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TRANSCRIPT
2
Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been prepared using information available to OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (“Norilsk Nickel” or “NN”) at the time of preparation of the presentation. External or other factors may have impacted on the business of Norilsk Nickel and the content of this presentation, since its preparation. In addition all relevant information about Norilsk Nickel may not be included in this presentation. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.
Any forward looking information herein has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. Forward looking statements, by the nature, involve risk and uncertainty and Norilsk Nickel cautions that actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Reference should be made to the most recent Annual Report for a description of the major risk factors. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Norilsk Nickel, which does not undertake an obligation to release any revision to these statements.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitation to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in Norilsk Nickel, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
Nickel 50%
Copper 25%
Platinum 9%
Gold 1%
3
Norilsk Nickel At a Glance
Source: Norilsk Nickel
Mining operationsDevelopment projectsSmelting/refining operationsHeadquarters and sales offices
NN USA
Harjavalta
NN Europe, UK
Overseas,Switzerland
NN Corporate Headquarters
Chita Copper Project
Polar DivisionKola MMC
NN Beijing
NN Shanghai
NN Hong Kong
Nkomati Nickel
Tati Nickel Black SwanLake Johnston
CawseWaterloo
Key highlights
World leader in nickel and palladium with top 5 positions in platinum, cobalt, rhodium and a strong presence in copper
Long-life, low-cost, vertically integrated producer
Strong portfolio of growth opportunities both domesticallyand internationally
Solid financial standing and balance sheet supported by hefty free cash generation ability
Committed to returning capital to shareholders
Extensive worldwide operations Revenue mix by products & destinations
Key financials
Source: Company dataNote: * Financial results of discontinued operations (OGK-3 and Stillwater) were deconsolidated for 2009-2010
Palladium15%
US$ mln 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011
Revenue 11,923 17,119 13,980 8,542 12,775 14,122
EBITDA 7,736 10,253 5,807 4,198 7,209 7,239
margin (%) 65 60 42 49 56 51
Net income 5,965 5,276 -555 2,504 5,234 3,626
margin (%) 50 31 nm 29 41 26
Net debt -1,388 4,064 4,445 1,685 -2,608 3,514
Net debt/ EBITDA
-0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.5
Europe55%
Asia23%
North Amer-ica
13%
Russia10%
$ 13,297
mln
Norilsk Nickel – Market Positions by Production
4
Norilsk Nickel is a world leader in nickel and palladium production with strong positions in platinum, copper, cobalt and rhodium
Source: GFMS, Brook Hunt, CRU, companies’ results announcements, Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, estimates from company reportsNotes:1 Cobalt metal
18%14%
8% 7%5% 4%
0
100
200
300
NN
Val
e
Jin
chu
an
Xst
rata
BH
P
SM
M
(kt)
(ko
z)
41%
16%12% 6% 5%
0500
1,500
2,500
3,500
NN
An
glo
pla
ts
Imp
lats
Sti
llw
ater
Lo
nm
in
11%
15%13%
12% 10%
8%
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
Jin
chu
an NN
Sh
erri
tt
Ch
amb
ish
i
Cat
ang
a
Mu
rrin
(to
nn
es)
21%11% 11%
5%
32%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
An
glo
pla
ts
Imp
lats
Lo
nm
in NN
Aq
uar
ius
(ko
z)
Co
del
co
Fre
epo
rt
BH
PX
stra
ta
Rio
Tin
to
A.A
mer
ican
S.C
op
per
KG
HM NN
11% 9%
6%5%
4% 4% 4% 3%2%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
(kt)
35%
23%15% 12% 6%
4%0
100
200
300
An
glo
pla
ts
Imp
lats
Lo
nm
in
NN
Aq
uar
ius
No
rth
am
(ko
z)
Nickel Palladium Platinum
Rhodium Cobalt 1 Copper
Xst
rata
6%
1Q 2011 1Q 2012
652 612
29
37
1Q 2011 1Q 2012
164 156
6
10
1Q 2011 1Q 2012
90 85
4
4
5
Nickel 295-305kt including 235-240kt from Russia
Copper 365-370kt including 355-360kt from Russia
Palladium 2.7-2.75mln oz incl 2.6.-2.65mln oz from Russia
Platinum 675-685koz including 650-660koz from Russia
Production Update
Nickel, ‘000 tones Copper, ‘000 tones Palladium, ‘000 ounces Platinum, ‘000 ounces
Norilsk Nickel International
Source: Company data
Nickel output increased by 7% q-o-q due to superior performance of Russian divisions (+3%), launch of Lake Johnston in Australia and better loading rate of Harjavalta refinery in Finland
Copper production decreased by 6% q-o-q due to anticipated decline of output at Russian divisions
Palladium output was lower by 5% q-o-q as a result of accumulation of unfinished metal at Russian operations
Russian operations
1Q 2012 production results 2012 production outlook
233 236 237 235-240
1Q 2011 1Q 2012
57 59
14 17
7176
17094
88681
649 166
1. Key industrial assets Construction, expansion and launch of facilities
Reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions and improving utilization of sulfur by Polar Division
Shift to roasting-free briquetting of concentrates
6
Russian Operations: Key Investment Priorities2012 total capital expenditures budget for Russian operations is more than US$ 3 bn
Source: Norilsk Nickel data
2. Provision of reliable energy supply Development of Pelyatkinskoye gas condensate field and
construction of new gas and condensate pipe lines
Reconstruction of power generation
Creation an emergency power supply control system
3. Company’s transport autonomy improvement Construction of proprietary transshipment terminal in Murmansk
4. Support and development of the mineral resources Geologic prospecting of areas adjacent to operating mines in
Taimyr and Kola Peninsula
6. Other
Development of polymetallic deposits in Zabaikalsky Territory
Finalization of design of Bystrinsky mining and processing works and go forward with design of Bugdainsky mining and processing works
Continue construction of rail road to Bystrinsky mining and processing works, complete design and begin construction of road to Bugdainsky mining and processing works
5. Social obligations Continue implementation of the incentive program for acquiring
continental property for employees on beneficial terms
Continuing of construction of “Arena - Norilsk Sports and Entertainment Center” in Norilsk
2011 CAPEX Breakdown
Mineral re-
source
base
30%
Concen-tra-tion1%
Metal-
lurgy
8%
Power
en-gi-
neering8%
Aux-il-
iary fa-cili-ties16%
Non-in-dus-trial fa-cili-ties6%
Equip-
ment not incl. in
the construction
ex-pense
budgets26%
Other in-
vestmen
ts5%
8
Solid Financial PerformanceStrong financial performance driven by efficient cost management
Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin
Source: Company dataNote: * Financial results of discontinued operations (OGK-3 and
Stillwater) were deconsolidated for 2009-2010
2008 2009* 2010* 20110
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
13.98
8.542
12.775
14.122
$ m
ln.
2008 2009* 2010* 20110
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5.807
4.198
7.209 7.239
$ m
ln.
2008 2009* 2010* 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
42
49
56
51
%
9
Adjusted EBITDA increased up to US$ 7,239 mln in 2011
Growth of cost metal sales largely explained by:
- absolute growth of labor expenses
- increase of cost of raw materials bought from 3d parties due to growth of purchased volumes
Export customs duties mostly on nickel and copper increased by US$ 469 mln accounting for major part of growth of SG&A expenses
Depreciation & amortization charge amounted to US$ 761mln (-5% y-o-y)
CAPEX amounted to US$ 2,232 mln
EBITDA Analysis
Adjusted EBITDA bridge, US$ mln
Source: Company data
EBITDA 2010 Metal sales Cost of metal sales SG&A expenses D&A Other EBITDA 2011
7209 7239
1171
- 744 - 578
88 93
10
In 2011 cash costs increased by US$ 629 mln mostly due to following:
- US$ 307 mln – growth of purchased semiproducts to enhance loading rates at Company’s plants
- US$ 88 mln – spike of social security tax rate (from 26% in 2010 up to 34% in 2011), growth of wages
Proprietary fleet and improvements in logistics contributed to decrease in transportation expense by US$ 22 mln
3d parties services cost decreased by 9% due to shift to in-house services instead of third party services
Costs Analysis
Bridge of cash costs1, US$ mln
Source: Company dataNote: 1 Before netting by-product sales for metal divisions
Cash costs 2010 Labor Cost of metals bought from 3d
parties
Materials 3d parties services Utilities Transportation Cash costs 2011
244307 98
-52
54
-224417
5046
As of 2011 year-end, total debt equaled US$ 5.1 bn, on back of US$ 1.6 bn cash pile
Erosion of cash pile in 2011 was due to buy backs implemented in order to return capital to shareholders
Current level of leverage below 0.5x Net debt/EBITDA is comfortable
Recommended annual dividend for pay-out in 2012 is US$ 6.2 per share
11
Debt & Liquidity Position
Cash & debt dynamics, US$ mln
Source: Company data
2008 2009 2010 2011
6440
5317
2797
5141
4445
1685
-2608
3514
1995
3632
5405
1627
Total debt Net debt Cash & cash equivalents
13
Strategy Goals
Become a TOP-5 major international miner by market capitalization and EBITDA
… allowing the management to move the Company to a strategically new level
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
1
.
2
6
7
3
4
5
Implement upside potential through organic and M&A growth at world class deposits in regions of core competitive advantage
Ensure growth of production while maintaining EBITDA margin for current assets and obtaining EBITDA margin similar to top-5 peers at new projects with average margin of 50% at mid cycle prices
Ensure stability and security of core Russian operations by warranting infrastructure and services’ costs at levels competitive to any third party suppliers
Safeguard Company's key competitive advantage as the lowest cash-cost nickel producer
Diversify through expanding in Russia and internationally at assets that either industry Tier 1 assets (first cost quartile, first quartile in terms of annual production), or meet Company’s investment goals
Distribute capital to shareholders in amounts exceeding Company's investment and funding requirements while preserving robust balance sheet
363
546
0
250
500
2011 2025
(00
0s
t)
14
Key Strategic Pillars
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
.
287342
0
150
300
2011 2025
(00
0s
t)
106
150
0
100
200
2011 2025
(to
nn
es)
Nickel
PGMs+41%
+19%
Copper+49%
Product diversification 3 International expansion
Adding new metals to current
basket: iron ore, coal,
molybdenum, etc
Lowering revenue volatility
and diversifying revenue mix
Creating additional
shareholder value through
implementation of new
projects
Strong existing footprint
forming a firm base for future
development
International expansion as
function of product
diversification (Australia,
Indonesia, etc.)
International growth to be
driven by high return projects
1 Growth of output in Russia and Finland
2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Russian Divisions own production
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Russian Divisions own production NNH production Total
15
Metal Production by Russian Divisions & NNHNickel production outlook, kt
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
Copper production outlook, kt
PGMs production outlook, t Growth of metal output will be achieved through:
— growth of mined ore tonnages at existing mines and
brownfield projects
— launch of Chita Project (copper)
— development of Maslovskoe deposit (PGMs)
— improvements of enrichment and smelting technologies
— efficient smelting and refining capacity loading of Polar
Division and Kola MMC
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Russian Divisions own production Chita project
16
Maslovskoe Deposit: Emergence of New Mining District Mineral resource base of Maslovskoe deposit comprises
215 mln tonnes of ore
Construction includes:
— mine – over 7 mln tonnes ore pa
— enrichment plant – 6 mln tonnes ore pa
— tailings’ infrastructure
— other infrastructure
Total construction period including additional exploration
works – ca 12 years
Capital budget – ca $2.0 bln
Potential for partial use of existing infrastructure of
Zapolyarny mine Reserves under
categories С1 +С2 Metal grades
Palladium (‘000 ounces) 35 462 4.56 g/t
Platinum (‘000 ounces) 12 475 1.78 g/t
Copper (‘000 tonnes) 1 122 0.51 %
Nickel (‘000 tonnes) 728 0.33 %
Cobalt (‘000 tonnes) 34 0.016 %
Gold (‘000 ounces) 1 318 0.19 g/t
Mineral resource base of Maslovskoe deposit
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
Map of Maslovskoe deposit
Norilsk-1 deposit
Maslovskoe deposit
In-depth ore-bearing intrusion contourExploration and prospecting wells
17
Maslovskoe Deposit: Delivering Growth of Production
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Nickel, ‘000 tonnes Copper, ‘000 tonnes PGMs, tonnes
Development timeline
Projected metals’ output
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
Geological exploration Feasibility study Mine construction Construction of concentrator
Construction of tailings dump
Commissioning & ramp-up
Construction documentation
Mine
Enrichment plant
Tailings pit
18
Chita project is being implemented as public private partnership – Norilsk Nickel is responsible for development of deposits,
government – for railroad construction
Partnership Passport after amendments envisages 80.4 bln RUR Norilsk Nickel’s investments, including 8.06 bln RUR
railroad construction, as well as 72.3 bln RUR deposits’ development and construction of plants
Railroad to be commissioned by 2011 year-end, construction works have started
NPV – ca 7bn RUR, discounted payback period – less than 15 years
Chita Project: Development of World Class Mining District
Bystrinsky plant Bugdainsky plant Railroad construction
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
8,726
13,356 13,439
17,247
6,706
Norilsk Nickel’s capex under Chita project, mln RUR1
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy Notes:1 Not including VAT
Preparing for full scale construction works in region…
19
Chita Project: Snapshot on Deposits Mineral reserves of Bystrinskoe deposit under categories
B+С1+C2 – 292 mln tonnes of ore, including: — copper 2 073k tonnes @ 0.71%— gold 236 tonnes @ 0.81 g/t— iron ore 68 mln tonnes @ 23.2%— silver 1.1k tonnes @ 3.63%
Mineral reserves of Bugdainskoe deposit under categories B+С1+C2 – 813 mln tonnes of ore, including:
— molybdenum 600k tonnes @ 0.08%— gold 11 tonnes @ 0.28 g/t— silver 194 tonnes @ 4.96 g/t
Estimated annual production:— ore 26 mln tonnes
(16 mln t – Bugdainskoe, 10 mln t – Bystrinskoe)— copper in concentrate 66k tonnes— molybdenum in concentrate 12k tonnes— iron ore concentrate @ 61% 2 136k tonnes— gold 7 tonnes
Mine life – over 30 years
Map of south-eastern part of Zabaikalsk Region
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
20
Chita Project: Implementation Timeline In 2H 2011 active construction works have started at Bystrinsky plant
Comprehensive engineering roadmap is being finalised for Bugdainsky plant with construction works to be launched in 2012
Bystrinsky mining and enrichment plant to be commissioned in 2015
Bugdainsky mining and enrichment plant to be commissioned in 2016
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bystrinsky plant
Bugdainsky plant
Railroad construction
Electricity grids
Exploration works Prefeasibility study Feasibility study Construction Commissioning
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
21
Key Infrastructure Development Areas
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
.
Modernise generating facilities in Norilsk region (Thermal Power Plants – 1, 2, 3 and Ust-Khantayskaya Hydro Power Plant)
Upgrade electricity grid to increase throughput from Kureyskaya and Ust-Khantayskaya Hydro Power Plants
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 2.1 billion
Utilities
Ramp-up of Pelyatkinskoe gas condensate field to secure energy raw materials supplies to Norilsk region
Construct gas condensate pipeline from Pelyatka and Dudinka
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 4 billion
Gas supplies
Construct Arctic sea fleet to enhance transport independence
Upgrade sea and river fleet
Build logistics hub in Murmansk region
Build fuel terminal in Arkhangelsk for proprietary ice breaking tanker
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 3.2 billion
Transport
Modernise facilities and equipment of supporting subsidiaries: Polar Construction Company, Norilsk Support Facility, Norilsknikelremont, Norilsk Industrial Transport, etc.
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 5.7 billion
Auxiliary infrastructure
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
14491629
17891923
23
3 key areas to watch out:
Level of Chinese nickel pig iron production:
- potential additions of new pig iron capacity in next 1-2 years with lower operating costs
- appreciation of RMB against US Dollar and rising costs for energy, labor and transport to push high cost operations to $9-12/lb in the medium term
- Indonesia’s taxes on raw materials exports and introduction of export ban starting from 2014
Ramp-up of new big greenfield projects:
- Looming oversupply as a result of successful commissioning of up to 300ktpa additional capacity
- Strong track record of persistent delays and technical failures, reconfirmed by recent force-majeure at Vale’s flagship Goro project
Demand outlook:
- Macroeconomic instability is taking its toll
- Likely pick-up in stainless steel production in US
- Continuing growth in global consumption from non-stainless steel applications, namely non-ferrous alloys (superalloys) in aerospace sector due to increase in aircraft build rates
Nickel supply, ‘000t
Nickel Market Outlook
Source: Deutsche Bank, Macquarie research
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
15331633
17531855
Nickel consumption, ‘000t
24
NPI emerged as response to nickel price escalation in mid-2000s and is currently produced and consumed by China only
NPI is high cost production due to significant energy intensity of process and transportation costs for ore sourced from Philippines and Indonesia
Key components of cash costs for BF – coking coal (58%), ore (15%), transportation (13%), for EAF – power (30%), ore (26%), coking coal (20%) and transportation (17%)
Brook Hunt estimates that at price level $18.3k/t Ni, production of 110kt of Ni in form of NPI is uneconomic and cash burning
Announced export taxes (25% in 2012, 50% in 2013) to be followed with export ban on nickel ore from Indonesia in 2014 (53% of Chinese ore import in 2011) provide efficient long-term floor to nickel price
NPI: Key Swinging Factor in Nickel Market Equation
2011 nickel industry cost curve
Cash cost composition BF vs EAF
Source: Brook Hunt, HSBC
Nickel ore imports to China
Japan19%
EU23%
North America
24%China16%
Other
18%
25
Palladium Market BalanceGlobal supply & demand balance
Source: Johnson Matthew, Renaissance Capital, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Macquarie research
Pt to Pd ratio in European autocats in 2009-2011
Other1%
Dental9%
Jewelry8%
Autocats57%
Chemicals
5%Electronics
20%
Palladium consumption by industry & regions
Primary palladium consumption exceeds its production due to a number of fundamental factors
Gap in consumption and production has been mitigated by deliveries from the Russian state stockpile
In recent years, oversupply was absorbed by strong emergence of investment demand
Since 2011, no influence on the market is expected to come from deliveries of Russian palladium reserves
In long run, consumption growth rate should continue to exceed production growth rate and move palladium market into sustained deficit
26
Palladium consumption is projected to grow driven by the auto
industry (66% of gross palladium demand):
continuing growth of palladium demand in autocats as
EM and US car markets have favorable outlook
full implementation of Euro-V in light duty vehicles
return to normal mode of operation by Japanese car industry post devastating earthquake in March 2011
continued growth of palladium content in diesel and
heavy trucks engines
end-user demand should continue to grow strongly over
the medium term due to tighter emissions regulations
growth of car market in China, mostly represented by
gasoline-powered vehicles whose catalysts tend to be
more palladium intensive (70% of all light vehicles
production globally)
Wider recognition of palladium as a metal of choice by high-end
jewellery
Modest increase in palladium demand for electronics, chemical,
and glass industries
Palladium Demand: ConsumptionUS car sales are holding up well…
Source: Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, VTB Research, Renaissance Capital, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie research
… and car ownership in China is yet to catch up
Car
ow
ners
hip
per
1,0
00
peop
le
(un
its)
27
Investments: Source For Additional Growth In Palladium Demand
In 2010-2011 number of palladium ETPs increased from 2 to 9
After reaching historic highs in Jan 2011 palladium ETP holdings declined to 1.6 moz by year-end
Despite this, fundamentals for palladium remain robust –
stagnating supply, evaporation of sales from Russian state
stockpile vs continuing growth of car production especially
in EM
Net long positions have recently bounced sharply due to
combination of factors – short covering and new inflows
Since beginning of 2012, palladium ETF demand has
already partially recovered and is expected to continue
growing
In long run price gap between palladium and platinum is
envisaged to further narrow
Source: Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, Bloomberg, VTB Capital
New surge of investor interest to palladium
Bounce back of Nymex speculative net longs
28
IR Contact Details
Alexey IvanovInvestor RelationsMMC Norilsk Nickel
Sergey BelyakovInvestor RelationsMMC Norilsk Nickel
Tel: +7 495 786 83 20Fax: +7 495 797 86 13e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
22, Voznesensky Pereulok,Moscow, Russia, 125993