community scale energy transformation...vehicle batteries (caebat) tool •co-optimizing fuels and...

Community Scale Energy Transformation

Elizabeth Doris, Principal Program Laboratory Manager: State, Local and Tribal Programs

NCSL Smart Communities Foundation Planning Meeting

May 9, 2018

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 2

Transforming Energy through Science

NREL advances the science and engineering of energy

efficiency, sustainable transportation, and renewable

power technologies and provides the knowledge to

integrate and optimize energy systems.

3

40 Years of Clean Energy Research

Nearly 1,700 employees, including more

than 300 early-career researchers and

visiting scientists

World-class facilities, renowned

technology experts

Nearly 750 partnerships

Campus operates as a living laboratory

National economic impact of $872 million

annually


Conceptualizing Transformation


Load Modernization:

What will people do?

Distributed Energy:

How will local impacts

materialize?

Bulk Power Systems:

What are priority

investments?

Variables for the Future (and the now)

6

Advanced Scenario Interaction

Advanced technologies• Integrated analytic cross-sector and scale tools • Integrated Virtual Exploration • Interactive Systems Dynamics Simulation• Immersive Computational Steering

End Users Will: • Examine energy system designs under alternative scenarios• Experiment with alternative roadmaps to transition from the “as built” system to a

future system


Also in two dimensional


Using RE to Extend Probability of Surviving Outage

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Pro

bab

ility

of

Surv

ivin

g O

uta

ge [

%]

Length of Outage [Days]

Base case

Generator Solar PV Storage Lifecycle Cost Outage

1. Base case 2.5 MW - - $20 million 5 days

2. Lowest cost solution 2.5 MW 625 kW 175 kWh $19.5 million 6 days

3. Proposed system 2.5 MW 2 MW 500 kWh $20 .1million 9 days

Lowest cost solution

Proposed system (given site goals & constraints)

NREL evaluated thousands of random grid outages and durations throughout the year and compared number of hours the site could survive with a diesel generator and fixed fuel supply vs. generator augmented with PV and battery


Traditional Legislative Actions

Krasko, V., and E. Doris. (2012). Strategic Sequencing. Energy Policy


• Enabling the Market: legalize PPAs, provide incentives, invest in a workforce

• Building Codes + Training Programs

• Focusing on underserved communities

• Prioritize resilient system development

They Still Work!


Technical Spot Support

NREL brings world class decision grade information to jurisdictions: • Six currently available programs by jurisdiction and

technology type• Over 1,800 completed requests since 2009• Impact measurement built in• Integrated into measured capacity building pipeline

Jurisdictions inquiries inform research agenda.• City carbon abatement potential (new!)• Policy development strategies (Energy Policy)• National Community Solar Guidebook (2012)

https://www.nrel.gov/technical-assistance/states.html

www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Thank you! Twitter: @NREL_conduit

https://www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/state_local_governments/blog/

[email protected](303) 384-7489

mailto:[email protected]

www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Supplemental


Cities-LEAP: Number of Housing Units by Housing Type, CT


What about using less?Figure 8. Electric Efficiency Supply Curve for Colorado

Source: Wilson, E., et al. Electric End-Use Energy Efficiency Potential in the U.S. Single-Family Housing Stock. January 2017. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/65667.pdf

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/65667.pdf


ResStock providesactionable results forstates and cities

- 5,000 10,000 15,000

Per-HouseElectricity Savings

[kWh/yr] - 1 2 3 4

Upgrade Electric Furnace (andAC) to High-Eff. Heat Pump at…

Drill-and-Fill Wall Cavities

Ductless Heat Pump (displaceselectric baseboard)

LED Lighting

Smart Thermostat

Upgrade Electric WH to HPWH(80 gal)

Duct Sealing & Insulating

Foundation Wall Ins.(Bsmt, Crawl)

R-49 Attic Ins.

Air Sealing

Statewide Electricity Savings

[TWh/yr]Top 10 Upgrades

Carbon Emissions

10.6 million tons per year

Utility bills

1.5billion dollars per year

Cost-effective savings for Virginia

Contacts:

Eric [email protected] Polly [email protected]

Summary Article



http://e4thefuture.org/blog/nrels-resstock-analysis-takes-large-scale-residential-energy-upgrade-modeling-to-a-new-level/


Policy and Program RE Impacts: dGen

The dGen family of models forecasts state, utility, or city-specific customer adoption of distributed generation technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial entities.


Dat

a (P

lan

nin

g,

M&

V)

ResStock(Eric Wilson)

What are the measures that are likely to yield highest savings in my jurisdiction?

Cities-LEAP (Megan Day)

What is the sector level breakdown of energy and emission data for my jurisdiction (or sub jurisdictions to me)? What is the makeup of low income housing in my jurisdiction?

SIR Calcs(Monisha Shah)

What is the savings to investment ratio for solar in my jurisdiction?

Too

ls (

Pro

gram

imp

lem

enta

tio

n,

un

der

stan

din

g tr

adeo

ffs)

SAM(Nathan Blair)

What are the costs and outputs of renewable facilities under different financial structures?

JEDI(David Keyser)

What are the jobs and other economic development impacts of renewable energy projects in my jurisdiction?

Community Solar Business Case (Amy Hollander)

What are the costs and benefits to various audiences of a single community solar project?

CREST(Paul Schwabe)

What incentives/policies are necessary to improve system economics?

dGen (Pieter Gagnon)

What are the market penetration impacts of different policy scenarios?

You can reach NREL staff listed via email: [email protected]. To navigate tools, use [email protected]

https://energy.gov/eere/cities-leading-through-energy-analysis-and-planning

https://energy.gov/eere/articles/new-analysis-shows-national-potential-solar-power-low-income-communities

sam.nrel.gov

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/

http://www.elevateenergy.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/Community-Solar-Business-Case-Tool.xlsm/

https://financere.nrel.gov/finance/content/crest-cost-energy-models

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/



Renewable GenerationSolar PVWindBiomass, etc.

Energy StorageBatteriesThermal storageWater tanks

Conventional GenerationElectric GridFuel SupplyConventional Generators

Dispatchable TechnologiesHeating and CoolingWater Treatment

GoalsMinimize Cost

Net ZeroResiliency

EconomicsFinancial Parameters

Technology CostsIncentives

Utility CostsEnergy Charges

Demand ChargesEscalation Rate

OperationsOptimal Dispatch

REoptEnergy Planning PlatformTechno-economic Optimization

REopt Inputs and Output

Energy Conservation Measures

Technologies Technology MixTechnology Size

Project Economics CapEx, OpExNet Present Value


ENERGY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION FACILITY

High-

Performance

Computing

Credible Data/Information • Peregrine computer, 2.25 Petaflops

• Use across programs continues to expand

• Immersive, interactive visualization provides insight into complex systems


The cost of solar energy has fallen 96% and now stands at less than a dollar a watt for solar module, pre-installation.

Globally, solar energy grew by more than 50% each of the past five years (2011-2015).

SOLAR RESEARCH

Market Impact

• Costs: From less than $2 to $6/W

• Levelized cost of energy at 7-16 cents/kWhr

• Solar provides nearly 1% of U.S. power generation

• U.S. installed capacity at 14.8 GW

• Solar power employs more than 260,000 U.S. workers

• U.S. forecast (through 2040) is for nearly 40 GW of PV capacity in pipeline


Path to New Solar Technologies, Materials

Key Research Areas

• Boosting efficiency of commercial modules – high-efficiency thin films improve carrier lifetime

• Increasing cell efficiency –research in silicon tandem cells improves the best cell efficiencies by 10%-30%

• Improving applications for flat-plate and low-concentration technologies – 1- and 2-junction III-V cells lower growth cost

• Cutting capital investment –“kerfless” silicon wafers and cells offer comparable performance

• Providing rapid growth –perovskite technology has efficiency of more than 20%


Innovations have driven down the cost of wind energy by 66% between 2009 and 2015, enabling industry success.

WIND RESEARCH

Market Impact

• Costs: 4-7 cents/kWh

• Installed capital cost between $1,300 and $1,900/kW

• U.S. ranks second in world for installed capacity at 76 GW

• Wind provides about 5.6% of U.S. electricity

• Wind power employs just more than 100,000 Americans

• More than 500 wind-related manufacturing facilities in the United States


Path to Performance Improvement, Cost Reduction

Key Research Areas • Optimizing wind plants – using

individual wind turbine controls to improve performance

• Eliminating transportationconstraints – developing process for on-site production of turbine blades

• Improving operations and reliability –modeling wake effects from wind turbines and their impact

• Increasing offshore and distributed wind technologies – focusing on new concepts, materials, and components

• Integrating with the grid – using HPC to gain insights on higher wind generation in power grid

• Accelerating market impacts – looking at lightweight carbon fiber materials for turbine blades


R&D breakthroughs provide a range of efficient, high-performance, and market-viable transportation options for consumers and industry.

Market Impact

• Per capita consumer fuel economy savings of $600/year

• A potential annual supply of more than 30 billion gallons of fuel from domestic biomass feedstocks.

• Electric vehicle battery cost 70% less than 2008

• Fuel efficiency standards with potential for $170 billion cost savings for commercial truck operators

• Fuel cell electric vehicle range of more than 300 miles

VEHICLES RESEARCH


Path to Sustainable Transportation Technologies

Key Research Areas • Reducing expense of battery development –

Computer-Aided Engineering for Electric-Drive Vehicle Batteries (CAEBAT) tool

• Co-optimizing fuels and engines R&D to maximize performance, efficiency, and compatibility with existing infrastructure

• Increasing sustainable mobility connected and autonomous transportation innovations for intelligent, efficient, integrated network of travelers, services, and environments

• Improving efficiency of heavy-duty vehicles –commercial truck fuel, engine, thermal management, and powertrain innovation

• Demonstrating electrification of vehicles –Energy storage for plug-in electric and fuel cell electric vehicles; power electronics; and infrastructure R&D to boost efficiency, performance, and market viability


NREL expertise and technical innovations have developed physics-based modeling and advanced analytics to greatly improve building energy efficiency and so contribute to a doubling of U.S. energy productivity (dollars of GDP per unit of energy) during the past four decades.

BUILDINGS RESEARCH

2020+ – Zero-energy districts (scale)2000s – Zero-energy buildings/campuses

(technology demonstration)1990s – Codes and standards1980s – Modeling

Incr

easi

ng

sca

le


Key Research Areas

• Improving heat transfer in buildings –advancements in new nanomaterial synthesis for insulation materials and innovations improve heat transfer in the building envelope and equipment/services

• Reinvigorating our inner cities –research in zero-energy buildings and districts provides more efficient buildings that boost U.S. economic competitiveness

• Strengthening the U.S. electric grid – by applying advanced analytics for buildings-to-grid research, NREL’s new software applications streamline the $8 billion/year utility energy efficiency incentive program

Path to Optimal Energy Efficiency for Buildings

community scale energy transformation...vehicle batteries (caebat) tool •co-optimizing fuels and...

Documents