Commuting to Work in the Metropolitan Washington Region

Some Preliminary Results from the 2000 Census

Robert E. Griffiths

Cooperative Forecasting and Data Subcommittee Meeting

June 10, 2003

TPB Item #12

2

Worker-Related Employment Growthin the Metropolitan Washington Region

• Overall, more than 2.5 million workers now work in the metropolitan region.

• The increase of 170,000 workers between 1990 and 2000 is about one-third of the 600,000 worker increase experienced between 1980 and 1990.

Number of Workers Workingin Washington Region

1.8

2.42.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1980 1990 2000

Wor

ker

s (i

n M

illi

ons)

3

Change in Number of Workers by Place of Work

• Employment sites in the core jurisdictions of DC, Arlington and Alexandria collectively lost 60,000 workers between 1990 and 2000.

• The greatest growth in new workers was in the inner suburbs (Fairfax +98,000, Montgomery +29,000).

• In the outer suburbs, Loudoun (+39,000), Prince William (+16,000), and Frederick County, MD (+21,000) all grew.

Workers by Place of Work

353

1263

917

254

1131

978

0 500 1000 1500

OuterSuburbs

InnerSuburbs

CoreJurisdictions

Workers (in Thousands)

19902000

4

Change in Number of Workers by Place of Residence

• In the core jurisdictions, the number of workers living in DC (-43,500) decreased, while the number of workers living in Arlington (+7,200) and Alexandria (+5,400) increased.

• In the inner suburbs, the number of workers living in Fairfax (+47,000) and Montgomery (+26,000) increased, while the number of workers living in Prince George’s County (-17,500) decreased.

• The greatest growth in the region’s workforce by place of residence was in the outer suburbs, Loudoun (+42,000), Prince William (+28,000), Stafford (+15,000), and Frederick Co. MD (+21,500).

Workers by Place of Residence

516

1398

454

387

1343

485

0 500 1000 1500

OuterSuburbs

InnerSuburbs

CoreJurisdictions

Workers (in Thousands)

19902000

5

Change in Number of Federal and Military Workers by Place of Residence

• The decline in the number workers working at employment sites in the core area jurisdictions and the fewer number of workers living in DC and Prince George’s appears to be related to the down-sizing of the Federal government between 1990 and 2000.

• The region had 40,000 fewer federal civilian workers and 18,000 fewer military personnel in 2000 than in 1990. The District also had 12,000 fewer local government employees than in 1990.

Federal and Military Workersby Place of Residence

76

234

86

72

270

112

0 100 200 300

OuterSuburbs

InnerSuburbs

CoreJurisdictions

Workers (in Thousands)

19902000

6

Change in SOV, Carpool and Transit Commuters1990 to 2000

• Workers commuting in Single Occupancy Vehicles (SOV) increased by 14% between 1990 and 2000, while the number of carpool and transit commuters decreased by 10% and 6% respectively.

• These commuting mode changes also appear to be related to shifts in commuting destinations in the region between 1990 and 2000.

Commuters by Mode of Transportation Used

277

315

1588

295

349

1394

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Transit

Carpool

SOV

Commuters (in Thousands)

19902000

7

How Census Data is used in Transportation Planning

• Extremely useful, comprehensive data source– Large sample of persons and households (1 in 6)

– Provides small area neighborhood level data (block groups)

• Used to check and update land activity forecasts– Round 6.3 incorporates many Census 2000 updates

• Used to check travel demand forecasting models– Jurisdiction to jurisdiction commuting flows

– Commuting mode shares

8

Limitations of Census Data in Transportation Planning

• Only provides information on worker commuting flows.– Provides information on worker flows, not commuting trips– Only 2 in 10 daily trips are commuting trips– Provides information on usual commuting mode, thus misses

occasional carpoolers and transit commuters– Does not account for multiple job-holding

• Census data reflect only a specific time period.– 10-year period of time April 1990 to April 2000– Five-year period 1995 to 2000 much different than 1990 to 1995– Much has already changed since April 2000

• DC employment growth• High-Tech slump in N. Virginia

• Only tells us where we’ve been, not where we are going.

9

The new Census data also enables us to assess impacts of regional growth and transportation changes on low-income and minority populations

• The Brookings Institution published a report in 1999 on the challenges of growth in the Washington Region that states:

“The Washington region is divided by race, income, jobs, and opportunity, with the Eastern half of the region carrying the area’s burden of poverty and social distress while the Western half enjoys most of the region’s fruits of prosperity.”

• 1990 and 2000 Census and COG data was tabulated based on the “East-West Divide” discussed in the “Region Divided” report

Frederick County

Loudoun County

Fairfax County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Prince William County

District of

Columbia

Arlington Bowie

Alexandria

Rockville

Manassas

Fairfax

Gaithersburg

#

Falls Church

#

Takoma Park

#

College Park

#

Greenbelt

N

EW

S

5 0 5 10 Miles

The "East-West Divide"Based on The Brookings Institution "A Region Divided"

East-West Divide

TPB Planning Area

10

The “Race and Poverty” Divide

• In both 1990 and 2000 the Eastern and Western sides of the region had very different racial, ethnic, and poverty-related characteristics

2000 Census: Race, Ethnicity and Poverty

African-American

Asian White Hispanic Below the Poverty

Line

Eastern Side 80% 20% 20% 36% 60%

Western Side 20% 80% 80% 64% 40%

11

The “Jobs and People” Divide

Growth Between 1990 and 2000

1%

6%

20%

21%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Employment

Population

Percent Change

Western

Eastern• The Western side of the

region gained population at 3 times the rate as in the Eastern side.

• Job growth in the Western part of the region outpaced job growth in the Eastern part by 20 to 1.

Employment data is from Round 6.2 Cooperative Forecasts.

12

The Impact of “the Divide”on Commuting

• SOV commuters increased 2% in the Eastern side of the region—but increased 18% in the Western side

• Carpooling decreased 17% in the Eastern side and decreased 6% in the Western side

• Transit commuters dropped 16% in the Eastern side (largely due to the loss of workers) and increased 4% in the Western areas

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Change in Commuting 1990 to 2000 Eastern Versus Western

-16%

-17%

2%

4%

-6%

18%

Transit

Carpool

SOV

Western

Eastern