G2X for further growth and
diversification. The Natgasoline plant will be largest
methanol plant in the U.S. with 1.75MM metric tons / year
U.S. Expansion with Natgasoline6
2014• CEL’s 56.6% buyout from CL Financial
2016• Investment in largest U.S. methanol plant Natgasoline expected production in Q2
2018
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CEL Organisational Structure
Proman Holding AG(Switzerland)
Consolidated
Energy AG(Switzerland)
75% -1 share 25% +1 share
Helm AG(Germany)
N2000(Trinidad)
Methanol Holdings
(Trinidad) Limited (Trinidad)
Consolidated Energy
Finance(Lux)
CNC(Trinidad)
100% 100%
30%
30%
Restricted Group
OPAG
(Barbados)
Consolidated
Energy Limited
(Barbados)
100%
100%
OMC(Oman)
26.08%
G2X Group
(incl. Pampa, TRDC)(USA)
Natgasoline LLC(USA)
67.7%
50%
”Stakes”
CEL is a Multi-Asset, Global and Diversified Producer of Methanol, UAN, Ammonia and Melamine
CEL Group Structure
HoldingOperations
(Consolidated)
Operations
(Minority Stakes)Finance (Bonds)
DeNovo (Gas Supply)
(Trinidad)
90%
39
FS Petrochemicals
Ltd.
(St Kitts)
100%
Notes:
(1) As of 31.12.2017
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Worldwide Operations
CEL Today – Global Operations and Services
40Notes:
(1) 50% stake in project
(2) Current ownership as of 31.12.2017
G2X (68% Ownership(2))
• G2X represents CEL's U.S. hub
• Existing methanol production
(Pampa Fuels) and future
methanol project (Big Lake Fuels)
• Cost-advantageous proprietary
supply of natural gas via G2X
Resources
N2000 (30% Ownership)
• Ammonia plant and
storage facility in
Trinidad
• 700k metric tons
annual production
capacity
CNC (30% Ownership)
• Ammonia plant and
storage facility in
Trinidad
• 700k metric tons annual
production capacity
OMC (26% Ownership)
• JV with Oman Methanol Holding
Company in Sohar, Oman
• Strategic minority stake with
option to majority
• 1.1MM metric tons annual
production capacity
Natgasoline (50% Ownership) (1)
• 1.75MM metric tons/year methanol plant in
construction with production start expected
for Q4 2017
• Largest and most profitable U.S. methanol
plant upon start of production
Legend:
Houston, TX
Beaumont, TX
Trinidad
Oman
Storage
Product Flow
MHTL (100% Ownership)
• 2nd largest producer of methanol in the
world
• 4.1MM metric tons methanol via 5
plants
• 700k metric tons anhydrous ammonia
• 1.5MM metric tons UAN
• 60k metric tons melamine
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Methanol Has a Broad Set of Applications
41
2016 Global Methanol Demand by Derivative
Formaldehyde
28.2%
DMT
0.6%
Acetic Acid
8.9%
MTBE/TAME
11.1%Methyl
Methacrylate
1.9%
Gasoline
Blending
9.5%
Biodiesel
3.8%
Dimethyl
Ether
8.4%
Methylamines
3.1%
Chlorometha
nes
2.2%
MTO/MTP
12.4%
CTO/CTP
0.0%
Solvents
4.2%
Source:
Third party data – Jan 2017
Note:
DMT: Dimethyl terephthalate; MTBE: Methyl tert-butyl ether; TAME: tert-amyl methyl ether;
MTO/MTP: Methanol to Olefins/Propylene; CTO/CTP: Coal to Olefins/Propylene;
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How CEL Products Fit Together
42
Air
(source of nitrogen)
Ammonia Urea
UAN
(Urea Ammonium
Nitrate)
Melamine
Synthesis gas Methanol
Durable resins and
plastics, car paints
Intermediate
chemical for broad
variety of uses
Fertilizer
Natural gas
Water
Fertilizer
Notes:
(1) CEL’s production outputs marked in green
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43
MHTL’s Methanol Complex MHTL Methanol Production
CEL – Production and Distribution Overview
Plant Year
commissioned
Annual Capacity
(Metric Tons)
TTMC I 1984 480,000
CMC 1993 525,000
TTMC II 1996 575,000
MIV 1998 575,000
M5000 2005 1,890,000
MHTL’s AUM Complex MHTL Fertilizer Products
• Melamine: 60,000 metric tons p.a.
• Urea Ammonium Nitrate 32 % Solution
(UAN-32): 1.5MM metric tons p.a.
• Ammonia 647,500 metric tons p.a. (intermediate product used as
feedstock)
• Dedicated fleet of fourteen ocean-going vessels, some of which possess capacity in excess of 48,000 DWT with twelve contracted via Proman
Shipping AG
• Owns and operates storage facilities located near its production facilities in Trinidad and some additional storage in North America, South America
and Europe
Distribution Infrastructure
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Overview of Trinidad and Tobago
T&T Key Facts:
• Trinidad and Tobago is an established petroleum economy with a
significant petrochemical industry
• Leading petroleum producer (34% of GDP) and largest natural
gas producer in South and Central America since 2009
• Significant gas reserves and resources
12.9 TCF of proven reserves
12.0 TCF of probable and possible reserves
31.2 TCF of exploration resources
• One of the largest exporter of methanol and ammonia in the
world
• Regional financial centre with a stable economic climate
• Credit rating of BBB+ (S&P)
Location Map
GDP Split (2016)
44
Capital Port of Spain
Population (2016) 1.37MM
Political system Parliamentary Democracy
GDP (2016) $ 21bn
Country credit rating (2017) Ba1-Stable (Moody’s) BBB+ Stable (S&P)
Rank for GDP per capita (PPP) 44th globally
Stable Economy with a Worldclass Petroleum Industry
Point
Lisas
Port of Spain
Figure 1: T&T location (Zoom Out) Figure 2: T&T location (Zoom In)
Petroleum Industry
34%
Transport and Storage
1%
Manufacturing
5%
Services
60%
Total GDP: $ 21bn
$ 7.1bn
T&T has a hydrocarbon resource dependent economy with the Oil & Gas
sector accounting for approximately 34% of GDP
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T&T: Established Energy Producer
45
• Several IOCs present in T&T with
active upstream operations – BP,
BHP Billiton, Shell, Repsol, Perenco,
Chevron and EOG Resources with
BP’s Trinidad operation accounting for 20% of BP’s global gas production
• 8 of the world’s top 10 oilfield services companies have operations
in T&T
• Leading downstream players present
in T&T – Atlantic LNG, Proman,
Methanex, PCS Nitrogen, Yara,
Mitsubishi and Koch Industries
• Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited
(PPGPL) is one of the largest natural
gas liquids processing complexes in
the Western Hemisphere with a
processing capacity of almost 2
BCFD, and an output capacity of
70,000 bbl/d of NGL
Energy Map of Trinidad and Tobago
Ammonia # 1
Methanol # 1
LNG # 6
Energy Map of Trinidad & Tobago Presence of Major Energy Players
Gasfield(s)
Venezuela gasfield(s)
Oilfield(s)
Global Export Ranking
Current Demand 4,402 MMCFD
2017 Production 3,366 MMCFD
2016 Production 3,277 MMCFD
2015 Production 3,441 MMCFD
Natural Gas Landscape
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MHTL Production & Sales Figures 2015/ 2016/ 2017
Quarterly MD&A Methanol Operations
Q4 2017 with strong production
increase compared to first two
quarters in 2017
1
METHANOL OPERATIONS 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(2) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(3)
Weighted Average Methanol Market
Price$/MT 406 419 392 327 257 237 267 309 424 415 370 384
Production kMT 830 812 820 877 883 694 486 483 582 585 700 721
Sales kMT 853 801 771 855 828 832 548 555 761 646 752 706
Gross Revenues $MM 254 230 240 219 158 142 120 156 251 205 212 249
Net Revenues $MM 223 203 214 182 119 100 90 122 220 173 180 207
Gross Profit $MM 57 45 75 50 16 (1) 2 82 32 23 48 76
EBITDA $MM 75 57 87 64 31 14 17 113(2) 51 40 66 94
MHTL methanol operations with strongly recovered methanol EBITDA
2
Prices remained just below the $
400/MT mark but getting firmer
46
2
1
3
3
Notes:
(1) Q4 2015 financial figures adjusted to incorporate year end audit adjustments
(2) Q4 2016 financial figures adjusted to incorporate year end audit adjustments. Q4 2016 included $75.3MM of release of provisions
(3) Q4 2017 financial figures adjusted to incorporate year end audit adjustments. Q4 2017 included $7.5MM adjustments due to one-off costs and release of provisions
Strong EBITDA in Q4 2017 due to
increased production volumes as
well as sales volumes and increased
prices
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AUM OPERATIONS 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(1)
Weighted Average UAN Market Price $/MT 256 225 212 203 166 170 137 139 155 154 129 149
UAN Production kMT 359 335 356 335 371 320 214 331 333 345 339 255
UAN Sales kMT 398 306 303 385 361 341 208 331 352 325 348 278
AUM Gross Revenues $MM 127 73 74 78 68 64 49 58 67 64 56 49
AUM Net Revenues $MM 111 57 62 62 52 46 37 43 50 48 41 33
AUM Gross Profit $MM 9 (9) (2) (29) (6) (9) (22) (9) (7) (10) (13) (27)
AUM EBITDA $MM 33 14 21 1 18 14 10 22 18 15 13 (7)
Quarterly MD&A AUM Operations
3
2 Low UAN production for the 4th quarter due to
now resolved plant incident, with
corresponding temporary reduction in sales
MHTL Production & Sales Figures 2015/ 2016/ 2017
1 UAN prices slightly increased in the
course of Q4 2017
47
2
1
3
MHTL AUM operations with continued solid performance, despite low market price environment
Notes:
(1) Q4 2015, Q4 2016 and Q4 2017 financial figures adjusted to incorporate year end audit adjustments
Negative EBITDA due to lower
production and repair costs
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48
Financial Reconciliation
EBITDA Bridge and Reconciliation Commentary
FY
2016
FY
2017
In USD MM
CEL Stated EBITDA (as per Financial Statements) 215.3 218.5
Less: Share of Profit from Associates (Non-Cash) (10.5) (31.2)
Add: Net Other Expenses (Admin. & Acquisitions Related) 35.0 95.9
Consolidated Asset EBITDA (MHTL) 239.8 283.2
Add: Dividends Received from JV Stakes (Cash) 18.1 41.4
CEL Adj. EBITDA
(Consolidated Asset EBITDA +
Cash Dividends from JVs)
257.9 324.6
• Includes G2X startup expenses,
acquisition related costs and
TRDC loss from sale
• Includes Dividends Received and
Proceeds from Reduction in
Investments in Associated
Companies
FY
2016
FY
2017
In USD MM
MHTL Operating Profit (as per Financial Statements) 55.3 104.0
MHTL Depreciation (as per Financial Statements) 184.5 171.6
MHTL EBITDA 239.8 275.6
1
2
1
2
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49
Balance Sheet Reconciliation
FY
2016
FY
2017
CEL in USD MM
Cash 258.0 171.5
Restricted Cash 28.3 18.8
Quoted debt security 29.0 0.0
Consolidated Cash 315.3 190.3
FY
2016
FY
2017
MHTL in USD MM
7 year secured term loan (TLB) – Fair Value 300.1 288.6
Discount 20.8 16.6
7 year secured term loan (TLB) – Carrying Amount 279.3 272.0
Revolving credit facility 293.3 260.0
MHTL Secured Debt (Revolver + TLB) 572.6 542.8
FY
2016
FY
2017
CEL in USD MM
Total Notes in issue 1,231.4 1,279.2
Discount on Senior Fixed Rate Notes and Issuance Costs 18.6 19.6
CEL Bond 1,250.0 1,298.8
• As shown in the Financial
Statements
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Key Balance Sheet Items Reconciliation Commentary