Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Coastal Wave – Surge ModelingR. Luettich, J. Fleming, B. Blanton, C. Kaiser, Jie Gao

NW NE

SW SE

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Project Overview• Advance the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling• Use state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling to meet

operational needs • Disseminate / train community in the state of the art in coupled wave – surge –

inundation modeling.

Project Relevance to DHS S&T Mission/Impact of Project• Risk determination and delineation - FEMA National Flood Insurance Program • Event based forecasting – partnership with NHC / NWS – Irene, Isaac, Sandy• Initial post storm damage estimates• Training exercises

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Technical Approach• ADCIRC + SWAN + ancillary support models• ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – ASGS• “ADCIRC Bootcamp”• NetCDF, OpenDAP, Thredds, data standards / Matlab tools • CERA website + outreach to EMs + moble apps

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Progress to Date• Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas• Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study• Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast

process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for

interoperability & tools to access / visualize results• Improvements to parametric wind model

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from H*Wind

(m)

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.000.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

f(x) = 0.693098200501339 xR² = 0.931434909541539

Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)

Mod

eled

Max

imum

Wat

er E

leva

tion

(m)

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from OWI Wind

(m)

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.000.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

f(x) = 0.880623496735267 xR² = 0.908947706731987

Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)

Mod

eled

Max

imum

Wat

er E

leva

tion

(m)

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from Asymmetric Vortex Gradient Wind

(m)

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.000.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

f(x) = 1.01019305952791 xR² = 0.904616682117848

Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)

Mod

eled

Max

imum

Wat

er E

leva

tion

(m)

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Progress to Date• Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas• Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study• Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast

process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for

interoperability & tools to access / visualize results• Improvements to parametric wind model• PRIME TIME USE

– Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week)– Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble– Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble– Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Progress to Date• Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas• Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study• Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast

process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for

interoperability & tools to access / visualize results• Improvements to parametric wind model• PRIME TIME USE

– Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week)– Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble– Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble– Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,

• 3 annual “ADCIRC Bootcamps” (25 – 35 attendees / year)

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

ADCIRC Bootcamp 2012

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Current Translation Activities and End Users • FEMA NFIP study – various working groups• ADCIRC bootcamp• NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites• ADCIRC_Viz• Briefings for USCG, USACE, NHC, public media

Products • Numerous publications and presentations• NC FEMA NFIP reports• NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

Looking Forward • Careful evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN modeling system for recent storms • Enhancements to parametric wind model – see Jie Gao poster• Expansion of groups running ASGS around US and integration of results

from multiple sources• HURRICANE SANDY