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TRANSCRIPT
2019/Thomas Puls
A compendium – Version 4.2
CO2 regulation in Europe
2CO2-Regulation in Europe
Megatrends
CO2 emissions
(Sl ides 5 – 12)
Fuels
(Sl ides 13 – 17)
Globalisation
(Sl ides 18 – 22)
Political framework
Cl imate policy
(Sl ides 24 – 31)
Regulation density and conflicting goals
(Sl ides 32 – 38)
Transportation sektor
Transportation today
(Sl ides 40 – 47)
CO2-emissions on the road
(Sl ides 48 – 54)
Efficiency on the road
(Sl ides 55 – 63)
Regulation on theroad
(Sl ides 64 – 71)
Other sektors
Electricity
(Fol ie 72 – 78)
Industry
(Sl ides 79 – 82)
Households
(Sl ides 83 – 86)
Outlook
Limits of the system
(Sl ides 88 – 93)
Alternatives
(Sl ides 94 – 98)
14. Fourteen core theses
(Sl ides 99 – 133)
Chapter overview
3CO2-Regulation in Europe
Climate protection
1. Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is low and
continuously decreasing. (100)
2. No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of emissions is
being eaten up by growth in emerging economies. (103)
3. Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh of the
CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in transportation emissions is
declining. (106)
CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
4. New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in recent years. (108)
6. Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even
shorter span of time. (112)
5. CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an international comparison. (110)
8. Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine
types is still uncertain. (116)
7. Der Pkw-Sektor ist auch ohne eine weitere Verschärfung der CO2-Grenzwerte nach 2020 auf Kurs, um die Ziele der EU-Klimapolitik bis 2030
zu erfüllen.(114)
9. EU environmental legislation is not coherent and, for a long time, had other priorities than CO2 reduction. This had various consequences,
including an increase of CO2 emissions. (119)
10. Today’s CO2 laws regulate only new vehicles, completely disregarding the remaining vehicle fleet. (122)
11. An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach. (124)
Balance between climate protection and industrial
policy
12. The EU is targeting a 20% industry share of GDP for the
year 2020. This goal is presently a long way away, since industrial and climate
protection policy are not yet aligned. (126)
13. The CO2 abatement costs vary greatly between sectors and are most pronounced in the automotive sector. (129
14. Emissions trading as the most economically efficient form of CO2 regulation can
easily be applied to road traffic. (131)
The core theses: Brief overview
4
1 Megatrends
2 Political framework
3 Transportation sector
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in EuropeMegatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation
5CO2-Regulation in Europe
Carbon reservoirs in in billions of tonnes
The carbon cycle
Soil 1.580
Surface water 1.020
Sediments 150
Deep sea 38.100
Photosynthesisand respiration Combustion
Gas exchangebetween the ocean
and atmosphere
Dissolvedorganic carbon
< 700
Sea organisms 3
Vegetation 610Fossil fuels and cement
production 4.000
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
Atmosphere 750
6CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2018
Emissions from fuel use, in millions of tonnes
CO2 emissions: Europe’s share sharply decreasing
10,3% 14,8%
28,2%
23,4%23,2%
15,0%
19,6% 16,1% 9,9%
46,7% 45,9% 47,0%
1990 2002 2016
China USA EU Rest of the world
20 502 23 884
Compared to the year 1990, the absolute CO2 emissions are decreasing in the EU only. Between 1990 and 2016 the EU decreased the emissions by approximately 832 Million tons.
At the current edge the US emissions are falling. In 2016 the emissions are converging to the emissions of 1990.
The impact of European regulations on global CO2
emissions continues to decline.
+32 314
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
7CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2016
Emissions from fuel use* – Changes between 1990 and 2016 in Millions of tonnes
Reduction in Europe, strong increase in Asia
While China shows an increase of 328 per cent during the years 1990–2016, the EU shows a decrease of 20.7 per cent.
In 2014 alone, China’s emissions increased by 110 million tonnes. Since then there is a stagnation of emissions in China.
India increased it’s emissions since 1990 by 228 Percent and this value is still increasing.
+
-834,9
1.547,7
6.979,3
EU India China* Corresponding to category 1A according to the UNFCCC classification system
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
8CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21); IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017
EU passenger cars – Relevant, yet not crucial
Relevant: Europe’s total passengercar traffic 2016 emitted 538 milliontonnes of CO2, an upward trendcompared to 2015.
Crucial? China, on the other hand, is showing a strong upwards trend in its use of fossil fuels – emitting nearly 526 million tonnes of CO2 in just three weeks.
Dynamic: between 2014 and 2015 the plus in China was about 60 millions of tons. In the followingyear the emissions increased by 8 million tons.
+
450
554 538
63
372
706
121
375
523
EU passenger cars traffic
China road traffic
China CO2 emissions in 21 days
CO2 emissions in millions of tons
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
9CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2018
CO2 emissions for the year 2016, in millions of tonnes
10 countries, two-thirds of the CO2 emissions
527
541
563
589
732
1.147
1.439
2.077
4.833
9.102
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Korea
Germany
Japan
Russia
India
USA
China
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
10
* For information only; ** Not including international air and maritime traffic. These are not classified as national emissions in the context of the Kyoto report Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Figures for 2016, as percentage CO2EQ
CO2 emissions in the EU 28
Transportation sector by mode of transport
07%12%
48% 44%
26% 27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2016
CommercialVehiclesPassenger Cars
Civil aviation
Rail transport
WaterwaytransportOther
Int. Aviation
Int. Waterwaytransport
Emissions according to sector
29,9%
21,3%9,9%
13,4%
10,8%
14,7%
Generationof heat
and energy
Industry
Passenger cars
Other sectors
Other modes of transport **
Agriculture
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
CO2-Regulation in Europe
1.659 1.6171.195
1.3761.098
849
785987
931
643522
511
523441
415
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
1990 2007 2016
Other
Households
Agriculture
Transportation
Industry and
construction
Power generation
-5.7%
11CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 28 by sector, in millions of tonnes
Sector development
► Split development after the fall of the Iron Curtain
► Traffic emissions increased quickly after 1990, since Eastern Europe was integrated into the European Economic Area. Emissions have been decreasing since 2007, even in the transportation sector, but began torise again in 2014.
► In the early 1990s, considerable reductions were visible in the industry and energy generation sectors. Their emissions levels stagnated until around 2007, then dropped with the economic crisis.
5,410
4,884
3,991
+
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
12CO2-Regulation in Europe
Global CO2 emissions are continuously increasing, especially in Asia.
CO2 emissions are declining only in Europe.
The reduction of emissions in Europe is hardly significant when viewed against the increase of emissions in Asia.
Today, European regulations have relatively little influence on global CO2 emissions, and the influence is continuing to decline.
From the perspective of climate research, it is the overall volume of emissions at the global level which is relevant. The country or specific source of the emissions is essentially insignificant.
Summary: CO2 emissions
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
13CO2-Regulation in Europe
Kategorie 1
Kategorie 2
Kategorie 3
Kategorie 4
Diagrammtitel
Datenreihe 3 Datenreihe 2 Datenreihe 1
Fuels: Well-to-wheel emissions are what counts
Megatrends
CO2-emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick
Fuel Consumption per
100 km (Vehiclefrom compact-class in NEDC)
price in €per
TTW CO2 EmissionsIn g CO2 / Km
WTW GHG-EmissionsIn g CO2eq / km
price*in Europer 100 km
Super E5 (conventional) 4,9 L 1,40 L115,72 144,93 6,86 €
Diesel B7 (conventional) 3,9 L 1,14 L 102,86 128,74 4,45 €
PHEV (Benzin E5 + Conv. Strom) 49,59 99,39 4,77 €
LPG (Remote well) 6,4 L 1,57 L 104,37 127,93 3,66 €
Natural Gas (H-Gas, EU-
Mix)
3,5 Kg 1,09 Kg88,9 109,42 3,81 €
Electricity (D-Mix 2015) 12,7 kW/h 0,29 KW/h 0,0 74,55 3,71 €
Hydrogen (EU Mix) 0,97 Kg 9,50 Kg 0,0 134,2 9,22 €
Bioethanol E85 (wood) 5,88 L 0,99 L 112,31 35,91 5,81 €
Bioethanol E85 (grain) 5,88 L 0,99 L 112,31 119,69 5,81 €
Biodiesel B100 (Rapeseed) 4,29 L 1,43 L 121,41 85,99 6,13 €
Electricity (Regenerativ) 12,7 KW/h 0,29 KW/h 0,0 5,33 3,71 €
Hydrogen (Aircraft) 0,97 Kg 9,50 Kg 0,0 15,14 9,22 €
E-Gas (Regenerativ) 3,5 Kg - Kg 88,9 5,21 n.e.
Synthetical diesel (Reg.) 3,9 L - L102,86 2,18
n.e. (not yet commercially available)
Nich
t rege
nerativ
Re
gen
erativ
E-Fue
ls
TTW: Tank-to-Wheel; WTW: Well-to-Wheel; CO2eq – CO2 Äquivalent
Comparison of emissions and alternative fuels
14CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Bloomberg, Baker Hughes (Stand April 2018)
But the supply is already decliningNumber of active drilling towers in the USA
Oil prices rise again in 2018 In US Dollar
High oil prices: Incentive for more efficient motor vehicles
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
02.0
1.09
02.0
7.09
02.0
1.10
02.0
7.10
02.0
1.11
02.0
7.11
02.0
1.12
02.0
7.12
02.0
1.13
02.0
7.13
02.0
1.14
02.0
7.14
02.0
1.15
02.0
7.15
02.0
1.16
02.0
7.16
02.0
1.17
02.0
7.17
02.0
1.18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
03.0
1.00
03.0
1.01
03.0
1.02
03.0
1.03
03.0
1.04
03.0
1.05
03.0
1.06
03.0
1.07
03.0
1.08
03.0
1.09
03.0
1.10
03.0
1.11
03.0
1.12
03.0
1.13
03.0
1.14
03.0
1.15
03.0
1.16
03.0
1.17
03.0
1.18
03.0
1.19
Brent WTI
► Oil prices have greatly increased from the year 2000 till 2014.
► As a result of fracking in the USA, oil prices started to diverge in 2010.
► The supply side in the US is strongly linked with oil prices. Rising prices lead to an increase in active oil rigs and vice versa.
+
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
► Fracking has strongly impacted the world market for fossil fuels.
► Favourable: The Gas price sank since 2005 clearly under the European level.
► The USA has greatly increased its domestic production of oil and natural gas.
► Independency: This greatly reduced the USA’s need to import fuel.
CO2-Regulation in Europe
US production and import of oil and natural gas Index, 1990 = 100
Gaspricein US-$ per 1,000m3
Fracking has changed the rules of the game
Fossil energy in the USA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Gas production
Oil production
Gas import
Oil import
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Europe
USA
+50%
+81%
-30%
-33%
+
15
Sources: Weltbank, Economic Monitor (GEM) Commodities, 2017; IEA, World Energy Statistics, 2018
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Various fuel types reveal a very different carbon footprint in the well-to-wheel analysis. Today, electricity and natural gas are the alternatives with the most favourable ratio of emission reductions to fuel costs.
The EU has a very high rate of dependence on imported energy carriers. This leads to cases of political dependence. Avoiding such dependencies is a key driver for European policy in the field of primary energy supply.
The development of oil prices creates innovative pressure on motor vehicle manufacturers, since fuel consumption is a key selling point. Even without regulation measures, customers would increasingly demand efficient vehicles.
Summary: Fuels
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
16
CO2-Regulation in Europe
*Partly estimates or forecasts by the IWFSource: Internationaler Währungsfonds
Share of the world GDP*as percentage
1991 – 2017
The weights are shifting in the world GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Advanced countries
Emerging and developing countries
► The dominance of the industrialised countries is crumbling.
► China’s significance is rapidly growing.
+
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
USA
China
Japan
Germany
EU-15 (without Germany)
17
Share of the world GDP*as percentage
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: UNCTAD, IWF, Weltbank, IW Köln
Index for economic relations, 1980 = 1001980 = 100, nominal figures
Direct investments propel globalisation
► Globalisation means the establishment of global production structures through direct investments.
► Since 1980, the inventory of direct investments has grown at least five times as fast as international trade.
► Approximately one-third of international trade is already taking place in corporate networks.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global GDP Globale Exports of goods and services
Global direkt investments stocks abroad
+4481%
+930%
+662%
+
18Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The emphasis of the world economy is shifting more and more towards Asia.
This trend is being fuelled by the establishment of production locations near the market.
Already today, the European locations are in strong competition with the countries in the growth regions, and many European locations are losing ground.
The significance of regulation in Europe is declining with the significance of the European economies.
If European industrial locations are to survive in terms of global competition, the EU must provide better local conditions.
Summary Globalisation
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
19
20
1 Megatrends
2 Political framework
3 Transportation sector
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in EuropePolitical framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Only Europe really joined in
Kyoto-Protocol
Kyoto signatories
Almost all of the world’s nations entered into the Kyoto agreement.
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
+
21
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Only Europe really joined in
Kyoto-Protocol
Kyoto signatorieswith emission target
► Almost all of the world’s nations entered into the Kyoto agreement.
► Only a few countries accepted emission targets.
+
22Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Only Europe really joined in
Kyoto-Protocol
► Almost all of the world’s nations entered into the Kyoto agreement.
► Only a few countries accepted emission targets.
► Soft targets, in some cases: countries of the former Eastern bloc merely aimed to not exceed their figures from 1990.
+
Kyoto signatorieswho kept their emission target
23Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Stipulated reduction compared to 2005, as percentage
The EU plans to clearly increase its pace
► After 2020, the non-ETS sectoris expected to reduce twice as much in 10 years as it did during the previous 15.
► The cost per reduced tonne of CO2 will increase considerably.
-34%
2020
2030
-21% -10%
-43% -30%
-12%
ETS*-Sektor
Non-ETSsector
EU GHG target(Basis: 2005)
Emissions trading
Establishment of a marketstabilisation reserve
Avoidance of relocation effects
How? Incorporating binding national targets
Supporting measures, e.g. emissions standards
+
24Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB
The EU’s long-term targets, as percentage; base year 1990
The EU moves forward undeterred
-20%
20%
-20%
-21%
21%
-17%
-40%
27%
-27%
Target 2020 Forecast 2020 Proposal 2030
► The European Commission predicts that the climate targets for 2020 will largely be reached.
► Even if the rest of the world has not joined in so far, the EU plans to increase its tar-gets considerably after 2020.
Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
Market share of renewable energy on gross final energy consumption
Efficiency target: reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP
+
25Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB
German federal government reduction targets, as percentage; base year 1990
Ten years faster: The German federal government exceeds EU targets
-28%
15%
-6%
-40%
18%
-20%
-55%
30%
Status 2016 Target 2020 Proposal 2030
► The German federal govern-ment is currently demanding addi-tional efforts to reach the target for 2020.
► For the period after 2020, the stipulated pace of change will be dramatically increased.
Reduction of greenhouse gasemissions
Market share of renewable energy on gross final energy consumption
Reduction of primary energyconsumption
compared to 2008
+
26Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: BMWi, IW Köln, KBA,UNFCCC, AGEB
German federal government reduction targets, as percentage
Buildings and traffic
-20%
2%
-10%
1.000.000
-11%
1%
4%
98.280
Target 2020 Status 2016
► The target value for road traffic is 136–141 million tonnes of CO2; value in 2016: 160.2 million tonnes of CO2.
► The building sector will likely miss its target considerably.
► On January 1st 2018 53.861 batteryelectric cars and 44.419 Plug-In-Hybrids were licensed.
Number of electric cars
Final energyconsumption compared to 2005
Rate of renovation p.a.
Energy demand compared to 2008
Bu
ildin
gsTr
affi
c
+
27Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
Fleet in January 2018
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Global climate policy is currently experiencing a crisis.
The EU enthusiastically advanced in the Kyoto process, but no one followed. Outside the EU, only the transition countries met their targets, which were very soft in the first place.
The EU will reach its climate targets – even after the economic distortions following 2008 – and plans to considerably increase its pace in climate protection in the period after 2020.
The federal government wants to go further than the EU. While traffic emissions are essentially on track, areas such as the building sector are far from being able to reach its targets.
Summary Climate policy
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectorsn OutlookMegatrends
28
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Eurostat 2019
The manufacturing industry’s share of the gross value, as percentage
The EU industrial sector: Collapse rather than rebirth
► EU target: The industrial sector is expected to have a 20 per cent share of the GDP in 2020
► Germany is reaching this target. The UK, Italy and France give cause for concern.
► Countries outside of Europe are improving quickly. Europe must respond in order to secure its position.
EU targetfor 2020
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Germany Spain France Italy UK EU 28
+
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
29
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, Eurostat
Progress in noise and safety targets
► Since 1990, the EU has shown considerable progress and has set ambitious regulations concerning noise emissions and safety.
► Additional sound reduction and safety devices bring extra weight and changes to the car body.
► The further targets result in a measurable overconsumption of new vehicles.
+
Traffic safety: Ambitious targetsRoad traffic fatalities in the EU 28 countries
75.400
54.000
25.100
15.500
1991 2001 2018 Target 2020
-28%
-53%
-39%
Noise targets: Noise emissions are expected to decline by up to 75 per cent.EU vehicle noise limit values in dB (A)
65
70
75
80
85
90
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2016New measurement
Trucks > 150 kW
Trucks 75 - 150 kW
Trucks< 75 kW
Cars
MotorcyclesTrucks> 12 t, > 250 kW
Trucks> 12 t, 150-250 kWTrucks> 12 t, < 150 kWTrucks 3,5-12 t, > 135 kW
Trucks 3,5-12 t, < 135 kW
Cars> 200 kW, < 4 SitzeCars> 160 kW
Cars 120-160 kW
Cars< 120 kW
A reduction by 3 dB always representsa halving of the measurable sound..
80 dB88 dB
30Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
31CO2-Regulation in Europe
* without international aviation and shipping traffic. ** including agriculturalvehicles and fishing boatsSource: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
Cars Commercial vehicles Other traffic Industry
Public energy supply Agriculture Households Other sectors
-69%
-46%
-58%
-71%
Data for EU 28* in kilo tonnes, Nox emissions converted in NO2
Nitrogene oxide emissions dropped by 56 per cent
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
32CO2-Regulation in Europe
* for information only; ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. These are not regarded as national emissions.Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG -RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018
Data of 2015, in per cent of the Nox emissions converted in NO2
Nitrogene oxide emissions in the EU 28
Transportation sectors by transport modes
14%
32%03%
10%
46%
23%
29% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2016
Comercial Vehicle
Passenger Car
Civil aviation(national)
Rail traffic
Inland navigation
Other
Int. aviation*
Int. shipping*
Emissions sectors
16,5
17,2
27,4
17,5
13,6
5,2 2,6
Public energy supply
Industry
Cars
Other sectors
Other traffic**
Agriculture
Households
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
Sources: ICCT, 2014; Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA), 2016, Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH), 2016, Auto Motor Sport (AMS), 2015; Auto Motor Sport (AMS), 2016; Bosch
The gap between RDE and laborotory is closing
Real-Driving-Emissions NOx – Fast progress
The first RDE tests ofpassenger cars wereconducted in 2014.The performance ofthe up to date cars in RDE tests is muchbetter.The Values taken fromAMS show the same model with twoengine generationsThe technology tomeet the limit valuesis on the market.
+
NO
xin
g/k
m
Gap
CO2-Regulation in Europe 33
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
EU litmit value (Laboratory) ICCT (2014)
KBA (04.2016) DUH (09.2016)
AMS (11.2015) AMS (05.2016)
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
34CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA – Air Quality Statistics, 2018
The 12 cities of the EU with the highest level of NO2-Immissions in 2016
NO2: A European Problem
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
9 1
2
5
83
43
7
City 2017 in µg/m3
2010 in µg/m3
2006 in µg/m3
London 83,7 98,3 110,6
Paris 82,5 95,5 91,1
Turin 79,8 74,4 94,0
Munich 78,1 98,7 97,5
Marseille 75,1 82,6 87,9
Stuttgart 73,0 99,9 121,3
Darmstadt 71,9 n.a. n.a.
Lyon 70,6 89,8 n.a.
Hafod yr ynys 70,1 n.a. n.a.
Mailand 64,4 73,4 77,6
Florenz 63,7 101,8 71,6
Cologne 62,1 65,0 n.a.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
1011
35CO2-Regulation in Europe
* for information only; ** ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG -RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018
Transportation sector by transport modesEmissions by sectors
Data of 2016, in kilo tonnes fine dust (PM10)
PM10 emissions in the EU 28
30,0%
5,3%
13,3%
7,0%
5,9%
32,8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016
Abrasion (breaks, tyres,roadway)
Light duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)
Heavy duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)
Car (exhaust pipe)
Rail traffic
Navigation
Other
Aviation (total)*
Int. aviation*
735,8
349,8
377,7
85,8
128,8
75,0
327,7
Public energy supply
Industry
Road (Exhaust)
Other sectors
Agriculture
Households
Road (abrasion)Total
emissions** 2,080.61 kt
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
36CO2-Regulation in Europe
* for information only; ** ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG -RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018
Transportation sector bytransport modes
Emissions by sectors
Data of 2016, in kilo tonnes of ultrafine dust (PM2,5)
PM2,5 emissions in the EU 28
37,3%
5,8%
14,3%
7,4%
6,6%
20,6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016
Abrasion (breaks, tyres,roadway)
Light duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)
Heavy duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)
Car (exhaust pipe)
Rail traffic
Navigation
Other
Aviation (total)*
Int. aviation*
682,5
185,7
97,4
85,2
60,5
48,7
193,9Public energy supply
Industry
Road (Exhaust)
Other sectors
Agriculture
Households
Road (Abrasion)
Totalemissions** 1,353.88 kt
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Nature, 2013, Heft 493
Greater efficiency leads to more consumption – yet thereduction effects prevail
Rebound effect: A real problem
► The idea of the rebound effect is that more efficient vehicles have lower operational costs and are thus used more heavily.
► The rebound effect is real and can be proven, but it should not be overemphasised.
► Simulations show that 30 per cent of the reduction effect is eaten up again as a result of additional traffic.
► In spite of the rebound effect, more efficient technology still pays off.
-7% +2%
Simulation of the energy consumption of road traffic in the USA (in TWh), when implementing the targets for 2025
4.374
4.149
3.900
4.000
4.100
4.200
4.300
4.400
No targets Measures forhigherenergy
efficiency
Rebound Effect
After measureand rebound
Decreased petrol consumption through more efficient motor
vehicles.
-7% +2%
More routes aretravelled by car
+
37Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
CO2 reduction is only one of the traffic-related targets being pursued by the EU.
In the past, traffic-related regulation measures were focused on exhaust emissions and transportation safety.
Huge advancements have been made in regard to safety and harmful emissions of motor vehicles; but this has resulted in a higher consumption of energy.
The top priority for the future should be the reduction of CO2
emissions from motor vehicles.
Summary: Regulation density and conflicting goals
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
38
39
1 Megatrends
2 Political frame
3 Transportation sector
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector
Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2017
Trucks are facilitating the Single European Market
► The merging of the EU triggered tremendous growth in the area of freight transport.
► The creation of the Single European Market fuelled growth on both road and rail.
► Over 70 per cent of Europe’s freight is transported by truck.
► Between 2007 and 2014, freight transport in Europe has decreased by 9 per cent but now it is rising again.
+
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
Development of freight transport in the EU 1995 =100
1.289 1.804
388
412237
262
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Freight transport in the EU 1995 and 2015 in tkm
1.914
2.478
Road Rail Other Total
40
3.9375.508
422556
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
504
52
5.329
Verkehrssektor
Politischer Rahmen Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends Verkehr heute CO2-Emissionen Straße Effizienz Straße Regulierung Straße
41CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2017
High level of dynamics in air transport, but cars are the backbone
► Strong growth in air transport since the fall of the government monopoly.
► Considerable growth in rail transport since the EU started promoting national rail transport markets.
► Over 80 per cent of traffic is attributable to passenger transportation on roads. A stagnation has been evident since 2004
+
Development of passenger traffic in the EU 1995 =100
Passenger transport in the EU 1995 und 2016 in pkm
6.554
Car Rail Air
190
Bus Motorcycle
41Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2013; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014
in billions of tonne kilometres
Trucks will continue to dominate the considerably growing transport market
Official forecasts for freight transport in 2030
► There is some evidence that the PRIMES Prognosis from 2013 is outdated. It predicts an increase in goods traffic between 2010 and 2015, while it actually heavily decreased (Folie 42).
+
Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU
337 429393
602
1.764
2.399
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
2010 2030
+36%
+54%
+27%62 77
108154
437
607
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
2010 2030
Road
Railway
Waterway+39%
+43%
+23%
42Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel len: Prognos, World Transport Report 2015//2016
in billions of tonnes kilometres
Limited increase in road transport in comparison to the official prognosis
Current forecasts for freight transport in 2030
► The current prognosis covers 12 EU Countries with about 92 percent of total road transport. The coverage of rail and inland waterways is less sufficient.
► Growth rates after 2015 hardly differ from the official forecast.
+
Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU
132,5 165312
458
1.658
2.045
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
2010 2030
+23%
+47%
+25%62 72
107160
435
554
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
2010 2030
Road
Railway
Waterway+27%
+49%
+15%
43Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2014; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014
in billions of passenger kilometres
Cars will form the backbone of passenger transport for the long term
Official passenger transport forecasts for 2030
► Over the next 20 years, passenger transport will show a slower rate of growth than freight transport.
► Rail transport is expected to show substantial growth and to gain market shares.
► But: In passenger kilometres, between now and 2030, motor vehicle transport in the EU will increase by more than the total rail traffic being transported in 2030.
+
Traffic forecast for the EU Traffic forecast for Germany
53 8784 10078
83
902
992
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2010 2030
Motorisedindividualtransport
Public roadtransportation
Railway
Air
+6%
+19%
+65%
+10%
527 888496
714513602
4.893
5.714
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
2010 2030
+18%
+49%
+69%
+17%
44Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ACEA, 2017; VDA ,2017
Existing vehicles are not covered by the regulation
Limit values affect only new vehicles
► Each year, only about 5 per cent of the vehicle fleet in the EU is replaced.
► Existing vehicles hold huge potential for CO2 reduction.
► That is why measures for replacing the existing vehicle fleet are essential
+
Approx. 15.1 million new vehicles were licensed in the EU in 2015.
Altogether, approx. 255 million cars
are licensed in the EU.
45Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: ACEA Report Vehicles in Use, 2017; ACEA Pocketbook 2017/2018
The existing vehicle fleet represents the technology from 10 years ago
► Licensed cars in Europe are 9.6 years old, on average – and the trend is increasing.
► The average age of cars in several member states is more than 10 years.
► But: The best method for reducing CO2 is to speed up the rate at which existing vehicles are replaced.
+
Age of passenger cars in Europe as percentage in 2015
Average age of licensed carsin years
46
10%
14%
27%
49%
< 2 years
2 - 5 years
5 - 10 years
> 10 years
16,916,216,0
15,014,614,514,3
13,913,613,5
12,511,911,8
11,310,8
10,49,9
9,38,98,88,8
8,48,2
7,86,3
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2016; ACEA, 2016
In its reduction of CO2, Europe relies on diesel
► Since the mid-90s, Europe’s fleet of new vehicles had a growing share of cars that run on diesel but now it is declining.
► Diesel plays a significant part in Europe’s CO2 reduction progress.
► Diesel motors are primarily used in vehicles that are expected to have high mileage.
+
New car registrations in the EU 28 in 2016 Existing vehicle fleet in the EU in 2016
42,0%
53,9%
4,1%
Diesel Petrol Other
100% = 255 Mio. Cars in the stock
265.252
58.250
64.342
92.785
LPG49,4%
47,0%
3,6%
Diesel Petrol Other
100% = 14,7 million new car registrations
CNG
Plug-In
Electric
47Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
48CO2-Regulation in Europe
Road traffic is the indispensable backbone of mobility for passengers and freight in Europe.
According to official forecasts, the dominance of roads in Europe will not change between now and 2030.
Since 2007, traffic volumes on the road have declined. Today, these volumes are often below the projected levels; and even the official growth expectations must be questioned.
The replacement of Europe’s existing vehicles is an effective measure for reducing emissions; but it will be another ten years before the more efficient new vehicles dominate the fleet.
Summary: Transportation today
Political framework CO2-emissions road Other sectors
Transportation sector
Megatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road Outlook
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EU 28 EU 15 without Germany Germany
115,7
103,9
132,8
122,2
117,6
128,7
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: EEA, 2017 (v20)
CO2EQ-Emissions of road traffic, 1990 = 100
The turnaround came in Germany first
► Since 1999, emissions in Germany have declined by 24 million tonnes and are now on the levels of 1990.
► From 2000 on, an increase in emissions could primarily be seen in Eastern and Southern Europe.
► The turnaround in the EU 28 did not begin until the crisis of 2008.
► In the years 2014 till 2016 emissions increased significantly.
+
Political framework
Transportation sector
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
49
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Absolute CO2EQ-emissions, 1990 = 100
Car traffic in the EU: CO2-emissions rising again
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
road cars
128,3
122,2123,1
116,5
► Car emissions have shown a much lower rate of increase than overall road traffic emissions.
► Car emissions have largely stagnated since 2002 and have been rapidly declining in 2011 but they are rising again since 2013.
+
50
Political framework
Transportation sector
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
51CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)
In millions of tonnes of CO2EQ
EU: Der Emissionsanteil des Güterverkehrs ist..?The share of emissions from freight transport has significantly increased
► Since 2007, the CO2 emissions of road traffic in the EU have been declining. But since 2013 they are rising again.
► Between 1990 and 2007, emissions from truck traffic in particular saw a rapid increase.
► Since 2007, emissions from freight transport have been declining again.
► The increase of emissions from car traffic was relatively moderate. Emissions have stagnated since around 2004 and have been declining from 2007 till 2012. Since 2013 they are rising again.
+0 200 400 600 800 1.000
1990 2007 2016
Total road traffic
Cars
Heavy andLight –weight
trucks
+22%
+16%
+33%
Shift1990 - 2016
-5,1%
-4,8%
-5,5%
Shift2007–2016
Political framework
Transportation sector
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2019
Emissions from new vehicles decreasing rapidly
Country
Average CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2017, in g per km
Change from 2007 to 2017, as percentage
Portugal 104,7 -27,25Denmark 108,3 -33,28Netherlands 107,1 -32,98Greece 108,8 -34,18France 110,4 -26,10Malta 111,0 -24,90Ireland 111,6 -30,94Croatia 113,1 k.A.Italy 113,3 -22,66Spain 115,0 -24,93Belgium 115,9 -24,15Finland 118,2 -33,33Slovenia 119,6 -23,48Romania 120,6 -22,09Austria 120,7 -25,90UK 121,1 -26,47Cyprus 122,2 -28,24Sweden 122,3 -32,58Czech Republik 124,1 -19,52Hungary 125,6 -18,97Slowakia 126,1 -17,42Bulgaria 126,2 -26,46Luxembourg 127,0 -23,40Germany 127,2 -24,96Lithuania 127,4 -27,82Poland 127,6 -16,89Latvia 128,8 -29,81Estonia 132,8 -26,87EU 28 118,6 -25,68
< 110 g per km
< 120 g per km
< 125 g per km
≥ 125 g per km
CO2 Emissionen
Higheremissions in
the East. Four EU countries
below 110
52
Political framework
Transportation sector
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ACEA, 2016
CO2 emissions of new vehicles in the EU, as percentage
High-emission cars are being phased out
► The broad range of today’s new vehicles already emits less than 130 g CO2/km.
► Vehicles with high emissions are on the decline.
► In 1995 80 per cent of the new cars emitted more than 160 g CO2/km.
► Vehicles with emissions under 95 g CO2/km are now entering the market.
► More than 1/10th out of the new carsalready meet the target for 2021.
+
97%
75%
22%
3%
25%
66%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2008 2016
> 130 g 96 g - 130 g <95 g
53
Political framework
Transportation sector
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Soruce: EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2019
CO2-emissions of new vehicles in the EU by engine type, in g of CO2 per km
Diesel- and petrol-powered vehicles are reducing their emissions
► Petrol-powered vehicles are showing great advancements and are catching up with diesel engines.
► But: Diesel engines dominate more among larger vehicles, while petrol engines dominate among smaller vehicles.
► The advancements among diesel engines appear stronger, since diesel vehicles spend more time on the road each year.
► In 2017 Diesel Emissions climbed for the first time.
+17000%16810%16490%
16160%
15660%
14770%
14250%
13760%13370%
12860%12560%
12250%12170%12160%
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Diesel Petrol
-24,5-28,4%
54
Political framework
Transportation sector
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ACEA, 2017, Reducing CO2 from trucks: progress in practice – Third-party assessment
Scientifically evaluated road test of comparable heavy trucks of different years of construction for determining the real CO2 emissions
Heavy trucks: clear progress in practical test
1996: 436 PS
1992: 500 PS
1991: 405 PS
1994: 402 PS
1994: 514 PS
2016: 450 PS
2016: 500 PS
2016: 460 PS
2016: 460 PS
2016: 571 PS
DaimlerDEKRA
ScaniaAVL
VolvoAVL
MANTÜV Süd
IvecoAVL
-22%
-1,10%
Reduktion of emissions per year
Total difference in emissions of oldand new
1
2
1
2
-25%
-1,04%
1
2
-19%
-0,76%
1
2
-31,5%
-1,45%
1
2
-21%
-0,95%
1
2
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
55
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The CO2 emissions of road traffic in the EU have been decreasing for years.
Compared to 1990, the emissions from truck traffic in particular increased dynamically but have been decreasing again since 2007. Emissions from car traffic have stagnated since 2004 and have shown a clear decline since 2007.
The increased distribution of more fuel-efficient new vehicles accounts for the decline in car emissions.
The increased use of diesel engines – especially in the case of larger vehicles – was a key driver in the reduction of emissions.
Summary: CO2 emissions on the road
Traffic today CO2-emissions road
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Efficiency road Regulation road
56
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database, 2016
EU: Increased energy efficiency in road traffic
► The use of energy per unit of output has reduced considerably in European road traffic since 2000.► But: Since 2007, truck traffic in the EU has relinquished a portion of its efficiency gains. Two new EU standards
related to the reduction of pollutants were introduced in this time period, which likely led to the increased consumption of new vehicles.
► The increased efficiency of cars has accelerated considerably since 2007.
+
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
Trucksin kWh/1.000tkm
0 125 250 375 500 625 750
2000 2007 2015
-10%
Change2000 - 2014Change
2007 - 2015
-19%
-2,5%
-0,0%
0 100 200 300 400 500
2000 2007 2015
-8,4%
Carsin kWh/1.000pkm
-11%-4,3%
-6,4%
57
248,65
209,94
24,34 63,1
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database Juli 2018
Increases in efficiency are obscured by growth in the quantityof freight transported
EU freight transport between 2000 and 2016
Development of energy consumption by impact, in terawatt hours (TWh)
More traffic Overall impact
+29,8
Efficiency Other,Modal shift
► More efficient vehicles and routing help to offset approximately the increased consumption resulting from other factors.
► Modal shift effects play a subordinate role with an additional consumption of 29 TWH.
+
58Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017
More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energyconsumption levels
Car traffic between 2000 und 2015
In terawatt hours (TWh)
Overall impact
OtherMore traffic
+175,4
Energyreductionmeasures
+123,3
-391,9
► As a result of increasing traffic volumes, energy consumption in car traffic has increased significantly since the year 2000.
► But: The dominant impact came about through more efficient vehicles.
► The total energy consumption in the year 2015 was on the same level as in the base year 2000.
+
203,7
59
9,3
-391,9
203,7
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017
More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energyconsumption levels
Car traffic between 2000 und 2015
2000 – 2007 in terawat hours (TWh)
Total impact
+96,1
+85,6
Energy savingmeasurements
Other
+144,6
More traffic
-155,2
► Around the turn of the millennium, additional traffic led to an increase in energy consumption. This effect has changed course in the last seven years.
► During the second half of the reported period, the reduction effect became dominant against the effect of additional traffic, driven by the increased distribution of more efficient vehicles.
+
2007 – 2015 in terawat hours (TWh)
Total impact
-49,0
Energy savingmeasurements
-80,5Other
-82,3
More traffic
+50,8
60Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: KBA 2016; EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2016
Diesel ensures lower emissions from large cars
New car registrations in GermanyMarket shares by segment and engine type, in %
► Diesel is increasingly becoming the preferred engine for large vehicles that spend the most time on the road, while petrol engines still dominate the smaller car classes.
► As a result of this trend diesel engines have become heavier (more powerful), and petrol engines have been catching up in terms of standard fuel consumption. In 2016 a diesel car was 300 kg heavier than a petrol car.
► Fuel efficiency has in fact improved at essentially the same rate for both engine types.► Luxury Class has by the highest share of alternative fuels.
+
Ø vehiclemass in kg
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
1.700
1.800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ø CO2-Emissions in g
Diesel Petrol
Increased efficiency 2004 – 2016
Emission per kg vehicle massDiesel - 28,68% Petrol - 28,12%
96%
87%
69%
38%
22%
29%
62%
91%
71%
40%
24%
19%
1%
6%
25%
55%
66%
34%
34%
7%
23%
59%
75%
77%
11%
37%
Mini
Small
Compact
Medium
Upper Medium
Luxury
Off road
Sports car
Mini Van
Large Van
Utility
Other
Diesel Petrol Alternative
61Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: own calculations
Where would Germany be without diesel?
CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2017By segment and engine type, in g per km
► Diesel emissions are lower than those of petrol in all vehicle segments.
► Diesel engines dominate the larger classes of vehicles.
► The emissions level of new vehicles would be significantly higher without the use of diesel engines.
+
How would emission levels compare if a portion of the diesel engines were replaced by petrol engines?CO2 emissions in g per km
127,1
131,8
120,4
Real Petrol only Diesel only
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Mini
Small
Compact
Medium
Upper Medium
Luxury
Off road
Sports car
Mini Van
Large Van
Utility
Other
Diesel
Petrol
62Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
63
Development of road transport performence and CO2-Emissions of road transport in Germany since 2000
Transport growth dominates the balance
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Road transport performence +41%
CO2-Emissions -10%
The ca lculation ofthe transport performance is carried out according to method of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen; Ca lculation factor 1tkm = 10 pkm
Source: Umweltbundesamt; Kraftfahrtbundesamt; Own Calculations
CO2-Regulation in Europe
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175
1 Gear 2 Gear 3 Gear 4 Gear 5 Gear 6 Gear
Speed in km/h
Consumptionl/100km
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: VW
Shifting gears early saves fuel: the fuel consumption curve of a Golf 1.4 TFSI (90 kW) in relation to its speed
The driver determines the fuel consumption
► Fuel saving training courses: Following the course, participants used approximately 20 per cent less fuel than before. In Germany alone, the reduction potential from fuel-efficient driving is estimated at 12 million tonnes of CO2.
► Gear shifting support is particularly effective in urban traffic: when driving at a speed of 50 km per hour, the test vehicle consumes 1.2 litres less in fifth gear than in third.
+
64Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
Make 3 on 2
Two long trucks are able to transport as much load as threestandard trucks.
Low fuel consumption
The long truck rides more efficient than other trucks.Consequence: less fuel consumption per load.
65CO2-Regulation in Europe
Make 3 on 2 – Bigger Loading volume cutsfuel consumption
Standard truck 1 Standard truck 2 Standard truck 3
Load
Standard truck 1
Standard truck 2
Standard truck 3
+50%
+50%
16,5 m
Conventional semitrailer
17,8 m
Long semitrailer
Long truck
25,25 m
-10%CO2
-25%CO2
Route networkLong truck
Long truck 1
Long truck 2
Long truck 2Long truck 1
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
* Results from a field experiment of the federal government; loads were transported with a density of 0,72 kg/dm3 (paper: 0,8 kg/dm3)Source: BMVI
Long trucks: 15 per cent efficiencyimprovements confirmed in practical test*
► Long trucks are significantly more efficient in transporting high load volumes than conventional semitrailers. ► The advance in efficiency of a good 15 per cent lasts als long as the load volume will be fully used.► Heavy loads can be transported much more efficiently than with normal trucks.► A long truck consumes more fuel than a conventional semitrailer. This does only pay for the carrier, if he moves
more load than the today‘s truck can carry.
+
Long truck Conventional semitrailer
gross vehicle weight: 40tLoad volume: 155 m3
Valued track section: 8,900 kmØ Fuel consumption: 33.9 l/100 km
gross vehicle weight : 36tLoad volume : 100 m3
Valued track section : 10,700 kmØ Fuel consumption : 24.1 l /100 km
2,81
0,21
3,37
0,24
Payload in l /100 tkm Volume in l/100 m3km
Transport efficiency
+15%
66Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
More fuel efficient vehicles have led to a considerable increase in the overall efficiency of road traffic since the year 2000.
Increased traffic volumes have long prevented the more efficient vehicle technology from actually lowering the overall level of emissions.
Diesel engines were a major driver of the increasing efficiency. They have led to considerably lower emissions, particularly in the case of larger vehicles.
Low-cost possibilities for increasing efficiency are being wasted. Fuel saving training courses can reduce consumption by 20 per cent.
The licensing of larger trucks could also save a lot of fuel.
Summary: Efficiency on the road
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions today Efficiency road Regulation road
67
CO2-Regulation in Europe
* In legislation processSource: ICCT, 2018
in g CO2/km under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
The most stringent CO2 target values for new vehicles
► The EU emission standard for 2021 is the most stringent standard in the world.► Even in 2025 it is unlikely that any country on earth will have more stringent limit values than the one stipulated
by the EU for 2021.► The limit values being discussed in the EU for the year 2025 would be up to 50 per cent lower than those in the
USA.► In November 2017 the EU Kommission proposed to lower the limit value within the period of 2021 until 2025 by
15 per cent and to codify a minus of 30 per cent until 2030.
+
*
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
68
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US EU Japan China
205
172
187
152
118
115
151
213
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
95
117 105
125
97
81*
Actual levels for 2002 – 2016 Adopted for 2020–2025
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, EEA
in g CO2/km
CO2 target values for 2021: High demands on the automotive industry
Independent of vehicle weight, manufacturers of large cars have to show greater reductions than high-volume manufacturers.
In the nine years from 2006 to 2015, a reduction of the average emissions by 30 g CO2/km was required of new vehicles – from 160 g CO2/km down to 130 g CO2/km .
Speeding up the pace: In the six years from 2015 to 2021, average emissions must be reduced by 35 g CO2/km – from 130 g CO2/km down to 95 g CO2/km. For 2025 a suggestion has been raised by the commission of 81 g CO2/km, that is a minus of 14 g CO2/km in four years.
+Average weight of new passenger cars in kg
69Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
FCA Italy
RenaultToyota
Ford
VW Group
PSA
Mazda
Hyundai BMW Group
Daimler
EU: Fleet 2006
EU: Targetcurve 2015
EU: Targetcurve 2021
9 Jahre
6 Jahre
Real Values in 2017
Volvo130
95
160
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EU Kommission DG Transport, Weekly Oi l Bulletin
Fuel tax per litre, in euro – status as of: 28. January 2019
High CO2 emissions mean high payments:
91,587,7
84,584,4
75,474,273,773,473,3
70,769,968,668,166,966,766,0
63,461,360,659,859,758,658,3
56,956,2
53,650,8
49,0
0 30 60 90 120
United KingdomItaly
FranceBelgiumSwedenIreland
PortugalNetherlands
FinlandEstonia
DenmarkSlovenia
GreeceCroatia
GermanyMalta
Czech RepublicHungary
AustriaCyprus
SlovakiaLatviaSpain
RomaniaPoland
LithuaniaBulgaria
Luxembourg
Diesel
107,4103,0102,5
97,795,494,994,6
93,190,4
88,787,986,5
81,380,479,378,8
74,972,271,370,970,269,2
65,264,663,9
61,961,0
55,3
0 30 60 90 120
NetherlandsGreece
ItalyFinlandFrance
SwedenDenmarkPortugal
United KingdomGermany
IrelandBelgiumEstoniaCroatia
SloveniaMalta
SlovakiaCzech Republic
LatviaAustria
SpainLuxembourg
LithuaniaHungary
CyprusPoland
RomaniaBulgaria
Petrol
70Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, UBA, Weekly Oi l Bulletib, own calculations
CO2 from cars comes at a high cost in the EU
► From 2021, full penalty fees will apply to car manufacturers who do not reach their specific target.
► If a car drives 200,000 km, a reduction by 1g/km corresponds to an emissions reduction of 200 kg over the life of the vehicle.
► Based on this assumption, the manufacturer will pay a penalty of 475 euros per tonne of CO2.
► This cost is considerably higher than what others have to pay.
+
A penalty of 95 euros will apply for each gram that exceeds the target, for each vehicle sold. This corresponds to approximately 475 euros per tonne of CO2
CO2-Pricesin euros pro tonne
475
367
145
80
30
13Carbon credits (as ofApril 2018)
Carbon credits (targetfor 2020)
Damage costs 2010 (UBA)
Damage costs 2030 (UBA)
Petrol Taxation (EU average)
Emission standard forcars
71Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IKA Aachen
The potential for further reduction exists but is becoming harder to achieve
1 HCCI2 Thermoelectric generator3 Variable compression
4Lightweight construction (comprehensive)
5 Improved EGR
6Direct injection w/ stratified charge
7 Cylinder deactivation8 Full hybrid9 Micro-hybrid
10 Dual clutch transmissions11 Homogeneous direct injection
12Fully variable valve control system
► Due to the technologies needed for boosting efficiency, new vehicles will cost approximately 2,700 euros more in 2020.
► This expense will be offset, however, by savings resulting from lower fuel consumption. These savings are spread across the entire life of the vehicle (17 years on average); so, the first customer will only enjoy part of this benefit but will carry the full cost of the new technologies when purchasing the vehicle.
+
Research Pre-development Series development Series
Petrol engines (compact class)CO2 reduction potential in %
Technology costs in €
1
2
46
8
910
110
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1.000 2.000 3.000
Diesel (compact class)CO2 reduction potential in %
Technology costs in €
23
4
57
8
910
120
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1.000 2.000 3.000
72Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
73CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ev-sales.blogspot, 2019
New vehicles BEV/PHEV: 358,645 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 72,636
New vehicles and top-selling models of the year 2018
Electric cars: hardly any global models
World 20182,018,247
Market share2.1%
Market share4.2%
Market share2.5%
Market share49.0%
New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 386,347 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 1,102,375
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
1. Tesla 32. Toyota Prius PHV 3. Tesla X4. Tesla S5. Chevrolet Volt
1. Nissan Leaf2. Renault Zoe3. BMW i3 4. Mitsubishi Outlander5. Volkswagen E Golf
1. Nissan Leaf2. Volkswagen E Golf3. BMW i34. Tesla X5. Mitsubishi Outlander
1. BAIC EC Series2. BYD Qin PHEV3. JAC iEV S/E4. BYD e55. Cherry EQ
Market share forecasts for electric vehicles
7%
30%
18%
36%
8% 9% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current forecasts for the global market share in the year 2025
Bloomberg08/2017
PWC 01/2018
Allforecasts
predict a highermarket share in
Europe
TypicallyBEV and FCEV
Make up for 55 to 60Percent of the
electric vehicles.
74
FAST 203005/2018BEV/FCVonly
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
These numbers include BEV, FCV and PHEV
Market driven by thedemand side
KPMG 01/2017 Deloitte 02/2017
FastLearning curve
RegulatedMarktet
SlowLearning curve
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EU Komission, Own calculations
Emissions from PHEV arecalculated on the basis ofthe emissions in combustion operations and of theelectric coverage of the car.
Firstly the PHEV participatesin the European testing cycle(NEDC) in combustionoperations.
Then it runs the cycle drivenon electrical energy as longas the battery lasts.
Depending on the such determined coverage of thecar a pro rata deductionfrom the emissions in pure combustion operations isapplied.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77Electric coverage in kilometers in NEDC testing cycle
Emissions calculations for PHEV
Allo
cate
dem
issi
on
sin
co
mb
ust
ion
op
erat
ion
sin
per
cen
t
With a 25 km Electric coverage
of the carthe deduction
of 50per cent
is applied.
CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
76CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: TU Graz, 2018
CO2emissions of a middle class car with different drive versionsand speed
Speed makes the difference
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
CO
2 in
g/k
m
v in km/h
HBEFA cycles with 0 % gradiant
Euro 6 diesel Plug-In-Hybrid Tank-to-Wheel
Euro 6 petrol Plug-In-Hybrid Well-to-Wheel
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
77CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IEA, Co2-Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2018, own calculations
CO2 emissions of power production and electric cars
Electricity mix will decide on climate friendliness
CO2 emissions or power productionin gCO2/kWh
With a fuel consumption of 20 kWh/100km an electric car emits … gCO2/km
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
627
544
726
433
299
447 464
80
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
125,4
108,8
145,2
86,6
59,8
89,4 92,8
1,60
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Source: Bloomberg, MBI
Lithium is highlyreactive and istherefore tradedin the form oflithiumcarbonate.
Currently thedemand isgrowing muchfaster thansupply.
Only four plantsaccount for 80 per cent of theworldwideproduction oflithium.
Price indices of lithium turned down
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
31.0
1.20
09
30.0
6.20
09
30.1
1.20
09
30.0
4.20
10
30.0
9.20
10
28.0
2.20
11
31.0
7.20
11
31.1
2.20
11
31.0
5.20
12
31.1
0.20
12
31.0
3.20
13
31.0
8.20
13
31.0
1.20
14
30.0
6.20
14
30.1
1.20
14
30.0
4.20
15
30.0
9.20
15
29.0
2.20
16
31.0
7.20
16
31.1
2.20
16
31.0
5.20
17
31.1
0.20
17
31.0
3.20
18
31.0
8.20
18
31.0
1.20
19
Asia Lithium Carbonate CIF Swa Europe Lithium Carbonate CIF S
North America Lithium Carbonat
Source: Bloomberg
Bargain prices forcobalt have risensince March 2015 bya good 200 per centand went down sinceMay 2018.
Cobalt is mostly a by-product of the nickeland copper mining.
Falling prices ofnickel and copperdampen cobaltproduction.
Bargain prices for important raw materials
CO2-Regulation in Europe
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
100.000
01.0
2.20
10
01.0
7.20
10
01.1
2.20
10
01.0
5.20
11
01.1
0.20
11
01.0
3.20
12
01.0
8.20
12
01.0
1.20
13
01.0
6.20
13
01.1
1.20
13
01.0
4.20
14
01.0
9.20
14
01.0
2.20
15
01.0
7.20
15
01.1
2.20
15
01.0
5.20
16
01.1
0.20
16
01.0
3.20
17
01.0
8.20
17
01.0
1.20
18
01.0
6.20
18
01.1
1.20
18
LME COBALT SPOT ($) LME NICKEL SPOT ($) LME COPPER SPOT ($)
Rechargeable batteries Ceramics Glass Ceramics
Lubricants Glass Ceramics Polymers
Metallpowders Air processing Non-chargeable Batteries
80
Quel len: Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (DERA), 2016, 2017 (Ursprungsdaten), eigene Darstellung
Status quo versus Forecast 2025
Use of Lithium according to applications
66,67,1
6,4
4,2
2,7
2,5 3,1
1,40
0,1
4,9
2025 (DERA)
37,4
13,412
7,9
5,1
4,5
5
2,50,4 0
10,2
2015 (Roskill)
CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
81
Quellen: Cobalt Development Institute (CDI), 2016; Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (DERA), 2016 (Ursprungsdaten), eigene Darstellung
Li-Ionen-Batteries90%
Superalloys7%
Synfuels2%
Medical Implants
1%
Other0%
2035
Batteries42%
Superalloys(Ni, Co, Fe, Cr)
16%other alloys
10%
Hard metall7%
Catalysts
7%
Magnets5%
Other
13%2014
Usage in 2014 (CDI) and prognosis to 2035 (DERA)
Use of Cobalt
CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
82CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Mai 2017
33,9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Lithium
Cobalt
Graphit
Nickel
per year… per cent of thereserves would be eaten up.
the demand for raw materialswould be … per cent higher.
In a world with 100 per cent of electric cars of present design …
New battery types are required
2.511%
1.928%
264%
118%
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000
Lithium
Cobalt
Graphit
Nickel
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
83CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, 2017
5786
177
10
18
46
36
35
49
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2021
China USA Other countries
Cell production in GWh, consisting and developing
Battery cells: China propels capacity building
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The EU has waived the world’s most stringent CO2 emission levels for cars. In 2021, the limit values will be one-third lower than those of the USA.
CO2 emissions from road traffic are priced higher by the EU than emissions from other sources.
The “low-hanging fruits” have already been picked – and it will become more expensive in the future.
The manufacturers of large vehicles, in particular, have to gradually focus on the switch to electric powertrains. But: Today, the market run-up for electric cars and plug-in hybrids is slowing down. And no one knows how the market for these vehicles will develop in the future.
Summary: regulation on the road
Regulation road
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency roadCO2-emissions road
84
85
1 Megatrends
2 Political framework
3 Transportation sector
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in EuropeOther sectors
Power Industry Households
86
In the EU, the emissions from public heat and power generation are approximately 15 per cent less than the levels in 1990.
› More efficient power plants and a changing power mix help to cover the overconsumption.
Power generation underlies European emissions trading. Emissions trading consists of two components:
› A prescribed cap on emission volumes that will continuously decrease up to the year 2020.
› A tool for distributing the burden (trade). The market for carbon credits ensures that the EU will meet the prescribed emission volumes at low costs.
CO2 in other sectors: power generation
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2017 (v20)
CO2EQ- emissions of public heat and power generation, 1990 = 100
The reduction can be credited to Eastern Europe in particular
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EU 28 EU 15 Eastern European Acces Countries
97,3
71,0
61,4
108,5
75,9
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
87CO2-Regulation in Europe
-344.1400.5
593.5
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database July 2018
in Terawatt hours (TWh) of primary energy use; changes from 2000 – 2016
Power generation – consumption of fossil primary energy declining
Overall impact
Power Mix
-649.3
Electricityconsumption
More efficientfossil power
plants
Electricity consumption in Europe is persistently increasing.
Yet fewer fossil primaryenergy carriers are being consumed.
Power generation is not an end in itself; it facilitates production and consumption in the industrial sector and in homes.
+
88Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, DIW
Volume of carbon credits in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), in millions of tonnes
Cap: A government-prescribed reduction
► Specific: The emissions target of -21 per cent is sure to be met on account of the decreasing cap.
► Apportioned: The initial auctioning of 20 per cent is expected to increase to 60 per cent by 2020.
► Flexible: It is not stipulated which trade participant will bring about the reduction.
+
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030
Ziel2030
3rd tradeperiod cap
2nd tradeperiod cap
1st tradeperiod cap Discussed
reductionrate after
2020-2,2%
-21%
Reduction rate by 2020-1,74%
89Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Trade: Emissions trading ensures an efficient distribution of the reduction burden
► In the example above, Plant 1 renders the entire reduction but has three-fourths of the costs reimbursed through emissions trading. The example shows that both plants save thousands of euros compared to a restriction on emissions.
► The specific distribution of the reduction burden arises from the carbon credit price and the particular reduction costs.
► Participants with high abatement costs help to finance other participants’ reduction efforts.
+
Exhaust up to now,in tonnes
Permiss-ibleexhaustin the future,in tonnes
Reduc-tioncosts per tonne
Totalcosts
5,000 4,500 20 10,000
5,000 4,500 50 25,000
10,000 9,000 35,000 Gesamt
Exhaust up to now,in tonnes
Permiss-ibleexhaustin the future,in tonnes
Carbon credits received, in tonnes
Reduc-tioncosts per tonne
Achievedreduction, in tonnes
Cost for thereduction
Trade, in tonnes
Tradein euros
Tota lcosts bytrade
5,000
Insg.
9,000
4,500 20 1,000 20,000 5,000
5,000 4,500 50 0 0 15,000
10,000 9,000 9,000 1,000 20,000 500 15,000 20,000
15,000500
Plant 1
Plant 2
Case 1:
Emission restrictionsCase 2:
Emissions trading: Carbon credit price at 30 euros per tonne
90Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
-1
-3
18
54427
357 356
303
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2000 2010 2015
Power generation: CO2 emissions are still on the rise, in spite of the increasing share of renewable energies.
The reason: Renewable energies are, in particular, replacing natural gas and coal -fired power plants; nuclear energy use is also declining. Lignite is filling the resulting base load gap.
The subsidisation of renewable energies has resulted in an increased volatility of supply. This frequently results in surplus power that has to be exported outside the country at a cheap rate.
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen 2018, EEA 2018 (v21)
Power generation and trade in GermanyPower mix
The subsidisation of renewable energies leads to an increasing export of electricity
Germany’s energy transition: Unexpected results
+
GHG-Emissions in Mio. t CO2
Balance of trade in TWH
91
31,1 25,7 23,0 22,5
27,729,4
22,2
25,624,8
18,5
14,1
3,6 6,616,6
33,3
5,5 4,9 5,6 4,3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2017
Others Renewable Natural gas
Hard coal Nuclear energy Lignite
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The CO2 emissions of the industrial sector have declined by one-fourth in the last 20 years.
› Increased efficiency: Emissions in the industrial sector decreased by one-third per euro of added value.
The industrial sector is governed by various regulations:
› Electricity consumption is subject to emissions trading and a high rate of taxation. In the USA, industrial energy costs only about half as much as the EU average.
› The EU Ecodesign Directive sets maximum tolerances for the energy consumption of consumer products such as lamps and household appliances. Products that do not meet the standard have to be removed from the market. The most noticeable target: light bulbs.
CO2 in other sectors: industry
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
92
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017
Improved efficiency: One-third fewer emissions per euro of added value since 1995kg CO2/Euro2005
CO2 emissions in the industrial sector are declining: -25% since 1995in millions of tonnes of CO2
► Regulation: The largest share of CO2 emissions caused by industrial activities is subject to emissions trading.► Increased efficiency: The emissions per unit of gross value have decreased by a good third since 1995.► Deindustrialisation: The movement of industrial activities out of many European countries has resulted in a decrease of
CO2 emissions in the EU.
+
CO2-Intensität
CO2-Intensitätinkl. Strom
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
Industry in the EU 28: Decreased emissions, greatly improved efficiency
93
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Through powerconsumption*Other
Steel
Chemicals
Food
Paper
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
1995 2005 2015
-45%
-47%
CO2-Regulation in Europe
* For information onlySources: Eurostat 2018, BDI
In cent pro kWh for companies with a consumption of 20 to 70 gigawatt hours
Industrial energy prices in the second half of 2017: Much less expensive in the USA
Industrial energy prices in Europe are much higher than those of international competitors.
The biggest difference is in comparison to the USA, wherea kWh costs approximately 45 per cent less than in Europe.
The highest prices apply in the UK and Italy. But for totally different reasons.
Recoverable taxes – such as VAT – are viewed as transitory items for the company.
+
94
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
UK
Italy
Belgium
Portugal
Germany
Spain
Austria
Poland
France
EU 28
Czech Republik
France
Netherlands
Sweden
China*
India*
USA*
Product price
Non-recoverable tax
Recoverable tax
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Household CO2 emissions have decreased by 13 per cent since 1990.
› In the same reporting period, the number of households and the living space per person increased substantially.
The key to future emission reductions is in the area of heating.
› Heating constitutes 70 per cent of a household’s total energy consumption.
› In spite of the EU Ecodesign Directive, consumption has greatly increased through the use of electric appliances, since households contain an increasing number of them.
The installation of new heating units results in very low CO2
abatement costs, but it rarely pays off for home owners without subsidisation.
CO2 in other sectors: Households
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
95
Energy savings
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017
Households: Decreasing CO2 emissions despite higher demands in living spaces
CO2-Emissionsin millions of tonnes
Nearly half of household emissions fall under emissions trading.
The trend is leaning towards more households and larger apartments, which increases emissions.
Besides emissions trading, households are impacted by electricity taxes and energy consumption regulations for buildings.
+
Changes in household energy consumption between 2000 and 2016in terawatt hours (TWh)
Direct CO2 emissions from households (heating, hot water)
Emissions from household electricity consumption
Overall impact
Other
-1.203,8
Larger l iving spaces
More electric appliancesper household
Climatic faktor
More households+503,7
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
96
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-23%
-26%
-71.7
-58.0
+196.6
+377.4
+516.2
+70.7
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017
Significant progress per square metre of living space1990 = 100
The heating system is the key to lower emissionsin terawatt hours (TWh)
Energy consumption: the potential lies in the heating market
► Heating systems consume about 70 per cent of the final energy in households.
► Advancements in heating efficiency are almost entirely eaten up by increased living space.
► Electric appliances only play a minor role; however, due to the increasing number of appliances per household, overall energy consumption has risen by 45 per cent since 1990.
+
97
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
1990 2000 2015
Heating Hot water
Cooking Electric appliances
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Energy consumption for light per m2
Energy consumption for heating per m2
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends
98
1 Megatrends
2 Political framework
3 Transportation sector
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in EuropeOutlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core theses
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Limit values for cars: Only indirect influence on actual CO2 emissions
► Today, Europe regulates a car’s emissions potential in grams per kilometre.
► However, the actual target is the avoidance of CO2 emissions in tonnes.
► There is no direct connection between emissions potential and actual emissions. The real impact is determined
by the user.
► Result: Today’s regulation is not precise and does not correspond to the regulation in other sectors.
+
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
!
Assumptions
Under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), a better transmission will save 4 g CO2/km.
The transmission costs an additional 200 euros.
In Europe, an average car travels approximately 200,000 kilometres during its lifetime.
CO2 savings, in tonnes:
4 g/km * 200,000 km = 800,000 g = 0.8 tonnes
Investment costs, in euros per tonne:
200 € / 0.8 tonnes = 250 € per tonne
99
CO2-Regulation in Europe
* Extrapolation from published reports ** Ca lculated based on the average va lue of the respective line.Sources: AGFW, IKA Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge Aachen, EU
Expensive CO2 avoidance leads to excess burden
Problem: CO2 avoidance in cars is already comparatively expensive
CO2 avoidance in cars is expensive and would be cheaper to obtain in other sectors
The reduction costs differ greatly from sector to sector. The avoidance of car emissions by means of improved technologies is relatively expensive, and these costs will continue to
increase. Sector-based reduction targets lead to high additional costs in the economy. In the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), permissible emissions are offset by carbon credits. One credit allows the emission of a
tonne of CO2. The trade with carbon credits ensures that the emission volume stipulated by the EU is generated where the reductions are least
expensive
+
0 100 200 300 400
Manuf. figures 2014*
IKA Aachen 2012
IKA Aachen (2016)
IKA Aachen (2021)
Hydroelectric power
Wind power
Carb. credit price today
Target price for 2020
Cars
Electricity
In € per tonne
5.338
150
500
1.250
8.688750
Cars
Carbon credits
Hydroelectri…
Wind power
Cars
Carbon credits
Assumption: CO2 emissions in Europe are to be reduced by 25 million tonnes. Comparison of the resulting costs today and in 2020 in millions of euros**
Heute
2020
100
CO2 market
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Daimler
Absolute car emissions
in millions of tonnes of CO2
Relative car emissions
in g CO2/km
Based on model calculation. With today’s regulation, an emissions reduction of 30 per cent is achievable between 2005 and 2030. This corresponds to the EU target for non-ETS sectors
Efficient new vehicles impact the vehicle fleet
The average consumption of the existing fleet is only gradually reacting to the more efficient new vehicles. That is why a difference can be seen between the emissions of new vehicles and the entire fleet.
The gap will close once most of the older vehicles with higher emissions are taken off the roads. Based on a conservative estimate, the ongoing replacement of old vehicles will result in car traffic emissions in Europe decr easing by approximately 30 per cent
by 2030, compared to the year 2005.
Until 2014, the fleet was dominated by vehicles built before 2005. Several million of these vehicles will still be on the road in 2030. The advancements of recent years will long continue to have an impact on the vehicle fleet. Even if new vehicles were to hardly show improvements after 2021,
the fleet emissions would continue to decrease. In regard to cars, the EU target can be achieved with the existing regulation
+
90
110
130
150
170
190
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
New vehicles
Entire fleet
40gr
22gr
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
Vehicles built before 2005
Vehicles built since 2005
-32%
101Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, UN
WLTP: Depiction of a car ride, based on worldwide averages
NEDC: Introduced in 1996 to calculate exhaust emissions
WLTP: A new test requires new limit values
► A test cycle should facilitate legally compliant comparability.► There are various cycles today. The EU and China use the NEDC, while the USA and Japan have their own tests.► The figures on car emissions depend heavily on the test cycle; they are not simply convertible.► Trials show that higher emissions levels are identified in the WLTP than in the NEDC. With the introduction of the WLTP, the
regulation of limit values will have to start completely afresh.► But: Even WLTP is “only” a test. It facilitates comparability under standardised conditions; hence, it represents an
approximation of global driving behaviour, yet does not determine a value that is achievable in all contexts.
+
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
The WLTP is intended to apply
globally. Manufacturers’test costs are expected to be reduced through
the implementationof the WLTP.
Speed in km/h
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Low Middle High Extra high
Time in seconds
102Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
103
Limits of standardization in RDE consumption measuring
RDE Tests: wide dispersion even with maximum standardization
1 Expected dispersion of the results: 8 gCO2/kmMeasurement technology
• Standardised PEMS-systems per vehicle (homogeneous within the measuring organisation)• Calibration of the PEMS-system by aligning with test bed measurments• But: the achievable measurement inaccuracy using the up-to-date technique lies around±2,5 per
cent.
Ein einzelner Wert kann nur einen Mittelwert darstellen.
2 Environment & driver Expected dispersion of the results: 10 gCO2/km
• Defined environmental conditions (moderate temperatures, favourable weather, gentle wind at maximum)
• Trained driver, who refer to the shift point display and create reproducable results
• But: Slight variations, for example in wind and driving style lead to visible deviations.
3 Route Expected dispersion of the results: 12 gCO2/km
4 Vehicle
• Trips on a reference line in the same time and driving direction
• No fixed time slots but adaption to comparable traffic volume on the reference line
• But: density of traffic, average speed and shares of start/stop are not reproducable.
• Comparable vehicle, as far as the status of running-in, technical upgrades, inflation pressure etc. isconcerned
• Comparable use of vehicles: additional load, electrical consumers, window opening or driving mode
• But: reactions to environmental conditions ( e.g. temperature) affect the consumption.
Expected dispersion of the results: 6 gCO2/km
CO2-Regulation in EuropeOutlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The system of regulating limit values levels exhibits structural problems.
Inaccurate: The greatest disadvantage is the lack of precision, since the regulations affect potential emissions rather than actual emissions.
Expensive: Technology-driven savings in road traffic represent one of the most expensive possibilities for reducing CO2 emissions.
Long-dated: It will still take years before the full impact of already-achieved improvements is reflected in statistics.
An acute continuation of the regulation of limit values does not currently appear very promising. Alternatives to the current system must be sought.
Summary: Limits of the system
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPollitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
104
Vehicle limit values only regulate potential emissions.
The actual emissions are determined just as much by drivers as by the infrastructure.
CO2-Regulation in Europe
To reduce emissions, drivers and the government need to be involved in the process
Improved regulation: Emissions standards for vehicles fall too short
+
Integrated approach: Include all areas in the regulation process
Optimisation of combustion engine Alternative fuels Lightweight construction Switching to electric powertrains Use of digitalisation (avoidance of
parking-related traffic)
Route (how much?)
Driving style(how?)
Vehicle selection (with what?)
Infrastructure conditions Construction site management Promotion of transmissions
and fuels that produce fewer emissions Replacement of existing vehicles
Total emissions in tonnes = Consumption in litres * Emissions factor in kg CO2/litre * Mileage
DriverAutomotive industry Government
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
105
An integrated approach prevents rebound effects and can considerably increase savings.
Various instruments are needed in order to enhance all potential savings.
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ACEA
Estimate based on road freight traffic
Integrated approach: Future regulation must cover all areas
+
Kraftstoffe
Vehicle-related measures
Vehicle Trailer Tyres Alternative fuels
Vehicle operation
Operation Infrastructure Fleet replacement
Efficient engines
Aero-dynamics
Assisted driving systems
Permissible size (more transport volume)
Aerodynamics Lightweight
construction Assisted
driving systems
Low-resistance tyres
Air pressurecontrols
Super Singles
Second-generation biofuels Synthetic fuels Natural gas (LNG)
Driver training
Route planning
Volume utilisation
Improved infrastructure(road closures, detours)
Telematics Congestion
control
Replacement of Euro 0–III vehicles(approx. 5% additional fleet replacement)
CO
2-e
mis
sio
ns
CO
2-Em
issi
on
en
-6% -2,5% -13%+ + = -21,5%
106
Fuels
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
One stop towards an integrated approach would be the inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading. Fuel consumption can be precisely calculated in emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be integrated in the existing system of limit values; this is not a problem in emissions trading. The question remains as to who should make the carbon credits available
Emissions trading in road traffic: Is that possible?
Pros
Cons
Upstream – Tankstellenbetreiber
The corresponding carbon credits must be purchased for every litre sold. 1L Benzin = 2,3 kg CO2
1L Diesel = 2,6 kg CO2
Easy to implement technicallyLittle demand from the well-financedActual emissions are limited
It only indirectly addresses those who are actually generating the emissions. The connection to the driver is the price signal, as in the case of a fuel tax.
+
+
–
+
Midstream – Autohersteller
When a new vehicle is sold, a volume of carbon credits must be purchased that corresponds to the car’s expected emissions in its lifetime. In the case of 130 g CO2/km und 200.000 km: carbon
credits for 26 tonnes
Little demand from the well-financed
Inaccurate: The purchased amount represents a theoretical volume.The manufacturer only determines the potential emissions, not the actual emissions.The manufacturer only has an indirect influence over actual CO2 emissions.
+
–
–
–
107Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading offers certain benefits
Emissions trading: A useful supplement
Simple: The necessary amount of carbon credits per tank filling is easy to calculate. The required purchase can be paid for with the fuel.
Inexpensive for the driver: Based on the EU’s targeted price of 30 euros per carbon credit in the year 2020, a litre of petrol would cost 7 euro cent more.
Inexpensive for society: The abatement costs of road traffic are far above 30 euros per tonne. Emissions are avoided where it is cheaper to do so.
But: Since the transportation sector would be purchasing so many carbon credits, other sectors would have to substantially step up their reduction efforts. Good judgment will be necessary in order to avoid an overload in the other sectors.
Thus: Emissions trading is a useful supplement to today’s limit values.
+ETS Filling StationMain Street 111, 12345 New TownStation no. : 000000000xyzStation tax no. : 13/456/xyzxyzCompany tax no. : 01 234 56789Receipt no.1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22Card payment
*Super 65,13 EUR A #** Pump 03 43,45 l 1,499 EUR/l #*
*EU-ETS carbon credits 3,04 EUR #* C** 43,45l x 2,33 kg CO2/l = 101,24 kg CO2
* x 30,00 EUR/Credit for 1.000 kg CO2
Total 68,17 EUR
Type Net VAT GrossA: 19,00% 54,73 10,40 65,13C: 0,00% 3,04 0,00 3,04
Thank you for your visit. Have a safe trip!
108Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading serves as a useful supplement to the prevailing system of limit values.
› Emissions trading would increase the precision of the regulation, since it factors in the influence of the driver on the emissions that are produced.
› Emissions trading would also apply to freight transport – an area that is difficult to incorporate in the current system of limit values.
› Emissions trading would lead to lower reduction costs for the overall economy, since road traffic would enter the carbon credit market as more of a buyer.
But: Oil prices continue to create pressure to innovate, but there are several factors that speak in favour of setting a new limit value for the long term.
Summary: Alternatives
Ausblick
Grenzen des Systems Alternativen KernthesenPolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere SektorenMegatrends
109
CO2-Regulation in Europe
The core theses: Brief overview
110
Climate protection
1. Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is low and continuously decreasing. (100)
2. No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of emissions is being eaten up by growth in emerging economies. (103)
3. Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh of the CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in transportation emissions is declining. (106)
CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
4. New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in recent years. (108)
6. Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even shorter span of time. (112)
5. CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an international comparison. (110)
8. Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine types is still uncertain. (116)
7. Even without a further tightening of the CO2 limit values after 2020, the motor vehicle industry is still on track to meet the EU’s climate policy targets by 2030. (114)
9. EU environmental legislation is not coherent and, for a long time, had other priorities than CO2 reduction. This had various consequences, including an increase of CO2 emissions. (119)
10. Today’s CO2 laws regulate only new vehicles, completely disregarding the remaining vehicle fleet. (122)
11. An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach. (124)
Balance between climate protection and industrial policy
12. The EU is targeting a 20% industry share of GDP for the year 2020. This goal is presently a long way away, since industrial and climate protection policy are not yet aligned. (126)
13. The CO2 abatement costs vary greatly between sectors and are most pronounced in the automotive sector. (129)
14. Emissions trading as the most economically efficient form of CO2 regulation can easily be applied to road traffic. (131)
111CO2-Regulation in Europe
Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is low and continuously decreasing.
Core theses: Climate protection
1
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
112CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017
Emissions from fuel use, in millions of tonnes
CO2 emissions: Europe’s share sharply decreasing
10,3% 14,8%28,1%
23,4%23,2%
15,5%
19,6% 16,1% 9,9%
46,7% 45,9% 46,5%
1990 2002 2015
China USA EU Rest of the world
20.502 23.884
► Compared to the year 1990, the absolute CO2 emissions are decreasing in the EU only. The decline in the year 2015 amounts to 823 Million tons.
► In Asia in particular, emissions are rapidly increasing except for Japan.
► The impact of European regulations on global CO2
emissions continues to decline.
+32.294
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
113CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017
Emissions from fuel use* – Changes between 1990 and 2015, in millions of tonnes
Reduction in Europe, strong increase in Asia
While China shows an increase of approximately 331 per centduring the years 1990–2015, the EU shows a decrease of 21,5 per cent.
China still postet a growth in 2014 by a good 110 million tons. Whereas in 2015 emissionsstagnated in China.
India increased it’s emissions in2014 by nearly 170 Millionen tons, that is more than China. Also in 2015 emissions continuedto grow in India.
+
-823,0
+ 1.536,6
+ 6.975,4
EU India China
* Entspricht der Kategorie 1A nach UNFCCC Klassifikation
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
114CO2-Regulation in Europe
No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of emissions is being eaten up by growth in emerging economies.
Core theses: Climate protection
2
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
115CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21); IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017
EU passenger cars: Relevant, yet not crucial
CO2 emissions, in millions of tonnes
Relevant: Europe’s total passenger car traffic emitted a good 526 million tonnes of CO2
in 2015; that is an increasecompared with 2014.
Crucial? In just three weeksChina emits through its use offossil fuels more CO2 comparedto the car traffic in the EU – a fast growing trend.
Dynamic: Between the years2014 and 2015 the plus in China amounted to around 9,1 per centor 60 millions of tonnes. thiscorresponds to about 40 per centof the emissions on German roads.
+
450
554 538
63
372
698
121
375
523
EU Passenger car
traffic
China Road traffic
China CO2 emissions in 21 days
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
116CO2-Regulation in Europe
Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh of the CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in transportation emissions is declining.
Core theses: Climate protection
3
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
117CO2-Regulation in Europe
* For information only; ** Not including international air and maritime traffic. These are not classified as national emissions in the context of the Kyoto report.Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Figures for 2016, as percentage CO2EQ
CO2 emissions in the EU 28
Transportation sector by mode of transport
7,2%12,1%
47,7% 43,7%
26,4% 27,5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2016
CommercialVehiclesPassenger Cars
Civil aviation(national)Rail transport
WaterwaytransportOther
Int. aviation*
Int. seafaring*
Emissions according to sector
29,9%
21,3%9,9%
13,4%
10,8%
14,7%
Generationof heatand energy
Industry
Passenger cars
Othersectors
Other modes of transport**
Agriculture
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Absolute CO2EQ-emissions, 1990 = 100
Car traffic in the EU: CO2-emissions rising again
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
road cars
128,3
122,2123,1
116,5
► Car emissions have shown a much lower rate of increase than overall road traffic emissions.
► Car emissions have largely stagnated since 2002 and have been rapidly declining in 2011 but they are rising again since 2013.
+
118Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
119CO2-Regulation in Europe
New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in recent years.
Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
4
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: EEA, 2019
Emissions from new vehicles decreasing rapidly
Country
Average CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2017, in g per km
Change from 2007 to 2017, as percentage
Portugal 104,7 -27,25Denmark 108,3 -33,28Netherlands 107,1 -32,98Greece 108,8 -34,18France 110,4 -26,10Malta 111,0 -24,90Ireland 111,6 -30,94Croatia 113,1 k.A.Italy 113,3 -22,66Spain 115,0 -24,93Belgium 115,9 -24,15Finland 118,2 -33,33Slovenia 119,6 -23,48Romania 120,6 -22,09Austria 120,7 -25,90UK 121,1 -26,47Cyprus 122,2 -28,24Sweden 122,3 -32,58Czech Republik 124,1 -19,52Hungary 125,6 -18,97Slowakia 126,1 -17,42Bulgaria 126,2 -26,46Luxembourg 127,0 -23,40Germany 127,2 -24,96Lithuania 127,4 -27,82Poland 127,6 -16,89Latvia 128,8 -29,81Estonia 132,8 -26,87
< 110 g per km
< 120 g per km
< 125 g per km
≥ 125 g per km
CO2 Emissionen
Higheremissions in
the East. Four EU countries
below 110
120Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ACEA, 2016
CO2-emissions of new cars in the EU in per cent
High-emisson cars are on the decline
► Already today the mass of newcars emits clearly less than 130 g CO2/km.
► High-emission cars are on thedecline. In 1995 80 per cent of thenew cars emitted more than 160 g CO2/km .
► More than 1/10 of the new carsalready reach the target of theyear 2021.
+
97%
75%
22%
3%
25%
66%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2008 2016
> 130 g 96 g - 130 g <95 g
121Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
122
CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an international comparison.
Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
5
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
CO2-Regulation in Europe
CO2-Regulation in Europe
* In the legislative processSource: ICCT, 2016
In g CO2/km, under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
The most stringent CO2 target values for new vehicles
► The EU emission standard for 2021 is the most stringent standard in the world.► Even in 2025 it is unlikely that any country on earth will have a more stringent limit values than the one
stipulated by the EU for 2021.
► In November 2017 the EU commission suggested to lower the limit between 2021 and 2025 by 15 per cent andto stipulate a minus of 30 per cent until the year 2030.
+
Actual levels 2002 – 2016
*
123
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US EU Japan China
205
172
187
152
118
115
151
213
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
95
117
Adopted for 2020 - 2025
105
125
97
81*
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
124CO2-Regulation in Europe
Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even shorter span of time.
Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
6
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Sources: EU, EEA
in g CO2/km
CO2 target values for 2021: High demands on the automotive industry
Independent of vehicle weight, manufacturers of large cars have to show greater reductions than high-volume manufacturers.
In the nine years from 2006 to 2015, a reduction of the average emissions by 30 g CO2/km was required of new vehicles – from 160 g CO2/km down to 130 g CO2/km .
Speeding up the pace: In the six years from 2015 to 2021, average emissions must be reduced by 35 g CO2/km – from 130 g CO2/km down to 95 g CO2/km. For 2025 a suggestion has been raised by the commission of 81 g CO2/km, that is a minus of 14 g CO2/km in four years.
+Average weight of new passenger cars in kg
125
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
FCA Italy
RenaultToyota
Ford
VW Group
PSA
Mazda
Hyundai BMW Group
Daimler
EU: Fleet 2006
EU: Targetcurve 2015
EU: Targetcurve 2021
9 Jahre
6 Jahre
Real Values in 2017
Volvo130
95
160
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
126CO2-Regulation in Europe
Even without a further tightening of the CO2 limit value after 2020, the motor vehicle industry is still on track to meet the EU’s climate policy targets by 2030.
Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
7
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Daimler
Based on model calculation. With today’s regulation, an emissions reduction of 30 per cent is achievable between 2005 and 2030. This corresponds to the EU target for non-ETS sectors.
Efficient new vehicles impact the vehicle fleet
The average consumption of the existing fleet is only gradually reacting to the more efficient new vehicles. That is why a difference can be seen between the emissions of new vehicles and the entire fleet.
The gap will close once most of the older vehicles with higher emissions are taken off the roads. Based on a conservative estimate, the ongoing replacement of old vehicles will result in car traffic emissions in Europe decreasing by approximately 30 per cent
by 2030, compared to the year 2005.
Until 2014, the fleet was dominated by vehicles built before 2005. Several million of these vehicles will still be on the road in 2030. The advancements of recent years will long continue to have an impact on the vehicle fleet. Even if new vehicles were to hardly show improvements after 2021,
the fleet emissions would continue to decrease. In regard to cars, the EU target can be achieved with the existing regulation.
90
110
130
150
170
190
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
New vehicles Entire fleet
40gr22gr
Relative car emissionsin g CO2/km
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
Vehicles built before 2005
Vehicles built since 2005
-32%
Absolute car emissionsin millions of tonnes of CO2
+
127Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
128CO2-Regulation in Europe
Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine types is still uncertain.
Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
8
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
129CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: TU Graz, 2018
CO2 emissions of a middle class car depending on different drives types and speed
Speed makes the difference
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
CO
2in
g/k
m
v in km/h
HBEFA Cycles with 0% gradiant
Euro 6 Diesel Plug-In-Hybrid Tank-to-Wheel
Euro 6 Petrol Plug-In-Hybrid Well-to-Wheel
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
Source: EU Komission, Own calculations
Emissions from PHEV arecalculated on the basis ofthe emissions in combustion operations and of theelectric coverage of the car.
Firstly the PHEV participatesin the European testing cycle(NEDC) in combustionoperations.
Then it runs the cycle drivenon electrical energy as longas the battery lasts.
Depending on the such determined coverage of thecar a pro rata deductionfrom the emissions in pure combustion operations isapplied.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77Electric coverage in kilometers in NEDC testing cycle
Emissions calculations for PHEV
Allo
cate
dem
issi
on
sin
co
mb
ust
ion
op
erat
ion
sin
per
cen
t
With a 25 km Electric coverage
of the carthe deduction
of 50per cent
is applied.
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
131CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: ev-sales.blogspot, 2018
New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 199.822 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 62.170
New vehicles and top-selling models of the year 2017
Electric cars: hardly any global models
1. Tesla S2. Chevrolet Bolt3. Tesla X4. Toyota Prius PHV5. Chevrolet Volt
1. Renault Zoe2. BMW i33. Mitsubishi Outlander4. Nissan Leaf5. Tesla S
1. Volkswagen E Golf2. BMW i33. Tesla X4. Mitsubishi Outlander5. Tesla S
1. BAIC EC Series2. Zhidou D2 EV3. BYD Song PHEV4. Chery eQ5. JAC iEV6S/E
World 20171.224.103
Market share1.1%
Market share2.4%
Market share2.1%
Market share39.2%
New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 306.143 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 600.174
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
132CO2-Regulation in Europe
An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach.
Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
9
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: ACEA, 2017; VDA ,2017
Existing vehicles are not covered by the regulation
Limit values affect only new vehicles
► Each year, only about 5 per cent of the vehicle fleet in the EU is replaced.
► Existing vehicles hold huge potential for CO2 reduction.
► That is why measures for replacing the existing vehicle fleet are essential
+
Approx. 15.1 million new vehicles are licensed in the EU each year.
Alltogetherapprox. 255 Millionen cars
are licensed in the EU.
133Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
► Vehicle limit values only regulate potential emissions.
► The actual emissions are determined just as much by drivers as by the infrastructure
CO2-Regulation in Europe
To reduce emissions, drivers and the government need to be involved in the process
Improved regulation: Emissions standards for vehicles fall too short
+
Integrated approach: Include all areas in the regulation process
Optimisation of combustion engine Alternative fuels Lightweight construction Switching to electric powertrains Use of digitalisation (avoidance of
parking-related traffic)
Route (how much?)
Driving style(how?)
Vehicle selection (with what?)
Infrastructure conditions Construction site management Promotion of transmissions
and fuels that produce fewer emissions Replacement of existing vehicles
Total emissions in tonnes = Consumption in litres * Emissions factor in kg CO2/litre * Mileage
DriverAutomotive industry Government
134Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
135CO2-Regulation in Europe
The EU is targeting a 20% industry share of GDP for the year 2020. This goal is presently a long way away, since industrial and climate protection policy are not yet aligned.
Core theses: Balance between climate protection and industrial policy
10
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Eurostat
The manufacturing industry’s share of the gross value, as percentage
The EU industrial sector: Collapse rather than rebirth
► EU target: The industrial sector is expected to have a 20 per cent share of the GDP in 2020.
► Germany is reaching this target. The UK, Italy and France give cause for concern.
► Countries outside of Europe are improving quickly. Europe must respond in order to secure its position.
EU targetfor 2020
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Germany Spain France Italy UK EU 28
+
136Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
137CO2-Regulation in Europe
The CO2 abatement costs vary greatly between sectors and are most pronounced in the automotive sector.
Core theses: Balance between climate protection and industrial policy
11
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
138CO2-Regulation in Europe
* Extrapolation from published reports ** Calculated based on the average va lue of the respective line.Sources: : AGFW, IKA Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge Aachen, EU
Expensive CO2 avoidance leads to excess burden.
Problem: CO2 avoidance in cars is already comparatively expensive.
CO2 avoidance in cars is expensive and would be cheaper to obtain in other sectors
The reduction costs differ greatly from sector to sector. The avoidance of car emissions by means of improved technologies is relatively expensive, and
these costs will continue to increase. Sector-based reduction targets lead to high additional costs in the economy. In the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), permissible emissions are offset by carbon credits.
One credit allows the emission of a tonne of CO2. The trade with carbon credits ensures that the emission volume stipulated by the EU is
generated where the reductions are least expensive.
+
0 100 200 300 400
Manuf. figures 2014*
IKA Aachen 2012
IKA Aachen (2016)
IKA Aachen (2021)
Hydroelectric power
Wind power
Carbon credit price today
Zielpreis 2020
Cars
Electricity
CO2 market
In € pro Tonne Assumption: CO2 emissions in Europe are to be reduced by 25 million tonnes. Comparison of the resulting costs today and in 2020, in millions of euros**
5.338
150
500
1.250
8.688
750
Cars
Carboncredits
Hydroelectricpower
Wind power
Cars
Carboncredits
Today
2020
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
139CO2-Regulation in Europe
Emissions trading as the most economically efficient form of CO2 regulation can easily be applied to road traffic.
Core theses: CO2 regulation motor vehicles
12
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system
140CO2-Regulation in Europe
One stop towards an integrated approach would be the inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading. Fuel consumption can be precisely calculated in emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be integrated in the existing system of limit values; this is not a problem in emissions trading. The question remains as to who should make the carbon credits available:
Emissions trading in road traffic: It that possible?
Pro
Contra
Midstream: Car manufacturers
When a new vehicle is sold, a volume of carbon credits must be purchased that corresponds to the car’s expected emissions in its lifetime. In the case of 130 g CO2/km and 200.000 km:
carbon credits for 26 Tonnes
Little demand from the well-financed
Inaccurate: The purchased amount represents a theoretical volume.The manufacturer only determines the potential emissions, not the actual emissions.The manufacturer only has an indirect influence over actual CO2 emissions.
+
–
–
–
Upstream: Filling station operators
The corresponding carbon credits must be purchased for every litre sold. 1L petrol = 2,3 kg CO2
1L diesel = 2,6 kg CO2.
Easy to implement technicallyLittle demand from the well-financedActual emissions are limited.
It only indirectly addresses those who are actually generating the emissions. The connection to the driver is the price signal, as in the case of a fuel tax.
+
+
–
+
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
141CO2-Regulation in Europe
The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading offers certain benefits
Emissions trading: A useful supplement
+ Simple: The necessary amount of carbon credits per
tank filling is easy to calculate. The required purchase can be paid for with the fuel.
Inexpensive for the driver: Based on the EU’s targeted price of 30 euros per carbon credit in the year 2020, a litre of petrol would cost 7 euro cent more.
Inexpensive for society: The abatement costs of road traffic are far above 30 euros per tonne. Emissions are avoided where it is cheaper to do so.
But: Since the transportation sector would be purchasing so many carbon credits, other sectors would have to substantially step up their reduction efforts. Good judgment will be necessary in order to avoid an overload in the other sectors.
Thus: Emissions trading is a useful supplement to today’s limit values.
ETS Filling StationMain Street 111, 12345 New TownStation no.: 000000000xyzStation tax no.: 13/456/xyzxyzCompany tax no.: 01 234 56789Receipt no. 1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22Card payment
*Super 65.13 EUR A #**Pump 03 43.45 l 1.499 EUR/l #*
*EU ETS carbon credits 3.04 EUR C* #** 43.45 l x 2.33 kg CO2/l = 101.24 kg CO2
* x 30.00 EUR/credit for 1,000 kg CO2
Total 68.17 EUR
Type Net VAT GrossA: 19.00% 54.73 10.40 65.13C: 0.00% 3.04 0.00 3.04
Thank you for your visit. Have a safe trip!
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
143
Gestrichene Folien, die nicht mehr aktualisiert werden
Annex
144CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: Europäische Kommission
Anteil importierter Primärenergieträger am Verbrauch in Prozent
Der Verbrauch an Öl und Gas kann nicht aus heimischen Quellen gedeckt werden
Rohstoffe: Hohe Importabhängigkeit der EU
► Kaum Reserven: Die EU verfügt nur über1-3 Prozent der Reserven an fossilen Primärenergieträgern.
► Erschöpft: Die europäische Förderung von Öl und Gas sinkt.
► Problem: Auch wenn der Verbrauch sinkt, bestehen politische Abhängigkeiten von den Förderländern.
82% 84%
93% 94%
58%62%
76%83%
2005 2008 2020 2030
Öl Gas
+
Megatrends
CO2-Emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick
CO2-Regulation in Europe
*Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, VietnamQuel le: Internationaler Währungsfonds, World Economic Outlook April 2017
Wachstumsprognosen in Prozent
Aufholprozess in Asien setzt sich fort
2,0
1,7
1,6
2,3
2,0
6,6
2,6
7,2
5,0
2,0
1,6
1,5
2,5
1,5
6,2
3,0
7,7
5,2
2017 2018
OECD
Eurozone
Deutschland
USA
Großbritannien
China
Südkorea
ASEAN 5*
► Das globale Wachstum bleibt auf Asien fokussiert.
► Die OECD-Länder verlieren weiter an Gewicht.
+
Indien
145Megatrends
CO2-Emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Durchschnitt
Durch-schnitt
Schwach und aufholend Stark und voranschreitend
Stark und zurückfallend
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: IW Consult (2014)
Der Standortvorteil vieler OECD-Staaten schrumpft
Niveau und Dynamik der Standortqualität
Dynamikindex 1995 - 2015
Niveauindex 2015
Schwach und zurückfallend
► China holt qualitativ zu den etablierten Industrie-ländern auf.
► Gemessen am globalen Durchschnitt haben sich viele OECD-Standorte seit 1995 auf ihrer starken Stellung ausgeruht.
+
146Megatrends
CO2-Emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: EU
Anzahl der EU-Vorschriften für Gesundheit, Sicherheit und Umwelt
Die Regelungsdichte in Europa ist sehr hoch und wird immer dichter
940998
1.084997
1.1051.223
1.386
1.560
1.724
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
► Die ohnehin schon hohe Regelungsdichte in der EU nimmt immer weiter zu.
► Die verschiedenen Ziele und Regulierungen der EU neigen dazu, sich zu widersprechen.
► Um alle Ziele zu ver-folgen, braucht es vor allem eine bessere Regulierung.
Politischer Rahmen
Klimapolitik Regulierungsdichte und Zielkonflikte Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends
+
147
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: EU (TREMOVE)
Schadstoffemissionen in der EU-27 in Tonnen
Der Straßenverkehr ist sauberer geworden – trotz gestiegener Verkehrsmengen
► Seit Ende der 80er Jahre lag der Fokus der Politik auf der Schadstoffreduktion. Schadstoffe sind bei Kontakt gesundheitsgefährdend. Das Treibhausgas CO2 ist somit kein Schadstoff.
► Obwohl die Fahrleistungen stark gewachsen sind, gehen die Schadstoffemissionen der Kfz deutlich zurück.
+
Stickoxide (NOx)Partikelmasse (PM)
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
2000 2010 Prognose 2020
-42%
-28%
-34%
-54%
-36%
-37%0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
2000 2010 Prognose 2020
Pkw
Lkw >7,5t
Sonstige
-62%
-58%
-58%
-41%
-58%
-61%
Politischer Rahmen
Klimapolitik Regulierungsdichte und Zielkonflikte Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends
148
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Verbrauchsentwicklung schwerer Lkw im Praxistest* in Liter Diesel auf 100 km
Der Kraftstoffverbrauch der Fahrzeuge sinkt langsamer
Mit Ankündigung der Euro-I-Norm im Jahr 1988 kam die Verbrauchsreduktion der von der Redaktion getesteten Fahrzeuge fast zum Stillstand.
Die gefahrene Ø Geschwindigkeit stieg aber weiter an und die Schadstoffemissionen nahmen drastisch ab.
Aber: Kein wissenschaftlicher Vergleichstest, denn die von Markt nachgefragten und getesteten Fahrzeuge (Leistung, Fahrzeughöhe) und Verkehrslage auf den Teststraßen (Geschwindigkeit, Staugefahr) haben sich im Zeitablauf stark verändert.
+
* 800 km Rundkurs auf deutschen StraßenQuelle: transaktuell 10/2014
30
35
40
45
50
55
1966 1975 1981 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
1993Euro I
1996Euro II 2001
Euro III 2005Euro IV 2008
Euro V
2011Erste Euro VI Lkw im Test
2010Neue Teststreckemit mehr Steigungen-31%
1977Erster Lkw unter 40 l
1988Zuggewicht auf 40 t erhöht
-8%
Politischer Rahmen
Klimapolitik Regulierungsdichte und Zielkonflikte Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends
149
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: lastauto omnibus, Heft 10/2016
Kraftstoffverbräuche
Nach Streckenart in Litern pro 100 km
Gut 22 Prozent weniger Verbrauch vergleichbarer Lkw
Lkw von 1996: Euro 2Testgewicht: 39.240 kgNennleistung: 435 PSØ Geschwindigkeit: 83,7 km/h
Lkw von 2003: Euro 3Testgewicht: 39.420 kgNennleistung: 456 PSØ Geschwindigkeit: 84,7 km/h
Lkw von 2015: Euro 6Testgewicht: 39.820 kgNennleistung: 449 PSØ Geschwindigkeit: 84,0 km/h
Von der DEKRA begleiteter Straßentest (Dauer: 4 Tage; Fahrleistung: ca. 2.000 km je Testfahrzeug). Die Test-Lkw repräsentieren drei unterschiedliche Fahrzeuggenerationen des selben Herstellers. Die getesteten Fahrzeuge entsprechen in Bezug auf die Leistung den heute üblichen Anforderungen. Moderne Technik und Assistenzsysteme unterstützen den Fahrer beim verbrauchsarmen Fahren.
+
Technische Daten des Tests
Verbrauchsrelevante Faktoren
150Politischer Rahmen
Klimapolitik Regulierungsdichte und Zielkonflikte Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends
46,4
35,6
40,842,6
32,4
37,436,7
27,3
31,9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Schwere Strecke Leichte Strecke Durchschnitt imTest
-21% -23% -22%
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: BMW
CO2-Einsparung pro Euro Herstellungskosten
CO2-Reduktion: Künftig wird es teurer
► Die einfachen und billigen Optionen werden zuerst ergriffen, daher ist die permanente Beschleunigung des Reduktionstempos ein Problem.
► Der Verbrauch lässt sich nicht beliebig reduzieren. Ohne Elektrifizierung werden neue Grenzwerte nicht zu schaffen sein, Hersteller großer Pkw müssen bereits jetzt elektrifizieren.
+
Elektro-auto
Schaltpunkt-anzeige
Voll-Hybrid
Mild-Hybrid Plug-in-
Hybrid
Aerodynamik,Rollwider-stand
Optimiertes Getriebe Brems-
kraftrück-gewinnung
IntelligenteHilfs-systeme
Start-Stop-Funktion
Hoch-präzise Einspritz-systeme
Wärme-manage-ment
Diesel
Volumenhersteller
Premiumhersteller
130 g CO2/km 95 g CO2/km
95 g CO2/km130 g CO2/km
Verkehrssektor
Politischer Rahmen Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends Verkehr heute CO2-Emissionen Straße Effizienz Straße Regulierung Straße
151
Sparsam ist gefragt.*Frage: What is the fuel economy you will expect in your new car as an average range of liter per 100 km?
CO2-Regulation in Europe
* Befragung von 1.500 Neuwageninteressenten in den drei größten Märkten EuropasQuel le: PwC
Aber: Der Markthochlauf stockt
E-Autos: Nur ohne Mehrkosten*Frage: How much would you be prepared to pay for a hybrid drive / electric drive?
9%
7%
24%
34%
26%
Keine Mehrkosten Bis 500 €
501 - 1.000 € 1.001 - 2.000 €
mehr als 2.000 €
13%
41%
35%
8%
2%1%
< 3 Liter 3 - 5 Liter
5,1 - 7 Liter 7,1 - 9 Liter
> 9 Liter Elektroantrieb
Hybride
46%
12%
15%
23%
Elektro
Verkehrssektor
Politischer Rahmen Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends Verkehr heute CO2-Emissionen Straße Effizienz Straße Regulierung Straße
152
153CO2-Regulation in Europe
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, 2017
50%
6%
10%
26%
10%
Energy storage Chemical syntheses Lubricants Glass/Ceramic Other
Demand for lithium in the year 2016 according to specific application
Lithium: Batteries dominate demand
Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
Source: MBI E-Mobility Materials, Nr. 13 2017
58%
33%
40%
16%
0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Graphit Anode S Mangan 99,7% Neodymoxid 99% Terbiumoxid 99,9% Dysprosiumoxid 99%
Relevant raw materials increase in priceChange in prices from January 2017 to March 2018 in per cent
CO2-Regulation in Europe 154Transportation sector
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel len: Bosch, Odyssee Database 2014
Die Ökodesignrichtlinie führt zum Verbot von Stromfressern.
Der Energieverbrauch von Haushalts-geräten ist zwischen 1999 und 2014 stark gefallen.
Ökodesignrichtlinie: Verbot von starken Stromverbrauchern
► Die Ökodesignrichtlinie legt Anforderungen für energieverbrauchsrelevante Produkte fest.► Ein Produkt, welches zu viel Strom verbraucht, darf nicht mehr ausgeliefert werden.► Die Effizienz des Ansatzes ist umstritten. Strom unterliegt bereits dem Emissionshandel
und der Beitrag durch effizientere Haushaltsgeräte ist gering.► Der Verkauf von Lagerbeständen bleibt zulässig. Dieses Schlupfloch führte zum Hamstern von Glühbirnen.
+
Stromaufnahmeleistung von Staubsaugern in Watt
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Durchschnitt
2013
Grenzwert 2014 Grenzwert 2017
-44%
Energieverbrauchssenkungbis zu … Prozent
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Kühlschränke
Gefriergeräte
Waschmaschinen
Geschirrspüler
Trockner
Verbreitung in Europaauf 100 Haushalte kommen … Geräte
105
64
92
56
34
Andere Sektoren
Strom Industrie HaushaltePolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor AusblickMegatrends
155
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Quel le: Hochtief, 2012
Vermeidungskosten pro Tonne CO2in Euro
Beispielfall
Viel Potenzial für relativ geringe Kosten
Mehrfamilienhaus Baujahr 1972
Fläche: 62.030 m2
Finanzierung: Zinssatz 4% über 15 Jahre
► Vermeidungskosten sind immer Ergebnis einer Einzelfallbetrachtung.► Es gilt das Prinzip der fallenden Grenzerträge: Je mehr man einspart, desto teurer wird der nächste Schritt.► Problem: Vollsanierungen lohnen sich ohne Förderung nur selten. Auch energetische Sanierungen scheitern oft an den
Kosten.► Folge: Das Tempo der energetischen Sanierungen ist zu gering. Es müsste etwa verdoppelt werden, um die Ziele der Politik
bis 2020 zu erreichen.
+
1337
223
-54%-61%
-74%
Maßnahme Maßnahme Maßnahme
1 1 2 1 2 3+ + +
CO2-Reduktion
1 Umrüstung von Nachtspeicher auf Zentralheizung
2 Zentrale Trink-wasserwärmung
3 Komplette Bausanierung
Andere Sektoren
Strom Industrie HaushaltePolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor AusblickMegatrends
156