commodity research report 30 november 2015 ways2capital

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Page 1: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital
Page 2: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31 DEC 2015 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94

COPPER 29 FEB 2015 318 316 314 312 310 308 306 304 302

CRUDE OIL 18 DEC 2015 2890 2870 2850 2830 2810 2790 2770 2750 2730

GOLD 05 FEB 2015 25350

25300 25250 25200 25150 25100 25050 25000 24950

LEAD 31 DEC 2015 112.50

111.40 110.40 109.40 108.40 107.40 106.40 105.30 104

NATURAL GAS 28 DEC 2015 153 152 151 150 148 147 146 145 144

NICKEL 31 DEC 2015 615 610 605 600 595 590 585 580 575

SILVER 04 MAR 2015 34700

34600 34500 34400 34300 34200 34100 34000 33900

ZINC 31 DEC 2015 108.50

107.50 106.50 105.50 104.50 103.50 102.50 101.50 100

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31 DEC 2015 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90

COPPER 29 FEB 2015 323 320 317 314 311 308 305 302 299

CRUDE OIL 18 DEC 2015 2940 2910 2880 2850 2820 2790 2760 2730 2700

GOLD 05 FEB 2015 25750 25550 25400 25250 25100 25080 24950 24800 24600

LEAD 31 DEC 2015 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100

NATURAL GAS 28 DEC 2015 158 156 154 152 149 147 145 143 141

NICKEL 31 DEC 2015 628 625 612 602 594 584 570 553 540

SILVER 04 MAR 2015 35100 34900 34700 34500 34300 34100 33900 33700 33500

ZINC 31 DEC 2015 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96

Page 3: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 25100 TGT 24950 SL 25253

SELL ZINC DEC BELOW 103.30 TGT 102.30 SL 105.20

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL GOLD DEC BELOW 25261 TGT 24963 SL 25571 (ALMOST ACHEIVED TGT , MADE LOW OF

24965)

FOREX✍ DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26 DEC 2015 67.8

0

67.60 67.35 67.20 67.05 66.90 66.80 66.60 66.35

GBPINR 26 DEC 2015 101.

50

101.35 101.20 101.05 99.90 99.75 99.60 99.40 99.20

EURINR 26 DEC 2015 71.9

0

71.70 71.50 71.30 71.10 70.90 70.70 70.50 70.20

JPYINR 26 DEC 2015 55.1

0

55 54.90 54.80 54.70 54.55 54.45 54.30 54.15

FOREX✍ WEEKLY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26 DEC 2015 68.40

68 67.50 67.25 67 66.85 66.60 66.30 65.90

GBPINR 26 DEC 2015 102 101.70 101.40 101.10 101 99.95 99.60 99.25 98.90

EURINR 26 DEC 2015 72.35

72 71.70 71.40 71.10 70.85 70.55 70.10 69.75

JPYINR 26 DEC 2015 55.50

55.30 55.10 54.90 54.70 54.50 54.30 54.10 53.90

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 100.76 TGT 100.10 SL 101.35

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 100.45 TGT 99.85 SL 101.10 (MADE LOW OF 100)

Page 4: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18 DEC 2015 644 635 626 621 617 612 608 599 590

SYBEANIDR 18 DEC 2015 4109 4030 3951 3902 3872 3823 3793 3714 3635

RMSEED 18 DEC 2015 4966 4876 4786 4735 4696 4645 4606 4516 4426

JEERAUNJHA 18 DEC 2015 16803 16563 16323 16206 16083 15966 15843 15603 15363

CHANA 18 DEC 2015 5260 5175 5090 5046 5005 4961 4920 4836 4750

CASTORSEED 18 DEC 2015 4037 3978 3919 3891 3860 3832 3801 3742 3683

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18 DEC 2015 684 660 636 626 621 602 588 564 540

SYBEANIDR 18 DEC 2015 4361 4193 4025 3939 3857 3771 3689 3521 3353

RMSEED 18 DEC 2015 5378 5149 4920 4802 4691 4573 4462 4233 4004

JEERAUNJHA 18 DEC 2015 17856 17241 16626 16358 16011 15743 15396 14781 14166

CHANA 18 DEC 2015 5518 5336 5154 5078 4972 4896 4790 4608 4426

CASTORSEED 18 DEC 2015 5301 4844 4387 4125 3930 3668 3473 3016 2559

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 16550 TGT 16900 SL 16200

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 15900 TGT 16200 SL 15450 (TGT ACHEIVED)

Page 5: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

✍ PRECIOUS METAL

✍ Gold

Gold futures were down by Rs 37 to Rs 25,244 per 10 gram today as participants trimmed their

positions. In futures trading, gold for delivery in December traded Rs 37, or 0.15% lower at Rs

25,244 per 10 gram in a business turnover of 350 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange.On

similar lines, the metal for delivery in far-month February next year shed Rs 33, or 0.13%, to

Rs 25,390 per 10 gram in 32 lots. Market analysts said the fall in gold futures was mostly in

tune with a weak trend overseas as expectations for an increase in US borrowing costs by the

end of the year buoyed the dollar, curbing the metal's appeal. Meanwhile, gold prices in global

market retreated as much as 0.4% to $1,068.36 an ounce in Singapore today.

Gold traded near its lowest in nearly six years on Thursday as the dollar held at multi-month

highs after US economic data reinforced expectations of an interest rate rise this year. The US

currency was also supported against the euro, weighing on dollar-denominated gold, as

European Central Bank officials said they were considering options such as whether to stagger

charges on banks hoarding cash or to buy more debt. The ECB meets next week. Spot gold was

unchanged on the day at $1,070.76 an ounce by 1505 GMT, not far off the $1,064.95 hit last

week, its lowest since February 2010. Liquidity was thin, with US markets are shut for the

Thanksgiving holiday. "The sense in the market is that the dollar will continue to rally due to

the prospect for QE (quantitative easing) in Europe and the hike in the US," Saxo Bank's head

of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said. "The focus is back to the negative correlation to a

stronger dollar and that's keeping gold under pressure." The dollar was up 0.1% against a

basket of major currencies, trading close to an eight-month high reached in the previous

session. "The dollar index is within reach of the multi-year high of 100.39. A break of this level

would put downside pressure on gold," ScotiaMocatta said in a note. Data on Wednesday

showed US manufacturing output in October rose well above economists' expectations while

business spending plans surged. Gold had seen some safe-haven bids earlier this week after

Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet, stoking tensions between the countries, but interest has

faded as investors' focus returned to a US rate rise. "People are preparing for the rate hike ... if

you look at strategists' recommendations of the top 20 trades, gold is not in there," MKS SA

senior vice president Bernard Sin said.

Page 6: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ Silver

Taking weak cues from overseas markets, silver prices dropped by Rs 202 to Rs 34,511 per kg

in futures trade today as participants cut down their bets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,

silver for delivery in far-month March 2016 was trading lower by Rs 202, or 0.58%, to Rs

34,511 per kg in a business turnover of 202 lots. Similarly, the white metal for delivery in

December declined by Rs 141, or 0.41%, to Rs 33,940 per kg in a business volume of 624 lots.

In the international market, silver fell 1.09% to $14.12 an ounce in Singapore today. Traders

said the fall in silver prices at futures trade was largely in step with a weak trend in precious

metals in global markets as expectations for a hike in US borrowing costs by the end of the year

boosted the dollar, curbing the metal's appeal.

✍ Crude oil

Crude oil futures prices rose 0.98% to Rs 2,888 per barrel today as speculators built bets amid a

firm trend in Asia. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December was

trading Rs 28, or 0.98%, higher at Rs 2,888 per barrel, with a business turnover of 14,010 lots.

The oil for January next year delivery contracts moved up by Rs 26, or 0.88%, to Rs 2,994 per

barrel, with a business volume of 302 lots. Marketmen said the rise in crude oil futures was

largely in tandem with a firming trend in Asia where it held above$43 a barrel after US

commercial crude supplies rose at a slower pace while concerns over the shooting down by

Turkey of a Russian warplane lingered. Data from the US Department of Energy released

yesterday showed that the country's commercial crude supplies rose by 1.0 million barrels for

the week ended November 20. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in

January was up eight cents at$43.12 while Brent crude for January gained seven cents to$46.24

on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

✍ Nickel

Nickel futures traded lower by 0.49% to Rs 611.40 per kg largely in tune with weak overseas

trend amid subdued demand from alloy-makers at domestic spot markets. In futures trading at

the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in December weakened by Rs 3, or 0.49%,

to Rs 611.40 per kg in a business turnover of 165 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in

November was down by Rs 2.80, or 0.46%, at Rs 605.20 per kg in 664 lots. Globally, nickel

dropped as much as 1.8% at the London Metal Exchange (LME). Analysts said apart from

Page 7: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

weak demand from alloy makers at domestic spot markets, a weak trend in the base metals

pack in global markets weighed on nickel prices at futures trade here.

✍ Copper

Copper futures soared 2 per cent in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and

speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amidst reports that China may

consider conducting an investigation into short-selling on local exchanges, following a request

from an industry group. Further, copper producers in China are planning to meet on Friday to

discuss possible production cuts and support prices, also lifting the industrial metal. China is

the world’s biggest consumer of copper, making up nearly half of global copper consumption.

Further, upbeat US demand outlook lifted the demand prospects for the metal as orders for

business equipment in the US climbed the most in three months, up 1.3 per cent in October

from September, signaling a pickup in capital spending in the world’s biggest economy.

Copper may retreat today’s as Thursday’s surge in prices leads to profit booking amidst rising

fears that a worsening China economic slowdown may curb metal demand. At the MCX,

Copper futures for November 2015 contract closed at Rs 306.4 per kg, up by 2.08 per cent after

opening at Rs 300.45, against the previous closing price of Rs 300.15. It touched the intra-day

high of Rs 311.05.

✍ Zinc

Zinc prices moved down 1.07% to Rs 106.55 per kg in futures market today as speculators

trimmed their positions, in tandem with a weak global trend. In futures trading at Multi

Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in December dropped Rs 1.15, or 1.07%, to Rs 106.55

per kg in a business turnover of 58 lots.Likewise, the metal for delivery in November was

trading Rs 1.10, or 1.03% lower at Rs 105.30 per kg in a business turnover of 22 lots.

Marketmen said weakness in most base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after

Chinese manufacturing weakened in July, mainly weighed on zinc prices in futures trade

✍ Lead

Lead prices fell 0.64% to Rs 108.45 per kg in futures trading today due to sluggish demand

from battery-makers in the spot market amid a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity

Page 8: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

Exchange, lead for delivery in November eased by 70 paise, or 0.64%, to Rs 108.45 per kg in a

business turnover of 124 lots. Metal for delivery in December shed 65 paise, or 0.59%, to Rs

109.25 per kg in three lots. Market analysts said besides sluggish demand from battery-makers

in the spot market amid a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange as

investors weigh the impact of possible cuts by Chinese producers, mainly kept pressure on lead

prices at futures trade.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ Mustard seed

Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.26 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on

account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard

Seed futures for December 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,633 per quintal, down by 0.26 per

cent, after opening at Rs. 4,600 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,645. It touched the

intra-day low of Rs. 4,580. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a

result of the weak demand for the commodity

The turmeric spot prices at the Erode market traded at Rs.9800 per quintal for Finger variety

and Rs. 9300 per quintal for Gattah variety unchanged from the previous close. The daily

arrivals reported at Sangli market were hovered in the range of 2000-3000 bags. Fresh demand

reported at the spot front supported the uptrend in turmeric prices. Taking cues from the spot

activities, the turmeric futures traded on a positive note on Thursday. The stock position of

turmeric at NCDEX-accredited warehouses as of 25 November 2015 was reported at 5093

metric tonnes

According to the derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have increased an

indication that the market is attracting large numbers of traders willing to open positions from

the long side and hold them.

✍ Castorseed

Castorseed prices fell by 0.78 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives

Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies

as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for December 2015

contract was trading at Rs. 4,029 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.78 per cent, after opening at Rs.

3,965 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,998. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,965

till the trading Aa 12.40 PM.

Page 9: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ Chana

Chana prices were down 1.31% to Rs 4,970 per quintal in futures trade on Monday as

participants reduced exposure, triggered by higher supplies in the spot markets.At National

Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in December eased by Rs 66, or

1.31%, to Rs 4,970 per quintal with an open interest of 51,040 lots.

On similar lines, the commodity for delivery in January 2016 traded lower by Rs 61, or 1.27%,

to Rs 4,710 per quintal in 28,820 lots.Fall in chana prices to higher supplies from producing

belts against weak trend at spot markets on fall in demand at prevailing levels.

✍ Jeera

Jeera prices closed lower by 1.05 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the

producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures

for December 2015 contract closed at Rs. 15,900 per quintal, down by 1.05 per cent, after

opening at Rs. 15,830 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,160. It touched the intra-day

low of Rs. 15,830. Commodity markets (Agri) were shut on November 25, 2015 on account of

Guru Nanak Jayanti, which commemorates the birth of the founder of the Sikh faith.

During Thursday’s trading session, jeera futures traded on a positive trend on cues from spot

markets. Hence, jeera Dec contract settled the day at Rs.16150 up by 1.2% Jeera spot prices at

the Unjha market hovering in the range of Rs.15150 – Rs.16000 per quintal. The total daily

arrivals reported at Unjha market hovering in the range of 4000- 6000 bags. However, prices at

the spot front remained steady due to limited export demand. Stock position of commodities at

NCDEX approved warehouse as on 25 November 2015 is 5774 MT.

Page 10: Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital

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