closing the deal - act the deal. presenters. ... • graduate program: post -baccalaureate, single...

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Frontier Strategies for Ensuring Maximum Yield from Your Admitted Student Pool

Closing the Deal

Presenters

Robert AlexanderVice President for Enrollment and CommunicationsMillsaps College

Madeleine RhyneerVice President for Enrollment and MarketingSusquehanna University

Deanna VossDean of Undergraduate AdmissionsNova Southeastern University

3

Presentation Road Map

1. Industry Context2. Millsaps College

3. Susquehanna University

4. Nova Southeastern University

4

A Stalling Growth Engine

-0.3%

-1.1%

0.4%0.7%

0.4% 0.2%

1.3%1.6%

-0.3%-0.6%

2013 2014 2015 2016

PrivatesPublics

Undergraduate and Graduate/Professional Enrollment,Entering Classes 2013-2016

Percentage Change in Enrollment from Previous YearNot-for-Profit Four-Year Colleges and Universities

Undergraduate Only,Entering Class 2016

Source: National Student Clearinghouse, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.

5

An Application-Growth Mandate

IncreasingFreshmanEnrollment

DecreasingFreshmanEnrollment

9.8%average growth in applicant pool per year

9.2%average growth in admit pool per year

2.5%average growth in applicant pool per year

2.0%average growth in admit pool per year

Change in applicant pool

Change in admit pool

55%

45%

Change in Freshman EnrollmentNot-for-Profit Four-Year Colleges and Universities, 2008-2014

Source: EAB|Royall analysis of IPEDS data.

6

Creating “Altitude” for Pursuit of Enrollment Goals

FTFT Enrollment

Desired headcount

Lower Higher

Higher Lower

Enrollment Goals• NTR/student• Average test score• Demographic mix

Yield Rate

Application Volume: Higher Lower

7

Students Playing the Field

24%

2004

46%

2015

Students Applying to 6+ Schools2004 Versus 2015

Source: Eagan K, et al., “The American Freshman: National Norms,” Higher Education Research Institute, 2015.

8

Yield Rates in Steady Decline

Average Yield RateNot-for-Profit Four-Year Colleges and Universities


15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Publics

Privates

9

An Increased Processing Burden

Change in Admits per EnrollmentNot-for-Profit Four-Year Colleges and Universities, 2004 Versus 2014

1.30xincrease in the number of students who need to be admitted per enrollment

1.49xincrease in the number of students who need to be admitted per enrollment

Publics Privates


10

A Yield-Management MarathonYield Calendar, Before Early FAFSA

Source: EAB|Royall research and analysis.

Dec

embe

r

Nov

embe

r

Oct

ober

Sep

tem

ber

Aug

ust

Apr

il

Mar

ch

Febr

uary

Janu

ary

Applications

Admissions

FAFSA released

Aid packaged

Yield efforts

Anti-melt efforts

May

11

A Yield-Management MarathonYield Calendar, After Early FAFSA

Applications

Admissions

FAFSA released

Aid packaged

Yield efforts

Anti-melt efforts

Dec

embe

r

Nov

embe

r

Oct

ober

Sep

tem

ber

Aug

ust

Apr

il

Mar

ch

Febr

uary

Janu

ary

May

Source: EAB|Royall research and analysis.

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A Foregrounded Value ConversationAdmit and Aid Offer Calendar, Before and After Early FAFSA

Admission Offer

Before

Decision Made

Aid Package

~ 2 months

Admission Offer + Aid Package

After

Decision Made

~ 7 months

13


1. Industry Context

2. Millsaps College3. Susquehanna University


14

Millsaps College in BriefA Progressive Institution in a Capital City in the South

A regional liberal arts hubUnique combination of undergraduate degree programs in the humanities, arts and sciences, with undergraduate, and graduate e-business programs

Delivering valueHighest four-year graduation rate of any school in Mississippi (1.5 times the rate of any other school) and among the highest in the region. Ninety-five percent of Millsaps graduates are employed or enrolled in graduate/professional school six months after graduation.

Vital statistics (Carnegie Classification)• Graduate program: post-baccalaureate, single program, business• Enrollment profile: very high undergraduate• Undergrad profile: four-year, full-time, more selective, lower transfer-in• Size and setting: four-year, very small, highly residential

15

A Challenging Context

$70,004

$50,502

$36,919

Maryland (Highest) US Median Mississippi(Lowest)

Median Household IncomeBy State, 2014

Tuition and FeesFour-Year, Not-for-Profit Colleges and Universities, Mississippi (2015-2016)

$7,473

$35,510

Mississippi Median Millsaps

Highest tuition in Mississippi

16

An Enrollment Turnaround

214 224 211171

236 223265

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-20%

+55%67% increase in net tuition revenue(2013-2016)

Mean ACT Score 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.9 25.5 25.9

% Minority 19.2% 23.2% 28.9% 22.8% 22.0% 30.5% 34.4%

First-Time, Full-Time EnrollmentMillsaps College, Entering Classes 2010-2016

17

A Closer Look at Recent TrendsCore Enrollment MetricsMillsaps College, Entering Classes 2014-2017

04080120160200240280

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Admits Enrollments

Average Enrolled HS GPA 3.72 3.69 3.59 3.64 3.68

Yield Rate 19% 14% 12% 10% 12%

Total NTR (Millions) $1.79 $2.62 $2.35 $2.78 $2.75

Adm

its

Enrollments

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Six Lessons on Yield

1. Engage students on value2. Know your constituencies3. Educate your stakeholders4. Foster collaboration5. Make the most of social media6. Calibrate your ambitions

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Engage Students on ValueForegrounding Value Messages in Our MarketingFour-Year Graduation Guarantee Highlighted on Millsaps Website

“If you meet all of the above conditions but are unable to graduate in four years, Millsaps College will waive additional tuition and mandatory fees for courses required for graduation. That’s our guarantee to you.”

Giving Value Conversations an Extra Level of AttentionStudents with Value-Focused Questions Called by Me Personally

FinancialQuestion

Rob Alexander

ValueQuestion

Admission Counselor

20

Know Your ConstituenciesRepresentative ConcernsBy Demographic Segment

First-generation college-goer

Child of college graduates

How can we negotiate the best

possible deal?

I thought a Pell Grant meant free

tuition…

21

Educate Your StakeholdersGuiding PrinciplesFor Engaging Questions Around Yield

Contextualize relative to broader market forcesWhile there’s plenty you can do to inflect yield rate, it’s mostly a result of industry-wide factors beyond any individual school’s control.

Focus on the metrics that matterFor most schools, yield rate is not consequential in the same way that other measures of performance, e.g., net tuition revenue, are.

Understand your audience(s)Several key constituencies you serve have a principled interest in yield rate—university boards and bond rating agencies, for example. It is up to you to effectively contextualize yield rate for these audiences.

22

Foster CollaborationTwo Cases in Point

Coaches

Admitted Student A

Unremarkable athlete determined

to play sports

Admitted Student B

Gifted athlete at risk of choosing a

competing school

Enlisted to call students from their home regions

Impresses admitted students Builds trustee empathy for EM

Trustees

23

Make the Most of Social MediaCase in PointFacebook Posts Give Us a Read on Student Predisposition

Student posts to Millsaps’ admitted-students

Facebook page

Student flagged as having elevated likelihood to yield,

receives counselor call

24

Calibrate Your Ambitions

OptimizedYield Management

“Over-Optimized” Yield Management

Enrollment Rate

Yield Rate

Diminishing returns due to increased melt

25


1. Industry Context

2. Millsaps College

3. Susquehanna University4. Nova Southeastern University

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Susquehanna in Brief

96.5%of grads working or in grad school in 6 months

8Fulbright winners in the past four years

99%of graduating students finish in four years or less

2,205total student population

12:1Student-to-faculty ratio

100% undergrad

27

Our Recent Enrollment HistoryCore Enrollment Metrics (Entering Classes 2014-2017)

520

560

600

640

680

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Applications

Enrolled Freshmen

Average Enrolled HS GPA 3.34 3.36 3.47 3.49 3.55

Yield Rate 19% 14% 12% 10% 12%

Total NTR (Millions) $1.79 $2.62 $2.35 $2.78 $2.75

Largest-ever freshman class for Susquehanna

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Fostering FocusSusquehanna’s Yield Follow-Up Triage Mechanism

Tailored yield follow-up

Likelihood-to-yield score

Yield analytics

Data from recruitment interactions

Admitted student

f(x)

Includes regression modeling

Includes survey responses and communication

metrics

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Pipeline Analytics in Action

Deposited Medium Priority High Priority Low Priority Deprioritize

Incorporate into melt-prevention

efforts

Standard communications +

opportunistic personal

engagement per counselor availability

Initial focus for personal

engagement

Standard communications +

personal engagement after addressing high-

and medium-priority prospects

No personal engagement

recommended

Follow-Up with Admitted Students Tailored to Likelihood to Yield

Decreasing Likelihood to Yield

Outreach Intensity

30

A More Manageable Task

Admitted StudentsBy Score-Based Follow-Up Intensity

3%

26%

19%

6%

45%

Medium PriorityHigh PriorityLow PriorityDepositedDeprioritize

Yield follow-up focused on <50% of admitted students

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Winning Them Over

100admitted students engaged by me personally via phone and/or text message for EC 2017

Double last year’s number

“How Can I Help?”Triage Enables a New Level of Personal Attention

Fostering Early EngagementCreating Additional Touch Points in an Extended Yield Season

November February

First financial aid offers delivered

First event of the season held for

deposited students

Two months earlier than previously

32


1. Industry Context

2. Millsaps College

3. Susquehanna University


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Some Context on Me

June 20151995

Professional affiliations

Past president and treasurer of SACAC, current active contributor to SACAC and NACAC

A Simplified Career Timeline

University of Miami

Dean of Undergraduate

Admissions

Nova Southeastern University

Associate Dean of Enrollment Management and Executive Director of

Admission

Assistant Director of Admission

A new position at NSU

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Nova Southeastern in Brief

• > 24,000 students• Campuses in Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Miami,

Miramar, Orlando, Palm Beach, Tampa, and San Juan• A “high research activity” Carnegie-classification school• One of 37 schools nationally awarded Carnegie’s Community

Engagement Classification• The largest private, not-for-profit university in the US meeting

Department of Education criteria for Hispanic-Serving Institutions

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400500600700800900100011001200

2000

4000

6000

8000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Applications

Deposits

Fall Freshman Enrolled SAT 1098 1163 1145 1131 -

Fall Freshman Enrollment 661 598 683 969 -

45%increase

since 2013

36


400500600700800900100011001200

2000

4000

6000

8000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Applications

Deposits



46%increase since 2013

37


400500600700800900100011001200

2000

4000

6000

8000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Applications

Deposits



>5%increase in yield rate

from 2016-171

1 Percentage-point basis

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Students Seeking a More Personal ApproachReasons Non-Yielding Students Chose a Different Institution

0%

20%

40%

60%

More Financial Aid Quicker AdmitDecision

More Contact Post-Admit

Took More PersonalInterest

Nova Southeastern Royall Privates Royall Publics

An opportunity for NSU

NSU performing well on core recruitment metrics

NSU had good contact volume but engagement could be better

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Changing Tack

Relationship-focused

Coordinated

Planned

StrategicYield Management

Laissez-Faire Yield Management

Transactional

Autonomous

Improvised

Limits of this approach became apparent under high application-growth scenario

HighLowApplication growth

Yield management

Two Eras of Yield Management at NSU

40

An All-Points ApproachAudiences and Channels for Yield Communications

Email

Student Parents

Paper mail

Social media

Campus events

Remote events

Phone contact

In-person interviews

Multi-Audience

Multichannel

Text messages

41

Appropriate IntensityTypical Number of Communications Received Across Yield SeasonUnder New Yield-Management Approach

25scheduled communications are received by parents

95scheduled communications are received by students

42

Boosting Impact of New and Existing AssetsBetter Coordinating a Rich Array of Options for Engaging Admitted Students

Social mediaNSU has dedicated Facebook pages for both admitted students and their parents. Core yield messages are communicated by NSU via content it posts to these pages.

Mail and email campaignsNSU uses coordinated, mutually reinforcing print and email campaigns, specifically promoting yield, to engage parents and students. Purpose-built content is used for each audience.

On-campus interviewsNSU has an unusually broad range of special academic programs and scholarship opportunities, most of which require an in-person interview. This face-to-face contact is a potent builder of engagement.

Parallel communication tracksNSU’s approach to yield communications includes “broadcast” messages—the same for all students or parents, and mostly focused on transactional information—and totally individualized communications, personalized to each recipient.

43

Truly Understanding Barriers to Enrollment Faced by StudentsMelt-Prevention Efforts Based on a Personalized Approach

“Tell us what’s standing in the way of you joining us.”

Carefully Tracking Deposited Students Through Milestones to Enrollment

Deposit Final HS transcript

sent

Registered for courses

Residence hall

contract

Registered for orientation

Focusing on High-Risk Students

e.g., students with large gaps between

aid package and EFC

Creative Problem Solving Based on Careful Listening

“Here’s how we can help.”

44

Questions?

Robert AlexanderVice President for Enrollment and CommunicationsMillsaps College

Madeleine RhyneerVice President for Enrollment and MarketingSusquehanna University

Deanna VossDean of Undergraduate AdmissionsNova Southeastern University

closing the deal - act the deal. presenters. ... • graduate program: post -baccalaureate, single...

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