co2 emissions from cars: new policy measures and ... - tokyo, 31 july 2008 1 co2 emissions from...
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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 1
CO2 Emissions from Cars: New Policy Measures and Research Activities in Europe
G. MartiniG. Martini
Institute for Environment and SustainabilityInstitute for Environment and SustainabilityTransportTransport and Air and Air QualityQuality UnitUnit
NTSEL SymposiumTokyo, 31 July 2008
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 2
Where does the JRC fitin the European Commission?
Commissioner PotočnikScience and Research
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
President Barroso 27 Commission Members
Research DG (RTD)
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 3
Research-Based Policy Support
JRC - Robust Science for Policy Making
As a Directorate-General of the European Commission,the JRC provides customer-driven scientific and technical support to Community policy making
Supporting citizen’s security, healthand environmental protection, safety of food and chemicals, alternative energies, nuclear safety, econometrics, prospective technologies…
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 4
The European Climate Change Programme
• The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) was established in 2000 to help identify the most cost-effective EU measures that could enable the EU to meet its target under the Kyoto protocol.
• The Second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) II was launched in October 2005 with the objective of exploring further cost-effective options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 5
European Climate Change ProgrammeFindings
• Transport is the second largest sector of GHG emissions accounting for 19% of EU-25 emissions in 2003.
• Road transport is the biggest transport emission source (94% share).
• Passenger cars alone are responsible for around 12% of EU CO2 emissions.
• Without further measures domestic transport GHG emissions could increase for the EU-15 by almost 31% by 2010 (compared to 1990) and up to 50% by 2020.
Reducing CO2 emissions from new cars is a key priority of EU climate change policy.
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Change in EU-15 GHG emissions by sector base year to 2003, sector projections "with existing" and "with additional measures" base year to 2010
2003
Industrial processes
6.3%
Agriculture9.9%
Transport20.9%
Waste2.3%
Solvents / Other0.2%
Energy use excluding transport
60.3%
-20%
22%
-9%
-4%
31%
-3%
-13%
-32%
-10%
-19%
24%
-3%
-52%
-53%
-15%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Transport
Energy excl. transport
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Transport
Energy excl. transport
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Transport
Energy excl. transport
Proj
ectio
ns w
ith
addi
tiona
l mea
sure
s ba
se
year
-201
0
Past
em
issi
ons
base
ye
ar-2
003
Proj
ectio
ns w
ith e
xist
ing
mea
sure
s ba
se y
ear-
2010
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 7
“Old” EU strategy on CO2 and carsEU objective: To achieve a fleet average of new passenger car of 120 g CO2/km
by 2012 (equivalent to 4.5 l/100 km diesel or 5l/100km gasoline)
• Three pillars strategy:
– Agreements with car industry
– Consumer information : EU Directive 1999/94/EC requires the display on each new car of a label showing its fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
– Fiscal measures: the Commission has proposed EU legislation aimed at including a CO2 element in national car taxes.
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Agreement with manufacturers
• Commitments have been concluded with the European (ACEA), the Japanese (JAMA) and Korean (KAMA) automobile industries.
• Same CO2 emission objective: 140 gCO2/km (to be achieved by 2009 by JAMA and KAMA and by 2008 by ACEA).
• Means of achievement: achievement of the CO2 target 'mainly' by technological developments.
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Progress so far…
• During the period 1998 to 2004, the car industry associations (ACEA, JAMA and KAMA) substantially met all the obligations stated in their commitments
• The reduction in CO2 emissions has been overwhelmingly achieved by technological developments (in particular diesel)
• The impact of the measures taken under the other two pillars (labelling/taxation) has been limited
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Voluntary Commitments: major efforts still needed…12.4% reduction in 2004 compared to 1995, out of total 25% required by 2008/9…
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
g C
O2/
km, a
nnua
l ave
rage
ACEA JAMA KAMA EU-15
ACEA (required) JAMA (required) KAMA (required)
EU objective: 120 gCO2/km
EU15 level in 1995:186 gCO2/km Voluntary
commitments: 140 g CO2/km in 2008/9
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 11
“Old” EU strategy on CO2 and cars
Results
• The strategy has brought only limited progress towards achieving the target of 120g CO2/km by 2012.
• Between 1995 and 2004 average emissions from new cars sold in the EU-15 fell by 12.4%, from 186g CO2/km to 163g CO2/km.
• Over the same period new cars sold in the EU became significantly bigger and more powerful.
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 12
Fleet evolution
ACEA's "wave-effect" of CO2 categories towards enhanced fuel efficiency (g/km)
8090
100110120130
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Mass Power Capacity CO2
05
10152025303540
120+le
ss121
-140
141-16
0161
-180
181-20
0201
-250
251-30
0301
-350
>350
CO2 Categories (g/km)
. % o
f new
car
regi
stra
tions
.
199519961997199819992000200120022003 Physical ACEA Fleet Characteristics (1995=100)Physical ACEA Fleet Characteristics (1995=100)
(source: Commission/ACEA joint report on CO(source: Commission/ACEA joint report on CO22 and cars, reporting year 2003)and cars, reporting year 2003)
1995
= 1
00
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 13
Review of the EU strategy (2005-06)
• As part of the European Climate Change Programme, in the last years theCommission carried out a review of the strategy
• The conclusion of the review is that the voluntary approach has delivered a solid CO2 reduction but has not been as successful as hoped.
• Given the slower than expected progress to date, the 120g CO2/km target will not be met by 2012 without additional measures
Revised EU strategy on CO2 emissions from cars
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 14
“Revised” EU strategy on CO2 and carsMain measures (1):
• EU legislation to reduce CO2 emissions from new cars and vans.
• Target: : 120g CO2/km by 2012 (average emissions from new cars sold in the EU-27)
• Improvements in motor technology would have to reduce average emissions to no more than 130g/km, while complementary measures (more efficient MAC, low rolling resistance tyres,…) would contribute a further emissions cut of up to 10g/km.
• For vans, the fleet average objectives would be 175g by 2012 and 160g by 2015, compared with 201g in 2002.
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 15
“Revised” EU strategy on CO2 and carsMain measures (2):
• Support for research efforts aimed at further reducing emissions from new cars to an average of 95g CO2/km by 2020.
• Measures to promote the purchase of fuel efficient vehicles (amendment to the car labelling directive to make it more effective and by encouraging Member States that levy road tax to base it on cars' CO2 emissions.)
• An EU code of good practice on car marketing and advertising to promote more sustainable consumption patterns.
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The proposed new regulation
• The draft legislation defines a limit value curve of permitted emissions of CO2 for new vehicles (from 2012) according to the mass of the vehicle.
0
50
100
150
200
250
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Vehicle mass [kg]
CO
2 em
issi
on li
mit
valu
e [g
/km
]
Limit value curve
130 g/km
Permitted specific emissions of CO2 =
130 + a × (M – M0)
Where: M = mass in kg
M0 = 1289.0 a = 0.0457
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The proposed new regulation
• Manufacturers will still be able to make cars with emissions above the limit value curve provided these are balanced by cars which are below the curve.
• Manufacturers can group together to form a pool in order to meet the emissions targets
• Excess emissions premium if the average emission levels are above the limit value curve. – Number of grams per kilometre (g/km) that an average vehicle sold by the manufacturer
is above the curve, multiplied by the number of vehicles sold by the manufacturer. A premium of €20 € per g/km has been proposed for the first year (2012), rising to €35 in 2013, €60 in 2014, and €95 in 2015 and thereafter.
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How are the manufacturers placed in relation to their targets?
100
150
200
250
300
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700average mass [kg]
aver
age
CO
2 [g
/km
]
Fiat
Porschet
Subaru
Suzuki
DaimlerChrysler
BMWMitsubishi
Ford
Mazda
Hyundai
Volkswagen
Nissan
PSA Renault
Toyota
GM
2006 trendline
average mass
Honda
160
Average CO2 emissions of new cars manufactured in 2006. PSA Peugeot-Citroen 16
Renault 20
Fiat 22
Honda 25
Toyota 25
GM 28
Ford 30
Volkswagen 31
Hyundai 32
Nissan 38
Suzuki 41
Mitsubishi 41
Mazda 43
BMW 45
DaimlerChrysler 46
Subaru 81
Porsche 138Further progress required to attain the targets (g/km)
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 19
Article 7aGreenhouse Gas emission reduction
• From 1 January 2009, monitoring and report the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from transport fuels.
• From 1 January 2011, suppliers of fuels for road transport and non-road mobile machinery have to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas emissions from those fuels.
– The reduction shall equal an additional 1% of the emissions in 2010 per year for each calendar year up to and including 2020. The level of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy reported in 2020 shall be no greater than 90% of the level reported in 2010.
Additional measures: the fuel quality directive proposal
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Additional measures: bioenergy strategy
Brussels, 23.1.2008COM(2008) 19 final
DIRECTIVE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources
Article 3Targets for the use of energy from renewable sources
• ….• 3. Each Member State shall ensure that the share of energy from
renewable sources in transport in 2020 is at least 10% of final consumption of energy in transport in that Member State.
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On-going research activities at the JRC
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 22
Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context
A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWEObjectives:
• Establish, in a transparent and objective manner, a consensual well-to-wheels energy use and GHG emissions assessment of a wide range of automotive fuels and powertrains relevant to Europe in 2010 and beyond.
• Consider the viability of each fuel pathway and estimate the associated macro-economic costs.
• Have the outcome accepted as a reference by all relevant stakeholders.
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WellWell--ToTo--Wheels AnalysisWheels Analysis of different of different Fuel / Vehicle Fuel / Vehicle conceptsconcepts (2010+)(2010+)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Energy MJ/ 100km
GH
G g
CO
2eq/
km
A shift from Fossil Fuels A shift from Fossil Fuels towards Renewable towards Renewable
Fuels is Energy Fuels is Energy DemandingDemanding
Renewable FuelsBio-Diesel, Bio-EthanolSynthetic Bio-fuels (wood)Hydrogen ex-Wind/ex-Bio
Crude OilPresent Situation
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GHG Mitigation Costs - Biofuels
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500
€/t CO2eq. avoided
€ s
pent
/ to
nne
foss
il fu
el s
ubst
itute
d
Liquid fuels from wood: integrated in paper mills
Liquid fuels from wood:free-standing processes
hydrogenpathwaysOIL PRICE 50 EUROs/barrel
Compressed biogas
cost
of r
epla
cing
die
sel o
r gas
olin
e (€
/tonn
e)
Conventional biofuels in EU
Ethanol from straw
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500
€/t CO2eq. avoided
€ s
pent
/ to
nne
foss
il fu
el s
ubst
itute
d
Liquid fuels from wood: integrated in paper mills
Liquid fuels from wood:free-standing processes
hydrogenpathwaysOIL PRICE 50 EUROs/barrel
Compressed biogas
cost
of r
epla
cing
die
sel o
r gas
olin
e (€
/tonn
e)
Conventional biofuels in EU
Ethanol from straw
WTW PROJECT
•V1 published in 2003
•V3 expected Q1 2008
•V4 scheduled Q2 2010
High Policy Impact:
•DG’s: TREN,ENV,AGRI
•IEA
•EEA
•OECD
•EU Parliament (STOA)
Source: JRC-IES/CONCAWE/EUCAR
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 25
Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context
A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
The study report is available on the WEB:
http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW
For questions / inquiries / requests / notes to the consortium, please use the centralised mail address:
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 26
Impact of ethanol content in gasoline on vehicle emissions and fuel consumption
A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
Objectives
1. To define a sound and repeatable way of measuring the short-term direct effect of fuels on regulated emissions and fuel consumption.
2. To evaluate the impact of oxygenate, especially ethanol, on vehicle emissions and fuel consumption
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 27
Impact of ethanol content in gasoline on vehicle emissions and fuel consumption
Fuel Matrix
1. Base Fuel, 95 RON hydrocarbon-only fuel2. E10 Fuel, containing 10% v/v ethanol, matched in
VP and octane to Fuel 13. ETBE blend, 95 RON4. E10 Fuel, containing 10% v/v ethanol but splash
blended5. Hydrocarbon-only fuel matching the octane of
Fuel 4, the E10 splash-blended fuel6. E5, containing 5% v/v ethanol but splash-
blended.Oxygen
Octane(RVP)
1 23
45
6
Oxygen
Octane(RVP)
1 23
45
6
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 28
Impact of ethanol content in gasoline on vehicle emissions and fuel consumption
Test vehicles
The objective of this testing is to evaluate fuel effects on vehicles of current technology, so that the results can be related to the existing vehicle parc
1. A PFI engine that is insensitive to octane2. A VVT vehicle to check the effect of throttling3. A vehicle optimised for 98 RON in order to take advantage of a higher
octane number and the cooling effect of ethanol
Programme started in July 2008
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 29
PEMS and PAMS Activities
PEMS: Portable Emission Measurement Systems
PAMS: Portable Activity Measurement Systems
Objective: to collect data on real world emissions and fuel consumption as well as on typical driving patterns to be used for future legislation development (e.g.: legislative driving cycle review)
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 30
Portable Activity Monitoring Systems (PAMS)
50 m
m (
1.9
6”)
GPRS moduleExecutes a script for managing all the wireless connection workload
Flash memory(SD format)
µcontroller
K-line and CAN interfaces
112 mm (4.40”)
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PAMS
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 32
LDV PEMS activity: test routes
City Rural
Test protocol for the exhaust gas measurements is the one developed for HDVs
Section City Rural HighwayDistance [km] 17 13 35
Average speed [km/h]
11 49 94
Average altitude [m]
120 241 275
Average temperature
[°C]
18 10 11
Characteristic of the test routesHighway
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 33
Integrated average emissions
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
CITY RURAL HIGHWAY
NOx
Emis
sion
s [g
/km
]
SCUDOVW VAN
050
100150200250300350400450
CITY RURAL HIGHWAY
CO2
Emis
sion
s [g
/km
]SCUDOVW VAN
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 34
Summary and Conclusions
• The transport sector is one of the biggest and still growing sources of GHG emissions
• Due to the increasing concerns for the consequences of the GHG emissions, the European Commission has proposed a new strategy to increase the fuel efficiency of vehicles
• The JRC is involved in many research activities in this field
• Thanks to its independency from any private and national interest, the JRC can play a unique role in providing in support of the development of the European policy to reduce GHG emissions from transport
JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008 35
Thank you for your attention!