comfort securities limited daily research reports · 2018-09-12 · 9.hong kong’s hang seng...

Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.

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Welcome Note

Wednesday12th September, 2018

Stock Of The Day: (F & O)

Forecast and Analysis

CONTENTSCONTENTS



Title Page No.

'30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street 04-07

Stock Of The Day: (F & O) 08-09

Equity Derivatives 10

Daily Pivot Table (Equities) 11

Forecast and Analysis 12-14

Daily Pivot Table (Commodities) 15

Disclaimer 16

'30,000 feet view’:

The big picture of Dalal Street

'30,000 feet view’:

The big picture of Dalal Street



'30,000 feet view’: newsletter provides insights and themes for Indian equity markets. We also try and cover international themes for the day. This newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy for Sensex/Nifty for the day.

In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.

In a nutshell, '30,000 feet view’: covers themes and insights for the day.

‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street

www.comfortsecurities.co.inEnjoy Your Comfort Zone.


Nifty Outlook

Intraday

Medium Term

Long Term

Key Levels to Watch

Nifty Support

Nifty Resistance

Pivot Level

Nifty

Outlook for the Day

INDICES

Nifty

Bank Nifty

Nifty Auto Index

Nifty FMCG Index

Nifty Infra Index

Nifty IT Index

Nifty Media Index

Nifty Midcap Index

Nifty Metal Index

Nifty Pharma Index

Nifty Reality Index

Nifty Smallcap Index

Sensex

SGX Nifty


Good Morning & Welcome to Wednesday's trading action at Dalal Street, dated 12th of

September 2018.

Our call of the day suggests that Inflation could be the silent killer of your portfolio.

Honestly speaking, it's time for perma-bulls to look for alternatives as the bear is seen

taking the center stage.

The bearish wave is unlikely to turn soon. We say so because, in the near term the

headwinds are likely to outweigh tailwinds.

1. U.S-China trade dispute seen escalating. No resolution in sight. Trade war is biggest

concern as can hamper global growth.

2. Mayhem in currency markets. The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a fresh low,

bolstering inflation concerns. At the time of writing, the partially convertible Rupee

was hovering at 72.63.

3. Spillover effect seen into our stock markets amidst contagion risks from turmoil in

Turkish Lira, plunging Argentina’s Peso and talks of recession in South Africa

4. Rising interest rates, both in India and globally.

5. Crude-oil prices could play a black swan. The biggest macro risk for Dalal Street is

the rising crude oil prices, as they are likely to cast a shadow on retail inflation,

leaving no room for RBI to go for interest rate cuts.

6. Rising inflation.

7. Prolonged NPA crisis in the fluid banking space.

8. Foreign funds continue with their exit on Dalal Street.

9. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng entered bear market territory, closing near a 14-month low.

The index is down 21.1% since hitting its 52-week high back in January 2018.

Chinese stocks at 2016 low.

10. A relatively narrow breadth at Dalal Street in terms of leadership.

11. A united opposition is likely to be a key negative catalyst dragging sentiments at

Dalal Street.

Long story short: Lighten long positions if stocks move up on backdrop of short

covering.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

• Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in GAS

AUTHORITY (GAIL) with intermonth perspective.

• Bullish stocks: GAIL, MINDTREE, KPIT, INFIBEAM, BIOCON.

• Bearish stocks: ADANI PORTS, BANK OF INDIA, REC, PFC, TITAN, BATA, HDFC,

CANARA BANK, CANFINA HOMES, JUST DIAL, ESCORTS, YES BANK, BHEL, INDIAN

OIL CORPORATION.

• Show Me the Money: Sell INDIAN OIL CORPORATION (IOC) (CMP 150.70): IOC

is signaling a major breakdown from a lower consolidation zone on the daily charts.

Key intraday support seen at 147.50 zone. Key hurdles seen at 158.05. Interweek

Strategy: Sell between 153-155 zone, targeting 147.50 and then at 137.50-141

zone. Stop above 158.15.

• US FDA starts inspections inspection of Sun Pharma's Mohali unit.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: None.

11287 -1.32%

26808 -1.45%

10681 -1.50%

30068 -2.41%

3162 -1.35%

15993 -0.70%

2673 -1.45%

5052 -1.33%

3578 -1.61%

10279 -1.60%

259 -1.99%

7313 -1.54%

37413 -1.34%

11305 -0.15%

Consolidation day likely.

Neutral (11521-11621)

Neutral (11300-11901)

Neutral (12001)

11211 & 11161

11421 & 11575

11675



Technical Strategy


Outlook for Wednesday: Volatility likely to prevail.

Judging by early action at SGX Nifty, the benchmark Nifty is likely to trade volatile even in

today's trading session.

Nifty is likely to trade subdued in today's trade on backdrop deepening in emerging

market selloff as investors fear a spillover effect on other healthier emerging markets and

beyond.

The street will keep a very close eye on the movement of Indian Rupee and also on the

Crude-Oil prices; as that could influence investors’ sentiment directly. Any further

weakening of the rupee will be concern for bullish stock traders.

Today, amongst macro economic data, the street will brace for CPI & IIP data to be

released at 5:30 pm IST.

Wholesale Price Inflation (July) will be declared on September 14.

FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA:

• As per Tuesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs.

1454.36 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand bought shares

worth Rs. 749.62 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• On the option data front, key resistance level for the September series are at 11,800

strike price. While support for Nifty are seen at 11,400 strike price as maximum put

open interest seen at 11,400 strike price.

GLOBAL CUES:

• Wednesday, the 12th of September is Apple Day, as the company holds a product

event. The exact details aren’t known, but reports center around three iPhones

with, potentially, radically different designs and an all-screen iPad Pro with Face ID.

There is also the chance of the long-awaited AirPower charging pad and the fourth-

generation Apple Watch. There may be a new MacBook of some kind, likely an

entry-level model which could replace the MacBook Air. And maybe even AirPods 2.

• In Monday's session, Wall Street was seen attempting a rebound despite mounting

concerns about contagion from a handful of struggling emerging economies on top

of unresolved trade tension.

• Investors' will continue to monitor talks between the U.S. and Canada amid an

effort to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement.

• Sentiments has been also badly hurt after President Donald Trump’s comments

urging Apple Inc. to move its manufacturing to the U.S.

COMMODITY CUES:

• Crude Oil prices rose on Tuesday as U.S. drilling stalled and investors anticipated

lower supply once new U.S. sanctions against Iran's crude exports kick in from

November.

• Copper prices traded range bound in Tuesday’s trade. MCX COPPER (426):

Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 413-417 zone, targeting 431

and then at 437 and finally at 441-447.50 zone with stop at 403.

• Gold prices were just near the $1,200 an ounce mark on worries about U.S-China

trade war worries but upside seems to be capped amidst a strong U.S. jobs data

released on Friday provided a boost to the dollar and supported expectations for

further interest-rate hikes this year.

SONATA SOFTWARE

Action

Target

Support

Resistance

Holding Period

367.95

BUY

401

325/307.50

387/421

60 days

Sonata is a global technology company that enables

successful platform based digital transformation

initiatives for enterprises, to create businesses that are

connected, open, Intelligent and scalable. Sonata’s

Platformation™ methodology brings together industry

expertise, platform technology excellence, design

thinking led innovation and strategic engagement

models to deliver sustained long term value to

customers. A trusted long-term service provider to

Fortune 500 companies across both the software

product development and enterprise business

segments.

Sonata Software is a mid cap company and is cash rich

having strong financial return ratios with Return on

Capital employed and Return on Net worth of over 30%.

The company pays more than 50% of its profit as

dividend and qualifies as dividend yield stock.

Technically, brace yourselves for a major breakout play

from a complex ‘higher consolidation pattern’ on the

weekly charts.

An impulse uptrend is seen forming on the daily time

scale with recent sequence of higher high/ higher low

pattern, with positive SAR series, major confirmation

above 387 mark. The positive takeaway from recent

price action is that the stock price was seen

consolidating, despite broader markets remaining

volatile. Add to that a bullish divergence and a rising

stochastic signal (on weekly charts) with recent increase

in volumes signaling a larger rebound. The 200 days

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the

daily chart is currently at 305. The level of Rs 305 will act

as a strong support and this could be maintained as a

stop loss for long positions.

A potential entrance exists at CMP, and on dips between

325-337.50 zone, as the stock is likely to run above its

psychological and all-time-high at 401 mark.

Aggressive 3-months targets seen at 421-445 zone.

Place stops below 301. Holding Period: 3 Months.




CURRIENCIES & BONDS:

• Rupee registered a new all-time closing low of 72.70 against the U.S Dollar after registering a fresh all-time low of 72.75 against the

greenback, . Concerns over the trade deficit and inflation, fuelled by high oil prices, have prompted many investors to exit long positions in

the rupee.

• At the current level, the rupee has declined more than 14% against the greenback so far this year.

MACRO WATCH:

• The U.S job growth in August was strong and topped analysts' expectations. The US economy added 201,000 jobs, while the unemployment

rate stayed at 3.9% near 18-year low.

• The strong U.S jobs report is seen as supporting the Federal Reserve’s intention to hike rates at least once more in September, and possibly

once more in December.

• The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is slated to convene its two-day gathering on Sept. 26.

• Higher rates can hurt the appeal of gold and strengthen the U.S. dollar.

• On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision.

• The Indian Rupee is down 8% in last one month, and is down around 14% YTD. Interestingly, the Rupee is depreciating despite decent GDP

growth which stood at a more than two-year high of 8.2% in April-June period.

The depreciating Rupee is bound to have an impact on the Oil import bill, and amid this backdrop inflation should edge higher --- forcing the

RBI to hike interest rates.

You can blame it to two key catalysts:

1. Acceleration in Fed rate hike.

2. U.S China trade war concerns hurting emerging markets.

• Moody's: Weakening INR is credit negative for India Corporates.

What Technical Tells Us on Nifty: Nifty ended with major losses in Tuesday's trade, down 1.32%. Volatility was hallmark & ruled the roost.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.36%. The BSE Small-Cap index was fell

1.37%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Technically speaking, key support for the day on Nifty is at 11,211 mark. The technical landscape will worsen only if Nifty closes below the 11,211

mark as that would open the door to massive technical selling, possibly quickly to the 10,750-10,901 zone.

The intraday bias is neutral amidst heightened volatility.

For the day, we believe, Nifty will trade with neutral bias with upside capped at 11,575 mark. The make or break levels hurdles are at 11,575

mark.

The price action for Nifty is suggesting that we are likely to see an

11,201-11,550 range in near term with neutral bias.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Volatility likely to be the hallmark of today's trade. In the near

term, Nifty likely to trade in a broad range of 11201-11551 zone.

Selling on any excessive strength should be the preferred trading

strategy.

Preferred trade on Nifty: Nifty (11287): Sell on any excessive

strength between 11401-11425 zone, targeting 11201-11221

zone with stop at 11575.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty (26808): Establish

short positions between 27251-27351 zone, targeting 26501 zone

and then at 26001-26101 zone with strict stop at 27801.

Daily Chart of Nifty:



Comfort stock of the day


When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.

When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how Stock Of The Day: (F & O) introduces to the momentum stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.


R2STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 TRADING STRATEGYBIAS


Invest Smart. Build Wealth. www.comfortsecurities.co.in


GAIL is signaling a breakout from a probable higher consolidation zone on daily charts. Intermonth Strategy: Establish long positions only above 382.50 zone, targeting 395 zone and then at 411-421 zone. Stop below 361.

The sequence of higher high/low is intact on daily charts. Key intraday support seen at 303. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 302.50-305 zone, targeting 317.50 and then at 325-327.50 zone. Stop below 294.

MINDTREE has signalled a major breakout from a probable 'Flag Pattern' zone on the monthly charts. Intermonth Strategy: Establish long positions between 1137-1145 zone, targeting 1187 zone and then aggressive targets located at 1211-1221 zone. Stop below 1125.

CANARA BANK ended on a weak note in yesterday's trading session, down -1.40%. The interweek bias shifts to negative with down side risk at 247.50 zone. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 265-267.50 zone, targeting 253 and then at 247.50-249 zone. Stop above 271.45.

IOC is signaling a major breakdown from a lower consolidation zone on the daily charts. Key intraday support seen at 147.50 zone. Key hurdles seen at 158.05. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 153-155 zone, targeting 147.50 and then at 137.50-141 zone. Stop above 158.15.

GAIL: The technical landscape is positive with intermonth perspective. Establish long positions above 382.50.

GAIL

KPIT

MINDTREE

CANARA BANK

INDIAN OIL CORPORATION (IOC)

374 369 361 382.5 421 Positive

306.9 302.5 294 317.5 327.5 Positive

1166 1125 1109 1183 1221 Positive

261.15 253 247.5 271 277 Negative

151.05 147.5 137.5 155 158.05 Negative



EQUITY DERIVATIVESLooking into the future from present.

Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.

Nifty Spot

Bank Nifty Future

VIX

Premium

Nifty Future OI

Bank Nifty Spot OI

BSE Cash Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

NSE Cash Vol.(Rs. in Cr)

NSE Derivative Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

Index Future Volumes

Stock Future Volumes

Index Option Volumes

Stock Option Volumes

Total

Cash Volumes (INR in Cr.)

YesterdayDay Before Yesterday

Derivatives Vol.(INR in Cr.)

No of contracts

Turnover (Rs. In cr.)

Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)

Market Summary: The benchmark Nifty tumbled in yesterday's session on reports that China will ask the World

Trade Organization for permission to impose sanctions on the United States.

The negative takeaway from world markets is that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng entered bear

market territory, closing near a 14-month low. The index is down 21.1% since hitting its 52-

week high back in January 2018. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee too depreciated to a fresh low, bolstering inflation concerns. Going forward, the benchmark Nifty is likely to stay in the bear grip for a while and much of

direction will depend on movement of USD/INR and how the U.S-China trade worries unfolds. Technically, the must watch support level on Nifty is at 11,211 mark. Major hurdles are at

11,601 mark. Selling on excessive strength should continue to be the preferred trading

strategy.

Amongst the broader indices, the BSE Midcap Index was down 1.36%. The BSE Smallcap Index

was down 1.37%. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

Amongst the sectoral indices, underperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE Consumer Durables

Index (down 2.47%), BSE FMCG Index (down 2.25%), BSE Realty Index (down 1.78%)

Amongst stock specific action, positive bias was seen in stocks like COAL INDIA (up 1.72%),

M&M (up 1.03%), NTPC (up 0.53%)

Among stocks drifting down were: TITAN (down 4.50%), TATA STEEL (down 3.94%), ITC

(down 3.38%)

Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11800 Strike Price, followed by 11600 Strike Price

for September Series. Heavy short builtup was seen at 11400-12000 strike prices for

September series.

Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 11400 followed by 11,000 strike price

for September series. Fresh buying in put was seen at 10900-11000 strike prices for September

series.

As per Tuesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs. 1454.36

crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand bought shares worth Rs. 749.62

crores in the Indian Equity market.

Highest OI Nifty: Calls 11800: 46.88 L - Puts 11400: 44.30Highest OI Bank Nifty: Calls 27500: 5.53 L - Puts 27000: 10.56 L

Change in Stock Open Interest (OI) in previous day’s trade.

Long Buildup: COAL INDIA, MINDTREE, OFSS,

Short Buildup: YES BANK, BANK OF BARODA, SAIL, REC, DLF.

Short Covering: PAGEIND, INDIGO, SRTFIN, HINDZINC.

Long Unwinding: CADILA, LUPIN, ESCORTS, NIITTECH, BAJFIN.

Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: NIL.

New In Ban: NIL.Out of Ban: NIL.

Future Call: SELL SAIL SEPTEMBER FUTURES between 75-75.75.

Targets 72.30 and then at 68. Stop: 77.30. Holding Period: Intraday.

Analyst’s Remark: Breaking Down (SAIL September Futures CMP

74.65).

Option Call: BUY ESCORTS SEPTEMBER PE strike price 740 at CMP

14.90. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 16,390. Stop: Exit Put

option if Escorts moves above 782 (Escorts September Futures CMP

768.05).

11287.50 (-1.32%)

26807.50 (-1.45%)

15.33 (+0.84%)

+43 vs +49

2.86 crores (+1.64%)

20.94 lakhs (+26.96%)

3061 3928.22

35712 33574.56

1262935 801491

264734 25224

825243 59622

10686093 1123696

695384 54393

12471454 1262935

Calls in lakhs (% Change)

11500 35.65 (+39%)

11600 43.08 (+15%)

11700 33.18 (-5%)

Puts in lakhs (% Change)

11400 42.95 (-3%)

11300 30.55 (+1%)

11200 35.37 (+7%)


www.comfortsecurities.co.in

DAILY PIVOT TABLE



Instrument Close S1 S2 R1 R2 200 Day SMA Reversal Point Trend

All level indicated above are based on cash market prices.

Pivot Point

PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.

As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.

Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.

If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.


NIFTY 11287.5 11214.53 11141.57 11419.93 11552.37 11346.97 10719.54 UP

BANKNIFTY 26807.5 26613.68 26419.87 27159.88 27512.27 26966.07 26083.71 UP

NIFTYMID50 5052.1 5012.52 4972.93 5122.27 5192.43 5082.68 5161.45 DOWN

ACC 1519.4 1507.4 1495.4 1540.2 1561 1528.2 1553.2 DOWN

ADANIENT 148.25 145.13 142.02 152.53 156.82 149.42 127.09 UP

ADANIPORTS 364.65 359.15 353.65 374 383.35 368.5 390.47 DOWN

AJANTPHARM 1162.1 1127.1 1092.1 1220.1 1278.1 1185.1 1260.68 DOWN

ALBK 40.85 39.8 38.75 42.05 43.25 41 52.76 DOWN

AMARAJABAT 785.35 773.77 762.18 805.17 824.98 793.58 811.02 DOWN

ANDHRABANK 30.9 30.42 29.93 31.67 32.43 31.18 42.81 DOWN

APOLLOTYRE 230.75 225.55 220.35 239.4 248.05 234.2 268.99 DOWN

ARVIND 386.2 379.17 372.13 398.57 410.93 391.53 413.09 DOWN

ASHOKLEY 127.75 126.08 124.42 130.38 133.02 128.72 134.01 DOWN

ASIANPAINT 1297.85 1285.27 1272.68 1311.87 1325.88 1299.28 1231.46 UP

AUROPHARMA 790.35 781.35 772.35 805.3 820.25 796.3 625.11 UP

AXISBANK 650.15 643.17 636.18 661.42 672.68 654.43 550.9 UP

BAJAJ-AUTO 2833.7 2804.4 2775.1 2884 2934.3 2854.7 2958.87 DOWN

BAJAJFINSV 6362.15 6249.7 6137.25 6476.9 6591.65 6364.45 5669.06 UP

BAJFINANCE 2600.75 2552.4 2504.05 2658.95 2717.15 2610.6 2054.56 UP

BALKRISIND 1138.35 1119.77 1101.18 1167.97 1197.58 1149.38 1168.62 DOWN

BALRAMCHIN 76.2 73.98 71.77 79.08 81.97 76.87 93.56 DOWN

BANKBARODA 140.5 136.78 133.07 146.78 153.07 143.07 145.57 DOWN

BANKINDIA 90.7 89.33 87.97 92.98 95.27 91.62 119.75 DOWN

BATAINDIA 1020.1 1010.08 1000.07 1036.58 1053.07 1026.57 799.19 UP

BEL 88.5 87.13 85.77 90.88 93.27 89.52 139.61 DOWN

BEML 754.3 744.67 735.03 770.37 786.43 760.73 1124.28 DOWN

BERGEPAINT 299.4 294.68 289.97 304.43 309.47 299.72 276.8 UP

BHARATFIN 1120.8 1108.23 1095.67 1137.28 1153.77 1124.72 1104.08 UP

BHARATFORG 654.25 643.02 631.78 671.52 688.78 660.28 693.07 DOWN

BHARTIARTL 378.7 373.3 367.9 388.25 397.8 382.85 416.35 DOWN

BHEL 77.1 75.97 74.83 78.32 79.53 77.18 84.34 DOWN

BIOCON 637 623.4 609.8 655.1 673.2 641.5 594 UP

BPCL 338.05 333.77 329.48 345.67 353.28 341.38 428.55 DOWN

BRITANNIA 5940.05 5869.95 5799.85 6060.35 6180.65 5990.25 5453.83 UP

CANBK 262.75 259.32 255.88 267.87 272.98 264.43 292.09 DOWN

CANFINHOME 309.1 306.73 304.37 312.43 315.77 310.07 418.27 DOWN

CAPF 591.3 583.88 576.47 603.63 615.97 596.22 631.05 DOWN

CASTROLIND 152.25 151.22 150.18 153.62 154.98 152.58 183.17 DOWN

CEATLTD 1366.05 1344.43 1322.82 1395.83 1425.62 1374.22 1546.98 DOWN

CENTURYTEX 906.85 897.03 887.22 923.73 940.62 913.92 1126.37 DOWN

CESC 981.9 967.63 953.37 1001.58 1021.27 987.32 998.82 DOWN

CGPOWER 54 53.12 52.23 55.42 56.83 54.53 75 DOWN

CHENNPETRO 280.35 274.8 269.25 289.8 299.25 284.25 344.43 DOWN

CHOLAFIN 1310.95 1274.82 1238.68 1372.77 1434.58 1336.63 1453.83 DOWN

CIPLA 654.9 645.33 635.77 669.73 684.57 660.17 598.25 UP

COALINDIA 283.1 276.6 270.1 288.8 294.5 282.3 281.02 UP

COLPAL 1096.8 1082.77 1068.73 1120.42 1144.03 1106.38 1121.28 DOWN

CONCOR 633.5 620.62 607.73 655.77 678.03 642.88 658.71 DOWN

DABUR 443.75 438.85 433.95 451.5 459.25 446.6 370.85 UP

DALMIABHA 2533.45 2506.07 2478.68 2575.82 2618.18 2548.43 2785.26 DOWN

DCBBANK 168.4 166.27 164.13 171.32 174.23 169.18 177.75 DOWN

DHFL 611.7 603.15 594.6 627.1 642.5 618.55 595.26 UP

DISHTV 67.85 67.27 66.68 68.42 68.98 67.83 73.7 DOWN

DIVISLAB 1244.65 1221.55 1198.45 1279 1313.35 1255.9 1105.42 UP

DLF 198.9 195.35 191.8 204.7 210.5 201.15 216.18 DOWN

DRREDDY 2524.45 2492.22 2459.98 2571.57 2618.68 2539.33 2224.94 UP

EICHERMOT 28069.6 27786.87 27504.13 28516.17 28962.73 28233.43 28853.84 DOWN

EQUITAS 144.7 141.55 138.4 149.75 154.8 146.6 148.09 DOWN

ESCORTS 768.25 759 749.75 783.75 799.25 774.5 855.45 DOWN

EXIDEIND 267.65 264.32 260.98 272.07 276.48 268.73 241.31 UP

FEDERALBNK 75.8 74.9 74 76.75 77.7 75.85 93.4 DOWN

FORTIS 143.65 142.47 141.28 145.37 147.08 144.18 145.41 DOWN

GAIL 372.15 366.65 361.15 379.8 387.45 374.3 350.53 UP

GLENMARK 669.5 660.07 650.63 686.77 704.03 677.33 572.44 UP

GMRINFRA 18.05 17.72 17.38 18.67 19.28 18.33 18.66 DOWN

GODREJCP 1248.25 1222.7 1197.15 1291.15 1334.05 1265.6 1134.08 UP

GODREJIND 583.5 575.03 566.57 596.98 610.47 588.52 589.74 DOWN

GRANULES 114.4 112.13 109.87 118.33 122.27 116.07 109.15 UP

GRASIM 1003.95 990.15 976.35 1021.4 1038.85 1007.6 1082.8 DOWN

GSFC 111.15 109.02 106.88 114.67 118.18 112.53 126.21 DOWN

HAVELLS 632.6 624.57 616.53 647.07 661.53 639.03 558.72 UP

HCC 14.35 14.07 13.78 14.82 15.28 14.53 24.49 DOWN

HCLTECH 1085.1 1078.4 1071.7 1095.4 1105.7 1088.7 948.86 UP

HDFC 1868.05 1854.82 1841.58 1886.92 1905.78 1873.68 1848.24 UP

HDFCBANK 2000.4 1980.37 1960.33 2034.22 2068.03 2014.18 1976.57 UP

HDIL 30.5 29.7 28.9 31.8 33.1 31 39.26 DOWN

HEROMOTOCO 3184.2 3138.13 3092.07 3262.13 3340.07 3216.07 3547.93 DOWN

HEXAWARE 454.1 446.25 438.4 466.9 479.7 459.05 405.04 UP

HINDALCO 231.6 226.63 221.67 238.68 245.77 233.72 236.39 DOWN

HINDPETRO 243.7 240.17 236.63 250.32 256.93 246.78 338.52 DOWN

HINDUNILVR 1590.65 1569.8 1548.95 1617.75 1644.85 1596.9 1486.48 UP

HINDZINC 288.35 282.83 277.32 296.08 303.82 290.57 299.44 DOWN

IBREALEST 141 138.8 136.6 144.85 148.7 142.65 189.37 DOWN

IBULHSGFIN 1130.25 1112.83 1095.42 1159.83 1189.42 1142.42 1239.43 DOWN

ICICIBANK 326.55 322.2 317.85 333.8 341.05 329.45 304.35 UP

ICICIPRULI 372.85 370.08 367.32 375.78 378.72 373.02 397.72 DOWN

ICIL 75.25 73.7 72.15 77.6 79.95 76.05 92.61 DOWN

IDBI 57.4 56.8 56.2 58.4 59.4 57.8 63.42 DOWN

IDFC 49.2 48.68 48.17 50.03 50.87 49.52 52.9 DOWN

IDFCBANK 43.9 43.35 42.8 44.8 45.7 44.25 48 DOWN

IFCI 15.35 15.12 14.88 15.72 16.08 15.48 20.79 DOWN

IGL 264.85 261.8 258.75 269.7 274.55 266.65 291.41 DOWN

INDIACEM 114.9 112.68 110.47 118.68 122.47 116.47 142.87 DOWN

INDIANB 319.05 315.6 312.15 324.5 329.95 321.05 341.12 DOWN

INDIGO 892.35 881.57 870.78 907.57 922.78 896.78 1189.53 DOWN

INDUSINDBK 1826.5 1812.35 1798.2 1847.8 1869.1 1833.65 1818.5 UP

INFIBEAM 225 222.63 220.27 229.08 233.17 226.72 166.49 UP

INFRATEL 270.2 267.2 264.2 275 279.8 272 325.28 DOWN

INFY 734.3 729.28 724.27 742.03 749.77 737.02 599.05 UP

IOC 150.7 149.62 148.53 152.32 153.93 151.23 176.52 DOWN

IRB 170.5 168.2 165.9 174.1 177.7 171.8 224.48 DOWN

ITC 297.2 292.92 288.63 304.12 311.03 299.83 274.54 UP

JETAIRWAYS 269.8 264.6 259.4 278.7 287.6 273.5 549.64 DOWN

JINDALSTEL 216.95 212.13 207.32 224.83 232.72 220.02 226.04 DOWN

JISLJALEQS 82.95 81.42 79.88 85.37 87.78 83.83 106.09 DOWN

JPASSOCIAT 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.45 10.8 10.25 17.36 DOWN

JSWENERGY 66.2 64.93 63.67 68.23 70.27 66.97 76.88 DOWN

JSWSTEEL 395.2 390.4 385.6 401.95 408.7 397.15 309.71 UP

JUBLFOOD 1353.3 1331.33 1309.37 1389.13 1424.97 1367.17 1190.87 UP

JUSTDIAL 517.95 510.18 502.42 527.23 536.52 519.47 512.58 UP

KOTAKBANK 1206.4 1197.55 1188.7 1221.45 1236.5 1212.6 1174.68 UP

KPIT 306.8 304.57 302.33 310.32 313.83 308.08 240.95 UP

KSCL 621.2 600.7 580.2 643.35 665.5 622.85 538.17 UP

KTKBANK 113.45 111.92 110.38 115.72 117.98 114.18 128.43 DOWN

L&TFH 157 154.2 151.4 161.6 166.2 158.8 168.39 DOWN

LICHSGFIN 472.75 467.1 461.45 482.45 492.15 476.8 527.97 DOWN

LT 1329.65 1321.72 1313.78 1342.67 1355.68 1334.73 1313.49 UP

LUPIN 940.3 929.2 918.1 955.45 970.6 944.35 836.66 UP

M&M 943.15 932.63 922.12 957.33 971.52 946.82 825.41 UP

M&MFIN 439.2 432.55 425.9 449.2 459.2 442.55 471.58 DOWN

MANAPPURAM 87.9 86.37 84.83 90.57 93.23 89.03 108.97 DOWN

MARICO 336.95 333.77 330.58 342.02 347.08 338.83 327.31 UP

MARUTI 8517.05 8431.13 8345.22 8651.43 8785.82 8565.52 9042.28 DOWN

MCDOWELL-N 578.3 567.4 556.5 593.1 607.9 582.2 656.79 DOWN

MCX 772.15 760.18 748.22 793.98 815.82 782.02 815.61 DOWN

MGL 832.6 825.07 817.53 845.57 858.53 838.03 948.42 DOWN

MOTHERSUMI 291.15 288.32 285.48 296.32 301.48 293.48 331.03 DOWN

MRF 69769.55 69213.05 68656.55 70713 71656.45 70156.5 73308.62 DOWN

MRPL 74.2 73.18 72.17 75.93 77.67 74.92 104.89 DOWN

MUTHOOTFIN 436.95 428.68 420.42 450.58 464.22 442.32 416.61 UP

NATIONALUM 69.85 68.45 67.05 71.85 73.85 70.45 72.31 DOWN

NBCC 67.25 66.05 64.85 69.1 70.95 67.9 97.03 DOWN

NCC 88.5 86.83 85.17 91.43 94.37 89.77 114.57 DOWN

NMDC 118.35 116.67 114.98 121.17 123.98 119.48 121.61 DOWN

NTPC 169.75 168.42 167.08 171.42 173.08 170.08 166.94 UP

OFSS 4192.55 4125.17 4057.78 4266.82 4341.08 4199.43 3990.13 UP

OIL 202.75 201.63 200.52 204.43 206.12 203.32 225.99 DOWN

ONGC 167.8 166.8 165.8 169.4 171 168.4 178.6 DOWN

ORIENTBANK 75.4 74.5 73.6 77 78.6 76.1 95.3 DOWN

PCJEWELLER 84.1 82.3 80.5 86.9 89.7 85.1 270.58 DOWN

PEL 2922.3 2858.47 2794.63 3021.67 3121.03 2957.83 2644.24 UP

PETRONET 239.4 236.25 233.1 244.65 249.9 241.5 232.93 UP

PFC 81.2 77.52 73.83 87.62 94.03 83.93 94.55 DOWN

PIDILITIND 1113.65 1097.1 1080.55 1143.1 1172.55 1126.55 1001.01 UP

PNB 81.7 80.57 79.43 83.67 85.63 82.53 113.03 DOWN

POWERGRID 186.9 183.78 180.67 192.43 197.97 189.32 196.86 DOWN

PTC 81.35 80.63 79.92 82.23 83.12 81.52 93.79 DOWN

PVR 1352.85 1340.48 1328.12 1363.03 1373.22 1350.67 1338.77 UP

RAMCOCEM 641.45 632.3 623.15 653.3 665.15 644.15 740.83 DOWN

RAYMOND 779.1 769.8 760.5 793.7 808.3 784.4 959.8 DOWN

RBLBANK 602.9 596.43 589.97 610.63 618.37 604.17 526.52 UP

RCOM 16.15 15.75 15.35 16.85 17.55 16.45 19.73 DOWN

RECLTD 111.65 108.08 104.52 117.43 123.22 113.87 128.86 DOWN

RELCAPITAL 439.75 433.23 426.72 448.13 456.52 441.62 442.51 DOWN

RELIANCE 1237.7 1225.17 1212.63 1259.32 1280.93 1246.78 993.85 UP

RELINFRA 457.2 449.97 442.73 469.32 481.43 462.08 445.53 UP

REPCOHOME 539.8 534.08 528.37 545.28 550.77 539.57 598.51 DOWN

RPOWER 35.2 34.63 34.07 36.13 37.07 35.57 38.65 DOWN

SAIL 74.5 73.38 72.27 76.43 78.37 75.32 80.44 DOWN

SBIN 282.6 279.02 275.43 288.82 295.03 285.23 279.85 UP

SHREECEM 17036.1 16891.03 16745.96 17245.58 17455.07 17100.52 17073.53 DOWN

SIEMENS 954.45 939.97 925.48 979.47 1004.48 964.98 1103.43 DOWN

SOUTHBANK 16.05 15.82 15.58 16.47 16.88 16.23 25.25 DOWN

SREINFRA 50.6 49.57 48.53 52.22 53.83 51.18 78.1 DOWN

SRF 1941.7 1919.53 1897.37 1977.93 2014.17 1955.77 1908.75 UP

SRTRANSFIN 1186.65 1171.1 1155.55 1206.3 1225.95 1190.75 1402.5 DOWN

STAR 490.65 483.5 476.35 501.3 511.95 494.15 593.37 DOWN

SUNPHARMA 630.4 622.17 613.93 644.02 657.63 635.78 547.49 UP

SUNTV 666.7 650.08 633.47 690.63 714.57 674.02 886.44 DOWN

SUZLON 6.95 6.83 6.72 7.13 7.32 7.02 10.81 DOWN

SYNDIBANK 36.7 36.32 35.93 37.32 37.93 36.93 57.75 DOWN

TATACHEM 738.1 732.38 726.67 746.43 754.77 740.72 718.48 UP

TATACOMM 522.75 514.23 505.72 537.38 552.02 528.87 620.23 DOWN

TATAELXSI 1311.9 1293.97 1276.03 1342.42 1372.93 1324.48 1159.09 UP

TATAGLOBAL 216 212.1 208.2 222.65 229.3 218.75 270.92 DOWN

TATAMOTORS 267.3 262.38 257.47 275.53 283.77 270.62 335.38 DOWN

TATAMTRDVR 142.75 140.5 138.25 146.6 150.45 144.35 190.52 DOWN

TATAPOWER 74.45 73.25 72.05 76.3 78.15 75.1 82.21 DOWN

TATASTEEL 592.1 581.3 570.5 609.95 627.8 599.15 616.61 DOWN

TCS 2046.25 2029.3 2012.35 2076.1 2105.95 2059.15 1656.72 UP

TECHM 747.2 732.5 717.8 767.85 788.5 753.15 628.95 UP

TITAN 820.75 804.07 787.38 849.17 877.58 832.48 882.25 DOWN

TV18BRDCST 41.25 40.57 39.88 42.42 43.58 41.73 56.45 DOWN

TVSMOTOR 574.05 565 555.95 588.05 602.05 579 635.75 DOWN

UBL 1281.05 1258.28 1235.52 1319.23 1357.42 1296.47 1133.54 UP

UJJIVAN 322.25 318.12 313.98 329.47 336.68 325.33 378.65 DOWN

ULTRACEMCO 4107.6 4068.48 4029.37 4167.33 4227.07 4128.22 4086.67 UP

UNIONBANK 80.75 79.82 78.88 82.37 83.98 81.43 106.25 DOWN

UPL 687.65 674.97 662.28 707.67 727.68 694.98 704.19 DOWN

VEDL 219.65 215.97 212.28 225.37 231.08 221.68 276.73 DOWN

VOLTAS 575.6 568.6 561.6 586.2 596.8 579.2 597.01 DOWN

WIPRO 323.95 322.07 320.18 326.92 329.88 325.03 286.65 UP

WOCKPHARMA 626.25 613 599.75 650.7 675.15 637.45 732.35 DOWN

YESBANK 316.6 311.52 306.43 324.77 332.93 319.68 336.5 DOWN

ZEEL 466 456.17 446.33 477.92 489.83 468.08 560.14 DOWN



Comfort ‘Forecast and Analysis’

Forecast and Analysis is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.

This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.

Forecast and Analysis

Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias


MCX GOLD

MCX SILVER

MCX CRUDE OIL

MCX COPPER

MCX NATURAL GAS

USD-INR

Forecast and Analysis …Direction at a glance



Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions between 29901-30101 zone, targeting 30501 and then at 30751-30699 zone. Stop 29701.

Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 37901 and then at 38601-38751 zone. Stop 35899.

Intraday strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 5045 and then at 5205-5250 zone with stop at 4671.

Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 415-418 zone, targeting 431 and then at 437.50 and finally at 443-447.50 zone with stop at 403.

Interweek Strategy: Buy on any early dips between 197.50-199 zone, targeting 213 and then at 221-225 zone with stop below191.

USD/INR was seen flaring up in yesterday's trade. Overbought conditions seen prevailing. Interweek strategy: Establish long position only on any excessive declines between 71.45-71.65 zone, targeting 73.05 and then aggressive targets at 73.50-75 zone with stop at 70.21.

30695 29991 29405 30699 30901 Neutral

37386 36601 35899 37901 38751 Neutral

4925 4671 4505 5045 5250 Positive

426 411 403 431 448 Positive

201.40 191.00 185.00 213.00 225.00 Neutral

72.70 71.45 70.25 73.50 75.00 Positive

MCX Oil: Establish long positions at CMP, Aggressive targets at 5250.

Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2


GOLD $

SILVER ($)

WTI CRUDE OIL ($ )

EUR/USD

Forecast and Analysis …Sailing global trend

Bias

DOW JONES

US Dollar Index



Worldwide stock markets stumble as investors turn cautious amidst simmering trade worries.

Intraday Strategy: Establish short positions between 1213-1217 zone, targeting 1189 zone and then aggressive targets at 1175-1179 zone with stop at 1225.

Intraday Strategy: Establish short positions between 14.75-14.89 zone, targeting 14.05 zone and then aggressive targets at 13.45-13.55 zone with stop at 15.39.

Intraday Strategy: Establish long positions between 67.05-67.10 zone, targeting 70 and then at 73.05 with stop at 65.

The EUR/USD was seen drifting in Monday's trade amidst rebound play in the US Dollar index. Technically, the bias continues to be neutral with initial downside risk at 1.1501. Hurdles continue to be at 1.1900. Selling on strength should be the preferred trading strategy.

The U.S Dollar was seen consolidating in Monday's trade. We shift our bias to neutral/positive on the US Dollar Index. Hurdles at 97.50. Downside well supported at 92.50. Major weakness now only below 92.50.

Wall Street was seen struggling in yesterday's trade on worries after President Donald Trump's threat that the U.S. had tariffs ready to go on another $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of tariffs on $200 billion in goods the administration is now preparing. Key hurdle now seen at 26451. The near term bias continues to be positive.

1200 1189 1175 1223 1233 Neutral

14.13 14.05 13.45 15.27 15.95 Neutral

67.7 67.05 65.05 70 73.05 Positive

1.1587 1.1501 1.1215 1.1751 1.1900 Neutral

95.22 92.50 90.00 97.50 99.00 Neutral

25921 25445 23501 26451 27901 Positive


DAILY PIVOT TABLE



CommodityExchange Close S1 S2 R1 R2200 Day

SMA Reversal

Point Trend

MCX ALUMINUM

MCX CARDAMOM

NCDEX CASTOR

NCDEX CHANA

MCX COPPER

MCX COTTON

MCX CRUDE-OIL

MCX GOLD

NCDEX GAUR GUM

NCDEX GAUR SEED

NCDEX JEERA

MCX LEAD

MCX MENTHA OIL

MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX NICKLE

NCDEX RM SEED

MCX SILVER

NCDEX SUGAR

NCDEX SOYA BEAN

MCX ZINC

149.95 147.13 144.32 152.18 154.42 143.79 152.35 DOWN

1395.6 1383.97 1372.33 1403.37 1411.13 1066.18 1341.3 DOWN

4612 4586.33 4560.67 4651.33 4690.67 4264.12 4572 UP

3807 3775.33 3743.67 3856.33 3905.67 3872.99 3980 UP

426.8 423.23 419.67 428.93 431.07 445.66 411.5 DOWN

23170 23016.67 22863.33 23256.67 23343.33 21191.1 23190 UP

4916 4883.33 4850.67 4959.33 5002.67 4366.58 4817 DOWN

30715 30563.67 30412.33 30797.67 30880.33 30235.48 30059.5 UP

9326 9238.67 9151.33 9431.67 9537.33 8840.4 9126 UP

4307.5 4278 4248.5 4350 4392.5 4090.06 4435 UP

19010 18890 18770 19140 19270 17783.75 18850 DOWN

146.4 144.67 142.93 149.67 152.93 157.97 142.65 UP

1812.5 1794.3 1776.1 1822.5 1832.5 1476.54 1630.4 UP

204.2 201.33 198.47 205.83 207.47 188.91 207 UP

900.8 891.07 881.33 907.57 914.33 901.47 929.3 DOWN

4148 4123 4098 4171 4194 4016.79 3932.5 DOWN

37494 37262.34 37030.67 37626.34 37758.67 38731.84 36435 UP

3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3614.83 3015 UP

3236 3212.67 3189.33 3274.67 3313.33 3479.06 3157 UP

172.7 171.42 170.13 174.97 177.23 204.14 183.05 UP



DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Comfort Securities Ltd. and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Comfort Securities Ltd. its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Comfort Securities Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.

Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Comfort Securities Ltd. in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Comfort Securities Ltd. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Comfort Securities Ltd. makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.

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comfort securities limited daily research reports · 2018-09-12 · 9.hong kong’s hang seng...

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