CollectiveStressintheDigitalAge

ProposalforPh.D.ResearchinComputationalSocialSciencebyTalhaOz

Advisor:AndrewCrooksCommittee: Arie Croitoru,WilliamG.Kennedy,AnthonyStefanidis,TrevorA.Thrall

DepartmentofComputationalandDataSciencesGeorgeMasonUniversity– January9,2016

Overview

1. Introduction&Motivation• DefinitionofCollectiveStress• C.S.intheDigitalAge• PracticalProblems

• Trending• Multifaceted

• ResearchProblems• WeakEmpiricalBase• ChangingNorms/Conditions

2. Background• [RQ]DisasterResearch• [Method]CrisisInformatics

3. CSSofCollectiveStress• Opportunities• Challenges• RelatedWork

4. ResearchPlan• ResearchQuestions• ResearchDesign• ResearchMethods• Verification&Validation

5. Conclusion• ResearchOutcome• Contributions• Timeline

CollectiveStress(CS)

“Acollectivestressoccurswhenmanymembers ofasocialsystemfailtoreceiveexpectedconditionsoflifefromthesystem”–Barton(1969)

• Expectedconditionsoflife• [Objective]Physiologicalandsafetyneeds(Maslow,1943)

• Hunger,shelter,etc.• [Subjective]Maintainingstandardofliving(Barton,1969)

• Primitiveconditions=>relativelylessdeprivation• [Preconditions]forbasicneedsatisfactions(Maslow,1943)

• Freedomandjustice

1010

CollectiveStressSituations(c.s.s.)

Eventsthatdisrupt orthreaten thesocialsystems

• Dissensus(internal)• Technologicalandman-madedisasters• Economiccrises

• depression,hyperinflation,orstockmarketcrashes

• Politicalbreakdowns• riots,revolutions,civilwars

• Governmentoppression• masspurges,suppressionofdissent,andgrowthoftyranny

• Consensus(external)• naturaldisasters,terrorattacks,epidemicdiseases,lossofmarketsorsourcesofsupply

Motivation:CollectiveStressintheDigitalAge?

• PracticalProblems• Causeseriousmultifacetedsocialproblems• Trending(frequencyandimpactisincreasing)

• ResearchProblems• Behavioralnorms/conditionschanging

• Socialmedia• Empiricalbaseisweak

• Unobservabilityproblem(Wallace,1956)

NatCatSERVICE

Loss events worldwide 1980 – 2014 Number of events

© 2015 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2015

Number

Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm)

Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

200

400

600

800

1 000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source:http://www.preventionw

eb.net/files/44

281_19

8020

14paketw

orldusde

4zu3

.pdf

Source:http://econ

omicsand

peace.org/wp-content/up

loads/20

16/11/Glob

al-Terrorism-In

dex-20

16.2.pdf

“FreedomintheWorldhasrecordedadeclineinglobalfreedomineachofthepast10years”

https://fre

edom

house.org/sites/default/files/FH_

FITW

_Rep

ort_20

16.pdf

PracticalProblems(cont’d)- Multifaceted• Psychosocial(Norrisetal.,2002)

• Range• Specific(e.g.PTSD,depression,&anxiety)• Nonspecific(e.g.demoralization)• Healthproblems(e.g.sleep)• Chronicpr.inliving(e.g.relationshippr.)• Resourceloss(e.g.socialembeddedness)• Problemsspecifictoyouth(e.g.clinginess)

• Magnitude• 51%moderateimpairment,indicativeofprolongedstress

• 39%severeorverysevereimpairment,indicativeofsignificantpsychopathologyordistress

• Sociodemographic• Destructionofhouseholddwelling• Movingtootherregionsorfleeing• Conflictive(insteadoftherapeutic)• Socialvulnerability(ethnicminorities)

• Socioeconomic• Lossinassetvalue(recoverycost)• Operationalvulnerability• Gapincreases(lowerincomeareworse)• Lostproductivityandearning• Presenteeism(workingw/lowmental)

• Sociopolitical• Politicaldisruptions&socialactivism• Scapegoatingandblame(corrosive)• Governmentoppression

Motivation:CollectiveStressintheDigitalAge?

• PracticalProblems• Causeseriousmultifacetedsocialproblems• Trending(frequencyandimpactisincreasing)

• ResearchProblems• Behavioralnorms/conditionschanging

• Socialmedia• Empiricalbaseisweak

• Unobservabilityproblem(Wallace,1956)

ResearchProblems– EmpiricalWeakness

• Unobservability(Wallace,1956)• Beinginimpactarea&collectingdataisdifficultincollectivestresssituations• Disastersareratherrareevents

• Theknowledgebaseisempiricallyweak• Quarantelli(2005)• Tierney,Lindell,andPerry(2001)• Drabek (1986)

• Thetimestheyarea-changin’• Earlierfindingsgetoutdatedasthesocial,culturalandpoliticalnormschange• Digitalrevolution(socialnetwork,internet,andmobile)ishappening• From“BigLimitations”to“BigData”

ResearchProblems– BehaviorChange

Background

• Disasterresearch(traditionalsocialscientificstudiesofdisasters)• Sociology,anthropology,politicalScience,economics

• CrisisInformatics• CSSofCollectiveStress

TraditionalSocialSciencesofDisasters

• Sociology• Disastermyths,socialcontrol,socialfactors(age,gender,race,etc.)• Drabek’s Inventorycontains654MCin146topics(6systemlevels,4phases)

• Anthropology• Cultural&historical;criticalofmediaportrays,refugeecamps

• Politicalscience• Elections,governmentspending,responsibilityandblame

• Economics• Incentivesforgov.investment,economicimpact

CrisisInformatics

SI CSS

DR

CI: Thestudyofthedesign,uses andconsequences ofinformationandcommunicationtechnologies(ICT)intimesofcrisis (Kling2007)

• CI:Systemdesign• Fordigitalvolunteers:toallowthemcrowdsource(aka

micro-task)productively• Forofficialresponseagencies:toprovidethemwith

informationincontextforbetterdecisionmaking

• CSS:Traditionalsocialscientificinquiries• Howtolearnsocialbehaviorsrecollectivestresssituations?• Beyondemergencyresponse

• CI&CSS:BigCrisisData&Computationalmethods• Publicposts,newsreports,socialnetworks

CSSofCollectiveStress

Socialnetworks

Publicposts

Newsreports

Computationalmodels

Dataanalysis

Socialtheories

Recovery- Restoration- Reconstruction

Mitigation- Adjustments- Hazardperceptions

Response- Pre-impact- Post-impact

Preparedness- Planning- Warning

Opportunities

• Big• Morespecificmeasurements=>models&theories• Allowsanalysisofmanymanifestationsofabehavior• Allowsdetectingsmalldifferenceswithhigherconfidencelevels

• Always-on• Allowscollectingretrospectiveandlongitudinaldata

• Non-reactive• Subjectsareunlikelytochangetheirbehaviorsbecauseofpresenceofresearchers

Challenges

• Incomplete&inaccessible• Demographics(representation,samplingchallenge)• Constructvalidity(doesitreallyrepresentwhatIintendtomeasure)

• Drifting• Featuresofplatformschange• Thewaypeopleusechanges

• Algorithmicallyconfounded• SMareengineeredtoinducespecificbehaviors(for-profit)

• Dirty(spam,junk,bots)• Sensitive(privacy,ethics)

RelatedWork- 2013Bostonbombings

• (LinandMargolin,2014)• Inter-communalemotionsandexpressions• Factors’predictivepowerfortheleveloffear,sympathyandsolidarityincities

• residentsofacityvisitedtheaffected-city,geographicdistance,andsocialtie• Proxies

• Fear:SentimentsinSentiSense (fearandjoy)• Solidarity:#bostonstrong• Sympathy:#prayforboston

2015Paristerrorattacks

• (WenandLin,2016)• Individualdifferencesinrespondingtotheterroristattacks

• Factors:geographicproximity,mediaexposure,socialsupport,linguisticindicators,andgender• Distress:anxiety,sadness,andanger

• Proxies• LIWC:anxiety,sadness,andanger(supportsbothEnglishandFrench)• Mediaexposure:URLscontaining“terror”or“attack”• Socialsupport:friends&followerscount• Linguisticindicators:LIWC’scognitivecomplexityandpsychologicaldistancingmetrics• Gender:Genderize API

ResearchPlan

• ResearchQuestions• ResearchDesign• ResearchMethods• Verification&Validation

ResearchQuestions

1. Doespartisanpredispositioneffectattributionofresponsibilityandblame?Iscomplainingcontagiousorclusteredinman-madedisasters?• Flintwatercrisis:completegovernmentalfailureandaman-madedisaster• Thesourceforblame;partisanpredisposition;concernedgeographies;contagionofcomplaining.

2. [Positionpaper]WhatisCSSofc.s.s.?Opportunitiesandchallenges?Stateoftheart?

ResearchQuestions– cont’d

1. Arecollectivestresslevelshigherinnaturaldisastersthanthetechnologicalones(Rubonis andBickman,1991)?Whatarethec.s.s.relatedcharacteristics?• Massviolence>Technological(Natural)>Natural(Technological)Norrisetal.(2002)

2. Whoadoptswhichdisasterparadigminrespondingtoc.s.s.?Dodistresslevelschangefortheadoptersofdifferentparadigms?• People’ssinfulbehavior;divinejustice,repentance,moralimprovement• Nature;technical-organizationalsolutions,shorttermpoliticalactions• Structuralinequality,socialinjustice;socialchange,large-scalepoliticalreforms• Culture;victims’perceptionofownsuffering,utilizationoflocalresources

Design

• ImportantRQsonc.s.s.yetscienceisunclear• Lackofstudiesorconflictingfindings

• Morespecificpracticalhypotheses

• Operationalization• Fromtheoreticalconstructtoproxies• Ensuringconstructvalidity• Typeofstudy(e.g.panelstudy,focusgroup,cohort)

Researchquestions(basedonmyreviewonTSSDR)

Findandcollectc.s.s.data(crisislex.org orown)

Hypotheses(Practical)

Operationalization(Onsocialmedia)

InterpretingResults(Statisticaltestsandvisualizations)

Methods&Analysis

• SocialNetworkAnalysis• Metricsatindiv,dyad,networklevel• ERGM,SAOM

• GeospatialAnalysis• ChoroplethMaps

• QuantitativeAnalysis• Uni-,multi-variateanalysis,etc.

• MachineLearning• ClassificationandClustering

Verification&Validation

• Implementingallthedesignstepsright• Datacollection

• “ifyouwanttomeasurechange,don’tchangethemeasure”• Dataexploration

• Statisticalsummaries• Jupyter Notebook&GitHub

• Opensource&public

• Doingtherightthing• Collection

• Samplingtechniques• Operationalization

• Constructvalidity• Analysis

• Crossvalidation

Conclusion

• ResearchOutcomes• Contributions• Timeline

ResearchOutcomes

• Fourpapers• AttributionofResponsibilityandBlame• ComparisonofCollectiveStressLevelsatDifferentKindsofEvents• DisasterParadigmsandCollectiveStress• [Positionpaper]CSSofCollectiveStress

Contributions

• Addingtotheknowledgebaseofsociologyofdisastersandrelatedfieldswithnewempiricalfindingsaboutthecharacteristicsofcollectivestresssituationsinthedigitalage• Developingmodelsthatcanaccountfortheobservedvariationsinsocialresponsesovermanycasesofcollectivestresssituations• Contributingtothefieldofcomputationalsocialsciencebybuildingnovelresearchdesigns,developingnewcomputationalandquantitativemethods,andbyexploitingnewlyavailabledatasources(bigcrisisdata)

Timeline

Questions

• Thankyou!

TheDigitalAge

• Behaviorsnotsounobservable(Resnyansky,2015;Houstonetal.,2015)• Volunteershelplocatedisastervictims;identifyandlistwaystohelp• Raiseanddevelopawarenessofanevent• Provideandreceivemental/behavioralhealthsupport• Expressemotions,concerns,well-wishes;memorializevictims• Collectrecoverysupportfunds;donateandreceivedonations• Consume,produce,andsharenewscoverageoftheevent• Discusssocio-politicalandscientificcausesandimplicationsofandresponsibilityforevents

TheDigitalAge– cont’d

• Thewayspeopleexperience&respondtocollectivestressareCHANGING• Individualsturntosocialmediainresponse&recovery(DaileyandStarbird 2016)• EmotionsexpressedonSMarecontagious(Krameretal.2014;OzandBisgin 2016)• Legacymediaexposureincreasesstresslevels(Holman2014),sodoesSM• Globalizationleadstocosmopolitanization(Beck2002),effectsc.s.s.atmacro-scale• Networkedindividualism:connectednessvsembeddedness(Rainie &Wellman2014)• SMamplifiesechochambersandgroupidentification=>c.s.++(Quattrociocchi 2016)• Increasedawarenessinthedigitalageraisesexpectationfromthegov.&thesociety.Assolutionsaredelayed,ignoredorobstructed,fearturnsintoanger(Neal1984)

2011Alabamatornado&2012SandyHookshooting

• (Glasgowetal.2016)• Comparedtheexpressionsofgratitudeforsocialsupport• Alabamahadproportionallyfewerexpressionsofgratitudeforthesupportreceived

ResearchProblems– Sociology

• Drabek’s inventory(1986):654majorconclusionsin146topicsover• 6systemlevels:Individual,group,organizational,community,society,andinternational• 4disasterphases:preparedness(planningandwarning),response(pre- andpost-impact),recovery(restorationandreconstruction),andmitigation(hazardperceptionsandadjustments)

• (When)shouldweexpectsocialchaosandpanic?• Whendoesconflictratherthansolidarityemerge?• Whataretherolesofsocialfactors(e.g.gender,race,diversityorsocialinequalities)?• Whatkindoforganizationscancopewiththeoverloadofcollectivestresssituations?

ResearchProblems– Anthropology• Historical&cultural

• Howdidpeoplerespondtocatastrophesathousandyearsagoandhowdidtheseeffectthesubsequentculturalevolution?

• Howdoescontemporarysocialorder(consumption-basedindustry)intensifyhazardsandfurthereffectthesocietiesallovertheworld?

• Howdoesacultureinterpretdisastersandhowdoesitchangeafterexperiencingthem?

• Criticalof• thewaymediaportraysthevictims• howthedisplacedaretreatedinrefugeecamps• reliefprograms(howculturallyawarearetheyandhowcantheybeimproved?)

ResearchProblems– PoliticalScience

• Howdocollectivestresssituationseffectelections?• Howdothevotersjudgeincumbentpoliticiansintheirpreparednessandresponsetothem?

• Howdocitizensassignresponsibilityandblameincollectivestresssituations?• Howeffectivelydothegovernmentsusethehumanitarianaid?• Towhatextentisthegovernmentaccountableforthecollectivestresssituations?• Whendocollectivestresssituationsfostercooperationorconflict?

ResearchProblems– Economics

• Towhatextenttheeconomyofacountryaffectedbythecollectivestresssituation?• Whydosomegovernmentspreparewellforc.s.s.whileothersdonot?• Whataretheeconomicandpoliticalincentivesofthegovernmentsintheirc.s.s.relatedinvestments?