commodities weekly tracker, 20th may 2013

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  • 7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 20th May 2013

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

    Returns

    Non Agri Commodities Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper Crude Oil

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper Turmeric

    Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

    Monday | May 20, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    1.61.4

    0.1

    (1.0) (1.1) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4)(1.5)

    (1.0)

    (0.5)

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0Currencies Weekly Performance

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    3.9

    0.8

    (0.0)(1.1) (1.1)

    (1.4)

    (4.0)

    (6.1) (6.7)(7.0)

    (5.0)

    (3.0)

    (1.0)

    1.0

    3.0

    Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

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    *Weekly Performance for June contract, CPO, Cotton & Mentha Oil May Contract

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    GoldWeekly Price Performance

    Spot gold prices declined around 6.1 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

    touched a weekly low of $1355.1/oz and closed at $1358.7/oz in last trading session

    of the week. In the Indian markets, prices declined by 3.6 percent taking cues from spot gold prices

    and closed at Rs.25884/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 25776/10

    gms.

    ETF Performance

    Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded

    fund, declined by 1.25 percent to 1,038.41 tonnes as on 17th May 2013 from previous

    level of 1,051.65 tonnes as on 10th May 2013.

    Factors that influenced downside in gold prices Strength in DX coupled with decline in Inflation in the major economies of the world.

    Further, rise in stock markets led to the decline in demand for safe heaven which kept

    prices under pressure.

    Additionally, SPDR gold trust holding continued to decline, which acted as a negative

    factor. Apart from that weak economic data from Euro zone added downside

    pressure on the prices.

    Outlook

    In the coming week we expect gold prices to trade on the negative note as the rise instock markets may reduce the demand for safe haven. Further SPDR gold trust

    holding continued to decline which may add downside pressure. Additionally,

    strength in DX may act as a negative factor. However, sharp downside will be

    cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable economic data from Euro Zone.

    Depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp downside in the prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Gold : Support 1,327/1,295 Resistance 1,387/1,420. (CMP: $1343.70)

    Sell MCX Gold June between 26,150-26,200, SL-26,655, Target -25,050. (CMP: Rs

    25,414)

    1,350

    1,400

    1,450

    1,500

    1,550

    1,600

    1,650

    1,700

    1,750

    1,800

    25,500

    26,500

    27,500

    28,500

    29,500

    30,500

    31,500

    MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    85.0

    1,350

    1,400

    1,450

    1,500

    1,550

    1,600

    1,650

    1,700

    Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

    Sp ot Gol d -$ /oz US Dol lar In de x

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    SilverWeekly Price Performance

    Spot silver fell by 6.7 percent in the last week. The white metal prices touched

    a low of $22.09/oz in the last week and closed at $22.23/oz in last trade ofthe week.

    On the domestic front, prices decreased by 5.0 percent taking cues from spot

    silver prices and closed at Rs.42814/kg on Friday after touching a low of

    Rs.42281/kg in the last week.

    ETF Performance

    Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed

    exchange-traded fund, declined by 1.79 percent to 10,252.69 tonnes as on

    17th May 2013 from previous level of 10,440.4 tonnes as on 10th May 2013.

    Factors that influenced downside in silver prices

    Decline in spot gold prices, downside in the base metal packs along with

    strength in DX. Further, unfavourable economic data from euro zone and

    china coupled with fall in US housing starts and Philly fed manufacturing index

    added downside pressure on the prices.

    However, upbeat global market sentiments along with rise in US consumer

    sentiments cushioned sharp downside in the prices.

    Outlook

    In the coming week we expect spot silver prices to decline taking cues fromfall in spot gold prices coupled with downside in the base metal packs.

    Further, strength in DX may add downside pressure. However, sharp

    downside will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable economic

    data from Euro Zone. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp fall

    in the prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Silver: Support 21.60/20.95 Resistance 22.72/23.40. (CMP:$21.30)

    Sell MCX Silver July between 43,400-43,500, SL-43,951, Target -

    41,700/41,280. (CMP: Rs.40,801)

    22

    24

    26

    28

    30

    32

    42,000

    44,000

    46,000

    48,000

    50,000

    52,000

    54,000

    56,000

    58,000

    60,000

    MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

    M CX-Near Mont h Si lver Fut ures -R s/ kg Comex Si lver Fut ures -$/ oz

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    85.0

    22.0

    24.0

    26.0

    28.0

    30.0

    32.0

    Spot Silver Vs US Dollar I ndex

    Spot Si lver -$ /oz US Doll ar Inde x

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    CopperWeekly Price Performance

    Copper prices declined by 1.1 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a

    weekly low of $7101/tonne and closed at $7310/tonne in the last trading session of the

    week. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note by 0.5 percent and closed at Rs.

    406/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 392.6/kg in the last week. Depreciation in

    the Indian rupee prevented sharp downside in the prices.

    Copper Inventories

    LME copper inventories increased by 4.25 percent in the last week and stood at

    629,950 tonnes as on 17th May, 2013 as against 604,250 tonnes as on 10th May,

    2013.

    Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 2.4 percent

    and stood at 190,330 tonnes for the week ending on 17th May, 2013.

    Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices

    Strength in DX and weak economic data from US, China and Euro Zone increased the

    worries over demand for copper. Additionally, rise in LME inventories by 4.2 percent

    acted as negative factor for the prices.

    However, sharp fall in the prices was cushioned on the back of rise in risk appetite in

    the global market sentiments coupled with rise in US consumer sentiments.

    Outlook

    In the coming week we expect base metal price to trade on the negative note on theback of strength in DX coupled with rise in the LME copper inventories.

    However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable

    economic data from Euro Zone and US.

    Depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp decline in the prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    LME Copper: Support 7265/7125 Resistance 7470/7630. (CMP: $7260.75)

    MCX Copper: Support 402.20/394.60 Resistance 413.50/422.0. (CMP: Rs 401.70)

    365

    375

    385

    395

    405

    415

    425

    435

    445

    455

    6,800

    7,000

    7,200

    7,400

    7,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

    LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

    6,800

    7,000

    7,200

    7,400

    7,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    318,000

    368,000

    418,000

    468,000

    518,000

    568,000

    618,000

    LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

    Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined marginally by 0.01 percent.

    On the domestic bourses, prices increased by 2.0 percent on account ofdepreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,297/bbl on Friday aftertouching a high of Rs.5308/bbl in the last week.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories

    declined unexpectedly by 0.6 million barrels to 394.90 million barrels for theweek ending on 10th May 2013.

    Gasoline stocks increased by 2.6 million barrels to 217.70 million barrels andwhereas distillate stockpiles rose by 2.3 million barrels to 119.90 million barrelsfor the last week.

    Factors that influenced downside in crude oil prices Expectations that OPEC production will increase in the current year coupled

    with strength in the DX.

    Further, unfavorable economic data from the Euro Zone and US also exerteddownside pressure on the crude oil prices.

    However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of decline inUS crude oil inventories along with upbeat global market sentiments.

    Outlook For the coming week, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of

    unrest in the Syria which led to expectations of supply concerns from theregion.

    Additionally, decline in US crude oil inventories coupled with favorableeconomic data from US in last week will support an upside in the prices.

    Further, expectations of positive economic data from US and Euro Zone will actas a positive factor for the oil prices.

    However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in the prices.

    Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will support upside in the prices on the MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 95.15/93.50 Resistance 97.90/99.45. (CMP:$96.14)

    Buy MCX Crude June between 5260-5250, SL-5160, Target -5405/5395.(CMP:Rs 5274)

    86.0

    88.0

    90.0

    92.0

    94.0

    96.0

    98.0

    4,700

    4,800

    4,900

    5,000

    5,100

    5,200

    5,300

    5,400

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    M CX crude oil (Rs/ bbl) NY MEX Crude Oi l ($/bbl)

    361.3

    360.3

    363.1369.1

    371.7

    372.2

    376.4

    377.53

    381.4

    384

    382.7

    385.9

    388.6 388.9

    387.6

    388.6

    395.3 395.5

    394.9

    360

    365

    370

    375

    380

    385

    390

    395

    400

    Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

    US Dollar Index (DX) increased around 1.4 percent in the last week.

    The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.01 percent on weekly basis.

    Factors that influenced upside movement in the DX

    Unfavorable economic data from US and Euro Zone.

    However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk appetite in

    the global market sentiments.

    Further, positive US equities markets also prevented sharp upside in the DX.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

    Dollar demand from importers.

    Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency.

    However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of decline incountrys inflation which is at the lowest level since 2009.

    Further, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments also prevented sharp fall in the

    currency.

    FII Inflows

    For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.11,992.60 crores ($2,208.38

    million) as on 17th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at

    Rs.73,029.0 crores ($13,518.70 million) till 17th May 2013.

    Outlook

    In the coming week, Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate as a result of dollar

    demand from gold and oil importers. Additionally, strength in the DX will also add

    downside pressure on the currency.

    However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of rise in risk

    appetite in the global market sentiments.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX May Support 54.70/54.40 Resistance 55.30/55.60. (CMP: 55.065)

    US Dollar Index: Support 83.70/83.20 Resistance 84.60/85.0. (CMP: 84.0)

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    US Dollar Index

    53.0

    53.5

    54.0

    54.5

    55.0

    55.5

    56.0

    $/INR - Spot

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    EuroWeekly Price Performance

    The Euro depreciated by 1.2 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a

    weekly low of 1.2795 and closed at 1.2838 against dollar on Friday.

    Factors that influenced downside movement in the Euro

    Strength in dollar index.

    Euro zone economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013 for

    consecutive 6 quarters added downside pressure.

    Further, weak economic data from Germany, France and Italy acted as negative

    factor for the currency.

    Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) policy maker said that the bank may

    consider slashing euro deposits rates to negative if required kept currency under

    pressure. However, decline in Inflation in Euro zone along with optimistic global market

    sentiments cushioned sharp depreciation in the euro.

    Apart from that, Fitch credit rating agency upgraded Greece sovereign rating to

    B-minus from CCC, with stable outlook which prevented sharp decline in the

    currency.

    Outlook

    In the coming week we expect Euro currency to depreciate on the back of

    strength in DX.

    However, sharp downside in the currency will be capped on account of rise in

    risk appetite in the global market sentiments.

    Further, forecast for favorable economic data from the Euro region will also

    cushion sharp fall in the currency.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2740/1.2650 Resistance 1.2950/1.3050. (CMP:

    1.2864)

    1.275

    1.285

    1.295

    1.305

    1.315

    1.325

    1.335

    1.345

    1.355

    1.365

    Euro/$ - Spot

    69.0

    69.5

    70.0

    70.5

    71.0

    71.5

    72.0

    72.5

    73.0

    EURO/INR - Spot

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Chana prices remained firm in the early part of the week on emergence of fresh

    demand at lower levels. However, increasing arrival pressure at higher levels

    again exerted downside pressure on the prices towards the week end. Chana spot as well as June futures settled 0.5% & 0.45% lower w-o-w.

    Higher arrivals seen restricting upside in the prices

    Peak arrival period in the major growing states have led to a sharp fall in the

    chana prices in the past four weeks. Thus, stockiest demand emerging at support

    price levels led to an upside in the prices. Despite of this, higher arrivals will

    restrict sharp upside in eh prices till the month end.

    Chana output estimated at record high- Third Advance Estimates

    According to the third advance estimates released last week, Chana output ispegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance

    estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11

    record of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13.

    Seasonal pressure to keep prices under downside pressure

    Chana prices tend to follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline during

    the harvesting period and bottom out when arrivals reach their peak in the

    month of May. Thus, we expect the current downward trend to continue till the

    month end.

    Outlook Chana prices may remain under downside pressure on the back of peak arrival

    period. However, on the downside prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 per qtl

    mark, the level being a Minimum Support price, below which farmers may not

    sell their produce. Also stockiest demand may emerge at such low levels and

    thus we may see a recovery in the Chana prices June onwards.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX CHANA June between 3420-3440, SL -3500, Target - 3330 / 3310

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    Turmeric

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    After declining over the previous four weeks, Turmeric Futures witnessed a sharp

    recovery as the regulator withdrew special margins of 10% on the long side.

    Prices declined sharply earlier on account of huge carryover stocks as well as

    weak demand.

    The spot as well as the futures settled 0.53% and 2.436% lower w-o-w.

    Weak exports data

    Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn. (Source Factiva)

    Modification in Tick size and Lot size

    NCDEX issued a circular earlier last week that it will modify the tick as well as the

    lot size in the Turmeric contract. However the exchange later announced that it

    has kept the circular issued earlier has been kept in abeyance till further notice.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

    Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

    October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

    as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

    Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to lastyear and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

    at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

    Outlook

    Prices may continue to gain as traders expect demand to emerge as the summers

    start to cool down. Lower output estimates may also support prices. However,

    huge carry over stocks may continue to exert downside pressure on the prices.

    Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric June between 5850-5900, SL -5600, Target - 6270 / 6330.

    Monday | May 20, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Jeera

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Jeera futures traded on a positive note last week on reports of fresh export

    enquiries. Also, declining of the pace of arrivals from its peak supported prices.

    Currently the arrivals are about 10,0000-12,000 bags/day against a peak of

    40,000-45,000 bags/day. however, prices declined towards the end of the week

    on account of profit booking at higher levels. Prices had declined earlier due to

    higher output estimates. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha.

    The spot settled 0.76% higher while the June Futures settled 0.65% lower w-o-w.

    Second consecutive year of higher output

    Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher

    than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

    concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the pricesand thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

    Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

    Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86%. (Source Factiva)

    Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

    have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

    International Scenario

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tonnes while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tonnes, lower by 20% and

    around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,50/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera is expected to continue to extend last weeks gains on account of demand

    emerging at lower levels. However, higher output estimates may cap sharp gains.

    Weekly Levels Buy NCDEX Jeera June between 12850-12900, SL -12600, Target - 13270 / 13330.

    Monday | May 20, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    NCDEX Soybean traded in a range bound manner with upward bias on account of

    poor supplies in the domestic markets and weak meal export demand. June futures

    settled 0.14% higher w-o-w. CBOT Soybean July lost 2.6% w-o-w on expectatations favorable weather may boost

    planting which was lagging behind till the week ended 12th May.

    India's soy meal Exports Fall by 68 Percent during FY12-13 SEA

    Indias soy meal exports for the month of April 2013 were 99.451 tonnes, lower by

    68.31 percent from 313,832 tonnes a year ago.

    Increase in the output in the 3rd Advance Estimates

    As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, soybean

    output increased to 14.14 mn tn from 12.24 mn tn in the previous estimates.Record US soybean crops to end supply squeeze-USDA

    USDA monthly report forecast ending stocks in 2013-14 to double to 265 mn bushels

    against 125 mn bushels in 2012-13.

    South American Soybean Exports Seen at Record High- Oil World

    Brazil, set to become the worlds largest soybean exporter, may ship a record 7.6

    million tons of the oilseed in May after permitting ports to operate 24 hours a day,

    from a previous 8-hour limit.

    US Soy planting- 6% completed against 43% y-o-y According to the weekly crop report, only 6% of Soybean has been planted as

    against 43% last year and five year average of 24%.

    Outlook

    Soybean prices may remain range bound in the coming week as poor supplies in the

    domestic markets may offset weak meal exports. Traders will now take cues from

    the monsoon and sowing progress to derive further price trend.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Soybean June between 3840-3860, SL -3730, Target - 4025 / 4050

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    Edible oil complex extended the gains of the previous week on account of

    lower stocks and seasonally lower yield period of Malaysian Palm Oil.However, CPO prices at MCX witnessed profit booking and thus settled

    marginally lower by 0.29% w-o-w.

    Global Scenario

    Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 to 20 fell 9.4% to 799,405

    tonnes from 882,469 tonnes shipped during April 1 to 20. However, demand

    is

    Stocks data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed

    inventory levels at the end of April down 11.3 percent to 1.93 million tonnes

    against the previous month's 2.17 mn tn. But exports of palm oil products forMay 1-10 slid 16.7% to 380,047 tn.

    Domestic Scenario

    The Solvent Extractors' Association of India will release the data this week.

    Imports by India, may probably decline in April, as reserves stayed near a

    record and summer heat curbed consumption of fried foods. Imports of all

    vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in

    March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports.

    Stockpiles of edible oil at ports fell nearly nine percent during March to

    850,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1.Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

    India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October

    2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as

    the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Ref Soy Oil June between 690-695, SL -680, Target - 710 / 713

    Buy MCX CPO June between 466-470, SL -458, Target - 483 / 485

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Sugar prices extended the gains of the previous week on account of good demand

    from the bulk consumers. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped onaccount of weak international markets & sufficient supplies in the domestic

    markets.

    ICE sugar declined further below 17 cents per pound and settled lower by 2.4%

    last week as record production in brazil weighed on the prices.

    Sugarcane planting down 10.9%

    As on 17th May, 2013, Sugarcane has been planted in 40.7 lakh ha against 45.7

    lakh ha last year. Lower acreage has been reported in Maharashtra by 45% (5.1

    lakh ha), Karnataka by 10.4% (3.27 lakh ha),

    India is expected to have produced around 24.52 million tonnes (mt) of sugarduring the first six months of the 2012-13 sugar marketing season.

    India sugar reserves at five-year high set to avert imports

    Sugar inventories in India, are poised to surge by 37% to 9.2 million tonnes at the

    start of October, a five-year high as exports halt because of slumping global

    prices. Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4

    million tonnes in 2011-2012.

    Brazil ethanol demand to cut global sugar surplusCopersucar

    Demand from Brazil's resurgent biofuels industry will cut the burgeoning globalsugar surplus, helping cushion prices that fell below 17 cents per lb for the first

    time in almost three years.

    Outlook

    Sugar prices are expected to gain on account of improvement in demand from the

    bulk manufacturers. Further, lower cane planting figures may also support an

    upside in the sugar prices.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX SUGAR June between 3010-3030, SL -2940, Target - 3135 / 3150

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 20, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Domestic Kapas as well as cotton prices remained in the negative territory last week

    on account of supply pressure caused due to offloading from the state reserves.

    ICE Cotton futures gained in the early part of week on account of U.S. plantings

    delays which raised worry over upcoming supplies. However, prices declined after

    the release of poor weekly exports sales. w-o-w ICE Cotton settled 0.08% lower.

    Govt Likely to Sell More Cotton this Month

    Cotton Corporation & NAFED are expected to offload 8 lakh bales at lower prices.

    After an unsuccessful bid to offload of 2.5 lakh bales of cotton in April, the

    government has now decided to give it a fresh chance.

    Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing

    CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 seasoncompared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to

    go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales.

    Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales.

    US Cotton planting to determine cotton prices

    Cotton prices have shown some recovery in the past weeks as unfavorable weather

    caused delay in plantings. As on 12h May, Cotton planting was 23% completed in the

    US compared to 46% during the last year and average 38% in the last five years.

    However, Planting is expected picked up as weather improved in Mississippi Delta

    and into the Southeast United States .

    Outlook

    Cotton prices may trade with downward bias as offloading more stocks in the local

    markets from state reserves may exert pressure on the domestic cotton prices.

    However, if international markets recover sharply, then we may see prices taking a

    rebound from lower levels.

    Strategy

    Sell MCX Cotton June between 18240-18300, SL -18520, Target - 17900 / 17850

  • 7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 20th May 2013

    19/19

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