commodity monitor monthly mar2011

8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011

1/15

Markets performanceUnits Mar-2011 Mon to

dateYear to

date

Vegetable oils

SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 58.78 3.54% 1.80%CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,326.00 -4.21% -12.20%RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,175.00 -3.49% -6.19%SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,246.00 -0.80% -1.89%Sunoil, Ex NWE /T 1,370.00 -2.84% -8.05%Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch /T 1,025.00 0.99% -5.96%CPO, cif, Rotterdam /T 1,246.00 -0.80% -1.89%CSBO degummed, Ex NWE /T 950.00 -1.04% -8.03%

Softs and Plantations

Sugar 11 @ ICE USc /lb 27.11 -16.61% -15.60%

Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 432.20 -7.33% 4.27%

Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 2,952.00 -21.43% -2.73%

Coffee C @ ICEUSc /lb 264.15 -2.78% 9.83%

Energy and Metals

Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 106.72 10.05% 16.79%

Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,430.00 1.33% 0.74%

Silver spot US$ /oz 37.60 11.28% 21.84%

Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,428.00 -4.62% -1.79%

Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,648.00 1.85% 7.21%

Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,362.00 -6.27% -3.75%

Indices

DJIA 12,319.70 0.76% 6.41%

FTSE 100 5,908.76 -1.42% 0.15%

Strait times 3,105.85 3.17% -2.64%

S&P GSCI 725.62 5.03% 14.84%Currencies

US Dollar Index 75.8570 -1.34% -4.01%

GBP / USD 1.6031 -1.38% 2.77%

EUR / USD 1.4165 2.64% 5.89%

USD / JPY 83.1500 1.70% 2.46%

USD / SGD 1.2603 -0.87% -1.73%

USD / MYR 3.0250 -0.79% -1.85%

USD / BRL 1.6315 -1.92% -1.68%

nthly Commodity Markets Roundup

r 2011

Index

> Market performance

> Analysis Oil and oilseeds: Key market drive

in the short to medium term.

> Market visuals Commodity fundamentals gauge Price charts - Agriculture

Price charts - Energy Indices Currency Macroeconomic gauge Traders positions vs. price Spreads Corner


2/15

Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011

-1- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Analysis

Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers in the short to medium termAgricultural commodities have mostly ended the month in red, although were able to recover from

early month weakness and trim those initial losses. The political tensions in Middle East and North

Africa region intensified further with more countries joining the league. Coupled with the geopolitica

tensions, the natural disaster in Japan shook the financial markets for a while; however, markets could

bounce back on expectations of reconstruction demand and currency interventions. At the same time,

surging energy prices extended lateral support to the agricultural markets in general and help avoidmajor losses. The important price drivers of oilseed and vegetable oil markets for the coming period

are discussed below.

i) Expectations on US soybean planting acreage for MY 2011/12

The relative firmness of corn prices over soybean has fueled the expectations of soybean losing

acreage to corn in US in the upcoming marketing year, 2011/12. As evident in Fig-1, the soybean to

corn price ratio is currently hovering near the lower end of the historical range. The declining ratio

indicates the relative firmness of corn price vis--vis soybean price. The price ratio has dropped to

levels previously witnessed in the years 2007/08 and 1996/97, during when corn has managed to gain

an edge over soybean with respect to planting acreage. Year 2011/12 could be a repetition of the

history as the ratio hovers below 1.9 and the same is

indicated by the first planting intentions

survey estimates of USDA. As illustrated in

the table, US soybean acreage is expected

to drop by over 0.8 million acres from

previous year acreage of 77.4 to 76.6

million acres in 2011/12 while corn is

expected to gain by 3.97 million acres to

92.17 million acres during the same period.

Although these estimates are subject to

revisions, the expectations clearly highlight

Table-1: US prospective planting estimates for MY

2011/12

2009/10

10/11 Marforecast

11/12

plantingintentions

change (Y-o-Y)

Soybean 77.5 77.4 76.6 -0.8 -1.0%

Corn 86.4 88.2 92.17 3.97 4.5%

Wheat 59.2 53.6 58.02 4.42 8.2%

Cotton 9.15 10.97 12.56 1.59 14.5%

Source: USDA

Soybean to corn price ratio and acreage trends

15

20

25

30

35

'73/74 '76/77 '79/80 '82/83 '85/86 '88/89 '91/92 '94/95 '97/98 '00/01 '03/04 '06/07 '09/10

Areainmln.ha

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Soybeantocornpriceratio

max min Corn SoybeanPrice ratio

range, RHS

Note: Soybean to corn price ratio range is during the period Feb-June in the corresponding year that is

expected to have more influence on the planting decisions than during other periods of the yearFig-1


3/15



Declining soybean crush margin in US and China

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-

06

Jul-

06

Jan-

07

Jul-

07

Jan-

08

Jul-

08

Jan-

09

Jul-

09

Jan-

10

Jul-

10

Jan-

11

crus

hmarg

ininUS

$per

T

margin in China, active month futures

margin in China, spot month continuation

crush margin in US

Fig-2Source: Reuters andPacrim research

the underlying risk to the soybean supplies growth. At the projected acreage and trend line yield of

43.3 bushel per acre, US soybean ending stocks for MY 2011/12 could drop below 100 mb level even

with marginal increase in demand. The same is summarized Table-2.

Table-2: US soybean balance sheet2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 F Chg (Y-o-Y)

Area planted, mln.acres 75.7 77.5 77.4 76.6 -0.8

Area harvested, mln. acres 74.7 76.4 76.6 75.8 -0.8

Yield, bushels/acre 39.7 44 43.5 43.3 -0.2

Production, mln. bushels 2967 3359 3329 3282 -46.86

Beginning stocks, mb 205 138 151 140 -11

Total supply, mb 3185 3512 3495 3437 -57.86

Crush, mb 1662 1752 1655 1660 5

Exports, mb 1279 1501 1590 1590 0

Ending stocks, mb 138 151 140 87 -52.86

Source: USDA and Pacrim research

Thus it is important for soybean to gain acreage and much would depend upon the relative price

trends of corn and soybean in the coming two months period. Surging crude oil risk premiums with

escalating geopolitical tensions in MENA region and firming up gasoline prices is keeping corn buoyanton expectations of increase in demand from ethanol production. The firmness in corn prices could

extend lateral support to soybean prices in the coming period.

ii) Falling crush margins is a cause of concern

Mean while, the soybean crush margins that were in uptrend till the recent period have turned down

as highlighted in Fig-2 and

will be a cause of concern

from the demand

perspective. The crush

margins in China werecomputed based on the

soybean complex futures

traded on Dalian commodity

exchange and in US were

based on soybean complex

futures traded on CBOT. The

crush margin in China peaked

early in the year 2011 and

was declining since then. The

crush margin in US remained

flat during the same period. The robust crush and import demand from China backed by raising crush

margins was one of the major bullish factor during the recent uptrend. Declining crush margins

indicate the relative expensiveness of soybean compared to its product prices and highlight the need

for product prices to rally at a much faster pace to keep up with the surging soybean prices, failing

which could weigh on soybean prices.

iii) Slowing US soybean export and crush pace.

US soybean accumulated export shipments have reached 34.22 million tons for the week ending Mar

24, 2011 in the current marketing year, were higher compared to same period previous year level of


4/15



100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

monthlysoybeancrush,

inmb

5 yr min

5 yr max

2009-102010-11

5 year average

Source: US census and Pacrim research

US monthly soybean crush, in million bushels

Fig-5

33.69 million tons (Fig-3). Though the exports in absolute terms were higher than the previous year

level, lagged behind the previous years pace from the relative perspective. The accumulated exports

till date have accounted for 79.1% of the projected marketing year exports (43.27 million tons), were

less than the previous year same period level of 82.46%. During the same period, the outstanding sales

(export sales not yet shipped) remained high at 6.13 million tons vs. 2.69 million tons in the previous

year (Fig-4) and highlight the underlying risk of shipment cancellations in the event of any major price

correction or availability of competitive supplies from other origins.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

W1 W5 W9 W13 W17W21 W25 W29 W33W37 W41 W45W49 W53

accumu

latedexp

inm

t

2010-11 2009-105 yr avg 5 yr min5 yr max

Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt


US soybean weekly export shipment trends, in million tons

Fig-3

0

5

10

15

20

25

W 1 W 5 W 9 W 13 W 17 W 21 W 25 W 29 W 33 W 37 W 41 W 45 W 49 W 53

ou

tstan

dingsa

les

inm

t

2010-11 2009-105 yr avg 5 yr min5 yr max

Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt


US soybean weekly outstanding sales, in million tons

Fig-4

On the domestic consumption front, US soybean crush has accumulated to 874.3 million bushels til

Feb2011 in the current MY (Sep-Aug) and

need to average 130.1 mb per month in the

remaining six month period to achieve the

projected marketing year crush of 1655 mb.

The soybean crush that begun at above

average pace in the current marketing year

has lost momentum in the recent period as

evident by declining crush volumes during the

past two month period. (Fig-5)

Slowing down exports and domestic crush in

the recent period has led to the expectations

that USDA might downsize the MY export and

crush estimates in the upcoming monthly supply and demand report. The USDA estimates on US

soybean exports and domestic crush in the April2011 bulletin shall assume significance and any

downside revisions shall have negative impact on soybean prices.

iv) Harvest in South America

In the other origins, nearly 70% of the soybean crop was harvested in Brazil and about 7% of the cropwas harvested in Argentina for the week ending Mar 31, 2011. The soybean production in these two

nations is currently anticipated at around 70 million tons and 49.5 million tons respectively. Beyond

the production numbers, it is important to watch for incidents of port workers strike or such logistics

disrupting events that were common to happen in these nations at this point of time.

v) Palm oil production revival in Malaysia and Indonesia and export demand

One of the strongest La Nina on records unfolded in the year 2010 and the extended impact of the

same on palm oil production was still being felt in Malaysia and Indonesia. The Malaysian palm oi


5/15



SME, PME and RME price trend and respective price spreads over

ULSD10

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

A

ug-0

7

O

ct-07

D

ec-0

7

F

eb-0

8

A

pr-

08

J

un-0

8

A

ug-0

8

O

ct-08

D

ec-0

8

F

eb-0

9

A

pr-

09

J

un-0

9

A

ug-0

9

O

ct-09

D

ec-0

9

F

eb-1

0

A

pr-

10

J

un-1

0

A

ug-1

0

O

ct-10

D

ec-1

0

F

eb-1

1

Spreads

in

US

$/T

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Price

in

US$/T

SME - ULSD, LHS PME - ULSD,LHS RME - ULSD, LHSSME,CIF,ARA, RHS RME,FOB,ARA, RHS ULSD10, RHSPME,CIF,ARA, RHS

Fig-7Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

production in the first two months of the current calendar year was estimated at 2.15 million tons

compared to same period average production level of 2.5 million tons witnessed during the past two

years. Much would depend upon

the production growth as palm

oil enters into high production

months in the coming period. At

the same time, palm oil export

demand declined in the first two

months of the current calendar

year as buyers remained

sidelined after prices scaled to

multi-month highs earlier in the

year. The exports in the first two

months accumulated to 2.33

million tons vs. 2.75 million tons

witnessed in the same period previous year. Slow demand amid marginal increase in supplies by way of

higher imports aided in marginal increase in the stocks to 1.478 million tons by the end of Feb 2011

from the seven month low figure of 1.41 million tons witnessed in Jan 2011. (Fig-6)

The recovery in palm oil import demand from major destinations like India, China, US and EU shal

assume key as palm oil enters into seasonally higher production months. Barring the influence of other

external factors, any failure in demand to catch up could pressurize the prices in the coming period.

vi) Volatile crude oil prices to extend lateral support.

Persistent geopolitical disturbances and spreading revolutionary waves in the MENA region resulted in

increasing crude oil risk premiums.

Crude oil futures continued to scale

up to new multi month highs and

the accompanying rally in themineral product prices viz. gasoline

and distillates helped to trim down

their discounts to renewable fuels,

which might be an encouraging sign

for discretionary blenders. (Fig-7 and

Fig-8). Without undermining the

possibility of renewable fuels

premium over mineral oils climbing

back to those unattractive levels as

vegetable oil prices might be bid up

on demand expectations, the surgingcrude oil prices shall extend lateral

support to the oilseed complex.

Malaysian palm oil monthly stocks and stocks to export

ratio

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

stocksto

export

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

stocksin

mln.T

Stock to export ratio, LHS stocks, RHS

Source: MPOB, Reuters and Pacrim researchFig-6


6/15



Rising gasoline prices relative to Ethanol in US

Line, QRBc1, 05/04/2011, 3.1854

Line, QZEc1, 05/04/2011, 2.695

Price

USD

USG

.1234

1.5

2

Spread, QRBc1, 05/04/2011, 0.4904 Value

USD

USG

.1234

-0.5

0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2008 2009 2010 2011[Delayed]

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

Besides the above discussed factors, the movements in US dollar index would also leave significant

impact on the prices. US dollar index slipped further and hit five month low of 75.47 in the 3rd

week of

current month before recovering marginally. The index has been on a sea saw move since then with in

a narrow range of 76.50 to 75.50. Much would depend upon the reaction to these levels as it hovers

over important support region. Any further decline might be supportive to asset prices, although the

same could not be confirmed on chart at the current juncture.

Spread = Gasoline - Ethanol

Fig-8


7/15


Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

Market Visuals

Commodities fundamental gaugeGlobal Palm oil Stocks to use vs. Price World Soybean oil Stocks to use vs. Price

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1980/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

stockstouse(%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30003500

4000

4500

5000

priceinMYR/

all veg oil st ocks to use Palmoil stocks to use

Annual avg price Price max

Price min

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

stockstouse(%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

priceinUSc/lb

a ll v eg oil s to cks to us e So ybn oil s to cks to us e

Annual avg price Price max

Price min

World Soybean Stocks to use vs. Price World soybean meal stocks to use vs. price

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11

stockstouse(%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

12001400

1600

1800

priceinUSc/bushe

l

Annual avg price Price max Price min

Stocks to use

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11

stockstouse(%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

priceinUS$pershortto

stocks to use ratio Annual avg price

Price max Price min

World Corn Stocks to use vs. Price World Wheat Stocks to use vs. Price

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%40%

45%

50%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

stockstouse(%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

priceinUSc/bushel

Stocks to use Annual avg price

Price max Price min

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

stockstouse(%)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

priceinUSc/bushel


Price max Price min

World Sugar Stocks to use vs. Price World Cotton Stocks to use vs. Price

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

stockstouse(%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

priceinUSc/lb


Price max Price min

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

stockstouse(%)

20

70

120

170

220

270

priceinUSc/lb


Price max Price min

Average, Min and Max prices for yr 2011 are Jan 01, 2011 to till date statistics, Source: USDA and Pacrim research


8/15



Price charts - AgricultureCPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

Palm oil continous 3 month cumulative vol (3,295.00, 3,383.00, 3,217.00, 3,340.00, +79.0000)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (56 .8200, 59.5900, 56.1100, 58.6800, +1.84000)

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,360.00, 1,432.00, 1,341.00, 1,393.75, +35.5000)

5 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 1

50

Stoc,9

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (27.8000, 28.0000, 26.2800, 27.4400, -0.42000)

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

50

100

150

200250

300

350

400

450

500

550

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (434.800, 444.500, 430.500, 444 .300, +16.9000)

9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

150

200

250

300

350400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (692.750, 738.250, 659.250, 736.000, +46.5000)

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (736.000, 774.000, 721.000, 759.500, +26.2500)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

50

100

150

200

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (202.890, 204.000, 192.230, 195.550, -8.94000)



9/15



Price Charts Energy and Metals

Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,

9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (105.430, 108.470, 102.700, 107.940, +2.54000)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

1

2

3

4

5

6

78

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4 .42500, 4.48000, 4.197 00, 4.36200, -0.0410 0)

Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

gold (1,425.85, 1,439.30, 1,409.95, 1,427.88, -0.77002)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

silver (37.2200, 37.9300, 36.4000, 37.6800, +0.39000)

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T

000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500

1000010500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

3MT COPPER USD (9,515.00, 9,590.00, 9,305.00, 9,360.00, -325.000)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

3MT ZINC DLR (2 ,362.00, 2,390.00, 2,325.00, 2,390.00, +13.0000)

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,602.00, 2,653.00, 2,602.00, 2,631.00, -10.0000)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

3MT LEAD DLR (2,640.00, 2,698.00, 2,618.00, 2,698.00, +28.0000)



10/15



Indices, weekly charts

DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,96000650070007500

8000850090009500

10000105001100011500120001250013000

135001400014500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (12,221.20, 12,419.70, 12,173.50, 12,376.70, +156.101)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

S&P 500 INDEX (1,313.80, 1,337.85, 1,305.76, 1,332.41, +18.6100)

FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

FTSE 100 INDEX (5,900.76, 6,014.77, 5,879.90, 6,009.92, +109.160)

99 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,91000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,063.04, 3,131.07, 3,044.01, 3,120.47, +49.6299)

Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,985.36, 3,005.78, 2,914.38, 2,967.41, -10.4001)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

5000

10000

15000

20000

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (18,799.70, 19,575.20 , 18,799.60, 19 ,420.40, +604 .801)

S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

150

200

250

300

350

400

450500550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

S&P GSCI INDEX (719.480, 732.180, 705.010, 731.444, +12.7150)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

5101520253035404550556065707580859095

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

Volatility Index (18.3100, 19.7800, 16.4400, 17 .4000, -0.51000)



11/15



Currencies, weekly chartsUS Dollar Index spot GBP / USD

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

15 EMA40 EMA 200 E

US DOLLAR INDEX (76.3260, 76.6100, 75.6640, 75.8330, -0.38400)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,91.301.35

1.401.451.501.55

1.601.651.701.751.80

1.851.901.952.002.05

2.102.15

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

UK pound sterling (1.60050, 1.61510, 1.59340, 1.61110, +0.00750)

EUR / USD USD / JPY

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

0.800.850.900.951.001.051.10

1.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.60

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E

EuroDollar (1.40450, 1.42450, 1.40190, 1.42280, +0.01470)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

15 EMA40 EMA 200 EMA

Japanese yen (81.3300, 84.7200, 81.3300, 84.0400, +2.73000)

USD / SGD USD / MYR

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20

50

Stoc,9

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

15 EMA 40 EMA200 EMA

Singapore dollar (1.26150, 1.26420, 1.25800, 1.26000, -0.00150)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2

50

Stoc,9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.33.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

15 EMA 40 EMA200 EMA

Malaysian ringgit (3.02500, 3.03000, 3.02140, 3.02550, +0.00050)

USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield

Line, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.4701

SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.0446

Yield

.1234

3

4

5

6

StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 49.612

StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 40.222

Value

.123

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990 2000 2010

Line, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.391

SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 2.786

Yield

.123

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 86.342

StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 74.452

Value

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1990 2000 2010



12/15



Macroeconomic gaugeUnemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY

EUR

USD

UK JPY

GermanyLine, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.8

Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 28/02 /2011, 4.6

Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 9.9

Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 8

Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 7.10

Value

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1990 2000 2010

US

JPY

GBP

Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 92.9

Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 90.192

Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 96.4

Value

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990 2000 2010

Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence

China

USA

Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 1.267M

Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.242M

Value

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1M

1.2M

1.4M

1.6M

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990 2000 2010

CB Consumer confidence, LHS

ISM services

ISM manufac turing

Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 61.2

Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 57.3

Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 63.4

Value

35

40

45

50

55

Value

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1990 2000 2010

Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %

US

GBP

JPY

EUR

INR

CNY

Line, QJPPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 1.6

Line, QGBPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 0.5

Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 30/04/2011, 1

Line, QUSPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 3.25

Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 9.5

Line, QaCNLENR1Y, (S1, S2) , 30/04/2011, 6.06

Price

.12

2

4

6

8

10

12

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990 2000 2010

PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 2.164

PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.34

Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 8.823

Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 2.6

Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 28/02 /2011, 0

Line, QaCNCPIYY, ( S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.9

Value

.123

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research


13/15



Traders positions vs. PriceSoybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

price,USc/bushel

'000lo

ts

Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

30

40

50

60

price,USc/lb

'000lo

ts


Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-400

-200

0

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

10

15

20

25

30

price,

USc

/lb

'000lots

Producers Net

Swap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-400

-200

0

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

40

60

80

1

00

120

140

price,

US$/b

arrel

'000lots


Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

600

800

1000

1200

1400

price,

USD/

t.oz

'000lots

Producers Net


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

price,

USc/

lb

'000lots

Producers Net


Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

200

300

400

500

600

700

price,

USc/bus

hel

'000lots

Producers Net


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

100

1

50

200

price,

USc/lb

'000lots

Producers Net


Source: CFTC and Pacrim research


14/15



Spreads cornerPME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD

Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 05/04/2011, 250.5

SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 05/04/2011, 347.23

Value

USD

T

.12

0

Line, QPME-CIFARA, 31/03/2011, 1,290

Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 05/04/2011, 1,039.5

Price

USD

T

.12

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

252.58

Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 320.58

EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 05/04/2011, 184.33

Value

USD

T

.12

100

200

Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,130.58

Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 810

Price

USD

T

.12

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2000 2010

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 05/04/2011, 210

EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 05/04/2011, -41.43

Value

USD

T

.12

-100

0

Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 05/04/2011, 2,090

Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,880

Price

USD

T

.12

500

1,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990 2000 2010

Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 730

SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 05/04/2011, 559.76

Value

USD

T

.12

Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,880

Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,150

Price

USD

T

.12

1,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1990 2000 2010

Soybean vs. Corn Wheat vs. Corn

Ratio, QSc1, 10/04/2011, [email protected]

SMA, Ratio(QSc1, QCc1), 10/04/2011, [email protected]

Value

USc

Bsh

1/8

1@7

2@4

Line, QSc1, 10/04/2011, 1378@4

Line, QCc1, 10/04/2011, 767@2

Price

USc

Bsh

1/8

400

800

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201

1990 2000 2010[Delayed]

Ratio, QWc1, 10/04/2011, [email protected], Ratio(QWc1, QCc1), 10/04/2011, [email protected]

Value

USc

Bsh

1/8

1@4

Line, QWc1, 10/04/2011, 786@4

Line, QCc1, 10/04/2011, 767@2

Price

USc

Bsh

1/8

400

600

1995 2000 2005 2010

1990 2000 2010[Delayed]



15/15



Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sourceswe believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility

or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed asa recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

commodity monitor monthly mar2011

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