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5 February 2003 1

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Columbia River TreatyColumbia River TreatyColumbia River Treaty

Fifty-First Meetingof the

Canadian and United States Entities and the

Permanent Engineering BoardBriefing Slides by Entity Staff

5 February 2003 2

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Agenda:10:00 am to 2:30 pm, 18th floor Boardroom, BC Hydro

I. Introductory Comments / Meeting Objectives: Entities, PEB Chairs 15 minutesII. Introductory Comments: CRTOC Chairs 10 minutesIII. Policy Directions/Comments: CRT Coordinators 10 minutesIV. Streamlined Methods – Decision for OY 2003 30 minutesV. Brief Overview of Operations OC Chairs 20 minutes VI. Exception Reports (1-2 slides each) / Lunch 130 + 30 minutes

A. August 2001-September 2002 Operations1. Reliability Concerns & Treaty Storage Greg D. and Kelvin K.2. Fishery Operations Allan W. & Cindy H.3. LCA Use Kelvin K. & Pam K.4. Libby Operation Plan Update Cindy H.5. Entitlement Delivery Issues Tony W. & Doug R.6. Spill Test at Libby / VarQ Bill B. & Cindy H.

Embedded Lunch break at 12:00 in meeting room - continue meeting at 12:30B. Operating Committee Activities – Preparing for the Future

1. POP Status Ken S. & Tony W.2. Emerging Burbot Issues Cindy H.3. Flood Control Split and Request Bill B.4. AOP and DOP Status John H. & Tom S.5. BiOp related Activities Cindy H. & Rick P

C. Related Activities1. Hydromet Committee Update Eric W.2. Non-Treaty Storage Agreements Update (info) Kelvin K. Tony W., Pam K.3. Columbia WUP Update Allan W.

VII. Question Period 30 minutes VIII. Adjourn at 2:30 p.m.

5 February 2003 3

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Columbia River TreatyColumbia River TreatyColumbia River Treaty

Agenda Item V Overview of Operations

byOperating Committee Chairs

5 February 2003 4

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Kinbasket (Mica) Reservoir

Summary of Inflows, Outflows, and Levels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1-Jul-01 1-Aug-01 1-Sep-01 1-Oct-01 1-Nov-01 1-Dec-01 1-Jan-02 1-Feb-02 1-Mar-02 1-Apr-02 1-May-02 1-Jun-02 1-Jul-02 1-Aug-02

Inflo

w, O

utflo

w (k

cfs)

2320

2340

2360

2380

2400

2420

2440

2460

2480

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

ft)

Inflow Outflow Elevation Flood Level Full Pool

5 February 2003 5

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Arrow Reservoir


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


Inflo

w, O

utflo

w (k

cfs)

1370

1380

1390

1400

1410

1420

1430

1440

1450

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

ft)


5 February 2003 6

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Duncan Reservoir


0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

27.5


Inflo

w, O

utflo

w (k

cfs)

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

ft)


5 February 2003 7

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Koocanusa (Libby) Reservoir


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Inflo

w, O

utflo

w (k

cfs)

2280

2300

2320

2340

2360

2380

2400

2420

2440

2460

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

ft)

Inflow Outflow Elevation Flood Control Full Pool

5 February 2003 8

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Kootenay Lake


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Inflo

w, D

isch

arge

(kcf

s)

1736

1738

1740

1742

1744

1746

1748

1750

1752

1754

1756

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

ft)

Inflow Discharge Elevation IJC Level

5 February 2003 9

ColumbiaRiverTreaty


Agenda Item VI(A.1) Pacific Northwest

Reliability Synopsisby

Greg Delwiche

5 February 2003 10

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Regional Loss of Load Probability(NWPPC Analysis –1/14/03)

0123456789

10

LOLP

(P

erc

en

t)

2003 2004 2005 2006

No ImportsAvg ImportsMax Imports

UncertaintyRange 2%

5 February 2003 11

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Regional 2006 LOLP Sensitivity

0 2 4 6 8 10

LOLP (Percent)

Hydro Flex

Import Limits

NW Loads

+ 1000 MWa

No Flex

No Imports

Flex

Max

Current

5 February 2003 12

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

BPA Dry Year Strategy (for addressing seasonal deficits)

Dry Year Principles

Dry Year Tools

Load Reductions

Increase Resources (*)

Reliability Enhancements

Fishery Operations

NMFS Regional Forum

NWPPCMainstem

Rulemaking Process

BiOp Imple-mentation

Financial Tools

PBL FY 2003-2006 Financial Choices Public

Process

Dry Year ToolboxNEXT STEPS: Quantitative analyses of tools to determine the appropriate use under various conditions not including increases in generation due to changes in fishery operations

5 February 2003 13

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

2003 Dry Year Contingency Planning –Applicability of Dry Year Tools

D r y Y e a r T o o ls P r io r i ty fo r 2 0 0 2 /0 3 P r io r it y T o o ls C o m m e n ts

1 S h if t e n e rg y f ro m s u rp lu s p e r io d s in to p ro je c te d d e f ic it p e r io d s

• B P A is c u r re n t ly l im it in g m a rk e t s a le s in o rd e r to u s e th e a v a ila b le f le x ib i lit y o f th e F C R P S to m o v e s u rp lu s f irm e n e rg y in to th e w in te r p e r io d in -o rd e r to c o v e r p ro je c te d p o te n t ia l d e f ic its .

• T h is w a s n o t id e n t if ie d d ire c t ly a s a to o l in th e “G u id e to T o o ls a n d P r in c ip le s fo r a D r y Y e a r S t ra te g y ” , b u t s h o u ld b e c o n s id e re d a to o l.

2 • E n e rg y P u rc h a s e s • O p tio n P u rc h a s e s • E n e rg y E x c h a n g e s

• G iv e n th e a n t ic ip a te d c o s t o f th e o th e r D r y Y e a r T o o ls , th e m a rk e t-b a s e d to o ls c u r re n t ly h a v e th e h ig h e s t l ik e lih o o d o f b e in g im p le m e n te d .

• A n a ly s is is b e in g c o n d u c te d b y th e t ra d in g f lo o r to d e te rm in e w h ic h (a n d /o r h o w m u c h o f e a c h ) to o l s h o u ld b e im p le m e n te d .

3 D e m a n d E x c h a n g e P ro g ra m

• T h is to o l p r o v id e s l it t le a d d it io n a l e n e r g y , h o w e v e r it d o e s a l lo w e n e rg y d e m a n d s o v e r p e a k h o u rs to b e re d u c e d .

4 P u b lic e n e rg y C o n s e rv a t io n

• L o n g - te rm e n e rg y c o n s e r v a t io n s h o u ld c o n t in u e to b e p u rs u e d . • I f th is y e a r c o n t in u e s to b e d r y , B P A s h o u ld w o rk w ith o u r c u s to m e rs

to p ro m o te s h o r t- te rm e n e rg y c o n s e rv a t io n m e a s u re s . 5 I r r ig a t io n B u y -D o w n • T h e e f fe c t iv e n e s s o f th is to o l d e p e n d s la rg e ly o n h o w th e h y d ro

s y s te m is o p e ra te d . I f w e c h o o s e to im p le m e n t th is to o l, w e w ill n e e d to s ta r t th e p ro c e s s w ith in th e n e x t fe w w e e k s .

6 D S I B u y D o w n • C u r re n t ly B P A is n o t s e rv in g a n y a p p re c ia b le D S I lo a d f ro m th e F C R P S

7 D is tr ib u te d G e n e ra t io n ( i.e . te m p o ra r y d ie s e l a n d g a s g e n e ra to rs )

• A t th is t im e , th is to o l a p p e a rs to b e th e m o s t c o s t ly a lte rn a t iv e . In a d d it io n , th e re te n d s to b e a s ig n if ic a n t o p p o s it io n to th is to o l in th e e n v iro n m e n ta l c o m m u n ity .

8 R e g io n a l C u r ta i lm e n t

• T h is te n d s to b e a to o l o f la s t re s o r t . T h e re g io n w o u ld h a v e to b e in d ire c ir c u m s ta n c e fo r th e g o v e rn o rs to m a n d a te re g io n a l c u r ta ilm e n t. A d d it io n a lly re s o u rc e a d e q u a c y p ro je c t io n s d o n e in 2 0 0 2 , b y th e C o u n c il, in d ic a te d th a t th e r e g io n h a s a le s s th a n 1 % p ro b a b il it y o f lo s s o f lo a d .

Market options appear to be the most cost-effective tool at this time.

5 February 2003 14

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Long-term Reliability Issues

Energy Crisis of 2000-01 underscores Region’s vulnerability in Resource Adequacy arena:• Post deregulation lack of clarity with regard to Load Serving

Entities’ “Obligation to Serve”.• Lack of certainty (Tx, price, load) makes it difficult for independent

power plant developers to secure investment $.• Market sensitivities make it difficult to secure quality load/resource

information needed for reliability assessments.• New NW Merchant Plants may not be contractually committed to

serve load in Region.• Post-2006 discussions indicate BPA should not augment, but then

BPA cannot be “provider of last resort.”Motivated by 2000-01 Energy Crisis & FERC’s proposed SMD NOPR, NW Power Planning & Conservation Council is initiating Resource Adequacy Forum to:• Establish consistent, transparent Regional Resource Adequacy

Standard.• Explore ways to reasonably ensure Regional Resource Adequacy.

5 February 2003 15

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Treaty Storage Status

Canadian Composite Storage Operationfor 2002-03 Operating Year

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

8/15

/02

8/29

/02

9/12

/02

9/26

/02

10/1

0/02

10/2

4/02

11/7

/02

11/2

1/02

12/5

/02

12/1

9/02

1/2/

03

1/16

/03

1/30

/03

2/13

/03

2/27

/03

3/13

/03

3/27

/03

4/10

/03

4/24

/03

5/8/

03

5/22

/03

6/5/

03

6/19

/03

7/3/

03

7/17

/03

7/31

/03

Period

Stor

age

Con

tent

(ksf

d)

URCTSRActual OperationForecast

5 February 2003 16

ColumbiaRiverTreaty


Agenda Item VI(A.2) Fishery Operations

byAllan Woo and Cindy Henriksen

5 February 2003 17

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Canadian Fishery Investigations

Keenleyside Dam• Jul 10, 2001 - Operation jointly investigated by DFO

and MWLAP• Nov 2002 - Investigator’s report sent to Department

of JusticeDuncan Dam• Oct 13, 2001 - Dam discharge reduced from

6 kcfs to 3 kcfs• Oct 24, 2001 - Local resident reported fish stranding

to MWLAP• Investigation on-going

5 February 2003 18

ColumbiaRiverTreaty U.S. Fishery Operations

No major exceptionsNMFS and USFWS BiOps were implemented• Priest Rapids spring flow was 181 kcfs, objective was

135 kcfs• Lower Granite spring flow was 83 kcfs, objective was

97 kcfs• McNary spring flow was 269 kcfs, objective was 246 kcfs• Lower Granite summer flow was 42 kcfs, objective was

51 kcfs• McNary summer flow was 184 kcfs, objective was 200 kcfs

New fishery discussions on the horizon• Burbot, Conservation Agreement• Kootenai River downstream of Libby

5 February 2003 19

ColumbiaRiverTreaty


Agenda Item VI(A.3) Libby Coordination

Agreement Useby

Kelvin Ketchum and Pam Kingsbury

5 February 2003 20

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Libby CoordinationAgreement Use

Libby Coordination Agreement Provisional Draft ActivityAugust 2001 through September 2002

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

8/10

/01

8/24

/01

9/7/

01

9/21

/01

10/5

/01

10/1

9/01

11/2

/01

11/1

6/01

11/3

0/01

12/1

4/01

12/2

8/01

1/11

/02

1/25

/02

2/8/

02

2/22

/02

3/8/

02

3/22

/02

4/5/

02

4/19

/02

5/3/

02

5/17

/02

5/31

/02

6/14

/02

6/28

/02

7/12

/02

7/26

/02

8/9/

02

8/23

/02

9/6/

02

9/20

/02

Date

Prov

isio

nal D

raft

(ksf

d)

5 February 2003 21

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Libby-Canadian Treaty Storage Exchange Agreement

Provided for a balancing of storage between Libby and Canadian Storage to provide non-power benefits in the US and Canada A total of 63 ksfd of additional water was stored in Libby and an equivalent amount was released from Treaty StoragePower benefits were gained at Libby with this operationTotal power benefits were calculated to be $454,888 ($US)Forty percent of the benefit ($181,955 US) is being returned to Canada as energy during February 2003

5 February 2003 22

ColumbiaRiverTreaty


Agenda Item VI(A.4) Libby Operating Plan

Updateby

Cindy Henriksen

5 February 2003 23

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Libby Operating Plan

Updated November 14, 2002Includes USFWS 2000 Biological Opinion updates• VARQ flood control at Libby• Spill at Libby• Updated sturgeon volume as measured at Libby

– New volumes were developed March 25-26, 2002– These volumes were memorialized August 23, 2002

5 February 2003 24

ColumbiaRiverTreaty


Agenda Item VI(A.5) Canadian Entitlement &

Transmission Issuesby

Doug Robinson and Tony White

5 February 2003 25

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Update and Discussion ofTransmission Issues (II)

Entitlement deliveries are treated according to standard utility practice as specified in the Scheduling Guidelines Appendix to the 1999 Entity Agreement.In Dec 2001, TBL established a schedule curtailment procedure for use during periods of extreme congestion, that places Entitlement return on an equal footing with other firm US Pacific Northwest customers.

5 February 2003 26

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Energy & Capacity Returns

1 Aug 00 – 31 Jul 01 277.4 aMW with a peak of 794 MW w/ losses 267.4 aMW with a peak of 779 MW

1 Aug 01 – 31 July 02 292.1 aMW with a peak of 783 MW w/ losses 281.6 aMW with a peak of 768 MW

1 Aug 02 – 31 Mar 02 293.1 aMW with a peak of 642 MW w/ losses 282.5 aMW with a peak of 630 MW

1 Apr 03 – 31 Jul 03 534.5 aMW with a peak of 1171 MW w/ losses 515.3 aMW with a peak of 1149 MW

5 February 2003 27

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Entitlement-ImpactedForced Outages

Three during Oct 01-Sep 02 period[1] Thursday 13 Dec 01, 9 a.m.-9 p.m.; BCH a net exporter; BCH limitation as RAS plan out-of-service[2] Thursday, 28 Mar 02, 3-5 p.m.; BCH a net importer; BPA’s Echo Lake-Monroe line real-time failure (forced outage)[3] Tuesday-Thursday, 17-19 Sep 02: 3-11 p.m. 17 Sep + 2 a.m. 18 Sep + midnight-1 a.m. 19 Sep; BCH a net exporter; Puget Sound Energy pole fails, knocks out 2 BPA 230 kV lines near Custer substation (forced outage)

5 February 2003 28

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

FERC’S STANDARD MARKET DESIGN NOPR

Following are summary points to FERC on 5 September 2002• PNW rights based on historical use or single dispatch may

not protect users from congestion costs• Transmission rights are needed for system coordination

agreements and treaties• Hydro requires significant day-ahead to real-time flexibility;

SMD would impose additional costs for these changes• Obligations (vs. options) impose financial risks because

hydro is energy-constrained• BPA cannot voluntarily implement an SMD proposal until

examination of its elements is complete and we are confident that the PNW is not worse off under such a proposal

5 February 2003 29

ColumbiaRiverTreaty


Agenda Item VI(A.6) Spill Test at Libby

and VarQby

Bill Branch and Cindy Henriksen

5 February 2003 30

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Test Spill at Libby

USFWS 2000 Biological Opinion calls for increased release capacity, 10,000 cfs more at LibbyThe test was designed to measure Total Dissolved Gas (TDG) downstream, channel capacity, and effects on fishThe test was designed to spill up to 15,000 cfs if Montana water quality standards for TDG were not exceededSpill test scheduled for June 25 – 27Test began and flood control operation overtook operationJune 25Spill was as great as 15 kcfs on July 2First significant spill since 1981

5 February 2003 31

ColumbiaRiverTreaty VARQ Definition

VARQ is a system flood control operationSystem flood control is not significantly diminished• Libby and Hungry Horse reservoirs are more full at

the start of the freshet• Grand Coulee is drafted more deeply

Libby and Hungry Horse are more full at the start of the refill period and can release variable outflow greater than minimum flow during the freshet (rather than releasing minimum flow under current flood control strategies)

5 February 2003 32

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

VARQ Process to Date

Both USFWS and NMFS called for implementation of VARQ by January 1, 2002VARQ flood control is the proposed operation in the Upper Columbia Environmental Assessment performed by Seattle District Corps, in cooperation with BPA and ReclamationDraft EA opened for 30 day public comments period November 14, 2002Colonel Graves signed a FONSI December 31, 2002General Fastabend signed a decision to implement VARQ December 31, 2002EIS is underway, completion planned in 2004

5 February 2003 33


Agenda Item VI(B.1)Principles and

Procedures Revisionby

Ken Spafford and Tony White

5 Feb 03

5 February 2003 34

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Principles & Procedures (POP)

Operating Committee direction to revise POP in July 2001Proposed changes are philosophical (what to address), structural (order, outline), and technical (changes since 1991)Goal is to describe what is, and how results were obtained, rather than prescribing for the futureIntent is to generate a document approved by Entity Agreement, document changes in appendices to AOP’s, DOP’sIssue a revised POP whenever a significant change, or accumulation of smaller changes, warrantsOne-month cancellation clause for either party who feels the POP is no longer applicable/relevantExpected publication by February 2003

5 February 2003 35


Agenda Item VI(B.2)

EmergingBurbot Issues

ByCindy Henriksen

5 February 2003 36

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Emerging Burbot Issues

Burbot were proposed for listing under ESA in 2000USFWS has not taken action since that dateIdaho conservation League has sued USFWS to proceedUSFWS has until March 1, 2003 for resolution with plaintiffsThe Kootenai Valley Resource Initiative (KVRI) is leading in development of a Conservation Agreement (CA) for burbot

5 February 2003 37

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Emerging Burbot Issue (cont.)

The CA is designed to be a legally binding agreement to preclude listingAll effected stakeholders are to be signatories to the CA, including Canadian interestThe KVRI and Burbot subcommittees continue to meet• Habitat• Aquaculture• Hydro• Participants include Corps, BPA, BC Hydro, DFO

5 February 2003 38


Agenda Item VI(B.3)

Flood Control Split and Request

ByBill Branch

5 February 2003 39

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Flood Control Split Request

All AOPs and DOPs had been developed with 5.1 Maf flood control at Arrow and 2.1 at MicaBC Hydro requested operation to the 3.6 Maf at Arrow and 4.08 Maf at Mica on 27 November 2001This was agreed on 22 February 2002 for operating year 2001-2002 and initiatedBC Hydro requested 3.6 Maf Arrow and 4.08 Maf Mica on 25 June 2002 for operation in 2002-2003US agreed on 7 November 2002Principles for implementation in the TSR were distributed November 2002

5 February 2003 40


Agenda Item VI(B.5)

AOP and DOP Status

ByJohn Hyde and Tom Siu

5 February 2003 41

ColumbiaRiverTreaty

Update on AOP and DOP Status

AOP/DDPB• Objective is to return to Treaty schedule by simultaneous

preparation of 07, 08, and 09 AOP/DDPB’s• Using Streamline Method for loads & resources for all three

AOP/DDPB’s• Full set of hydroregulation Step I/II/III studies for 08AOP/DDPB.• Use Streamline Method for 07 & 09AOP operating criteria• Normal Step II/III critical period studies for 07 & 09 DDPB

Capacity Entitlement calculation• Use Streamline Method for 07 & 09DDBP Energy Entitlement

calculation• Expect completion of studies by July 2003

DOP• Considering use of 06AOP operating criteria for 04DOP. Will

decide in within few weeks.

5 February 2003 42


Agenda Item VI(B.6)

BiOp Related Activities

ByCindy Henriksen and Rick Pendergrass

5 February 2003 43

ColumbiaRiverTreaty BiOp Related Activities

NOAA Fisheries is preparing the 2003 Findings LetterCanadian issues include:• RPA 24: request and negotiate agreements for

Storage of 1 MAF U.S. flow augmentation in Arrow.• RPA 25: request and negotiate agreements for

spring storage and summer release of non-Treaty storage.

• RPA 26: request and negotiate agreements for additional release of Canadian storage during July and August - Entities received a report from CRTOC March 16, 2001.

USFWS Proposed Action – Implement VarQ at Libby consistent with NEPA and Canadian coordination.

5 February 2003 44


Agenda Item VI(C.1)

HydrometCommittee

Update

ByEric Weiss

5 February 2003 45

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Hydromet Committee Update

Activities since last PEBCOM meeting• 2002 Annual Report issued• Liaison with data collection agencies continues

– Environment Canada policies under review

• Flood control / TSR / AER forecasting support – Water supply forecasting methods under review

• ESP• Libby

– TSR / AER data submittals for Canadian Treaty projects being vetted by Canadian Section

– Data submittal procedures in POP under review

5 February 2003 46


Agenda Item VI(C.2)

Non-Treaty Storage Agreement Update

ByKelvin, Tony, & Pam

5 February 2003 47

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Non-Treaty Storage

Two agreements, BPA-BCH NTS Agreement and BPA-Mid-C Agreement, both scheduled to expire 30 Jun 03BPA-BCH NTS Agreement extended one year to permit BC Water Use Plan to inform negotiations, now scheduled to expire 30 Jun 04Mid-C’s offered same 1-year extension, only Eugene has accepted so far, others to decide as expiration date approachesBest guess – some other Mid-C’s will extend 1 year, unlikely to enter into longer-term new NTS

5 February 2003 48


Agenda Item VI(C.3)

Columbia Water Use Plan Update

ByAllan Woo

5 February 2003 49

ColumbiaRiverTreaty WUP Guidelines - 13 Step Process

Steps 1-3 Initiate, scope Issues, and develop process

Steps 4-5• Define objectives and gather additional information

Steps 6-7• Create operating alternatives and assess tradeoffs

Steps 8-9• Document and submit draft WUP to Comptroller

Steps 10-12• Comptroller/DFO Review and decision

Steps 12-13 • Monitor compliance and implement periodic review

5 February 2003 50

ColumbiaRiverTreaty Columbia WUP Status

Mica, Revelstoke, Keenleyside• Initiated 2000• In Steps 5 and 6 (gather information and create

operating alternatives)• complete draft WUP by fall 2004

Duncan• Initiated 2001• In Steps 5 and 6• complete draft WUP by fall 2003

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