Zeynep Tufekci, Ph.D.Zeynep Tufekci, Ph.D.

Organized by IDRC Organized by IDRC in collaboration with Cairo University and UNDPin collaboration with Cairo University and UNDP

Cairo University, MayCairo University, May 30th 30th

IInternet and nternet and social changesocial change

Social Media and Social Media and Collective Action Collective Action

Under AutocraciesUnder Autocracies

A Little About MeA Little About Me

Zeynep TufekciZeynep Tufekci Assistant Professor of Sociology Assistant Professor of Sociology Technosociology.orgTechnosociology.org Twitter: @techsocTwitter: @techsoc

Honored to be here!Honored to be here!

A Little About the TalkA Little About the Talk

The credit, of course, goes to the The credit, of course, goes to the amazing people of Egyptamazing people of Egypt

But tools/methods always have an But tools/methods always have an impactimpact

Analyzing/presenting mechanismsAnalyzing/presenting mechanisms

Challenges to Collective Challenges to Collective ActionAction

Information diffusionInformation diffusion Shaping the public sphereShaping the public sphere ““Hidden Preferences”Hidden Preferences” -what do -what do

others think?others think? SynchronizationSynchronization Mass actionMass action

Social Media and ImpactsSocial Media and Impacts

Does social media give us the same Does social media give us the same results, results, maybe maybe just faster?just faster?

Or, does it qualitatively change the Or, does it qualitatively change the dynamics?dynamics?

What Does Social Media What Does Social Media Change?Change?

NetworkNetwork-level-level effects effects– Shape/structure of the networkShape/structure of the network– Speed of transmissionSpeed of transmission

Field effectsField effects– Reshaping/recreating a public sphereReshaping/recreating a public sphere

Network to field effectsNetwork to field effects– Information cascadesInformation cascades– Revealing of hidden preferencesRevealing of hidden preferences

Information/CensorshipInformation/Censorship

Autocracies traditionally hold Autocracies traditionally hold monopoly on broadcast, TV, radio, monopoly on broadcast, TV, radio, printprint

Effective CensorshipEffective Censorship PropagandaPropaganda

Connectivity RevolutionConnectivity Revolution

Connectivity RevolutionConnectivity Revolution

Anti-censorship/citizen Anti-censorship/citizen mediamedia

Spread of cell-phones with camerasSpread of cell-phones with cameras Al-Jazeera, itself plugged into social Al-Jazeera, itself plugged into social

mediamedia Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, Youtube,

Dailymotion, Blogs, SMS, etc.Dailymotion, Blogs, SMS, etc. Game-changerGame-changer

Society-level Prisoner’s Society-level Prisoner’s DilemmaDilemma

How do I know what my neighbor thinks?How do I know what my neighbor thinks? Does my neighbor know what I think?Does my neighbor know what I think? How does my neighbor know that I know How does my neighbor know that I know

what she thinks?what she thinks? Does my neighbor’s neighbor understand Does my neighbor’s neighbor understand

that we are both against the autocracy?that we are both against the autocracy?

(Trans)formation of the public (Trans)formation of the public spheresphere

Public Sphere(s)Public Sphere(s)

Through Facebook/Blogs/Twitter, Through Facebook/Blogs/Twitter, people crossed the redlines and people crossed the redlines and taboos in Egypt, Tunisia, elsewheretaboos in Egypt, Tunisia, elsewhere

New discourses emerged as public New discourses emerged as public discoursesdiscourses

Different than being an individual Different than being an individual dissenterdissenter

Hidden PreferencesHidden Preferences

When there is mass dissent...When there is mass dissent... But everyone is afraid to stick their But everyone is afraid to stick their

neck out!neck out! Information/politicization Information/politicization can occur can occur

cascadescascades – once the floodgates open, – once the floodgates open, it roars.it roars.

Syncronization of Syncronization of Actions/BeliefsActions/Beliefs

HHard for people to synchronize their ard for people to synchronize their beliefs or their actions in a one-to-beliefs or their actions in a one-to-one mannerone manner

Slow, dangerousSlow, dangerous

Mass ActionMass Action

Requires a ready publicRequires a ready public Requires information diffusionRequires information diffusion Requires synchronizationRequires synchronization Requires ... Courage! Requires ... Courage!

– No shortage of that!No shortage of that!

Social Media and Social Media and AutocraciesAutocracies

Social Media has an impact on all Social Media has an impact on all these challenges to collective action these challenges to collective action under autocraciesunder autocracies

Mechanisms combine and interactMechanisms combine and interact

Social Media:Social Media:

Increased participationIncreased participation Faster information diffusionFaster information diffusion Changes to shape of connectivity Changes to shape of connectivity

networksnetworks Audience reshuffling: (re)uniting and Audience reshuffling: (re)uniting and

(re)segmentation(re)segmentation

Increased ParticipationIncreased Participation

Strengthens dynamics on-the groundStrengthens dynamics on-the ground– Can result in consolidation or polarizationCan result in consolidation or polarization

Opens door to oral culture – people who Opens door to oral culture – people who might not have traditional “high” might not have traditional “high” literacyliteracy

Emotional Transference (via Mahmoud Emotional Transference (via Mahmoud Salem)Salem)

Social MediaSocial Media

Does not just allow communicationDoes not just allow communication Allows rapid, many-to-many Allows rapid, many-to-many

communicationcommunication Which is a qualitative change Which is a qualitative change

People could always talk to each People could always talk to each other, but oneother, but one or few or few at a time at a time

TheThe shape of the network shape of the network

Existing:Existing:– One-to-Many (Broadcast)One-to-Many (Broadcast)

Powerful to the powerlessPowerful to the powerless

– One-to-one/few (Face-to-face, One-to-one/few (Face-to-face, telephone, etc.)telephone, etc.) Peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer

Addition:Addition:– Many-to-many Many-to-many

Peer-to-peerPeer-to-peer

One-to-Many Network (Broadcast)

One-to-Many Network (Broadcast)

First Target in a Coup!

First Target in a Coup!

Demonstrators, too!

One-to-OneOne-to-One

Many-to-Many NetworksMany-to-Many Networks

Lessons from EpidemiologyLessons from Epidemiology

Speed of TransmissionSpeed of Transmission Speed of RecoverySpeed of Recovery Shape of NetworkShape of Network

– Hubs and connectivity increases Hubs and connectivity increases contagioncontagion

These factors determine These factors determine

whether a quarantine will workwhether a quarantine will work

Altered DynamicsAltered Dynamics

State is a resource-constrained actorState is a resource-constrained actor Autocracies often have evolved to Autocracies often have evolved to

play “whack-a-protest” play “whack-a-protest” Social media, by allowing mass Social media, by allowing mass

coordination and rapid information coordination and rapid information diffusion, complicates “whack-a-diffusion, complicates “whack-a-protest”protest”

Audience Reshuffling/ Audience Reshuffling/ ReorganizationReorganization

Segmentation of audiencesSegmentation of audiences The attention economy and speedThe attention economy and speed Counter-broadcast and attention Counter-broadcast and attention

monopoly monopoly – (was Tahrir empty on #May27?)(was Tahrir empty on #May27?)

From Wikileaks to Facebook to From Wikileaks to Facebook to #Jan25#Jan25

State ResponsesState Responses

SurveillanceSurveillance– Numbers versus hidingNumbers versus hiding

PropagandaPropaganda– Television versus social-network basedTelevision versus social-network based– Muddying the watersMuddying the waters

CensorshipCensorship– Dictator’s (and Bin Ladin’s Dilemma)Dictator’s (and Bin Ladin’s Dilemma)

Dictator’s DilemmaDictator’s Dilemma

Internet/mobiles integrated into daily Internet/mobiles integrated into daily lifelife

Used for many purposes besides Used for many purposes besides politicspolitics

Cut it off and everyone is upset, Cut it off and everyone is upset, business suffersbusiness suffers

Leave it on and it allows for dissentLeave it on and it allows for dissent Game changer – it can be censored, Game changer – it can be censored,

but that requires a lot of effortbut that requires a lot of effort

Polarization and Civil WarPolarization and Civil War

Social media does not guarantee Social media does not guarantee unityunity

Social media does not create dissent Social media does not create dissent where there is nonewhere there is none

Social media strengthens dynamics Social media strengthens dynamics on the groundon the ground

Bahrain, China, etc. Bahrain, China, etc. Civil war and brutal repressionCivil war and brutal repression

HierarchyHierarchy

Social Media / Open Networks can Social Media / Open Networks can create hierarchiescreate hierarchies

““Power Law” or the 80/20 rule – a Power Law” or the 80/20 rule – a few people/blogs/webpages get most few people/blogs/webpages get most of the links and the attentionof the links and the attention

The process can become self-The process can become self-perpetuatingperpetuating

Preferential AttachmentPreferential Attachment

Hierarchy/GovernanceHierarchy/Governance

Shuffling the network around Shuffling the network around TransparencyTransparency AccountabilityAccountability Self-organization – as in #May27Self-organization – as in #May27

Example: TunisiaExample: Tunisia

Gafsa: 2008. Gafsa: 2008. – Mining town, protests over corrupt hiringMining town, protests over corrupt hiring– Isolated, crushed (quarantined)Isolated, crushed (quarantined)– 28,000 Facebook users in Tunisia28,000 Facebook users in Tunisia

Sidi Bouzid: 2010Sidi Bouzid: 2010– Mohamed Mohamed BouaziziBouazizi’s self-immolation’s self-immolation– Protests spread (viral)Protests spread (viral)– Almost 2,000,000 Facebook users in Almost 2,000,000 Facebook users in

TunisiaTunisia

Thank you! Questions?Thank you! Questions?

Zeynep TufekciZeynep Tufekci

zeynep@umbc.eduzeynep@umbc.edu twitter: @techsoctwitter: @techsoc

www.technosociology.orgwww.technosociology.org