coastal modeling for resilience: taking steps ahead · 2 | coastal modeling for resilience: taking...
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Coastal Modeling for Resilience:
Taking Steps Ahead
Picture: The Philadelphia Inquirer,
Clem Murray/AP
Picture: www.dailymail.co.uk
Sibtey HasanCoastal Engineer Dewberry, New York
1 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Why do we need “Coastal” Resilience
Rising Sea levels
Coastal Storms
Coastal Erosion
What can be done?Coastal Resilience!
“Ideally, coastal communities and infrastructure
should be built far away from the coast to be
protected from these threats. But in reality, the
waterfront is generally very developed with
infrastructure and inhabited by a large
population that can’t be easily moved and face
potential dire consequences due to coastal
threats.”
2 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
What is Coastal Resilience?
Improve the ability of natural habitat and human communities to
“Recuperate" after damaging events such as hurricanes, coastal
storms, and flooding, rather than simply reacting to impacts.
Approaches
1) Assess Risk and
Vulnerability
2) Identify Solutions
3) Take Action
4) Measure Effectiveness
3 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Efforts to analyze coastal flood and potential risk
A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact studies. (Hubbert, G. D. and McInnes,K. L. 1999).
An integrated storm surge modeling system: CH3D-SSMS. Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering,University of Florida, Gainesville. (Sheng, Y. P., et. al. 2004)
Simulation of storm surge, wave, currents and inundation in the outer banks and Chesapeake Bayduring Hurricane Isabel in 2003. (Sheng, Y.P. et. al., 2010)
The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy (Harry V. Wang el.al., 2014)
Street-Scale Modeling of Storm Surge Inundation along the New Jersey Hudson River Waterfront, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey. (Alan F. Blumberg et. al., 2015)
Modeling the Effectiveness of a Storm Surge Barrier System for the Houston Ship Channel during Hurricane Events. (Torres. J et. al. 2015)
4 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS):
Resilient Adaptation to Increasing Risk
What is the NACCS Study?
TIER 1 is a regional scale analysis (completed as part of this study)
TIER 2 Analysis conducted at a State or watershed scale
TIER 3 a local-scale analysis that incorporates benefit-cost evaluations of coastal storm risk management plans.
Key Findings, Outcomes & Opportunities
Increasing Flood Risk
Should adopt combinations of solutions
Identify acceptable
level of residual risk
Improve risk management Framework
Addressing coastal risk
Strategic and comprehensi
ve monitoring
Pre-disaster planning and
mitigation
5 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
NACCS Modelling EffortKey Points
Over 1,150 production storms were designed (synthetic storms) or selected (historical storms), simulated, analyzed, and incorporated into the Coastal Hazards database.
The development of synthetic tropical storms focused on: the discretization of the marginal distributions for each of the hurricane parameters; the development of the hurricane track paths; and development of the along-track variations of hurricane parameters.
Numerical models applied to the NACCS study WAM - Wave Prediction Model
STWAVE - Steady State Spectral Wave and ADCIRC - Advanced Circulation Model
Products from this work incorporated into the Coastal Hazards database for approximately 1,050 synthetic tropical events and 100 extra-tropical events computed at over 3 million computational points - 18,000 locations.
Exposure Assessment
Risk AssessmentRisk Areas
Identification
NAACS Concepts to Analyze Risk and Vulnerability
6 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Identify Possible Solutions – Coastal Storm Risk
Management Strategies and Measures
Structural
Non-Structural
Natural & Nature-Based Features (NNBF)
Programmatic
Rocky
Beaches
Manmade Structures
Scraps
Vegetated Banks
Wetlands
Categorize based on function Categorize based on Shoreline type
Aggregated Measure Type
CategoryCoastal Storm Risk Management Function
Multi BenefitsResilience
Flooding Wave Attenuation
Erosion Adaptive Capacity
Acquisition (building removal) and
relocationNon-STR High High High High High
Deployable floodwalls
STR Medium None None None Low
7 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
FEMA’s Probabilistic Coastal Flood Hazard Analyses in
the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Great Lakes Coasts
Phase 1:
Evaluate the existing FEMA procedures for delineating coastal flood hazard areas in three major coastal regions Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific Coast
Phase 2:
Develop recommended guidelines and procedures for mapping flood hazards on the Pacific coast
Phase 3:
Update coastal flood hazard mapping guidance for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts
FEMA’s Numerical Modeling Framework
STEP 1: Storm Characterization
STEP 2: Storm Surge Modeling
STEP 3: Return Period Analysis
OUTPUT: 1% Annual Chance Still Water Level (SWL)
STEP 4: Overland Wave Analysis
OUTPUT: Flood Insurance Rate
Map
8 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Storm Rate and Storm Characterization
“Quadrature JPM - OS (Joint-Probability Method – Optimum Sampling) schemes havebeen applied in recent FEMA’s probabilistic Storm surge studies”
P - Pressure deficit (representing hurricane
intensity),
RP - The radius of the exponential pressure profile
(representing hurricane size),
Vf - the forward velocity,
- the storm heading,
d - the landfall location (or, equivalently, the
minimum distance from the track to a reference point
along the coast)
“These parameters represent the main
hurricane characteristics affecting storm
surge; they are treated as random variables in
the JPM formulation.”
9 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Established Tropical Storm and Hurricane (Gulf of Mexico)
Period: 1940 – 2008 (Historical) Period: 1940 – 2008 (Historical)
10 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Coastal Flood Hazard Analyses in the Atlantic Ocean & Gulf of Mexico: Hydrodynamic & Wave Modeling
Still Water Level
FEMA Flood Hazard Map
Needs of Resilience – New York / New Jersey
Region
11 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Breezy Point, New York: Hurricane
Sandy
Picture: The Philadelphia Inquirer,
Clem Murray/AP
Picture: Mike Groll /AP
Flooding in Pompton Plains, New Jersey
hit by wake of Hurricane Irene
Picture: http://meredithdf.tumblr.com/New York
Harbor/Hurricane Irene
The Plaza, Manhattan, NYC: Hurricane Sandy
Picture: EPA/Justin Lane
Picture: http://meredithdf.tumblr.com/
Picture: http://Wikipedia.org/
Flooding at Staten Island New
York /Hurricane Irene
Picture: USGS
According to a recent climate central survey report an estimated populationof around 236,000 and 423,000 respectively, in New Jersey and New Yorkregion are reportedly at risk due to rise in Sea levels and storm surge threats
Climate Central (http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/)
A walkway at the southern part of Battery
Park in Lower Manhattan/Hurricane Irene
Picture: www.dailymail.co.uk
NY/NJ Rebuild by Design Resiliency Projects
12 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
The BIG Team - The BIG U (East River Park) – Manhattan [New York City]
OMA – Resist, Delay, Store, Discharge - Hoboken, Weehawken, Jersey City [New Jersey]
The Interboro Team – Living With the Bay (Slow Streams) - Nassau County, Long Island [New York]
MIT CAU+ZUS+URBANISTEN– New Meadowlands - Little Ferry, Moonachie, Carlstadt, Teterboro [New
York]
SCAPE/Landscape Architecture– Living Breakwaters- Tottenville, Staten Island [New York]
Penn Design/OLIN –Lifelines, Hunts Point, South Bronx [New York City]
13 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Typical Resiliency Framework
Integrated Flood Risk Assessment
Risk Areas Identification
Identify Combination of
Solutions
Flood Risk Management
Plan
Stakeholder process
Integrated design
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Implementation
14 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Integrated
Approach Storm Surge
Rainfall
15 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
An example of Integrated Coastal Storm Surge /Storm Water
Management Modeling System
Example of Coastal Storm Surge Model (MIKE21)
Example of a Storm Water Model (MIKE URBAN)
Lower Manhattan, NY
HobokenNew Jersey
Brooklyn
Governors Island
BatteryPark
16 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Example of an Integrated Coastal Storm Surge and Storm Water
Model (MIKE FLOOD)
Surge Barrier
17 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Lesson Learned
The combination of rising sea-level, storm surge and storm water pose great flood risks to coastal
cities where population and assets are densely distributed.
An integrated methodology needs to be in place to gather and accurately interpret the comprehensive
information on potential flood risks.
The information obtained by this approach not only includes the flood risks on each subsystem but
also distinguishes between direct and indirect impacts.
Building resilience can be impetus for transforming the waterfront in ways that can make the city not
only more climate-resilient, but also more healthy, prosperous, and livable.
There are also many unknowns about the possible effects of many of the strategies discussed.
Therefore, in future, scientific modeling, empirical research, and pilot projects needs to be in
proposition.
International collaborations is required between climate research institutes for resource optimization to
overcome modelling limitations and improve regional and local models forecasts.
1 8 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Dewberry’s Ongoing Coastal Resiliency Projects
Rebuild by Design – Hudson River Project (City of Hoboken, Jersey City and Town of Weehawken), New Jersey
Rebuild by Design - New Meadowlands Project, New Jersey
Red Hook Integrated Flood Protection Feasibility Study, New York
Lower Manhattan Coastal Resiliency, New York
19 | Coastal Modeling for Resilience: Taking Steps Ahead
Questions?
Thank You !